Nebius Group Stock Soars on Microsoft AI Deal, $3B Funding Plan & Analyses: What You Need to Know on 2 October 2025

Stock run‑up and 52‑week range: NBIS resumed trading on Nasdaq in October 2024 at roughly $14.29 and has since climbed to around $110 on 2 October 2025, approaching its record high of $117.65 ^[1]. The 52‑week range is $14.09 to $117.65 ^[2].
Market capitalization and valuation metrics: With approximately 236.5 million shares, Nebius has a market cap around $27 billion, a negative PE ratio around -202, and a beta of ~3.55, reflecting high volatility ^[3]. It trades at roughly six times expected 2027 sales ^[4].
Financial performance: Q2 2025 revenue more than doubled sequentially to $105.1 million, beating estimates and yielding a net margin of 99.34 % ^[5]. Analysts expect revenue to grow at a 231 % compound rate through 2027 to $4.25 billion, with EBITDA turning positive in 2026 and rising to $852 million by 2027 ^[6].
Microsoft AI infrastructure deal: In early September 2025, Nebius struck a five‑year AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion, potentially expanding to $19.4 billion. It gives Microsoft access to more than 100,000 Nvidia GB300 chips and sparked a 44 % jump in Nebius’ share price ^[7] ^[8]. Analysts see the deal as a long‑term revenue anchor and validation of Nebius’ AI cloud platform ^[9].
$3 billion funding round: To finance expansion, Nebius launched a $3 billion capital raise, including $2 billion in convertible notes and $1 billion in a public offering. Proceeds will fund additional compute hardware, land and data centres ^[10].
Analyst sentiment: Wall Street’s consensus rating is “Buy”; BWS Financial increased its price target from $90 to $130, Goldman Sachs maintained $120, and DA Davidson kept $75 ^[11]. Arete Research upgraded the stock to strong‑buy ^[12]. Analysts view Nebius as reasonably valued relative to its aggressive growth prospects, although they warn of cash burn and potential dilution ^[13].
Predicted opening price: Stock analysis website StockInvest.us predicted a fair opening price of $113.75 on 2 October 2025, downgrading NBIS to hold due to high volatility and advising investors to accumulate cautiously ^[14].

In‑Depth Report

Background and Business Model

Nebius Group N.V., formerly part of the Russian internet company Yandex, rebranded and listed on Nasdaq in October 2024. The company positions itself as a “neo‑cloud” provider offering AI‑native cloud infrastructure built on Nvidia GPUs. Unlike traditional infrastructure‑as‑a‑service vendors, Nebius combines GPU compute with managed services like Kubernetes, PostgreSQL and data‑processing tools, allowing developers to build AI models more easily ^[15]. It operates a Finnish data centre, leases colocation facilities in Missouri, France and Iceland, and is constructing a new campus in New Jersey while negotiating a UK colocation deal ^[16]. Nvidia owns about 0.5 % of Nebius, and the company plans to deploy Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs alongside existing H100, H200 and L40S chips ^[17].

Nebius owns or invests in several subsidiaries and stakes: Avride, which develops self‑driving ride‑hailing vehicles and delivery robots; TripleTen, an education platform for training software engineers; plus minority stakes in open‑source analytics database ClickHouse and crowd‑labeling platform Toloka ^[18]. This diversification offers potential optionality beyond its core AI cloud business, though the cloud operation currently drives most revenue.

Growth Drivers and Microsoft Partnership

The Microsoft AI infrastructure deal announced on 8 September 2025 is the most significant catalyst. Under the five‑year agreement, Nebius will supply Microsoft with dedicated GPU infrastructure from its upcoming Vineland, New Jersey data centre, giving Microsoft access to over 100,000 Nvidia GB300 chips ^[19]. Reuters reported that the contract could expand from $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion and described it as evidence of surging demand for high‑performance data centres amid a generative AI boom ^[20]. BWS Financial analyst Hamed Khorsand said the deal provides clarity on Nebius’ long‑term revenue potential and “de‑risks the company’s capacity buildout” ^[21]. Nebius’s CEO Arkady Volozh remarked that the contract complements its core AI cloud business and will accelerate growth in 2026 and beyond ^[22].

The partnership positions Nebius as a credible alternative to hyperscalers like Amazon or Microsoft’s Azure by enabling Microsoft to outsource a portion of its AI workloads. Analysts expect the deal to anchor revenue and attract additional hyperscaler or AI lab customers ^[23]. It also signals confidence in Nebius’ technology stack, which delivers fully managed GPU clusters with developer tools, differentiating it from competitors such as CoreWeave that focus solely on GPU‐heavy workloads ^[24].

Financial Health and Recent Results

Nebius reported Q2 2025 revenue of $105.10 million, more than doubling sequentially and beating consensus estimates ^[25]. Despite generating negative earnings per share (-0.38 vs analysts’ -0.41 estimate), the company achieved a net margin of 99.34 % and return on equity of 6.14 % ^[26]. Analysts expect full‑year 2025 EPS of -1.10, reflecting continued investment in capacity ^[27].

Earlier in September, Nebius announced a $3 billion capital raise comprising $2 billion in convertible notes and a $1 billion public share offering to finance new data centres, land acquisitions and GPU purchases ^[28]. The financing followed the surge in the share price triggered by the Microsoft deal; shares had risen roughly 245 % year to date before the offering ^[29]. Nebius indicated that proceeds would help scale data‑centre capacity from 190 MW to 1 GW by 2026 ^[30], a massive expansion necessary to fulfil long‑term contracts and meet rising AI demand.

Analyst Forecasts and Valuation

Analysts are bullish but caution that Nebius is still pre‑profit and will burn cash as it scales. MarketBeat reports that two analysts rate the stock strong‑buy, five rate it buy and one rates it hold, producing a consensus price target around $91.20 ^[31]—below the share price at 2 October, implying some near‑term downside. However, BWS Financial raised its price target to $130, while Goldman Sachs and DA Davidson maintain targets of $120 and $75, respectively ^[32]. Arete Research upgraded Nebius to strong‑buy ^[33], citing the Microsoft partnership and robust growth trajectory.

A Nasdaq analysis projects revenue to surge to $4.25 billion by 2027—a compound annual growth rate of 231 %. EBITDA is forecast to turn positive in 2026 and grow to $852 million by 2027 ^[34]. The report notes that Nebius trades at about six times projected 2027 sales, which is higher than rival CoreWeave but considered reasonable given its aggressive scaling and long‑term contracts ^[35]. The analysts caution that Nebius will continue to issue shares or debt to fund expansion, potentially diluting existing shareholders ^[36].

Third‑party forecasting site StockInvest.us predicted that NBIS would open around $113.75 on 2 October 2025 and downgraded it to a hold due to expected high volatility, advising investors to accumulate slowly ^[37]. The site highlighted technical support and resistance levels (about $107.63 and $119.87) and emphasised the risk of sharp moves around earnings ^[38].

Institutional Ownership and Investor Activity

Institutional investors own roughly 21.9 % of Nebius shares ^[39]. Recent SEC filings show that some hedge funds and asset managers—such as Signaturefd LLC, Assetmark Inc., LRI Investments LLC and Venture Visionary Partners—have increased their stakes in the company. The general trend suggests growing institutional confidence, though the stock remains volatile due to its early‑stage nature and heavy reliance on data‑centre buildouts.

Recent News Around 2 October 2025

2 Oct 2025, MarketBeat upgrade: The stock gained around 3 % after research site WallStreet Zen upgraded its rating. BWS Financial lifted its price target to $130, and Arete Research issued a strong‑buy call ^[40].
Late September 2025, Seeking Alpha & other analysts: A bullish report argued the Microsoft contract could make Nebius worth $138 per share, projecting revenue of $11.3 billion by 2027 and adjusted EBITDA of $7.4 billion; catalysts include potential monetisation of Avride and stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka (source behind paywall). Another commentary emphasised that the stock’s rapid ascent requires investors to monitor valuations and the risk of over‑dependence on the Microsoft contract.
9 Sept 2025, Reuters: Nebius shares jumped 44 % to $91.75 after announcing the Microsoft deal, highlighting demand for AI data‑centre capacity ^[41]. Analysts said the contract positions Nebius to win additional hyperscale customers and de‑risks expansion ^[42].
10 Sept 2025, Reuters: The company announced a $3 billion fundraising plan to finance its expansion, including convertible notes and a public offering ^[43]. Shares sold off slightly after the announcement but remained well above pre‑deal levels ^[44].

Risks and Considerations

Nebius’ trajectory is promising, but investors should weigh several risks:

Execution risk and capital intensity: Building new data centres, procuring GPUs and managing supply chains require significant capital. Nebius will likely continue to raise debt or equity, causing dilution or increasing leverage ^[45].
Customer concentration: The Microsoft contract represents a large portion of projected revenue. While it validates Nebius’ platform, reliance on one major client heightens revenue risk if the partnership falters or renegotiates.
Competition: Competitors like CoreWeave, Lambda Labs and hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft’s Azure are rapidly expanding GPU cloud capacity. CoreWeave currently trades at a lower multiple but may catch up if demand surges ^[46].
Regulatory and geopolitical risk: Nebius operates globally and emerged from Yandex’s restructuring, which may attract scrutiny. Geopolitical tensions or export controls on advanced semiconductors could affect its supply chain.
Market volatility: Nebius shares have a beta of 3.5, reflecting high sensitivity to market swings ^[47]. Technical analysts expect volatility around earnings and news events ^[48].

Outlook and Conclusion

Nebius Group sits at the nexus of two powerful themes: the surge in generative AI and the scarcity of high‑performance compute infrastructure. The Microsoft contract propels Nebius from niche player to major supplier, offering long‑term revenue visibility and attracting institutional attention ^[49]. Revenue forecasts imply exponential growth and justify aggressive investments in data‑centre capacity ^[50]. Analysts’ consensus price target indicates modest downside near‑term, but bulls see upside to $130–$138 if Nebius executes and diversifies its customer base.

For investors as of 2 October 2025, Nebius represents a high‑beta, high‑reward play on AI infrastructure. The stock is not without risks—especially valuation, funding needs and dependence on a single mega‑contract—but it offers unique exposure to the AI supercycle. Cautious investors may choose to hold or accumulate gradually, while aggressive investors may view pullbacks as buying opportunities, betting that Nebius’ capacity expansion and partnerships will translate into a dominant position in the neo‑cloud market.

Microsoft signs multi-billion-dollar deal with AI infrastructure firm Nebius