Skyrocketing Ondas (NASDAQ:ONDS) Stock: 26% Surge on $3.5M Drone Deal

Recent Price Action: ONDS stock has rocketed over the past week, closing at about $9.21 on Oct 2, 2025 – a +25.99% one-day jump ^[1]. After trading around the mid-$7 range in late September, it surged above $9.00 (intraday high $9.34 on Oct 2) ^[2] ^[3]. As of Oct 3 morning, the stock was near $9.47 pre-market ^[4]. This takes ONDS’s market capitalization to roughly $3.0 billion (with ~327 million shares outstanding) ^[5].
Key Corporate News: Ondas has announced a flurry of defense-related contracts and initiatives in the past two weeks. On Oct 2, it placed an order for 500 “Wasp” attritable drones from Norway’s Rift Dynamics – designed for U.S. defense perimeter defense ^[6]. In late September, Ondas secured a $3.5 million U.S. defense order for Apeiro rugged ground robots and payloads ^[7]. It also announced two veteran defense leaders joining its advisory team – Brig. Gen. Patrick Huston (US Army, ret.) ^[8] and British Army veteran Karl Eze ^[9] – to guide growth in autonomous systems and international defense markets. Other highlights include launching NDAA-compliant fiber-optic tether spools for drones (U.S. production Q4’25) ^[10] and raising fresh capital (completed $230M stock offering in Sept., net ~$217M) ^[11].
Financial Snapshot: Ondas is still in early-revenue, heavy-investment mode. 6-mo 2025 revenue was only $10.5 M (up from $1.58 M year-ago) ^[12]. Q2 2025 revenue hit $6.27 M (vs $0.96 M Q2’24) ^[13], but the company still posted a net loss of ~$12.0 M in Q2 (vs ~$9.4 M loss prior-year) ^[14]. For full-year 2024, revenue was just $7.19 M (vs $15.69 M in 2023) ^[15] and net losses $42.4 M ^[16]. Ondas had about $67.6 M cash on hand at 6/30/25 (pre-capital raise) ^[17]. Trailing-12mo revenue is ~$16.1 M ^[18], implying an astronomical P/S ratio (~58×) given the ~$3.0B market cap ^[19].
Analyst Ratings & Targets: According to aggregated data, the three covering analysts have an “Strong Buy” consensus rating, but an average 12‑month price target around $5.67 – ~38% below today’s price ^[20] ^[21]. Notably, Lake Street Capital recently upped its target to $8.00 (from $5) ^[22], though that still sits below the recent high. In sum, some analysts and models see ONDS as overvalued near term.

Ondas Stock Performance (Sept 26 – Oct 3, 2025)

ONDS traded roughly $7.3–7.9 in late Sept. It rose ~+2.7% on Sept 29 (to $7.87) ^[23], then slipped into the $7.3’s by early Oct 1 ^[24]. On Oct 2, news of the Rift Wasp drone order and other catalysts ignited a 26% spike: ONDS opened around $7.80 and surged to a high of $9.34, closing at $9.21 ^[25]. This is a fresh multi-month high (52-wk range $0.57–9.34 ^[26]). (On Oct 3 morning it traded near $9.50.) In essence, the stock leapt on strong government-defense deal news, reversing a mild pullback from its Sept highs.

Date	Open	Close	% Change	Volume
Sep 26, 2025	$7.70	$7.66	–1.2%	36.5M
Sep 29, 2025	$7.96	$7.87	+2.7%	68.6M
Sep 30, 2025	$7.93	$7.72	–1.9%	41.9M
Oct 1, 2025	$7.75	$7.31	–5.3%	40.2M
Oct 2, 2025	$7.80	$9.21	+26.0%	103.4M

Table: Recent ONDS daily trading (volume in shares) ^[27].

Recent News & Press Releases (Last 1–2 Weeks)

Attritable Drone Order: Oct 2, 2025: Ondas’ American Robotics announced it placed a 500-unit order for the Wåsp (pronounced “Wasp”) attritable drone from Rift Dynamics ^[28]. The NDAA-compliant Wåsp is a low-cost strike/perimeter defense drone. Production of the initial 500 will be done by Norway’s Kitron, with first deliveries expected in Q4’25 ^[29]. This expands Ondas’ U.S. defense product line beyond its own drones (Optimus, Iron Drone Raider) to include attritable strike UAVs for the Army/War Dept. ^[30].
$3.5M Ground Robotics Order: Sept 22, 2025: Ondas reported it secured a $3.5 million contract from a major U.S. defense entity ^[31]. The sale – under the Apeiro subsidiary brand – covers multiple rugged unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and payloads for logistics, ISR and combat missions ^[32]. Apeiro (acquired Aug 2025) supplies modular AI ground robots and fiber-tether systems. CEO Eric Brock noted this award “validates demand” for Apeiro’s combat-proven technology ^[33]. (This follows an Aug 2025 order for an Iron Drone Raider counter-UAS system.)
New Defense Advisors: Sept 23 & 19, 2025: Ondas added two high-profile advisors to its Autonomous Systems (OAS) and Ondas Capital teams. On Sept 23 it named Brig. Gen. Patrick Huston (US Army, ret.) to the OAS Advisory Board ^[34]. General Huston (35-year Army Ranger veteran and legal counsel) brings Pentagon/AI experience to Ondas’ drone/robotics strategy ^[35]. On Sept 19, it appointed Karl Eze (British Army major, ex-Goldman Sachs tech exec) as UK Strategic Advisor to Ondas Capital ^[36]. Eze’s role (based in London) is to cultivate European defense/tech opportunities for Ondas’ $150M investment fund. These hires underscore Ondas’ push into NATO markets and advanced autonomy.
NDAA Fiber-Spool Launch: Sept 18, 2025: Ondas’ Apeiro unit launched NDAA-compliant fiber-optic tether spools for drones and robots ^[37]. These made-in-USA spools (production via American Robotics by Q4’25) deliver “secure, jam-proof” comms over long ranges in contested environments ^[38]. CEO Brock called the spools “breakthrough” tech and a growth driver, noting U.S. manufacturing will capture “large-scale demand” from defense customers ^[39]. This adds a unique communications offering to Ondas’ “air and land” portfolio.
Capital Raises: Sept 9–10, 2025: Ondas executed a major equity raise, pricing 46 M new shares at $5.00 (including overallotment) to gross $230 M ^[40] ^[41]. Net proceeds were ~$217 M ^[42]. This cash infuses the balance sheet (cash jumped from $29.9M at 12/31/24 to $67.6M at 6/30/25 ^[43] plus new funds) but heavily dilutes existing shareholders. The offering likely helped fuel the recent “meme-stock” style momentum.

All of the above news items are from company press releases and filings ^[44] ^[45] ^[46] ^[47] ^[48], or from Nasdaq filings on the Sept 2025 share offering ^[49].

Expert Analysis & Commentary

Market commentators have mixed views on ONDS. Some note that professional and retail momentum is driving a short‑squeeze style rally (short interest ran ~4–5% as of mid-Sep ^[50], but daily volume is enormous). Seeking Alpha and stock-pickers highlight Ondas’ autonomous systems platform and strategic defense focus, pointing to the new contracts and its full NASDAQ listing as bullish signs. For example, one analysis observed the S&P BMI index addition and advisory hires had built momentum ^[51].

However, others caution that fundamentals are “not keeping pace” with the hype. Ondas still posts losses every quarter and has minimal recurring revenue today. As a stock, ONDS trades on expectations of future success rather than current earnings. Analyst consensus (albeit from only 3 firms) is Bullish/Strong Buy, but price targets ($4–8 range) lie well under the current ~$9 level ^[52]. Lake Street’s Max Michaelis reiterated a Strong Buy but only raised his 1-yr target to $8.00 (implying ~−13% from current) ^[53]. Needham’s Austin Bohlig initiated coverage with a $5 target ^[54], citing the long runway but very risky cash burn. In sum, experts note the upside potential if Ondas’ contracts win out, but warn of “high valuation” and execution risk in a complex defense market.

Financials & Valuation

Ondas is revenue-generating but far from profitable. Recent financials (all figures USD):

Q2 2025 (June 30): Revenue $6.27M (vs $0.96M Q2’24) ^[55]; Gross profit +$3.33M; Operating loss $9.25M ^[56]; Net loss ~$12.0M ^[57]. Cash & equivalents ~$67.6M ^[58].
H1 2025: Revenue $10.52M (vs $1.58M H1’24) ^[59]; Net loss ~$24.9M.
Full-year 2024: Revenue $7.19M (–54% YoY from $15.7M in 2023) ^[60]; Net loss $42.4M ^[61]. Q4’25 earnings are due Nov 11, 2025 (guidance not provided).

Balance sheet (6/30/25) shows ~$91.2M in current assets (mostly cash and $11.2M inventory of drone units) vs $31.5M current liabilities ^[62] ^[63]. The recent equity raise means pro forma cash is very strong (> $280M total), but equity is diluted (2025 common shares ~327M).

Valuation: At ~$9.20/share, ONDS’s market cap is ~$3.0B ^[64]. With last-12mo sales ~$16.1M ^[65], the P/S ratio is ~188×. (For context, most defense/tech firms trade P/S <<10×.) ONDS has no positive net income and no dividend. In other words, the stock is priced for “hitting the promise of billions in future defense deals”. This makes it a very high-risk play.

Industry & Market Context

Drones & Defense Tech: Global military UAV markets are growing strongly. A recent report (MarketsandMarkets) estimates the military drone market will grow from $15.2B in 2024 to $22.8B by 2030 (CAGR ~7.6%) ^[66]. Factors driving this include rising defense budgets, advanced avionics/AI, and demand for attritable strike systems. Ondas is squarely in this space, offering everything from surveillance drones to counter-UAS and combat robots. Its new deals align with trends: low-cost attritable drones (Wasp) and modular ground robots for logistics/ISR.

Counter-Drone & Connectivity: The broader “C-UAS” and AI surveillance markets are booming too. (One source projects the anti-drone market to triple by 2030 ^[67].) Ondas’s Iron Drone Raider and fiber-tether spools target these needs. Meanwhile, its Ondas Networks unit sells private wireless (FullMAX) for mission-critical IoT (railroads, utilities, etc.) – a more mature business that generated past revenues (~$15M in 2023 ^[68]). Growth in 5G/IoT and smart infrastructure offers a longer-term upside there, though that business has been slow.

Geopolitics: Eastern Europe and the AUKUS (Australia-US-UK) pact have spurred allied defense spending on unmanned systems. Ondas’s investment vehicle (Ondas Capital) is targeting Ukraine and NATO-connected ventures ^[69] ^[70]. The addition of U.S. and UK advisors reflects this strategy. In short, Ondas is betting on a multi-domain defense expansion (air, ground, sea) powered by autonomy and AI – a hot theme in Washington and Brussels.

Opportunities & Risks for Investors

Opportunities: Ondas has a broad product portfolio and is signing into multibillion-dollar defense channels. If its R&D and acquisitions pay off (Apeiro, American Robotics, Airobotics, Rift Dynamics), it could unlock a rapidly scaling revenue base. The NDAA compliance and U.S. manufacturing edges it into more contract eligibility. Its recent cash infusion (~$280M) means it can outspend smaller rivals to capture market share. In short, investors bullish on drones/AI may see ONDS as a high-upside lever on that trend.

Risks: The flip side is huge. The company is unprofitable and cash-burning, with a very low sales base. Its valuation is extreme, so anything short of blockbuster deal flow could send the stock down. Integration of multiple acquisitions is unproven. Ondas also competes (at much smaller scale) with giants like Lockheed, Kratos (KTOS), and even fellow small-caps like Draganfly or Red Cat. Tech delays or contract cancellations are real dangers. High insider turnover or execution missteps could spook the market. Lastly, with ~55% jump in short positions in Sep ^[71] (now >15M shares short), ONDS is prone to volatile swings from trading dynamics.

Investors should therefore be wary: this rally is partly hype-driven. Many analysts see downside from here (average target ~$5–6 ^[72]). At the same time, the company’s foot is on the gas in promising markets. Any upcoming announcements of orders or milestones (especially revenue-generating contracts) will be key tests of whether ONDS can grow into its valuation or not.

Sources: Company press releases, SEC filings, and market data ^[73] ^[74] ^[75] ^[76] ^[77]. Industry reports and news (MarketsandMarkets, Morningstar, etc.) ^[78]. Analyst consensus and price targets from finance sites ^[79] ^[80]. All stock figures are as of Oct 3, 2025.