Global Autonomous Ground Vehicle (AGV) Developments – June & July 2025

Major Industry Announcements (June–July 2025)

Waymo’s Expansion and Tesla’s Trials: Alphabet’s Waymo continued to scale up its robotaxi operations. In mid-June, Waymo applied for a New York City permit to begin autonomous car tests (with safety drivers initially) – marking NYC’s first AV pilot if approved reuters.com. Waymo also expanded its service area in California’s Bay Area after new state approvals reuters.com. As of June, Waymo operates ~1,500 self-driving vehicles giving over 250,000 rides per week across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin reuters.com. Meanwhile, Tesla prepared to kick off limited trials of a robotaxi service with as few as 10 cars in late June – the company’s first public foray into autonomous ride-hailing reuters.com. (Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long promised a robotaxi network, and this small-scale pilot signaled an initial step.) At the Aspen Ideas Festival on June 27, Ford CEO Jim Farley made news by endorsing LiDAR for safer self-driving, implicitly critiquing Tesla’s camera-only approach. “Where the camera will be completely blinded, the LiDAR system will see exactly what’s in front of you,” Farley said, underscoring Ford’s view that a mix of LiDAR, cameras and radar is needed for reliability evxl.co. (Tesla’s Musk has scoffed that competitors’ LiDAR-based cars cost “way mo’ money,” but rivals like Ford are prioritizing sensor redundancy for safety evxl.co.)

GM Cruise and Others: After a turbulent period, General Motors dramatically restructured its Cruise AV unit earlier in 2025 – halting funding for Cruise’s robotaxi program and laying off about 50% of Cruise staff reuters.com. Instead of pursuing robotaxi fleets, GM is integrating Cruise’s technology into driver-assistance systems for personal vehicles (enhancing its Super Cruise and upcoming Ultra Cruise features) reuters.com reuters.com. This shift followed safety setbacks in 2023 and reflects a broader industry realignment toward near-term applications. Other AV startups have sought partnerships or new markets: Uber is leaning on international allies to deploy robotaxis. In May, Uber announced a partnership with China’s Momenta to launch a robotaxi service in an unspecified European city by early 2026 thebambooworks.com – expanding on Uber’s existing alliance with WeRide (another Chinese AV firm) to roll out robotaxis in the United Arab Emirates thebambooworks.com. These deals indicate ride-hailing platforms are teaming up with tech providers globally to accelerate autonomous ride services.

Robotaxis Worldwide – China and Beyond: Chinese companies have made aggressive gains. Guangzhou-based WeRide launched China’s first 24-hour robotaxi network in mid-May, running autonomous taxis around the clock on eight routes in downtown Guangzhou thebambooworks.com. The service covers major hubs (e.g. Canton Tower, the airport) and lets users hail rides via app at any time. WeRide touts this full-day operation in a Tier-1 city as a milestone toward large-scale commercialization thebambooworks.com thebambooworks.com. Rival Baidu Apollo has begun all-day robotaxi service in Wuhan, and Pony.ai runs driverless taxi routes in Guangzhou (though not yet through late-night hours) thebambooworks.com. Chinese AV operators are also exporting their tech: Reuters reports Baidu, Pony.ai and WeRide are expanding into the Middle East, with plans for services in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Saudi Arabia in 2025 reuters.com. There are even hints that Tesla (which lacks robotaxi deployments so far) may join a Saudi autonomous ride project reuters.com. These moves align with a trend of Gulf states embracing AVs. In Southeast Asia, Baidu’s Apollo is eyeing launches in Singapore and Malaysia as early as late 2025 bloomberg.com. Overall, China’s robotaxi sector is surging – Baidu alone has 500 AVs across 10 Chinese cities and leads in total rides given globenewswire.com. Analysts note China is now rivaling or even outpacing the U.S. in robotaxi scale and consumer uptake restofworld.org.

Commercial & Last-Mile Delivery Vehicles: The autonomous delivery sector saw significant deployments and deals. In late June, Serve Robotics (an Uber spin-off) launched its sidewalk delivery robots in Atlanta, its fourth U.S. city after Los Angeles, Miami, and Dallas globenewswire.com globenewswire.com. The small four-wheeled robots ferry meals for Uber Eats and even for chain partners like Shake Shack in a 50,000-resident service area of Midtown and Downtown Atlanta globenewswire.com. Serve’s friendly-looking bots (with “eye” lights) are integrated into Uber’s app; Uber’s autonomous delivery ops lead noted this is their first autonomous delivery deployment in Atlanta, part of making food delivery as convenient as possible globenewswire.com. Serve plans to deploy up to 2,000 robots by end of 2025 across multiple cities globenewswire.com – a major scale-up aimed at reducing last-mile costs and congestion.

On the heavier vehicle side, autonomous trucking is moving from pilot to productization. Startup Plus AI – which develops self-driving systems for semi-trucks – announced plans in June to go public via a $1.2 billion SPAC merger emergingtechbrew.com. Plus’s VP of public policy, speaking on June 3, expressed optimism that U.S. regulators will establish a single national AV framework, calling autonomous trucking “maybe the one bipartisan issue” in Washington emergingtechbrew.com emergingtechbrew.com. Competitor Aurora Innovation began running a driverless freight service in Texas this spring on the busy Dallas–Houston route. By May, Aurora’s trucks had safely completed ~6,000 miles without a human driver on board dmagazine.com dmagazine.com. However, in a twist, Aurora in late May agreed to put a human “observer” back in the cab at the request of its manufacturing partner PACCAR, which wasn’t fully comfortable yet with unmanned operation dmagazine.com dmagazine.com. (Aurora emphasizes the safety driver is only an observer and that the autonomous system still does all the driving dmagazine.com. PACCAR’s stance – “we will not commercialize anything that is not proven super safe” – highlights the cautious approach of OEMs dmagazine.com.) This underscores that trust and validation remain hurdles even as the tech proves itself.

Mid-mile delivery AVs also notched progress. Gatik, known for its autonomous box trucks shuttling goods for Walmart, expanded its commercial operations. After removing safety drivers from its Arkansas routes in 2021, Gatik in 2024 secured a $30 million investment from Isuzu and is co-developing mass-produced driverless delivery trucks for launch by 2027 gatik.ai betakit.com. In June 2025, industry news highlighted that Gatik’s partnership with Isuzu will yield dedicated Class 3–6 autonomous trucks, marking one of the first OEM-autonomy production deals evmagazine.com roadtoautonomy.com. Likewise, Nuro, a pioneer in unmanned delivery pods, unveiled a new sensor suite this summer (with improved cameras, LiDAR and radars) to boost safety in its next-gen vehicles thelastdriverlicenseholder.com. Nuro’s focus in 2025 has shifted toward licensing its self-driving tech to others sacra.com after deploying grocery delivery robots in Houston and Phoenix in prior years. Overall, contact-free delivery robots – from warehouse forklifts to sidewalk rovers – are increasingly mainstream, a trend only accelerated by labor shortages and demand for faster e-commerce fulfillment.

Defense and Military AGV Developments

Autonomous ground vehicles are transforming military logistics and combat tactics, as seen in Ukraine and beyond. In early July, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence deployed its largest unmanned ground vehicle to date, a locally-built UGV called the “Protector.” The Protector is a robust four-wheel-drive robotic platform designed for frontline support – it can haul 700 kg of payload up to 400 km and even evacuate wounded soldiers nextgendefense.com nextgendefense.com. Powered by a unique combustion engine for all-terrain endurance, it can mount remote weapons or electronic warfare kits as needed. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister hailed this deployment as “a new branch of development of ground robotic complexes,” aiming to get advanced tech “closer to the trenches” and take soldiers out of harm’s way nextgendefense.com nextgendefense.com. The CEO of Ukrainian Armor (the vehicle’s manufacturer) stressed that the Protector is cost-effective and quick to produce – crucial for Ukraine’s fast-moving battlefields – and that its “main mission…is to save the lives of our soldiers during logistics operations” by reliably ferrying supplies through dangerous areas nextgendefense.com. This real-world use of UGVs in the Russia-Ukraine war is accelerating development of battle-ready ground robots.

Eastern Europe also saw innovation: In late May, Czech defense firm LPP unveiled the “Hornet” UGV – a hybrid-electric unmanned ground drone for military logistics thedefensepost.com. Hornet can autonomously navigate rough, GPS-denied terrain carrying munitions or evacuating casualties, using onboard LiDAR, cameras and AI for obstacle avoidance thedefensepost.com thedefensepost.com. It’s modular too: the 2.8-meter Hornet can be reconfigured for roles ranging from combat scout to CBRN hazard detection thedefensepost.com. Notably, the Hornet has been field-tested in Ukraine, and Ukraine is reportedly considering it for their forces thedefensepost.com – another example of Ukraine adopting off-the-shelf UGV tech. NATO allies are also supplying unmanned vehicles: in late June, the Netherlands agreed to send 20 Rheinmetall-made “Ermine” ground vehicles to Ukraine thedefensepost.com. (The Ermine is a small armored transport that can potentially operate remotely; this deal reflects the urgency of mechanized logistics in Ukraine’s defense.)

The U.S. military, for its part, is laying groundwork for common UGV architectures. In May, the U.S. Navy (on behalf of the Marine Corps) issued a solicitation for an open-source UGV control architecture defensescoop.com. The Marines envision “multi-purpose” unmanned ground vehicles for tasks like resupply, ISR, comms relay, and force protection defensescoop.com. The contract seeks modular sensor fusion and autonomy algorithms that can be integrated on different small/medium UGV platforms defensescoop.com. Officials say the goal is to free Marines from “drudgery work” and dangerous first-contact roles by using robots as the “first to make contact with the enemy” in certain scenarios defensescoop.com defensescoop.com. In essence, the Pentagon wants standardized, upgradable brains for its future land robots – echoing the military’s broader shift toward open systems and AI-driven capabilities. This program runs through 2027 and is part of the USMC’s plan to field a family of UGVs in small test batches, iterating as technology improves defensescoop.com defensescoop.com.

Finally, international defense showcases continue to feature AGVs. At the IDEX 2025 expo, Estonia’s Milrem Robotics (lead on Europe’s iMUGS project) was preparing to unveil the “HAVOC” 8×8 combat UGV – a heavily armed robotic vehicle for battlefield support defenseadvancement.com. And in the Middle East, unmanned ground turrets and border patrol robots are drawing interest as countries invest in AI-enhanced defense. In summary, militaries worldwide are embracing ground drones for logistics and combat, driven by real combat needs in Ukraine and rapid tech advances. The focus is on UGVs that can reduce risk to troops while working in teams with manned units – a true force multiplier.

AGVs in Agriculture and Industrial Automation

Autonomy on the farm and in the warehouse accelerated in mid-2025. Agricultural robotics saw both tech advances and regulatory friction. On the innovation side, startups and equipment giants are rolling out self-driving farm machinery. Seattle-based Carbon Robotics began pilot deployments of its “AutoTractor” retrofit kit, which turns existing tractors (John Deere 6R/8R models) into autonomous, 24/7 workhorses globalagtechinitiative.com globalagtechinitiative.com. Launched in spring 2025, Carbon’s system uses cameras, AI and remote oversight to handle tasks like weeding, plowing, and mowing without a driver globalagtechinitiative.com globalagtechinitiative.com. Notably, it pairs with Carbon’s LaserWeeder implement to zap weeds autonomously, and the company says human supervisors can intervene via a remote operations center if the AI encounters an anomaly globalagtechinitiative.com globalagtechinitiative.com. Carbon’s CEO Paul Mikesell quipped that too often farm autonomy has been “overpromised and underdelivered,” and emphasized their kit’s design was shaped by farmers’ input to be simple and reliable globalagtechinitiative.com. Traditional manufacturers are following suit: John Deere showcased two new autonomous tractors and an AI-driven combine at CES 2025, and is offering factory-installed autonomy kits on flagship models reuters.com reuters.com. Likewise, startup Monarch Tractor began shipping its electric MK-V tractors with an “AutoDrive” feature for self-driving in specific tasks (like automating repetitive dairy farm routines).

However, regulations lag technology in agriculture. In California – America’s largest farm state – fully driverless farm equipment is still essentially illegal. As of mid-2025, California farmers are forbidden from using driverless tractors or robotic harvesters on public roads or open fields until laws catch up x.com. This ban, a holdover from older safety codes, has sparked an outcry from ag innovators. State officials began re-examining the policy in early 2025, with consultations to revise rules and allow autonomous farm equipment under certain safety standards logistics.org.uk. (The state launched a public comment process in June on what vehicle safety principles should apply to self-driving farm machines logistics.org.uk, as well as how to regulate marketing terms like “autonomous” or “self-driving” in farm equipment ads logistics.org.uk.) Growers argue it’s inconsistent that California permits driverless cars on city streets but not autonomous tractors in orchards nbcbayarea.com. There are signs of change on the horizon – a bill to ease restrictions is expected, and even federal lawmakers have taken note – but for now, the agri-robotics revolution has a patchwork regulatory landscape, with states like California playing catch-up.

In the industrial automation arena, autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) are proliferating in factories and warehouses. At the Automatica 2025 trade fair in Munich (late June), several major vendors unveiled new autonomous platforms. For example, ABB Robotics introduced a lineup of four new robots, including a heavy-duty AMR capable of carrying 1,500 kg for smart factories robotics247.com. This large autonomous cart can ferry hefty loads or pallets across warehouse floors without human drivers, targeting industries like automotive assembly. Italy’s Comau likewise launched mobile robotic platforms and collaborative robotic exoskeletons at the show, aiming to assist workers on the factory floor. Fanuc demonstrated updates to its simulation software that help optimize robot layouts virtually, speeding up deployment of automation therobotreport.com. And Universal Robots debuted “UR Studio,” a cloud-based tool to let users simulate and program cobots remotely in a 1:1 virtual model of their workcell manufacturingtechnologytoday.com – lowering the barrier to entry for integrating robots manufacturingtechnologytoday.com.

Trends in warehousing include robots that can lift higher and navigate complex storage. Startup Brightpick, for instance, launched a system called “Giraffe” – an AMR with a telescoping arm that climbs warehouse shelves to retrieve items, potentially tripling storage density in fulfillment centers logisticsviewpoints.com. And climbing robots aren’t the only innovation: companies are also adding tactile sensing and AI to robotic arms to handle delicate tasks. A Silicon Valley firm, Tacta Systems, just raised $75 million to give robots a “smart nervous system” – essentially tactile feedback and advanced vision so they can perform human-like manipulation in factories and logistics manufacturingtechnologytoday.com manufacturingtechnologytoday.com. All these developments point to a hybrid workforce model: humans working alongside fleets of AGVs and AMRs that move goods, handle materials, or do repetitive chores. Notably, despite softening economic forecasts for the warehouse automation market, analysts say demand remains robust in 2025 freightwaves.com – companies are investing in automation to tackle labor shortages and increase supply chain resilience. From Amazon’s fully robotic fulfillment centers to small manufacturers deploying their first autonomous forklifts, ground robots have become essential to productivity.

Technology Advances in Hardware, AI and Safety

The past two months saw significant technical progress under the hood of AGVs. Sensor technology and AI algorithms continue to improve, enabling safer and more capable autonomy. A clear theme is the industry’s turn toward multi-modal sensor suites for redundancy. Waymo and Cruise have long used a mix of LiDAR, radar, and cameras, and now even automakers like Ford are endorsing that approach for higher levels of autonomy. Ford’s CEO’s June remarks (citing LiDAR’s superiority in rain/darkness) evxl.co reflect a broader consensus that relying on cameras alone is risky. This debate – LiDAR vs. camera-only – heated up as Tesla doubled down on its vision-only FSD system, whereas others added lidar for safety. The cost of LiDAR has come down dramatically (units that once cost $75k are now under $10k), easing the adoption in new vehicles. In an example of sensor innovation, Nuro’s new delivery vehicle sensor suite (revealed June) includes four types of cameras plus long-range LiDAR and high-resolution radars, all fused into a streamlined roof module thelastdriverlicenseholder.com. This gives the compact robot 360° vision at long and short range, improving its ability to navigate neighborhood streets safely.

On the software side, AI driving algorithms are getting smarter and more efficient. Waymo released a study in June on scaling laws for autonomous driving AI, noting that larger neural networks and more training data continue to improve motion planning performance waymo.com. With each million miles driven (or simulated), the prediction and decision-making modules become more adept at handling rare events. Companies are also using simulation at massive scales – e.g. Cruise mentioned billions of virtual miles – to train AI on edge cases that are hard to encounter in limited real-world testing. Another trend is on-board AI chips and improved compute: the latest AVs carry more powerful computers yet are optimizing energy use. For instance, Mobileye’s EyeQ chips (now in their 5th generation) are widely adopted for ADAS and provide a pathway to full self-driving; Mobileye announced its EyeQ technology is in 150 million vehicles globally as of mid-2024 globenewswire.com.

Safety systems are also advancing. Many autonomous trucks and cars now feature multiple fail-safes: high-precision GPS plus inertial measurement for localization, 360° camera coverage, and radar/ultrasonic sensors as backups globalagtechinitiative.com globalagtechinitiative.com. Vehicles are being equipped with remote emergency stop (E-stop) capabilities – for example, Carbon’s autonomous tractors have physical and remote e-stop buttons and a low-latency satellite link to ensure an operator can halt the machine if needed globalagtechinitiative.com. In July, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported it is monitoring AV safety closely; early data (from Waymo and others) is encouraging, showing significantly lower crash rates per mile compared to human-driven cars goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com. Waymo publicized that none of its driverless rides in San Francisco have produced a fatality or serious injury, bolstering the case that AI drivers can eventually be safer than human averages. Still, occasional incidents (like a Cruise robotaxi’s collision with a pedestrian in late 2023) keep regulators cautious. Companies are addressing this with improved verification and validation processes – e.g. more transparent safety reporting and collaborating with standards bodies on proving safety cases. In sum, better sensors, better AI models, and more rigorous safety engineering are converging to make AGVs more reliable by the month.

Government Regulations and Legal Frameworks

Regulation of autonomous ground vehicles saw notable shifts in June–July 2025 across multiple jurisdictions. In the United States, the federal government moved to streamline rules and override the patchwork of state laws that AV companies have long complained about emergingtechbrew.com emergingtechbrew.com. In early June, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy unveiled an updated Automated Vehicle Framework under NHTSA, aiming for a “single national standard” for AV safety and deployment emergingtechbrew.com emergingtechbrew.com. A key first step, effective mid-June, was rolling back certain reporting requirements that had mandated AV operators to report every minor incident. NHTSA issued a Third Amended Standing General Order on June 16 that eases the frequency of mandatory safety data reports for autonomous vehicle testing reuters.com reuters.com. The agency also expanded its AV exemption program to domestic manufacturers, allowing more pilot vehicles that don’t meet every traditional car safety standard (for example, cars without steering wheels or mirrors) to hit the road for testing reuters.com reuters.com. U.S. officials emphasized that these changes will “slash red tape” and help the U.S. “not cede AV leadership to China” reuters.com reuters.com. At the same time, Congress is weighing legislation: the Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025 was introduced in the Senate (by Sen. Lummis) to firmly cement USDOT’s authority to set AV rules and pre-empt conflicting state laws emergingtechbrew.com emergingtechbrew.com. There is bipartisan momentum, with experts calling AVs “the one bipartisan issue” that Washington can agree on these days emergingtechbrew.com.

State-level developments in the U.S. are mixed. California – a bellwether for AV policy – proposed new rules for autonomous trucking in late April that would allow heavy-duty self-driving trucks to test on public roads (something that had been barred) emergingtechbrew.com. Draft California regulations would require companies to log at least 50,000 miles with a safety driver, then 50,000 miles fully driverless, before obtaining a deployment permit reuters.com reuters.com. This cautious approach is meant to ensure sufficient on-road validation. California’s DMV also floated new reporting rules specifically to cover vehicles like Tesla’s with advanced driver-assist (to close a gap where many ADAS crashes went unreported) reuters.com reuters.com. Meanwhile, Arizona and Texas continue to be more permissive, actively welcoming AV trucking tests and delivery robots with relatively few restrictions. And in a novel twist, a provision in a draft U.S. House spending bill (discussed in July) would bar states from regulating AI systems in vehicles for 10 years, effectively preventing any state-level bans on AV tech prospect.org. This proposed federal pre-emption, if enacted, could nullify stringent state rules (critics argue it’s an overreach, removing local authority to address safety as AVs proliferate).

In Europe and the UK, 2025 has been a landmark year for AV legislation. The UK passed its Automated Vehicles Act 2024, and in June the government launched public consultations on implementing it. One consultation (opened June 10) seeks input on detailed safety requirements for self-driving vehicles before they can operate on British roads logistics.org.uk. Another is examining how to restrict the use of terms like “autonomous” or “full self-driving” in marketing, so that only genuinely self-driving systems (as authorized by law) can be advertised with those phrases logistics.org.uk. The goal is to prevent consumer confusion or overhyping of driver-assist features as self-driving. These UK efforts align with recommendations from the Law Commission to build trust and clarity as automated cars roll out perhaps by 2025–2026 on British roads. Elsewhere in Europe, the EU’s vehicle regulations already allow Level 3 autonomous driving in certain conditions (e.g. Mercedes-Benz’s Drive Pilot is approved in Germany and France up to 60 km/h in traffic jams). The UNECE is continuing to update international regulations – its working party on automated vehicles (WP.29 GRVA) met in late June to refine standards for ALKS (automated lane-keeping systems) and beyond unece.org. Germany and France are funding pilot projects (like France’s initiative on robotic shuttles and military supply robots nextgendefense.com), and China in July implemented new nationwide guidelines for autonomous vehicle mapping and safety driver training, to standardize the rapid AV deployments in cities like Shenzhen.

Overall, the regulatory trend is toward gradual liberalization with oversight. Governments are starting to permit more AV operations – from trucks in the U.S. to unmanned shuttles in Europe – but typically with phased approaches (testing → pilot service → full deployment) and data reporting to authorities. Industry leaders generally welcome clearer rules: Plus AI’s public policy head noted in June that a federal U.S. framework would be crucial to scaling trucks nationwide emergingtechbrew.com emergingtechbrew.com. One remaining challenge is insurance and liability in AV incidents. In June, Germany’s Allianz announced it is developing new insurance models for robotaxi fleets, and several U.S. states are debating how to assign liability when a human is not driving (with most leaning toward the vehicle owner/operator being responsible by default). We can expect ongoing legal adaptation as AVs move from novelty to normal on roads around the world.

Market Analysis, Investment, and Outlook

Despite recent speed bumps, the market outlook for autonomous ground vehicles is bullish, with analysts forecasting strong growth over the next decade. In late June, Astute Analytica pegged the global autonomous driving market (including cars, trucks, and off-road AVs) at around $45 billion in 2025, and projected it will soar to $668.6 billion by 2033 – a ~10× expansion in eight years globenewswire.com. Many forecasts highlight robotaxis and autonomous mobility services as key drivers: Goldman Sachs Research noted in July that U.S. robotaxis could reach ~8% of the rideshare market by 2030, generating about $7 billion annually goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com. Goldman analysts see around 35,000 robotaxis in operation in the U.S. by 2030, up from roughly 1,500 today goldmansachs.com. That implies a 90% compound annual growth rate in robotaxi fleet size from 2025 to 2030 goldmansachs.com – extremely rapid scaling, albeit from a small base. Globally, a new Robotaxi Market Outlook (2025–2034) report projected the market for autonomous ride-hailing will grow from $4.4B in 2025 to $125B in 2034 (45% CAGR) finance.yahoo.com, as more cities permit driverless cabs. On the consumer side, surveys in June found increasing acceptance of AV rides: in Phoenix and San Francisco, tens of thousands of people use Waymo or Cruise robotaxis each month, and over 80% reported they would ride again, which bodes well for adoption.

Investment is flowing into the sector, though with a discerning eye after some high-profile stumbles. So far in 2025, over $5 billion of venture and private equity funding has gone into AV and robotics startups worldwide (per PitchBook data through Q2). June saw several notable raises: California’s Tacta Systems secured $75 million for its robot “nervous system” tech manufacturingtechnologytoday.com, and China’s PIX Moving raised an additional round to scale its autonomous delivery vehicle platform. There is also consolidation: in July, Hyundai’s Motional unit was rumored to be in merger talks with another AV firm to pool resources for robotaxis, and Amazon is reportedly integrating more of Zoox’s tech into its logistics. The public markets rewarded some players – Mobileye’s stock hit year-highs on strong ADAS sales, and Nvidia (whose chips power many AVs) briefly became the world’s most valuable company by market cap in late June on the AI boom reuters.com reuters.com. On the flip side, companies that over-promised have been punished: Embark Trucks, an early autonomous trucking startup, shut down in May; and the SPAC-fueled euphoria of 2021–22 has given way to sober execution in 2025.

One of the biggest financial moves came from Plus AI, as mentioned, which chose the SPAC route to go public at a $1.2B valuation emergingtechbrew.com. Plus’s merger, announced June 5, will infuse it with capital to ramp production of its autonomous trucking system (Plus already operates pilot freight routes and has a deal with Amazon for semi-truck retrofits). We’re also seeing traditional automotive players invest internally: Deere & Co. (the farm machinery giant) said in its earnings that it will boost R&D spending by 20% to accelerate autonomous tractor and harvester offerings, reflecting how important automation is to its future revenue reuters.com reuters.com. In the supply chain domain, Walmart expanded its commitment to driverless delivery by extending partnerships with Gatik and Nuro, indicating confidence that autonomy will lower delivery costs long-term.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic on the profitability of AV services. Goldman Sachs estimates that a vertically integrated robotaxi operator could achieve 40–50% gross margins within a few years goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com, thanks to eliminating driver costs and improving vehicle utilization. By 2030, they project the total U.S. AV rideshare market could see ~$3.5B in gross profit if scaling meets expectations goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com. Key variables include how quickly companies can scale fleets (production of AVs is still limited) and how intense competition gets – a wider field of AV providers could drive prices down. Right now, Waymo and Cruise are the only commercial robotaxi services in the U.S., but others (Motional, Zoox, and perhaps Tesla or Uber’s partners) aim to join by 2025–26. If technology and trust hurdles are overcome, the upside could be considerable: some market research (Precedence Research) imagines the global autonomous vehicle market could exceed $2 trillion by 2030, factoring in not just taxis but self-driving personal cars, trucks, shuttles, and industrial vehicles researchandmarkets.com precedenceresearch.com.

In summary, the past two months have underscored a turning point for autonomous ground vehicles: The technology is moving from prototype to product in many domains, and governments and investors are increasingly treating AVs as an inevitability. From defense robots saving lives on battlefields, to robo-taxis scaling up in cities, to farm and warehouse bots filling labor gaps, autonomous ground vehicles are steadily becoming part of the global landscape. Significant challenges remain – safety validation, public acceptance, and sensible regulation – but the progress in June-July 2025 suggests the industry is addressing these step by step. As one industry executive put it, “Autonomous vehicles have arrived… The question now is how fast they will grow and how big the market will become, rather than if the technology works.” goldmansachs.com goldmansachs.com With that mindset, stakeholders worldwide are plowing ahead to harness the benefits of AGVs across commercial, military, and everyday life.

Sources: Each news item and claim above is backed by recent sources: Reuters, Defense/Military news outlets, press releases, and expert commentary from June–July 2025. Key references include Reuters reports on Waymo and regulatory changes reuters.com reuters.com, defense news from The Defense Post and NextGen Defense thedefensepost.com nextgendefense.com, tech industry updates (Morning Brew’s Emerging Tech Brew emergingtechbrew.com), and company press releases (Serve Robotics globenewswire.com, Carbon Robotics globalagtechinitiative.com, etc.), as cited throughout. These provide a comprehensive, factual foundation for the developments discussed.