- Stock Price: RGTI closed at $47.11 on Oct. 9, 2025 (up +8.98% that day) [1]. In early Oct 10 pre-market trading it was about $48.50 (+2.95%) [2]. This is near its all-time high (Oct 6 intraday $40.63 [3]) and vastly above the sub-$1 levels of mid-2024 – a rise of roughly 4,000% year-over-year [4]. The company’s market cap is now on the order of $11–13 billion [5].
- 2025 Surge: RGTI has been one of 2025’s top performers. The stock jumped ~84% in September 2025 alone [6] (falling just before Sept 30) and is up ~127% year-to-date by early October [7]. By contrast, peers like IonQ and D-Wave are also up strongly (IonQ +48% YTD, D-Wave +165% YTD) but with lower recent momentum [8].
- Big Contracts & Partnerships: In late Sept/early Oct, Rigetti announced ~$5.7M of new orders for its Novera quantum systems and a $5.8M U.S. Air Force quantum-networking contract [9] [10]. It also unveiled its new 36-qubit “Cepheus” processor (multi-chip architecture, 99.5% two-qubit fidelity) and new partnerships – e.g. a $100M+ Quanta collaboration (Quanta invested $35M) and an India C-DAC MOU [11] [12]. These “headline” developments, although modest in revenue, repeatedly fueled double-digit stock jumps as investors seized on any sign of progress [13] [14].
- Financials: Rigetti remains very early-stage. For calendar 2024 it recorded just $10.8M in revenue (net loss ~$201M) [15]. In Q2 2025 it had only $1.8M revenue and a $39.7M net loss [16]. It has no debt and ample cash: after an ATM stock offering it held $571.6M at June 2025 end [17]. Analysts forecast 2025 revenue ~ $8–9M and 2026 ~$20M [18] – huge growth rates but tiny absolute figures compared to its multi-$B valuation.
- Analyst Ratings & Targets: All 6–7 covering analysts rate RGTI a Buy/Strong Buy [19]. However, their price targets are generally well below the current price. The average 12-month target is around $20–24 [20], implying ~50% downside. Most targets are in the teens (e.g. Needham ~$18–20) [21]. Notable exceptions: Benchmark raised its target to $50 on Oct. 7 (Buy) [22], and B. Riley’s Craig Ellis has a $35 target [23]. This disparity suggests analysts are bullish on RGTI’s long-term promise but skeptical that fundamentals warrant the current price in the short term.
- Technicals: Charts show RGTI in a parabolic uptrend. It trades far above its 50- and 200-day moving averages (around $20 and $14, respectively [24]). ChartMill rates its overall technical picture a 10/10 (both long- and short-term trends up) [25] and notes it’s near its 52-week high [26]. However, the RSI is extremely high (≈88, labeled “overbought” [27]), and near-term support is only in the mid-$40s with resistance around $47–48 [28]. Analysts caution the stock could see profit-taking or consolidation after this run [29] [30].
- Sector Context: Rigetti is one of only a few public pure-quantum companies (others include IonQ and D-Wave). All have seen spectacular rallies in 2025 on positive newsflow, despite minimal revenue bases [31] [32]. (Barron’s notes that the quartet of Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave and QCi is up nearly 4× on average in a year, even though they “generate relatively little revenue” [33].) Big tech players (Google, IBM, Microsoft) also invest in quantum R&D, lending field credibility, but they are not stock plays.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. – Company Overview
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) is a full-stack superconducting quantum computing company based in Berkeley, CA (founded 2013 by physicist Chad Rigetti). It designs and builds its own quantum processors and integrates them into complete systems. Rigetti pioneered a “chiplet” approach – e.g. its new 36-qubit Cepheus-1 system is made of 4 linked chips, quadrupling its on-prem qubit count and greatly improving fidelity [34]. It sells quantum computers both via the cloud and on-premise: for example, its Novera 9-qubit machines (launched 2023) are turnkey systems for enterprise or research labs [35]. Rigetti’s platform (Forest/QCS) also provides software APIs, error-correction tools, and hybrid quantum-classical workflow support [36]. The company’s clients span corporate R&D, government labs and universities (e.g. Montana State University’s new on-prem Novera installation [37]). CEO Dr. Subodh Kulkarni (appointed 2022) emphasizes commercialization: he noted the Novera orders as proof of “increased demand for on-premises quantum computing systems as the industry matures” [38]. In short, Rigetti positions itself as one of a few leading pure-play quantum hardware vendors (alongside IonQ and D-Wave [39]), aiming to transition quantum computing from lab demos into real-world use.
Stock Price & Recent Performance
Rigetti’s stock has been on a tear in late 2025. After spending most of 2024 near $1–3 (post-SPAC low ~$0.73), RGTI surged in September – rising from ~$16 on Sept 12 to ~$28 by Sept 19 (+70% in one week [40]). It broke into the $30s late Sept, then rocketed in early October: on Oct 2 it jumped 18.6% to close at $35.40 (intraday ~$35.81) [41]. On Oct 3 it hit ~$40.63 intraday before settling near $40 [42]. By Oct 9 the stock closed at $47.11 [43] – 127% up YTD [44] and 4,000% above a year ago [45]. Trading volumes have been extremely high (e.g. 144 million shares traded on Oct 2 [46], triple normal), reflecting retail FOMO. Each big news item (new contracts or milestones) has triggered spikes in RGTI’s chart [47] – a classic “meme-stock” trading pattern. Even as RGTI ran up, it has often lifted peers: big Rigetti news has sent D-Wave +10–14% and IonQ +10% the same day [48]. Ultimately, RGTI has vastly outperformed both the broader market and most tech names this year; its +127% YTD gain (to early Oct) is well ahead of the S&P 500’s flat performance and even tops many “hot” AI stocks. (By contrast, IonQ is +48% YTD and D-Wave +165% [49].)
However, this meteoric rise has been volatile. The stock has shown pullbacks whenever it touches new highs – profit-taking is common among traders after such rapid moves. Chart indicators now show RGTI extremely extended: it’s far above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (~$20 and $14) [50], and its RSI is in overbought territory [51]. In other words, while momentum remains bullish, many technicians warn a cooling-off or consolidation could come. As one trading summary noted, RGTI is trading at technical extremes, so “it may be a good idea to wait for a consolidation or pullback” before jumping in [52] [53]. Indeed, ChartMill’s data shows clear near-term support only in the mid-$40s (around $46.6) and resistance around $47.6 [54] – levels RGTI is already testing.
Analyst Commentary and Market Sentiment
Analysts and market pundits are enthralled but cautious. On Wall Street, all the analysts covering RGTI rate it a Buy or Strong Buy [55], reflecting excitement about its quantum potential. Yet their 12‑month price targets tell a different story: the average target is only about $20–24 [56] – roughly 50% below the current price. That gap underscores skepticism that RGTI’s fundamentals justify this valuation today. In fact, most analysts have modest targets (Needham ~ $18–20, TipRanks consensus ~$21 [57]), implying the stock could retreat toward those levels. The lone outlier is Benchmark, which recently raised its target dramatically – now $50 (Buy) [58]. B. Riley’s Craig Ellis is also optimistic with a $35 target [59]. But the consensus view is that if the rally stalls, the stock could fall back well below these highs.
Among market commentators, the tone is mixed. Some see a once-in-a-generation tech opportunity: a Bank of America strategist called quantum computing “the most important technological race of our generation” [60], suggesting long-term winners could be immense. That bullish outlook has fueled retail FOMO: Rigetti has been labeled a “meme stock” with Reddit chatter and a new Roundhill “meme stock” ETF actually including RGTI in its portfolio alongside other viral picks [61]. However, others sound alarms about a speculative bubble. Barron’s recently noted that quantum names have surged ~4× on average without much revenue to show [62]. On TV, CNBC’s Jim Cramer cautioned that he “doesn’t know whether Rigetti is worth what it’s trading at,” calling it a “pure speculation” play [63]. One analyst bluntly termed RGTI a “lottery ticket” – meaning a high-risk bet that might pay off or crash [64]. In short, the stock is gripped by hype but also watched warily; commentators note every new contract or demo has sparked rallies, so continued momentum depends on constant positive news.
Recent Company News & Developments
Rigetti’s stock surge was accompanied by a flurry of company announcements in late Q3 2025 – often very small deals but enough to stoke optimism:
- New Novera Orders (~$5.7M): On Sept. 30, Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling ~$5.7 million for two Novera quantum computers [65]. These 9-qubit on-premises systems (upgradeable in qubits) were bought by a large Asian tech manufacturer and a California AI/physics startup [66]. Delivery is slated for 2026. While $5.7M is “modest” in itself, it’s huge relative to Rigetti’s tiny annual revenues (this single sale equals ~72% of the prior year’s revenue [67]). Analysts said the order “reinforced investor confidence in Rigetti’s transition toward commercialization” [68]. RGTI stock jumped ~16–19% on this news [69]. CEO Subodh Kulkarni called the orders proof of “increased demand for on-premises quantum systems as the industry matures” [70]. In other words, these were the first confirmed hardware sales to real industry customers – a milestone for a company still largely known for lab demos.
- U.S. Air Force Contract ($5.8M): Mid-September (Sept. 18) Rigetti unveiled a 3-year $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory [71]. In partnership with Dutch photonics startup QphoX, Rigetti will work on quantum networking: linking its superconducting qubit processors to optical photon networks for secure long-distance quantum communication [72]. Again, the dollar size is small, but it validates Rigetti’s technology. Kulkarni praised it as “an exciting opportunity to advance superconducting quantum networking” [73]. The stock popped ~11–12% on the announcement [74], and the deal signals that Rigetti can compete for high-profile government R&D projects (a positive credibility boost). (Notably, Rigetti’s peer IonQ has also landed major DoD contracts, highlighting the intense interest in quantum by federal agencies.)
- Technology Milestones: In August 2025, Rigetti launched “Cepheus-1”, its new multi-chip 36-qubit quantum processor [75]. This built a 4-chip module that quadrupled Rigetti’s qubit count over prior generations while halving two-qubit gate error rates (to 0.5% error) [76]. Rigetti touts Cepheus-1 as “the industry’s largest multi-chip quantum computer” currently available [77]. It’s already live on Rigetti’s cloud service and will be offered via Microsoft Azure. Kulkarni noted that scaling qubits while boosting fidelity is “the clear path towards quantum advantage” [78]. These R&D achievements don’t immediately generate revenue, but analysts have cited them as justification for optimism. (Rigetti is now targeting a 100+ qubit system by end-2025 [79] [80] – if achieved, that would be a big leap in the quantum race.) In short, Rigetti is demonstrating technical progress to reinforce its long-term story.
- Partnerships & Expansion: Rigetti has also been forming strategic alliances. In early 2025 it struck a $100M+ collaboration with Quanta Computer (a Taiwanese electronics giant), with Quanta taking a $35M equity stake to help scale Rigetti’s hardware [81]. More recently, it signed an MOU with India’s C-DAC (Sept 2025) to co-develop hybrid HPC/quantum systems [82] – aligning with India’s national quantum initiative. And as noted, the on-prem Novera at Montana State University (Aug 2025) is the first academic deployment [83], building a user base and credibility. These moves show Rigetti extending its global footprint. They’re primarily R&D and capacity-building efforts, but by broadening the ecosystem, they could drive future revenue. For now, each partnership announcement seems to bolster the bull narrative and has been highlighted in financial media as proof of momentum [84].
Overall, while none of these deals (worth ~$5–6M each) would hugely move the needle on Rigetti’s books, they have been market-moving catalysts. Every positive headline – order, contract, milestone, partnership – has sent the stock sharply higher. This reflects the current mood: investors are treating Rigetti as an “early mover” in a tech frontier. As TS2 summarizes, these wins “reinforced the narrative that Rigetti is making tangible progress (even if revenues remain small), which is crucial for maintaining enthusiasm in a pre-profit company”. In a way, the newsflow itself has become a product, sustaining the rally.
Quantum Sector & Competitors
Rigetti’s story must be seen in context. It is one of only a few pure-play quantum stocks. The most closely watched peers are:
- IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) – an ion-trap quantum hardware company. Like Rigetti, IonQ’s revenues are tiny (~$20–21M in Q2 2025) but its market cap ballooned (around ~$20B) thanks to big deals (e.g. contracts with Vector Atomic) and hype. IonQ is up strongly in 2025 (TS2 notes +48% YTD) but well behind Rigetti’s pace [85].
- D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) – selling quantum annealers (specialized QPs). D-Wave reported only ~$3.1M revenue in the latest quarter, yet it traded with a ~$10B cap. Its stock is up ~165% YTD (as of early Oct) [86], driven by its own contract wins (e.g. to integrate in NASA’s PACE system).
Both companies illustrate the pattern: massive valuations on minimal sales, betting on eventual breakthrough. Rigetti’s ~$11–13B valuation (roughly matching D-Wave’s) is similar to IonQ’s $20B and D-Wave’s $10B, despite all three having Q2 revenues in the low millions. All have been caught up in a 2025 “quantum boom” – see Barron’s, TipRanks and other outlets noting this “tech bubble” potential [87]. Other players: Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT) (photonics) also saw a huge run and even raised ~$500M (Sep 2025) for its projects [88], though its approach is different. Big tech giants like IBM, Google and Microsoft are advancing quantum too, but their impact on the pure-quantum stock plays is indirect.
In sum, Rigetti’s stock is moving in concert with a broader sector rally. When Rigetti shares pop, IonQ and D-Wave often climb in sympathy [89]. Investors are increasingly grouping them under a “quantum play” theme. This collective surge underscores that Rigetti’s fortunes are tied to the industry narrative: if “quantum computing” is perceived as the next big thing, Rigetti might keep rising; if sentiment reverses, it could drag the whole group down.
Financial Fundamentals
Digging into Rigetti’s books highlights the valuation gap. As of mid-2025, trailing revenue is still only in the single-digit millions. Rigetti’s Form 10-K shows 2024 revenue $10.8M [90] and a net loss of $201M. (For comparison, IonQ did ~$83M in 2024.) Q2 2025 results (ending June) reported just $1.8M revenue (down 42% YoY) and a $39.7M net loss [91]. In fact, Rigetti’s gross margins have fallen (31% in Q2 vs ~64% year ago [92]) as spending surged. The company has burned cash each quarter (operating loss ~ $20–25M per quarter recently) and has no revenue predictability beyond its modest backlog. On the balance sheet, however, it’s flush: after selling new shares, it ended Q2 with $571.6M in cash [93] and no debt. This “war chest” (coupled with early sales) gives the firm a runway for another few years of R&D spending.
Valuation metrics are extreme: at ~$47/share, RGTI’s market cap (~$12B) is roughly 1,100× its last 12-month revenue and far above any measure based on earnings (it has none to speak of). By comparison, even loss-making tech stocks rarely trade at such multiples. Analysts note this as an “astronomical” P/S ratio, underscoring that RGTI is valued purely on expected future potential. (In a similar vein, ChartMill comments that RGTI outperforms 99% of stocks by recent returns [94] – but its fundamentals are minuscule.) Long story short, the stock’s $12–13B cap today dwarfs any fundamentals, meaning that “investors are buying the dream, not today’s numbers” [95] [96].
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, RGTI’s chart is parabolic. It has broken out well above major moving averages and hit steep new highs on heavy volume. Chart analysis services give it very bullish ratings – for example, ChartMill rates RGTI’s long- and short-term trends as “up” [97] and notes it is trading near its 52-week high [98]. All of the major short-, medium-, and long-term simple/EMA moving averages are in “buy” position (with price above them) [99]. In plain terms, the technical indicators are green across the board.
That said, several signals point to an overheated condition. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 88 [100] – well above the overbought threshold of 70. ChartMill explicitly flags RGTI as “overbought” due to the high RSI [101], suggesting a pullback risk. Indeed, ChartMill’s own commentary cautions that “Prices have been rising strongly; it may be a good idea to wait for a consolidation or pullback before considering an entry.” [102]. Support levels are only slightly below the current price: ChartMill shows a first support at about $46.64 and resistance around $47.58 [103]. In other words, the stock is literally bumping up against near-term resistance.
In summary, the technical picture is one of very strong momentum but at the edge of a move. Many analysts who follow charts advise that after such a run, traders should expect volatility and possible short-term retracements. However, if news remains positive, the uptrend could continue to extend. All the same, the combination of extremely high RSI, massive recent gains, and thin near-term support argues for caution.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Short-Term: Given the current exuberance, the near-term outlook is highly uncertain. On one hand, positive catalysts (new orders, contracts, milestones) continue to appear frequently, and more could be announced. If every news event pushes the stock higher, momentum may carry further. On the other hand, the stock’s technical stretch and sky-high valuation leave it vulnerable to profit-taking. Analysts themselves have modest near-term targets (often below current levels), implying some expect a pullback. In fact, Wall Street’s consensus target of ~$20–24 is ~50% below the Oct 9 price [104]. That could mean those analysts foresee a significant correction unless new miracles occur. The disparity with Benchmark’s $50 target shows the range of opinions. Technical traders specifically warn of a possible consolidation before the next leg up [105] [106].
Long-Term: Over a multi-year horizon, forecasts are even murkier. If Rigetti can hit its roadmap milestones (e.g. >100 qubits with competitive error rates, and start generating meaningful revenue from commercial contracts), the upside could be enormous – perhaps justifying valuations many multiples higher than today. Some very bullish commentators (e.g. a recent Forbes column) have speculated RGTI “could be worth $350” per share or more if quantum computing takes off【43†】. However, such forecasts are highly speculative. Traditional analysts are more conservative: even the high-end targets (~$50) only imply ~ a doubling from today in 12 months. Others are pessimistic: generic price-prediction models (e.g. CoinCodex, Ultima Markets) suggest only modest gains into 2026 or even declines, reflecting the uncertainty [107].
It’s important to note that independent forecasting sites have given wildly different numbers (one predicts essentially flat at ~$47 by 2025’s end [108], another mid-teens by 2025【43†】), highlighting how unpredictable this stock is. For now, the consensus from financial analysts remains that Rigetti’s long-term value depends on delivering true “quantum advantage.” If that materializes, today’s valuation may look conservative; if not, the stock could fall sharply. As one TS2 reporter put it: RGTI is “sprinting ahead of its current reality” [109].
Multiple Perspectives: To summarize forecasts from various sources:
- Bullish: Benchmark expects $50 by late 2026 (Buy); some “best case” analysts imagine even more if breakthroughs accelerate. These rely on Rigetti capturing a major share of the nascent quantum market.
- Base-case: Most analysts see RGTI stagnating or sliding towards $20–30 in the next year, consistent with their target prices. They acknowledge the contracts and tech wins but say the valuation can’t hold without revenue to match.
- Bearish: A few caution that RGTI is extremely overvalued. TipRanks veteran Casey Dylan termed it a “lottery ticket” [110], and Barron’s explicitly warned of a quantum computing “bubble” [111]. These skeptics suggest downside risk if sentiment turns.
Conclusion
Rigetti Computing is at the center of one of the market’s hottest runs in 2025. Its stock has surged thousands of percent on the promise of quantum computing. All signs – from big gains to news coverage to analyst chatter – indicate a fervent belief in Rigetti’s future. However, this enthusiasm sits atop very fragile fundamentals. Current prices embed a hugely optimistic scenario, so the stock’s fate now hinges on execution: can Rigetti translate hype into real growth and profits?
For investors, the situation is a classic high-reward/high-risk scenario. Those bullish on quantum believe Rigetti is delivering critical building blocks (as seen in recent contracts and chip demos) and that early hype is justified. Those wary point out that until revenues catch up, RGTI’s share price is effectively a bet on a technology that may or may not pay off soon. As one analyst put it, “the stock’s momentum has outrun its current reality” [112].
Given the volatility, short-term trading calls will depend heavily on news flow and technical breaks. Long-term investors will be watching Rigetti’s next quarters closely for signs of actual sales and tighter roadmaps. In any case, Rigetti’s story is now inseparable from the broader quantum narrative – and it serves as a bellwether for whether speculative froth can align with real technological progress.
Sources: Company filings and press releases (via Rigetti investor site), TS2.tech analysis [113] [114] [115], Reuters [116], ChartMill technical data [117] [118], stock data [119], and various market news (Barron’s/TipRanks [120], Yahoo Finance, TipRanks, etc.) for all figures and quotes cited. All information is current as of Oct. 10, 2025.
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