Global Commodities Soar as War, Weather & Tariffs Upend Markets (Sept 25

Key Facts

Oil surges to a 7-week high as Russia halts fuel exports amid Ukrainian attacks, driving Brent crude up 4% on the week ^[1] ^[2]. Diesel prices spiked globally after Moscow’s ban on most diesel and gasoline exports, with European refining margins hitting the highest since early 2024 ^[3] ^[4].
Gold hits record territory, peaking near $3,800/oz, on safe-haven demand and trade war jitters ^[5]. Strong U.S. economic data lifted the dollar and tempered Fed rate-cut bets, keeping gold steady around $3,748 on Friday ^[6]. Fresh U.S. tariffs by President Trump fueled some safe-haven flows, limiting gold’s downside ^[7]. Platinum hovered at 12-year highs as investors piled into precious metals ^[8].
Copper climbs 15-month peak above $10,400/ton, propelled by supply fears ^[9]. A major Freeport mine outage in Indonesia (Grasberg) and China’s curbs on copper smelting expansion have tightened the market ^[10] ^[11]. Analysts warn the world’s No.2 copper mine disruption could push the market into deficit next year ^[12]. Other base metals (aluminum, zinc, nickel) also rose on the bullish sentiment ^[13].
Wheat rebounds from contract lows as war and weather threaten supply. Chicago wheat futures jumped ~1% to $5.25½/bushel ^[14]. Traders cite escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict and dry planting conditions in the Black Sea region (Russia/Ukraine) as reasons for renewed buying ^[15]. Global demand upticks and Russian port bottlenecks added support.
Corn & soybeans find footing: Corn rose ~0.8% as early U.S. harvest results show lower yields than expected ^[16]. Soybeans edged up from six-week lows (~$10.05) to ~$10.15 after Argentina ended a tax waiver that had flooded the market with Argentine soy ^[17] ^[18]. Chinese importers had aggressively bought Argentine soy during the tax break, underscoring China’s shift away from U.S. beans amid the trade dispute ^[19].
Trump’s trade war escalates: On Sept 25, the U.S. unveiled broad new tariffs effective Oct 1 – including 100% duties on branded pharmaceuticals and 25% on heavy trucks ^[20]. In retaliation, China tightened export controls on critical minerals. Beijing’s curbs on rare earth elements (used in EVs, electronics and weapons) have U.S. and EU manufacturers scrambling for supply ^[21] ^[22].
Critical minerals in focus: G7 nations met to counter China’s rare-earth dominance, weighing price floors and tariffs to spur non-China supply ^[23] ^[24]. China produces ~90% of rare earths and in April imposed export controls on specialized metals and magnets, squeezing Western tech and defense industries ^[25] ^[26]. European firms report delays getting Chinese export licenses, prompting talks of stockpiling and subsidies for new mines ^[27] ^[28].
Fertilizer and fuel costs squeeze farmers: Fertilizer prices remain high – potash is up nearly 15% this year amid tariffs and war disruptions ^[29] ^[30]. A top fertilizer CEO warned U.S. farmers to brace for 25% higher input costs as trade tariffs get passed along ^[31]. The U.S. Justice Department launched a probe into anti-competitive behavior in farm inputs like fertilizer, seed, and diesel fuel, as volatility in these costs hits a farm sector already facing low crop prices ^[32] ^[33].

Energy: Oil Climbs on Conflict and Cuts, Gas Steadies Ahead of Winter

Oil markets rallied sharply during the week. Brent crude rose above $69.5/barrel on Sept 26, its highest since early August ^[34], and is set for a ~4% weekly gain – the biggest in three months ^[35]. West Texas Intermediate followed to ~$65.3/barrel ^[36]. The catalyst was a confluence of supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have dealt a serious blow to Moscow’s fuel infrastructure ^[37]. In response, Russia banned most diesel exports and extended a gasoline export ban through year-end ^[38] ^[39]. Russia typically exports ~880,000 barrels per day of diesel (about 12% of global seaborne diesel) ^[40], so this move sent global diesel prices soaring and pushed European refinery margins to their highest since Feb 2024 ^[41]. “Ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes…NATO’s warning to Russia, and Russia’s move to halt key fuel exports” have all supported oil’s price surge, noted IG analyst Tony Sycamore ^[42].

War risk premium is clearly back in play. NATO warned Moscow it’s prepared to respond to any airspace violations, raising fears of wider conflict ^[43]. Analysts say this ups the odds of harsher Western sanctions on Russian energy ^[44]. ANZ’s Daniel Hynes observed that oil’s earlier losses this week were erased as “geopolitical tensions” mounted, despite a deal allowing Iraq’s Kurdistan to resume ~500,000 bpd of oil exports within days ^[45]. In fact, prices briefly dipped on news of that Kurdistan export agreement (which adds supply) ^[46], but the bullish war factors ultimately won out. By week’s end both Brent and WTI were on track for their largest weekly jump since mid-June, when a Middle East flare-up last jolted prices ^[47].

Meanwhile, OPEC+ supply constraints are quietly supporting the market. A Reuters analysis shows the producer group has been pumping about 500,000 barrels per day below target since April ^[48] ^[49]. Many members simply can’t raise output further due to capacity limits or earlier overproduction curbs ^[50]. This shortfall – roughly 0.5% of global demand – has defied expectations of an oil glut and kept prices firm ^[51] ^[52]. In fact, Brent’s prompt price flipped to a premium of over $2 vs. six-month futures, the steepest backwardation since August, indicating traders see immediate supply tightness ^[53]. “The futures curve…is indicating market tightness, in contrast to observers claiming there’s a glut,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said ^[54]. With most OPEC+ members already at capacity, planned production hikes in coming months may underwhelm – potentially delivering only half the intended volumes ^[55] ^[56]. This suggests the oil market could remain undersupplied through year-end, barring a demand downturn.

On the demand side and macro drivers, signals are mixed. The U.S. economy surprised to the upside – Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% growth ^[57] – and weekly jobless claims fell, underscoring robust activity. A strong economy can support oil demand, but it also bolstered the U.S. dollar and made the Fed wary of aggressive rate cuts. The Federal Reserve did cut rates by 25 basis points last week (its first cut in nearly a year) and signaled more to come, aiming to nurture growth ^[58]. However, with inflation still a concern, traders pared back hopes of rapid rate relief after the solid data ^[59]. A less dovish Fed and firmer dollar tend to cap oil’s upside by making commodities pricier in other currencies. Still, fuel demand remains seasonally strong and U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly this week, adding bullish momentum ^[60].

Natural gas markets were relatively quieter. U.S. Henry Hub gas hovered in the mid-$3 per MMBtu range ^[61], easing from recent highs as autumn shoulder-season demand lulls in North America. In Europe, gas prices have been volatile but generally well below last year’s crisis levels ^[62]. Robust LNG imports and brimming storage (EU inventories are comfortable heading into winter) kept a lid on prices, despite some supply disruptions. Analysts note that Dutch TTF gas futures, the European benchmark, remain sensitive to any early cold snaps or escalation in the Ukraine war (given Europe’s reliance on rerouted gas flows). For now, however, the gas curve is relatively stable, with winter contracts pricing in a manageable supply outlook ^[63]. Barring a severe cold wave or new supply shock, traders expect gas to trade range-bound, as record LNG deliveries and energy savings measures have significantly eased the shortages seen in 2022.

On the energy transition front, there were notable developments in renewables. China announced new climate goals this week, pledging to expand its already world-leading wind and solar capacity to 3,600 GW by 2035 – a sixfold increase from 2020 levels ^[64]. Analysts noted Beijing has a habit of setting easily achievable targets; it met its previous 1,200 GW goal six years early ^[65]. Indeed, Greenpeace advisers called the updated targets “unambitious,” projecting China could hit 4,500 GW by 2035 at the current installation pace ^[66]. The real challenge for China is integrating all that renewable power – curtailment (wasted green energy) is rising due to grid constraints ^[67]. Notably, President Xi did not announce new curbs on coal, and China continues to approve new coal mines ^[68]. The contrast in climate stance with the U.S. was stark: Xi’s modest plan came days after U.S. President Trump dismissively called climate change a “con job” at the UN ^[69]. This geopolitical rift is affecting clean energy investment. For example, Fortescue Metals’ billionaire chairman Andrew Forrest doubled down on renewables this week, even as Trump’s policies turn hostile to green projects ^[70] ^[71]. Forrest, a major Australian miner, challenged Trump’s stance publicly – even daring the U.S. president to debate climate science “in a courtroom” if needed ^[72]. Fortescue has some of the mining sector’s most ambitious decarbonization targets and just acquired a wind technology firm while planning hundreds of battery-powered mining trucks ^[73]. But it had to scrap a U.S. green hydrogen project partly due to Trump’s policy shifts ^[74]. The upshot: despite short-term headwinds, global renewable momentum continues, especially in China, but policy uncertainty in the West could sway the pace of the energy transition.

Metals: Precious Metals Glitter, Base Metals Boosted by Supply Squeeze

Gold is living up to its safe-haven status amid the uncertainty. The yellow metal notched an all-time high this week, with spot gold touching $3,790.82 per ounce on Tuesday ^[75]. Even after a slight pullback, gold was up ~1.6% for the week and holding ground around $3,748 on Friday ^[76]. Several forces converged to drive this rally. One factor is hedging against geopolitical and economic risks – from war fears to the global trade war and questions about future Fed policy. Notably, President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Thursday gave gold an extra nudge upward. “Trump’s latest tariff announcement [is] keeping traders on alert, and the resulting safe-haven flows may act to limit any immediate downside for gold,” explained Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade ^[77]. In other words, each escalation in the trade conflict or geopolitical risk sends some investors running to gold as a protection.

At the same time, U.S. interest rate expectations are shifting in a gold-friendly direction. The Fed’s quarter-point rate cut last week, and the possibility of more easing ahead, generally support gold because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. However, this week’s surprisingly strong U.S. economic readings (hotter GDP, low jobless claims) complicated the picture ^[78]. With growth proving resilient, markets scaled back bets on rapid Fed cuts – which in turn held gold back from exploding even higher. The dollar firmed a bit on the data, creating a headwind for gold. The focus now is on inflation data: traders were awaiting the Fed’s preferred PCE price index on Friday for cues ^[79]. If inflation shows any sign of flaring up, it could reinforce gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. On the other hand, a cooling in price pressures might strengthen the case for the Fed to continue cutting rates, which also benefits gold. In short, gold is torn between robust safe-haven demand and the counterweight of a possibly stronger dollar. For now, it is holding near record highs, with many bulls eyeing the next big psychological level at $4,000 in 2026, according to analysts ^[80].

Under the hood, physical gold markets show an interesting East-West divergence. In China, the world’s top gold consumer, demand has actually softened despite the global price surge. Chinese dealers are offering steep discounts of $30–$70 per ounce below international prices – the widest in years ^[81] ^[82]. This implies slack domestic buying in China. One reason, traders say, is that Chinese investors are chasing quick profits in the booming stock market instead: China’s CSI300 equity index jumped to its highest since early 2022, drawing funds away from gold ^[83]. The hefty gold price and a lack of good arbitrage opportunities (due to import quotas) have dampened Chinese jewelry demand. By contrast, India’s gold market remains robust. Indian buyers were paying premiums up to $7/oz over global prices – the highest in nearly a year ^[84]. Despite record-high rupee gold prices, Indian investors are “snapping up coins and bars…hoping the rally keeps going,” said a Mumbai wholesaler ^[85] ^[86]. With the festive and wedding season (Dussehra, Diwali) in October, gold purchases are considered auspicious, and jewelers have been importing metal ahead of a likely hike in import duty ^[87] ^[88]. Other Asian hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong saw modest premiums of $1–$2, reflecting steady if unspectacular demand ^[89]. Overall, the physical market suggests gold’s towering price has curbed some traditional buying (especially in price-sensitive Asia), but investment demand in the West and risk-hedging is more than offsetting that for now.

Silver and the platinum-group metals rode gold’s coattails. Silver prices have been volatile but were around $44.80/oz on Friday ^[90], down slightly on the day but headed for weekly gains. The grey metal often tracks gold, with added volatility due to its industrial uses. Platinum, however, has been a star performer. It jumped 0.8% this week to about $1,541/oz, near a 12-year peak ^[91]. Supply tightness (South African power outages have crimped mine output) and hopes for growing demand in auto catalysts and hydrogen technology have boosted platinum. Sister-metal palladium also ticked up ~0.9% to $1,262/oz ^[92], although it remains far below its record highs as the switch to electric vehicles weakens demand for gasoline autocatalysts. Still, all three precious metals – gold, platinum, palladium – notched weekly gains, reflecting that investors continue to seek hard-asset stores of value in an uncertain macro environment ^[93].

In base metals, the headline story was copper’s surge. The bellwether industrial metal put on a powerful rally, reaching ~$10,485 per metric ton in London trading on Thursday – the highest price since May 2024 ^[94] ^[95]. Copper is now only about 6% shy of its all-time peak of $11,100 set last year ^[96]. This upswing was driven less by demand and more by supply scares. Two major developments stoked fears of a coming copper shortfall. First, in Asia’s top producer, China’s metals association proposed limits on new copper smelting capacity ^[97]. Chinese smelters have been suffering from persistently low treatment charges (a sign that raw copper concentrate supply is tight), so authorities want to curb over-expansion. If China caps smelting growth, it could constrain refined copper output in the future, supporting prices. Second, and more immediate, mining giant Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia ^[98]. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine, so any disruption there is significant. Freeport slashed its production forecast – it now expects 35% less output in 2026 than previously planned ^[99]. That bombshell sent traders scrambling; Wednesday saw a sharp price spike as the news hit. “The Grasberg news adds disruption to an already tight market,” explained ING analyst Ewa Manthey, noting it could swing the global copper balance into deficit next year ^[100]. She added that prices will likely stay supported by “ongoing supply disruptions, tight concentrate availability, and low inventories” outside China ^[101]. Indeed, a key market metric – the LME cash-to-three-month spread – dramatically tightened, with the cash contract moving to just a $10/ton discount from $73 a few days ago ^[102]. Such a narrow spread indicates scarce immediate supply and eager buying of near-term deliveries.

Adding to the bullish copper sentiment, Goldman Sachs cut its mine supply forecast for 2025–26, estimating the recent setbacks (including Grasberg and others) will cumulatively erase 525,000 tons of expected output ^[103]. That is a sizable chunk (about 2.1% of annual supply) now potentially missing. Other base metals rose in copper’s slipstream. Aluminum prices pushed up to around $2,667/ton ^[104]. The lightweight metal’s market has been buoyed by output curbs (high power costs have constrained smelters in Europe and China) and steady demand from automakers. Zinc climbed to ~$2,947/ton ^[105], helped by low inventories and some production cuts. Lead breached $2,000/ton ^[106], reflecting improved battery sector demand. Tin, the electronics solder metal, remains elevated near $34,500/ton ^[107], amid chronic shortages from top exporter Myanmar. Nickel ticked up to ~$15,485/ton ^[108] – a modest bounce as stainless steel markets stabilize, though nickel is far below last year’s crazed peaks. In summary, industrial metals are benefiting from a mix of supply constraints and optimism that Chinese stimulus measures (e.g. interest rate cuts, infrastructure spending) will eventually support demand. For now, tight supply narratives are dominating: the copper story, in particular, underscores how quickly the balance can flip when a few major mines or smelters go offline.

Agriculture: Grain Prices Find Support as War, Weather and Policy Shift the Outlook

Global grain markets were dynamic but showed signs of bottoming out from recent lows. In wheat, prices rebounded after weeks of weakness. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures ended Thursday about 1.2% higher at $5.25¾ per bushel ^[109], breaking a slide that had taken them to contract lows. Multiple catalysts helped wheat tick higher. One was a pickup in international demand – several import tenders emerged as buyers took advantage of low prices to secure supplies. Notably, top importer Egypt was reported booking wheat cargoes, and there’s talk that China may need to import more feed wheat. Another factor is renewed geopolitical risk in the Black Sea. As fighting between Russia and Ukraine shows no sign of abating – and indeed may escalate as Ukraine strikes deeper into Russian territory – traders are nervous about grain export disruptions. While the wartime Black Sea grain corridor collapsed earlier this year, Ukraine has been trying alternate routes and smaller ports. Any further military flare-up or Russian retaliation could impact those flows. Additionally, the outlook for the next wheat harvest in the region is deteriorating due to weather. Large parts of Russia’s winter wheat belt are unusually dry at planting time, and sowing has fallen well behind normal pace ^[110] ^[111]. Analysts warn of a “very difficult” situation, potentially a sharply smaller Russian crop in 2025 if rains don’t arrive soon ^[112] ^[113]. Ukraine’s plantings are also constrained by the war and drought, with the USDA projecting Ukraine’s 2025 wheat output could hit a 13-year low, down 23% from this year ^[114]. All this suggests the world wheat supply cushion could thin again in 2025. Traders are now balancing that against still-ample current stockpiles – helped by a decent Northern Hemisphere harvest that wrapped up this month – but the sentiment has shifted cautiously bullish for wheat. Paris futures in Europe also firmed this week, reflecting those global undercurrents.

In corn, prices likewise got a lift. December corn futures rose to around $4.27½ per bushel, up nearly 1% ^[115]. The support here is fundamentally driven: the U.S. corn harvest is underway, and reports from early-yield areas (like Illinois and Iowa) suggest yields are coming in below USDA’s previous forecasts ^[116]. After a season of mixed weather – drought in parts of the Corn Belt, too much rain in others – the crop might be smaller than anticipated. Traders are debating just how much the U.S. corn estimate will drop in upcoming reports. The notion of a tighter U.S. supply, combined with steady export demand (Mexico recently booked large U.S. corn purchases ^[117]), has helped corn rally off six-week lows. Ethanol production is also absorbing a good chunk of corn, with energy prices high. Providing a counterweight, however, is the huge Brazilian safrinha corn crop that was harvested over the summer, which is flooding the export market. Brazil is on track for record corn exports, competing with U.S. corn into key markets. That competition kept U.S. corn somewhat range-bound until the harvest data gave it a boost. Still, if U.S. yields keep disappointing, corn prices could have more upside after a year of bearish sentiment.

Soybeans have been the grain complex’s laggard recently, but they too showed resilience. Chicago soybeans hovered around $10.15½ per bushel on Thursday, off the six-week low of $10.05 hit earlier in the week ^[118]. The soybean story is heavily influenced by South America and China. Over the past month, Argentina temporarily suspended its export taxes on soy and some other farm goods to stimulate sales (as the country desperately needs foreign currency) ^[119]. This prompted a flurry of Chinese buying of Argentine soybeans, since the tax break made Argentine supplies about 5% cheaper ^[120]. China, the world’s top soy importer, has been actively shunning U.S. soybeans – partly due to the trade war and hefty U.S. tariffs, and partly because South American beans are abundant and cheaper ^[121]. As a result, U.S. soybean export demand has been sluggish, weighing on prices. However, Argentina reached the cap of its $7 billion export incentive program and reinstated its soy export taxes mid-week ^[122]. With the waiver ended, that source of ultra-cheap supply is drying up. Chinese crushers rushed to book cargos before the window closed, reportedly purchasing over 20 Panamax loads of Argentine beans during the tax holiday ^[123]. Now attention could shift back to the U.S., at least until Brazil’s next crop. “This will keep prices under pressure, but the downside is limited from current levels,” one agricultural broker in Australia said of U.S. soybeans, noting that even with China’s pivots, soybean prices may have found a floor ^[124]. The ongoing U.S. soy harvest (about 10% complete) also adds near-term supply, but like corn, there are concerns U.S. soy yields may be a bit below expectations due to late-season heat. In the demand ledger, domestic crush for soymeal and soyoil remains strong, and soyoil got a boost as biofuel mandates keep usage high. One wrinkle: Brazil’s upcoming planting is slightly delayed by dry conditions in some areas (related to El Niño), which could tighten global soy supply if any hiccups occur in South America’s growing season. For now, soybeans are in a holding pattern – not collapsing, thanks to Argentina’s policy reversal and some bargain buying, but not rallying hard either given ample worldwide stocks and China’s continued preference for non-U.S. origins.

Beyond the main grains, soft commodity markets saw notable moves tied to weather and trade policies. Coffee prices are flirting with historic highs. New York arabica coffee futures spiked to about $4.24 per pound this week, a seven-month high and not far from the all-time record of $4.29 ^[125]. Driving coffee’s strength are tight stocks and trade disruptions. Exchange inventories of arabica beans have fallen significantly, reflecting strong demand and lower output from some key producers ^[126]. Brazil, the top coffee grower, had a smaller off-year crop, and concerns linger about dry weather potentially hurting next year’s harvest. Plus, the U.S. trade war has not spared coffee – Trump’s tariffs on many Brazilian goods (50% on most imports from Brazil starting August) have roiled the coffee trade ^[127]. Some buyers rushed to stock up before tariffs, contributing to price volatility. On the other hand, cocoa prices have cooled off after an epic rally. Just last month cocoa hit record highs above $12,000 per ton amid poor West African harvests and a bout of disease in crops ^[128]. But this week cocoa futures pulled back to two-month lows on expectations of a significant global surplus in 2025/26 ^[129]. Rainfall patterns in Ivory Coast and Ghana are improving, and higher prices are incentivizing more planting and investment. By mid-week, cocoa found support as industry buyers stepped in on the dip ^[130]. It’s a reminder of how volatile weather-driven softs can be: cocoa went from oversupply fears a year ago, to shortage fears this summer, and now possibly back to surplus forecasts for next year. Sugar (not specifically asked, but notable) recently hit 12-year highs due to India’s export ban and poor crops elsewhere, though it saw some profit-taking late this week. In sum, agricultural commodities are being buffeted by extremes of weather and policy – from El Niño impacts to export restrictions and tariffs – leading to heightened uncertainty but also opportunities for short-term rallies when news shifts.

Other Commodities: Critical Minerals and Fertilizers in Geopolitical Crossfire

Critical minerals like rare earths and battery metals took a central role in geopolitics this week. The Trump administration’s tariff barrage drew a pointed response from China in the form of export controls on rare earth elements – a move actually initiated back in April but still reverberating now ^[131]. Rare earths (a group of 17 obscure but indispensable metals) are vital for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter jets. China produces about 90% of the world’s rare earths and an even larger share of the refined magnets and components made from them ^[132]. By restricting exports of certain heavy rare earths (like dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, etc.), Beijing has signaled it’s willing to weaponize its dominance in these strategic materials ^[133] ^[134]. The April curbs – seen as retaliation for U.S. tariffs – have already started biting: European automakers reportedly faced component shortages over the summer, and some had to slow production until China fast-tracked export licenses in May ^[135]. However, Chinese authorities then “upgraded” the export license process in July, and by September European companies complained of renewed bottlenecks getting rare earth supplies, raising the risk of fresh production hiccups ^[136]. Western governments are now scrambling for solutions.

This week, Reuters revealed that G7 nations are exploring drastic measures to counter China’s grip on critical minerals ^[137]. At a technical meeting in Chicago, G7 and EU officials discussed setting price floors (minimum prices) to incentivize new rare earth mining outside China, and even targeted tariffs on Chinese metals based on their carbon intensity ^[138] ^[139]. The idea is to encourage investment in alternative supplies (e.g. mines in Australia, Canada or the U.S.) by ensuring those projects can be economically viable against China’s often cheaper product. Such price floors might be backed by government stockpiling or subsidies ^[140] ^[141]. The U.S. is also talking with allies about preventing Chinese “price dumping” of critical minerals, possibly via coordinated tariffs or procurement rules ^[142] ^[143]. The challenge is huge: building up rare earth supply chains outside China will take years. For instance, the U.S. has only one rare earth mine (Mountain Pass in California) and no capability yet to refine the most important heavy rare earths at scale ^[144]. The G7’s broader Critical Minerals Action Plan, launched in June, is a step toward reducing reliance on any single supplier ^[145]. In the meantime, industries from defense contractors to EV battery makers are nervously monitoring the situation. Prices for some rare earth oxides spiked when China’s controls were announced, though markets have since calmed as consumers tap inventories and China continues to issue some export licenses (albeit slowly). The rare earth saga underscores how trade policy and resource security are now intimately linked – commodities like neodymium or dysprosium, once niche topics, are being discussed at the highest diplomatic levels.

Another critical mineral in the news is lithium, crucial for EV batteries. A Bloomberg report (echoed by Reuters) said China’s battery giant CATL suspended production at a major lithium mine in Jiangxi province for at least three months ^[146]. This mine had been ramping up supply of lithium lepidolite, contributing significantly to China’s fast-growing output of the battery metal ^[147]. News of its temporary closure in September sent lithium stocks soaring in China ^[148], as traders bet on tighter supply driving prices higher. The lithium market has been volatile: prices for lithium carbonate in China plunged earlier in 2025 from last year’s record highs, due to oversupply and a cooldown in EV sales growth. But now with CATL’s mine offline and EV demand expected to re-accelerate (especially with Europe and China pushing new EV mandates), some analysts foresee a potential lithium deficit again next year. EV makers from Tesla to BYD are keenly watching lithium sourcing, and any prolonged outage or Chinese export restrictions (Beijing has hinted at curbing graphite exports, another battery material, as retaliation too). The battery metals space – lithium, cobalt, nickel – thus remains one where corporate moves and geopolitical maneuvers can whipsaw prices quickly. We may see Western governments add lithium and others to their “strategic materials” stockpile lists, much as they are doing for rare earths.

Turning to fertilizers, these often-overlooked commodities are vitally important because they influence food prices and farm economics. Fertilizer markets have been in flux due to the war in Ukraine and now the North American trade spat. This week U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted the issue, announcing a joint DOJ–USDA initiative to investigate why farm input costs (fertilizer, seeds, fuel, etc.) are so high and volatile ^[149] ^[150]. Many U.S. farmers are indeed feeling the squeeze: fertilizer is typically their single largest expense after land. The Russia-Ukraine war hit fertilizers hard in 2022, sending prices skyrocketing as Russia and ally Belarus are major exporters of potash and nitrogen products. Those flows were disrupted by sanctions and logistics, with Western nations wary of directly sanctioning fertilizer but shipping and insurance hurdles effectively curbing trade. By now, Russian fertilizer exports have partly normalized (often rerouted to Latin America, etc.), but prices remain elevated. Moreover, Trump’s trade war is adding a new twist in 2025. In March, President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on most imports from Canada – and initially that included Canadian potash fertilizer, which U.S. farmers heavily rely on ^[151] ^[152]. Though a one-month reprieve was granted for fertilizers, the uncertainty alone drove potash prices up sharply in anticipation ^[153] ^[154]. By spring, potash rose from ~$300 to $348 per short ton as buyers scrambled to secure supply ^[155]. Similarly, Canadian farmers feared retaliatory tariffs on U.S. phosphate fertilizer (which they import from Florida), potentially driving their costs up ^[156]. One analysis warned a full 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian potash could ultimately add over $100/ton to U.S. farm prices ^[157]. Nutrien, the Canadian fertilizer giant, even rushed extra potash shipments into the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline to build inventory ^[158]. Nutrien’s CEO Ken Seitz bluntly said the tariff costs “will be passed on to the U.S. farmer,” cautioning growers to prepare for fertilizer to jump as much as 25% in price ^[159].

So far, farmers have had no choice but to pay up, squeezing their profit margins especially as grain prices until recently were trending lower. Governments are starting to respond: the DOJ’s antitrust review will examine whether fertilizer suppliers or seed companies have been price-gouging or colluding ^[160] ^[161]. (This comes after years of consolidation in the agrochemical industry.) The USDA is also exploring emergency relief options to offset input inflation ^[162]. In Canada, officials temporarily halted a second wave of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. fertilizers to avoid further hikes ^[163]. Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus remain wildcards. Sanctions and port bans still hamper their fertilizer exports to some degree ^[164]. European natural gas prices (a key cost for nitrogen fertilizer production) are lower than a year ago, which helped nitrogen fertilizer prices ease from 2022 peaks – but gas is still twice its pre-crisis price, keeping European-made fertilizer costly. Looking ahead, the fertilizer outlook will depend on diplomatic developments (any resolution in Ukraine or trade deals with Canada could relieve pressure) and on energy prices. For now, farmers globally are caught in a pincer of high costs for fertilizer, fuel, and other inputs. The impact may be felt by consumers eventually through food prices, albeit with a lag. In short, even as we talk about high-tech commodities like lithium and rare earths, the humble commodities that feed the world – ammonia, urea, potash – are equally strategic. The current market underscores the interconnectedness of geopolitics and commodities: decisions in Washington, Beijing, or Moscow this fall are directly influencing the cost of both an electric car battery and a loaf of bread.

Sources: Reuters news reports and market data from Sept. 25–26, 2025 ^[165] ^[166] ^[167] ^[168] ^[169] ^[170] ^[171] ^[172] ^[173] ^[174] ^[175] ^[176] ^[177], along with analysis by commodities analysts and industry experts cited above. All information reflects developments and expectations as of September 26, 2025.