- Oil surges: Crude hit a three-week high after U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly fell and export snags in Iraq, Venezuela and Russia tightened supply [1] [2]. Brent crude topped $68.5, gaining ~1.4%, while WTI neared $64.4 (up ~1.5%) on Sep 24.
- Gold at record: Gold prices flirted with all-time highs above $3,790/oz as investors piled into safe havens on Fed rate-cut bets and geopolitical jitters [3] [4]. Silver also hovered near a 14-year peak around $44/oz [5].
- Copper spikes: Industrial metals rallied, with copper jumping over 3% to a 15-month high above $10,170/ton after a major mine outage raised supply fears [6] [7]. Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure at its Grasberg mine could cut output into 2026 [8] [9].
- Mixed grains: Wheat prices ticked up on strong importer demand (Algeria booked 600,000+ tons) [10], while corn stayed flat as U.S. harvest pressure offset yield worries [11]. Soybeans rose slightly but faced headwinds from China buying cheaper Argentine soy after tax breaks [12].
- Softs diverge: Arabica coffee surged near all-time highs (~$4.20/lb) amid a U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian beans and Brazil’s drought hitting crops [13] [14]. In contrast, sugar slumped to ~15.2¢/lb – a 2½-month low – under the weight of plentiful supply as Brazilian mills max out sugar output and Asia’s harvest outlook improves [15] [16]. Cotton held steady around 65–66¢/lb, lacking a clear catalyst despite global stockpiles projected to hit a four-year low [17].
Energy Commodities: Oil & Gas
Oil markets saw a sharp upswing over the past two days. On Tuesday, Brent crude rallied 1.6% to $67.63/barrel and WTI to $63.41 as news broke that Iraq’s Kurdistan export pipeline remains offline, stalling an expected restart [18] [19]. Traders had “sold off on reports of a Kurdistan deal, and the lack of a deal has now taken those barrels out of the market,” noted Phil Flynn of Price Futures [20]. This reversal snapped a four-session losing streak for oil and calmed oversupply fears by effectively removing ~230,000 bpd of anticipated supply from markets [21] [22].
By Wednesday (Sep 24), crude extended gains – Brent hit $68.57 (a 3-week high) and WTI $64.38 – after a surprise drop in U.S. oil inventories reinforced the tightening narrative [23] [24]. The U.S. EIA reported crude stocks fell ~607,000 barrels last week, defying forecasts of a build [25]. “The report is somewhat supportive given the draws across the board,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital, referring to declining crude, gasoline and distillate stocks [26].
Geopolitical factors added fuel: Ukraine’s military struck oil facilities in Russia, and a state of emergency at a key Black Sea export port heightened supply angst [27]. Meanwhile, a stall in Iraq-Turkey pipeline negotiations and Chevron’s curbed exports from Venezuela (due to U.S. permit issues) further tightened near-term supply [28]. “The focus recently has shifted back to Eastern Europe and the possible introduction of fresh sanctions on Russia,” observed Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates [29]. These risks helped counteract lingering demand concerns from economic headwinds. Notably, OPEC+ production is on the rise even as global demand is expected to taper from Q3 to Q4 and into early 2026 [30]. SEB analysts warn that unless China mops up the surplus, oil prices could be pushed “into the 50s” per barrel next year [31].
Looking ahead, institutions are split on oil’s trajectory. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that world oil supply is climbing faster than demand and predicted a growing surplus in 2026 [32]. This suggests downward pressure on prices in the medium term. Yet in the short run, many analysts see support from low OECD stockpiles and potential winter supply snags. “Supportive elements are still low OECD oil inventories,” noted UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, though he also flagged higher OPEC+ output and the lack of new Russia sanctions as headwinds for prices [33]. On the natural gas front, U.S. Henry Hub futures inched up into the ~$2.85–2.90 per MMBtu range this week [34]. Traders largely shrugged off “comfortable” current gas supplies and mild weather, focusing instead on the upcoming winter and Thursday’s storage report. The market expects a robust 78 Bcf storage injection, near the five-year average [35]. In Europe, gas prices remain volatile but subdued relative to last year – storage is lower than 2024, yet some traders are hedging against a potential 60% price spike by next summer in case of a harsh winter and rebounding Asian LNG demand [36] [37]. Overall, energy markets are finely balanced between short-term tightness (due to outages and inventories) and longer-term oversupply risks as more production comes online.
Precious Metals: Gold & Silver Shine
Gold is in the spotlight after vaulting to record highs this week. On Tuesday, spot gold surged to an unprecedented $3,790.82/oz intraday [38], before settling around $3,778. The rally was fueled by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical uncertainty and growing expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts [39] [40]. “Gold prices climbed to a fresh record high on Tuesday, aided by safe haven flows… and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts,” Reuters reported [41]. Investors rushed into bullion as turmoil (such as escalated tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East) and signs of economic stress boosted its appeal [42] [43].
By Wednesday, gold steadied just below its peak – hovering around $3,765/oz – as traders turned cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data [44] [45]. “Gold is still digesting Fed commentary and geopolitical tensions… finding support here, but slightly cautious ahead of economic data,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures [46]. Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Tuesday gave little new guidance on rate policy, but did emphasize balancing inflation risks against a cooling job market [47]. The absence of any hawkish surprise reinforced bets that the Fed will continue easing – futures markets are pricing in two more 0.25% rate cuts by year-end (one almost fully expected in October) [48]. Low rates burnish gold’s allure, since the metal carries no yield.
Inflation and growth signals due later in the week (U.S. jobless claims and the Fed’s PCE inflation gauge) kept gold traders on guard [49]. However, the overarching narrative remains bullish: with real interest rates easing and geopolitical risks simmering, gold’s status as a store of value is highly attractive. Ongoing conflict in Ukraine – including strikes on Russian infrastructure – and uncertainty in the Middle East have only added to gold’s luster [50]. “Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty,” as Reuters noted [51].
Silver has closely shadowed gold’s rise. Spot silver traded around $44.15/oz, near its highest in 14 years [52]. The white metal benefited both from haven demand and its industrial angle. “On one hand, silver benefits as a high-beta expression of gold’s store-of-value appeal. On the other, structural demand growth from photovoltaics and electrification provides a tangible narrative,” analysts at Saxo Bank observed [53]. Indeed, silver’s dual role means it outpaced gold in percentage terms, hitting multi-year highs as investors poured in. Platinum and palladium also saw bumps – platinum at ~$1,480/oz is at an 11-year high, buoyed by nearly 5% gains this week [54] [55], while palladium rose to ~$1,230/oz [56].
Looking forward, precious metals bulls remain confident. The combination of looming Fed rate cuts, persistent inflation hedging, and geopolitical hedges could sustain high gold prices. ETF investors and central banks have been accumulating gold – a trend noted by Commerzbank, which cited “strong buying interest… driven by expectations of rate cuts, concerns around the Fed’s independence, and geopolitical developments” as underpinning the market [57] [58]. Some forecasts even suggest further upside; for example, Indian market analysts foresee gold testing $3,820–3,850 in the near term if momentum continues [59]. Nonetheless, any sudden change in Fed stance or a sharp improvement in economic data could spark profit-taking. For now, though, the path of least resistance for gold appears upward, with dips viewed as buying opportunities in a climate of abundant uncertainty.
Industrial Metals: Copper’s Supply Jolt
Industrial metals were energized by supply-side jolts and an improved macro mood. Copper – bellwether of the industrial sector – spiked dramatically mid-week. On Sep 24, London copper futures leapt over 3% to $10,172/ton, the highest in more than 15 months [60] [61]. U.S. copper likewise surged to ~$4.77/lb on the CME [62] [63]. The catalyst: a major disruption at one of the world’s largest copper mines. Freeport-McMoRan announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, halting production after a mining accident [64] [65]. With Grasberg offline, Freeport warned its 2026 output could be 35% below prior plans, and it doesn’t expect mining to resume until the first half of 2026 [66] [67]. This bombshell sent Freeport’s stock tumbling ~10% and lit a fire under copper prices, as traders braced for a prolonged supply deficit. “Copper prices… jumped by more than 3% to their highest in more than 15 months on Wednesday following the announcement by Freeport,” Reuters noted [68].
The supply picture was further strained by other hiccups: In Peru, Hudbay Minerals had to shut a mill at its Constancia mine due to political protests [69]. And earlier in the month, the market was already tracking reports of Chinese smelter maintenance and low inventories, which had helped copper rally off its summer lows [70] [71]. Year-to-date, copper is up roughly 14%, reflecting this tighter backdrop [72]. On the demand side, the narrative is more mixed. Hopes for easier global monetary policy and a weaker U.S. dollar have supported industrial metals in recent weeks [73]. However, concerns linger over China’s economy – the top consumer of copper. China’s manufacturing data has been soft (e.g. a rapid contraction in the August factory PMI) and property sector woes persist [74]. “The market now faces a tug of war between supportive supply-side dynamics and uncertainty over whether China’s slowdown will curb demand growth,” summarized one analysis [75].
Despite those demand questions, analyst sentiment on copper has turned optimistically cautious. Goldman Sachs and others point to relatively low stocks and continued infrastructure spending as positives [76] [77]. Moreover, speculative sentiment got a boost from the broader risk-on environment as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts that could stimulate economic activity. In fact, copper had already been climbing even before the Grasberg news – it touched a five-month high earlier this week, flirting with $10,000/ton, as traders bet on improving macro conditions. With the supply shock now front and center, many expect elevated copper prices to persist. “Higher import premiums, low inventories, and potential supply constraints are lending support,” noted Jia Zheng of Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management [78] [79]. Still, if China’s demand disappoints significantly or if a global recession hits, copper’s rally could lose steam. For the time being, though, the red metal’s bulls have the upper hand, eyeing whether any new supply responses (or policy measures in China) emerge to cool the market.
Other base metals saw sympathetic moves. Aluminum traded around $2,570/ton, relatively stable but up a touch amid energy cost concerns for smelters. Nickel and others were less in focus these two days, though a general uptick in risk appetite helped most LME metals. Notably, iron ore (outside of base metals but critical to steel) has been steady, with China’s property concerns capping gains. In sum, industrial metals are navigating a cross-current: tight supplies and hopes of economic easing versus China’s demand doubts. Many traders expect choppy trading ahead, but with a bias higher for supply-constrained metals like copper if current conditions hold.
Agricultural Commodities: Harvest vs. Demand
It’s the start of autumn harvest, and grain markets reflected a push-pull between supply and demand factors from September 23–24. In wheat, prices firmed modestly, finding support from robust international buying. Benchmark Chicago wheat (CBOT Dec futures) rose to about $5.23 per bushel [80], near a two-week high. Traders cheered news that major importers stepped in: Algeria’s state grains agency purchased roughly 600,000 tons of milling wheat in a tender this week [81], and Jordan issued tenders for another 120,000 tons [82]. This wave of demand helped wheat bounce off recent lows. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty in the Black Sea region continues to underpin wheat – with Ukraine’s exports restricted by war and Russia’s export pace being watched, some importers are securing supplies aggressively.
On the flip side, wheat faces abundant global stockpiles after a strong Russian crop, which limited the price upside. But for now, the flurry of tenders from North Africa and the Middle East has given wheat a short-term lift. Kansas City hard wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat futures similarly ticked up by a few cents, reflecting improving sentiment [83]. Analysts note that wheat could remain range-bound; any further rallies may depend on Northern Hemisphere winter crop planting conditions and whether export demand stays brisk.
Corn prices were relatively flat, consolidating just above one-year lows as the U.S. corn harvest gets underway. December corn futures hovered around $4.27/bushel [84], basically steady this week. On one hand, seasonal harvest pressure is kicking in – farmers in the Midwest are bringing in the new crop (11% of U.S. corn fields were harvested as of Sunday) [85], which adds near-term supply. Fair weather is aiding rapid progress; forecasts show dry Midwest conditions next week to speed up harvest [86]. These factors tend to weigh on prices. Indeed, some elevators are reporting better-than-expected yields in early harvest areas, though it’s not uniform.
On the other hand, yield uncertainty still provides some support. Traders are closely watching results to see if summer drought damage in parts of the Corn Belt reduced output. “Doubts over yields have helped underpin the market” even as combines roll, one commentary noted [87]. The USDA rated 66% of the corn crop good/excellent, a notch lower than last week, confirming some late-season stress [88]. Encouragingly for prices, demand signals have appeared: U.S. corn export sales to Mexico were announced three days in a row this week, totaling nearly 1 million tons for future delivery [89]. That steady Mexican buying has acted as a floor under corn. In the short term, analysts expect corn to stay in a narrow range – tracking harvest reports and export booking pace. Any significant harvest weather issue or surprisingly low yields could spark a rebound, whereas a smooth, bountiful harvest may push prices to test contract lows.
Soybeans had a choppy couple of days, ultimately inching higher but lagging the rally in wheat. November soybeans ended around $10.16¾/bushel [90]. Early in the week, soybeans were pressured by a fresh headwind: China turned to Argentina for soy. Traders report Chinese importers booked ~20 cargoes (≈1.3 million tons) of Argentine soybeans after Argentina temporarily removed export taxes on soy and its products [91]. This policy move made Argentine soy very competitive, diverting some demand away from U.S. beans just as the U.S. harvest begins. The market took notice – “rising estimates of Argentine soy booked by Chinese buyers… kept attention on stalled U.S.-China trade,” noted Reuters [92]. Essentially, while China typically buys heavily from the U.S. in fall, this year some of that business may be siphoned off by South America’s opportunistic sales, at least in the short term.
Despite that challenge, U.S. soybeans found support from the same theme as corn: uncertain yields and harvest pace. Only 9% of U.S. soybean acreage was harvested by the start of this week, and production outcomes remain a question mark. If pod counts or bean sizes disappoint due to late-season dryness in some areas, the crop could be smaller than earlier projected, which would tighten supplies. The soy market is also mindful of strong soy product demand – soybean meal and oil prices have been relatively firm, indicating end-user demand (like for livestock feed and biodiesel) is still robust. This product strength underpinned the complex. Indeed, the USDA confirmed a sale of ~101,000 tons of soymeal to Guatemala, signaling international demand for U.S. soy products [93]. In the coming weeks, traders will watch U.S. harvest results, South American planting (Brazil is starting to plant its next soybean crop), and Chinese buying patterns. Many analysts see soybeans range-bound near current levels, with a potential to firm up if U.S. yield losses emerge or if China returns to U.S. purchases later in the season. Conversely, a large U.S. harvest and aggressive South American competition could cap any rallies.
Overall, agricultural markets are in a transition period: shifting from pricing weather risks to actually weighing the new crop coming in. Prices will increasingly take cues from real harvest data and the pace of export demand. Right now, the mood is cautious but not bearish – there’s enough demand (wheat tenders, corn sales, soy product export) to prevent a slide, yet ample supply prospects to limit big spikes. The next USDA supply/demand report and crop progress updates will be pivotal in setting direction for these markets as autumn progresses.
Soft Commodities: Coffee Rockets, Sugar Slides, Cotton Steadies
It was a tale of extremes in the soft commodity arena. Coffee continued its astonishing rise, whereas sugar extended its decline, and cotton remained range-bound.
In coffee, prices are near historic highs due to a potent mix of policy and weather factors. New York arabica futures have skyrocketed roughly 50% since late July, recently trading around $4.20 per pound – territory not far from the all-time record (~$4.29) [94] [95]. Earlier in September, arabica hit a seven-month peak at $4.24 before a bout of profit-taking trimmed it back slightly [96] [97]. The surge is largely driven by the U.S. government’s 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee, imposed at the end of July, which massively disrupted the coffee supply chain [98] [99]. Brazil formerly supplied one-third of U.S. coffee; those flows have now plummeted, forcing U.S. roasters into a scramble for alternative supplies and exchange-certified stocks [100]. “I attribute most of this recent price rally to tariffs and the resulting disruption on the supply chain,” said Tomas Araujo, a coffee broker at StoneX, adding that worries about Brazil’s weather are another driver [101].
Indeed, Brazil’s weather is the second punch in coffee’s one-two punch. September has been unusually dry in Brazil’s coffee belt, just when rain is needed for coffee trees to flower (which determines next year’s crop) [102]. Earlier this year, Brazil also suffered a cold snap; reports of frost damage to the 2025/26 crop have surfaced, compounding supply concerns [103]. With Brazilian output prospects uncertain and the tariff choking off U.S.-Brazil trade, New York coffee stocks have dwindled and prices have been extremely volatile. Notably, coffee saw an 8% price drop in one session last week when speculative funds suddenly liquidated longs [104]. But the market quickly found footing again. “The market remained underpinned… by tight supplies in the United States following the tariff on Brazil,” traders said, explaining why prices rebounded after that steep fall [105]. Looking ahead, coffee’s fate may depend on policy and weather developments. U.S. lawmakers have introduced a bill to remove tariffs on coffee imports [106]; if enacted, it could relieve some pressure on prices. Conversely, if Brazil doesn’t get adequate rain in the coming weeks, the 2026 crop could be impaired, potentially keeping prices elevated. For now, cafe owners and importers worldwide are on edge – many are hedging or seeking new origins to cover their needs until this storm passes [107].
Meanwhile, sugar markets have been sliding in the opposite direction. Raw sugar futures dropped to roughly 15.2 cents/lb, the lowest since early July [108] [109]. That’s more than one-third below the multi-year highs seen earlier in 2025 [110]. The tone in sugar is decidedly bearish, thanks to expectations of ample global supplies. In Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer, mills are making the most of a strong harvest. The latest industry data (UNICA report for late August) showed Center-South Brazil processors churning out a record-high proportion of sugar versus ethanol [111]. Essentially, attractive sugar economics led Brazilian mills to direct a maximum share of cane to sugar production. This alleviated earlier fears that high domestic ethanol prices might divert cane away from sugar – a scenario that has not materialized [112]. “The record sugar mix is alleviating concerns that mills could alter their product mix,” noted Rabobank analysts in a report [113]. With Brazil flooding the market with sugar, other suppliers also look strong. India and Thailand have favorable production prospects for the upcoming season, adding to the surplus outlook [114].
Speculative money has responded by piling on short positions in sugar. In fact, speculators now hold their largest net short in raw sugar since 2019 [115], reflecting a consensus that prices may have further to fall. The bearish sentiment is driven by the fundamental picture: after a couple of years of deficits and high prices, the world sugar balance is swinging back to surplus. Even news that the Brazilian real strengthened (which can sometimes support sugar by making Brazilian exports pricier) only prompted brief short-covering bounces [116]. For now, the downtrend remains intact. However, sugar traders are wary of any weather surprises – for instance, if heavy rains in Brazil or a poor Asian monsoon hit yields, sugar could find a floor. Also, energy markets are a wildcard: should oil prices keep rising, Brazil might shift more cane to ethanol fuel production, tightening sugar availability. Many in the trade expect sugar to consolidate in the mid-teens until a new catalyst emerges. It’s a dramatic turnaround from last year’s sugar rally, illustrating how quickly agricultural commodities can flip from scarcity to glut.
Lastly, cotton stayed relatively stable through the past 48 hours, with December U.S. cotton futures trading around 65–67 cents per pound [117]. Unlike the flashier moves in coffee or oil, cotton has been quietly range-bound, hemmed in by mixed fundamentals. On the bullish side, world cotton ending stocks are forecast to drop – the latest USDA estimates reduced 2025/26 global cotton carryout to about 73 million bales, the lowest in four years [118]. This tightening is partly because consumption, especially in China, was revised upward for last season, while production growth remains modest [119] [120]. In other words, the supply-demand balance in cotton is slowly improving. Additionally, any weather issues (like hurricanes in the U.S. Cotton Belt or excessive rain during harvest) could threaten yields and lend support to prices.
However, those bullish hints have yet to translate into a breakout. “Cotton market bears continue to hinder bullish hints,” as one industry commentator put it [121]. The headwinds include sizable existing stocks and competition from man-made fibers. Global mill demand for cotton, while recovering from pandemic lows, remains lukewarm as textile producers also use polyester blends (especially with oil prices stable). Moreover, U.S.-China trade tensions still cast a shadow – U.S. cotton exports to China have been historically low, and tariffs (though reduced from peak trade war levels) haven’t fully disappeared [122]. On the supply side, early reports from U.S. fields indicate an okay crop: the USDA sees slightly higher U.S. cotton production this year (13.2 million bales, up 10,000 from last month) with an average farm price around 64¢ [123]. Well-timed rains improved prospects in West Texas, the top region, though the harvest is just beginning.
Without a jolt to demand or a supply shock, cotton prices have had trouble gaining upward momentum – they’ve hovered in the mid-60s cents for weeks. Analysts say a clear catalyst is needed. “Cotton prices need some kindlin’, but how and when?” quipped cotton economist Don Shurley this week [124]. In the short term, traders will watch the pace of U.S. exports (any uptick in sales to importers like Vietnam, Turkey or Pakistan could help) and the progress of the U.S. harvest (which will ramp up in October). In the medium term, much hinges on consumer demand for apparel going into the holiday season and on whether China’s currently flat cotton consumption sees a boost from economic stimulus. For now, the market seems content in its range, with merchants and mills hedging around this level. Should global economic conditions improve or a production issue arise, cotton could break higher – but absent that, it’s likely to remain the comparatively calm corner of an otherwise eventful commodities landscape.
Sources: Reuters, September 22–24, 2025 [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136].
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