SoFi Stock Plunges on September 30

Late-September selloff: On Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025, SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI) shares closed around $26.04, down about 5.5% for the day ^[1]. That’s below the previous close of $27.55 ^[2]. The stock has traded in a 52‑week range of roughly $7.57–$30.30 ^[3], reflecting a huge rally from its lows. Even after Tuesday’s drop, SOFI’s market capitalization is about $33.2 billion ^[4].
Valuation metrics: SoFi’s trailing P/E (ex-items) is around 56.7× ^[5], and forward P/E about 89.9× ^[6]. Its price/sales is roughly 10.9× ^[7] and price/book about 4.5× ^[8]. These premium multiples reflect the company’s strong growth profile. By comparison, many traditional banks trade in the low-teens P/E.
Recent earnings: In Q2 2025 (reported July 29), SoFi posted record revenues of ~$854.9 million (GAAP) – up ~43% year-over-year ^[9] – and GAAP net income ~$97 million (vs. $7.95M a year ago) ^[10]. Diluted EPS was $0.08 ^[11], well above analyst estimates of $0.06 ^[12]. Fee-based revenue (non-interest income) hit a record $377.5M, +72% YoY ^[13], and membership hit ~11.7 million members, +34% ^[14]. SoFi raised its full-year 2025 guidance – now targeting ~$3.375 billion in adjusted net revenue (above prior ~$3.31B) and GAAP EPS ~$0.31 ^[15].
Product expansion: In July 2025, SoFi expanded its investment platform, adding private-market funds from Cashmere, Fundrise and Liberty Street Advisors ^[16]. This gives members (10.9M+ as of Q2) exposure to “pre-IPO” companies (e.g. OpenAI, SpaceX) via $10 minimum investments ^[17] ^[18]. SoFi’s Invest service already includes alternative funds (ARK, KKR, Carlyle, Franklin Templeton) and a BlackRock-based robo-advisor ^[19]. In August, SoFi also re-entered crypto trading (including Bitcoin Lightning Network remittances) and is tokenizing loans, reflecting broad fintech innovation ^[20] ^[21].
Analyst views: Wall Street opinions are mixed. Morgan Stanley (Sep 29) maintained an Underweight rating, raising its 12‑month target from $13 to $18 ^[22]. In contrast, Mizuho (Sep 18) kept an Outperform call and lifted its target from $26 to $31 ^[23]. Benzinga notes the three most recent forecasts (Morgan Stanley, Mizuho, Needham) average $26, implying essentially zero upside from current levels ^[24]. Separately, Nasdaq/Fintel reports that the average SoFi price target (as of mid-Sep) was about $21.15 (range $6–$31.50), roughly 24% below the then-$27.98 price ^[25].
Ownership and insiders: Institutions own roughly 50–52% of SoFi’s shares. For example, Fintel reports ~613.2 million shares held by funds (~51.2% of float), up ~11.8% from the prior quarter ^[26]. Top holders include Vanguard, BlackRock, and hedge funds like Susquehanna and D.E. Shaw ^[27] ^[28]. Insiders own only about 2.6% of shares ^[29], and have been net sellers recently. In mid-September, SoFi CTO Jeremy Rishel sold ~98.7k shares at ~$27.50, and SVP Kelli Keough sold ~10k at ~$27.86 ^[30] (total insider sales ~129,614 shares, ~$3.45M over 3 months ^[31]).

Stock Performance (Sep 25–30, 2025)

SOFI opened Sep 30 near $27.50 and slipped to close around $26.04 ^[32], down ~5.5%. Trading volume was elevated (~36.1 million shares that day ^[33]), compared to a 3-month average of ~1.48 million. The drop on Sep 30 extended a slight pullback from late-September highs near the $30.30 52-week peak (set earlier in September ^[34]). Over Sep 25–29, the stock was fairly flat: it closed $27.55 on Sep 29 (−1.5% that day ^[35]) and $27.98 on Sep 24. Tuesday’s decline lagged the broad market: the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up ~0.5% on Sep 30 ^[36] even as SOFI fell.

In the past year SoFi has been a strong performer – rising from ~$7.57 (its 52-week low) in early 2025 to the late-September highs, roughly a +250% gain. For context, Barchart reported SOFI was up about 180% year-over-year and ~53% in the prior month (July 2025) ^[37], thanks in part to new product launches and the company’s general momentum. However, recent analyst notes on Sep 30 suggest caution: one headline warned “Shares Down 1.5% – Here’s What Happened” on Sep 29 ^[38], noting that despite a recent Q2 beat, the stock’s valuation and slowfee-based revenue growth (per a MarketBeat snippet) were concerns.

Financial Snapshot

SoFi has shown rapid growth and is now GAAP-profitable. Key financial metrics (all 2025 values unless noted):

Revenue and earnings: 2025 Q2 GAAP net revenue was $854.9M (up 43% YoY) ^[39]. Non-GAAP adjusted net revenue was slightly higher ($858.2M, +44% YoY) ^[40]. GAAP net income hit $97.6M (diluted EPS $0.08 ^[41]) vs. $7.95M a year ago. For Q2, Wall Street analysts had expected ~$809M revenue and $0.06 EPS ^[42], so results were a clear beat. Earlier (Q1 2025), SoFi had GAAP revenue ~$771.8M and net income ~$71M ^[43]. SoFi’s full-year 2025 outlook was raised after Q2: management now sees ~$3.375B in adjusted net revenue and ~$0.31 GAAP EPS ^[44], up from prior guidance of $3.235–3.310B and $0.27–0.28 EPS.
Profitability ratios: Q2 2025 GAAP net margin was ~11.4% ($97.6M / $854.9M). On a non-GAAP basis, EBITDA was very strong (Q2 adjusted EBITDA ~$249M, up 81% YoY ^[45]). SoFi’s ongoing profitability is unusual among fintech lenders; for example, its free cash flow and return on equity have turned positive (ROE ~4.4% for trailing year) ^[46]. Note that trailing P/E (ex-adjustments) is ~56.7× ^[47], so investors are clearly valuing SoFi as a growth story despite only modest current earnings.
Balance sheet & deposits: SoFi’s CFO has emphasized a strong balance sheet: its student, personal, and home loans are well-collateralized, and credit trends have improved (annualized personal loan charge-offs ~2.83%). On the funding side, SoFi’s SoFi Money deposit base has grown to about $27 billion ^[48], providing a low-cost funding source. This large deposit vault also supports its lending and investment products. The balance sheet now carries moderate debt (debt/equity ~0.57 ^[49]) and abundant cash.
Products and segments: SoFi operates a “one-stop” model. It has: Lending (student, personal, home loans, plus a Loan Platform Business underwriting $2.4B in third-party loans in Q2 ^[50]); Technology Platform (Galileo – its fintech SaaS offering powering other banks – which also posted double-digit growth); and Financial Services (digital banking: SoFi Money, Invest, Relay, Credit Card etc.). In Q2, lending revenue (interest + servicing fees) still dominates (GAAP net interest + fee income of ~$814M out of $854M total), but fee-based revenue (trading, interchange, referral fees, etc.) is rising fast (record $377.5M in Q2 ^[51]). SoFi highlights that ~35% of new products in Q2 came from existing members, underlining strong cross-selling on its platform.

Recent News (Sep 25–30, 2025)

Late September was relatively quiet for SoFi-specific news, but a few broader items and industry notes are relevant:

Nasdaq analysis pieces: On Sep 29, Nasdaq published an analysis noting SoFi’s latest close ($27.55) and Zacks’ forecasts for upcoming Q3 (EPS ~$0.08; revenue ~$883M, +28% YoY) ^[52]. This piece highlighted that Wall Street analysts have modestly raised their estimates (Zacks assigns a #2 “Buy” rank and notes a PEG of 3.32) ^[53].
AI-themed ETF (Sept 8): Earlier in the month, Reuters reported SoFi is launching an AI-themed ETF based on an “agentic AI” index ^[54] ^[55]. This product, the BITA USA Agentic AI Select ETF (fee 0.69%), is a strategic diversification beyond SoFi’s typical banking products. It underscores SoFi’s push into hot fintech areas (AI/crypto) and was noted by analysts as entering a crowded ETF theme ^[56] ^[57].
Sector tailwinds: Fintech sector trends remain broadly positive. According to KPMG, global fintech funding totaled ~$44.7B in H1’25 ^[58] (digital assets and AI were especially hot). Also, digital banking continues to expand: a Statista projection notes digital banks will generate about $1.61 trillion in net interest income in 2025 ^[59]. SoFi, as a leading U.S. digital bank, benefits from these tailwinds. (By contrast, some fintechs are still struggling or overvalued – the mixed analyst targets above reflect that.)
Industry peers: Within fintech, SoFi competes with both legacy banks offering online apps and newer “challenger” banks (e.g. Ally, Chime, Upstart, Affirm, etc.). A recent BCG report notes fintechs still have vast opportunities in areas like consumer lending and crypto, but face regulatory scrutiny and capital constraints ^[60] ^[61]. SoFi’s diversification into non-lending areas (payments, investing, etc.) and its profitability set it apart from some competitors, but valuation remains a concern.

Analysts & Forecasts

Expert commentary on SoFi is cautious-to-positive:

Ratings and price targets: Out of 28 analysts tracked by Benzinga, the consensus rating is a “Buy” and the average 12‑month target is listed as just ~$14.86 ^[62] – apparently outdated or cautious given current prices. However, recent high-profile calls are more optimistic. Mizuho’s Dan Dolev reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his target from $26 to $31 on Sep 18, citing SoFi’s membership growth and expanded product offerings ^[63]. Conversely, Morgan Stanley’s Jeffrey Adelson kept an Underweight rating (on Sep 29) but raised his target from $13 to $18 ^[64]. For context, Fintel/MarketDesk reported the average one-year analyst target (as of Sep 13) was ~$21.15 ^[65], implying a ~24% downside to then-$27.98.
Valuation debate: Bulls point to SoFi’s growth (revenues up ~40% in 2025) and profitable model, suggesting it could re-rate higher. Bears note the forward P/E (~90× ^[66]) is very rich, and that SoFi’s growth may slow as base effects ease. Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s note cautions that SoFi is running into tougher comps and higher delinquencies in student loans. Overall, the median of the latest analyst targets (~$26 ^[67]) implies the stock is fairly valued here, barring more upside surprises.
Forecasts: Visible Alpha (industry consensus) had estimated FY2025 revenue ~$3.31B and EPS $0.28 ^[68] before guidance was raised. With guidance now higher ($3.375B and $0.31), Wall Street’s 2025 estimates may creep up further. For 2026 and beyond, analysts expect revenue growth to remain robust (expectations are for ~20–30% annual growth) given SoFi’s large addressable market. Some bull cases model 2026 EPS approaching $0.40-$0.50 if loan originations and fee businesses continue growing. Bearish cases argue for EPS in the $0.20–0.25 range if loan demand cools and competition rises. (For reference, one valuation table on Barchart suggested that at 40× forward earnings, a $36 share price by early 2029 would imply 60% upside from ~$$26 ^[69] – highlighting long-term growth optionality.)

Institutional & Insider Activity

Institutions buying: We observed some notable fund moves. According to Fintel/Nasdaq data, institutions increased their SoFi holdings in Q2: total “institutional long” shares rose 11.8% q/q to ~613.2 million (about 51.2% of outstanding) ^[70]. Major increases came from funds like Vanguard (+2.8% stake), UBS (+1.7% stake) ^[71], and others raising positions. Overall, ~1,072 funds reported stakes in SOFI ^[72]. This suggests hedge funds and mutuals remain interested in the fintech story – likely drawn by the strong growth trajectory.
Insider moves: Corporate insiders have been net sellers. As noted, CTO Jeremy Rishel and EVP Kelli Keough each sold stock in mid-September ^[73]. Over the past three months, insiders offloaded ~129.6K shares (~$3.45M) ^[74]. Current insider ownership is low (~2.6% of total) ^[75]. There were no reported CEO or director buys during this period. Lack of insider buying is not unusual for SoFi (founder Chamath Palihapitiya is no longer involved), but it does mean no one is stepping in at these prices.

Industry and Business Outlook

SoFi sits at the intersection of consumer finance and tech. Its “one-stop” model – combining loans, deposits, investing and payments – leverages cross-selling advantages that traditional banks often lack. Recent business highlights:

Lending strength: SoFi’s core lending unit continues to grow. Q2 originations (including SOFI’s Loan Platform Business) were record high ($8.8B Q2; up ~50% from a year ago) ^[76]. Mortgage originations have also accelerated with new products (home equity loans up 92% YoY in Q2 ^[77]). The credit performance remains good (personal loan delinquencies improving). However, rising rates and credit competition are headwinds that could temper loan growth.
Digital banking: SoFi Money (checking/savings) now has ~$27B deposits ^[78], up from virtually zero a few years ago. This deposit base is a funding moat and an asset-gathering channel. SoFi’s credit card and crypto-trading offerings are also gaining traction. Its spend/invest platform “Spend” (credit card) and “Relay” (financial management) are newer products driving engagement.
Fintech trends: Fintech analysts highlight several themes that play to SoFi’s strengths. For example, the use of AI and data for underwriting and personalization (SoFi is reportedly deploying AI “co-pilots” and fraud detection to cut costs ^[79]). And consumer desire for alternatives: the success of SoFi’s new alternative investment fund partnerships indicates strong member appetite for non-traditional assets. On the other hand, regulatory scrutiny (e.g. for crypto or student loan forgiveness policy) could impact SoFi’s roadmap.
Competitor moves: Other consumer fintechs (Robinhood, PayPal, LendingClub, etc.) have also been evolving their businesses. Many are pivoting to broader “wallet” offerings (e.g. investing, banking) just like SoFi. SoFi’s advantage is it’s already profitable, whereas several peers are still burning cash. Sector-wise, digital banking remains an expanding market (digital banking NII globally ~$1.6T in 2025 ^[80]). But competition is fierce – as noted by BCG, challenger banks and fintech lenders are fighting over a finite pool of loans ^[81]. SoFi’s ability to diversify beyond lending (into fintech platform services, ETFs, crypto, etc.) is a key part of its strategy to stand out.

Summary & Outlook

In summary, SoFi is a high-growth fintech stock that has delivered stellar revenue growth and turned profitable in 2025 ^[82] ^[83]. Its share price has reflected this success (up sharply from a year ago) but has recently pulled back from multi-year highs. On Sep 30 the stock sold off by about 5–6% ^[84], leaving it at ~$26. Analysts and investors are weighing both the strong Q2 results and rich valuation. Key near-term drivers will include SoFi’s upcoming Q3 earnings (expected late Oct), progress on its new products (AI/crypto/ETFs), and how the fintech sector navigates the higher-rate environment. For now, SoFi trades at a hefty multiple but also offers a diversified platform with some momentum. Investors should watch whether guidance surprises (up or down) and how competitors and regulations evolve in the digital finance space.

Sources: SOFI stock data from Reuters ^[85] ^[86]; Q2 earnings from SoFi SEC filings ^[87] ^[88] and Investopedia ^[89]; recent news and analysis from Reuters ^[90], SoFi press releases ^[91] ^[92], Nasdaq/Marketbeat articles ^[93] ^[94], and analyst/ownership data ^[95] ^[96] ^[97].