- Price & Market Cap: As of Oct 9, 2025, NBIS closed around $132.64 [1]. That is up roughly +8.7% on the day and about +250% year-to-date [2]. Market cap is on the order of $25–30 billion, making NBIS one of the largest AI infrastructure IPOs since 2024. [3] [4]
- Sector: Technology – AI Cloud Infrastructure. Ebius (also known as Nebius Group) provides GPU-powered data center and cloud services for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads [5] [6]. It builds and operates AI data centers (e.g. Finland, Paris, Kansas City, Vineland NJ) and sells full-stack AI compute (hardware + software) to major tech firms [7] [8].
- Recent Performance: NBIS has been extremely volatile, with a 52-week range from ~$14 to ~$133 [9] [10]. The stock doubled on Sept 9 (to $91.75) when a $17.4B 5-year contract with Microsoft was announced [11], and it later hit new highs (~$130+) in late Sept/early Oct [12]. After a strategic $3.0B capital raise announcement (Sep 10) [13] [14] the stock dipped slightly but quickly rebounded. On Oct 9, 2025 NBIS closed at $132.64 [15], near its all-time peak. The stock has about 3–4× the volatility of the market (beta ~3.5) [16].
- Major Developments: In early Sept 2025 Nebius (formerly Yandex N.V.) won a landmark Microsoft AI cloud deal worth $17.4B (potentially $19.4B) [17] [18]. Soon after, Nebius launched a $3.0B funding round (Sept 10) to buy more GPUs and build data centers [19] [20]. In Aug 2025, Nebius reported Q2 revenue of $105.1M (+625% YoY) [21] and raised its full-year ARR guidance to $900M–$1.1B [22]. These developments – especially the Microsoft contract – have dramatically reshaped investor expectations.
- Analyst Views: Wall Street consensus is “Buy” [23] [24]. Targets were recently raised (Goldman Sachs ~$120, BWS $130) [25]. Some caution that NBIS trades above consensus targets (~$91 as of early Oct) [26], suggesting short-term downside risk. Zacks highlights Nebius’s stellar growth (revenue up 385–625%) and improving EBITDA, but Motley Fool warns the stock’s high price-to-sales and debt make it “a gamble” [27].
Company Overview
Ebius Group N.V. (Nasdaq: NBIS), commonly known as Nebius, is a high-growth AI cloud infrastructure company. It was spun out of Yandex N.V. in mid-2024 when the Russian internet giant’s overseas assets were split off; Arkady Volozh (Yandex founder) remains CEO [28]. Headquartered in Amsterdam, Nebius builds and operates GPU-powered data centers and a full-stack AI cloud. Its platform includes NVIDIA GPUs (H100/H200 and next-gen GB300 chips), software tools, storage and managed services (Kubernetes, databases, ML pipelines) tailored for AI development [29] [30]. Nebius’s stated goal is to be a “neo-cloud” provider, differentiating by offering fully-managed AI compute bundles rather than just raw machines [31] [32]. It already has facilities in Finland, colocation in the US, Europe and Iceland, and is building a 300 MW “megawatt” campus in Vineland, NJ for large-scale AI demand [33] [34].
The company’s leadership includes founder/CEO Arkady Volozh and experienced international executives (e.g. Chairman John Boynton). Analysts note Nebius is unique in targeting major Western tech clients: it counts Cloudflare, Shopify, and now Microsoft as customers [35] [36]. Nebius also owns non-core divisions (education-tech TripleTen, autonomous vehicles Avride) and stakes in firms like ClickHouse and Toloka [37] [38]. These may become future value catalysts, but Nebius’s core revenue driver is its AI cloud.
Recent Stock Price & Technical Summary
NBIS stock has surged since relisting on Nasdaq (Oct 2024). By early Oct 2025 it was trading ~10× above its Oct 2024 IPO price (≈$14). After the Microsoft announcement on Sept 8, 2025, shares shot up ~44% to ~$91.75 on Sept 9 [39], and later hit intraday highs around $132–134 by early October [40] [41]. On Oct 9, the stock closed at $132.64 [42]. Technical indicators show extremely strong momentum: NBIS has volatility (beta) ~3.5 [43], and has repeatedly jumped on news. It currently trades near its all-time high. Short-term volatility has been evident: e.g. a dip when the $3B offering was announced (shares fell ~5% pre-market on Sept 10) [44] followed by a rebound back above $130 [45].
In the past week NBIS has rallied further: Insider Monkey reports it gained +8.72% on Oct 9 to $132.64 [46]. Week-to-date change is roughly +10–15%. Overall, NBIS is among 2025’s best performers (+~245% YTD [47], vs. ~+30% for a tech benchmark). Yet analysts caution that the breakout is “momentum-driven” and the stock is now trading at a very high multiple of its modest revenues.
Major News (Sept–Oct 2025)
- Microsoft AI Deal (Sept 2025): Nebius agreed to supply Microsoft with dedicated AI GPU capacity for 5 years (base $17.4B, up to ~$19.4B) [48] [49]. This contract – to be delivered from Nebius’s new Vineland data center – provides Microsoft with over 100,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs for Azure AI. The deal rallied NBIS stock ~+47% in after-hours Sept 8 [50], touching a record high the next day [51]. Analysts at BWS Financial said the Microsoft contract “provides unprecedented clarity on [Nebius’s] long-term revenue potential” and “de-risks” its buildout [52] [53]. CEO Volozh emphasized it will “accelerate” Nebius’s AI cloud growth in 2026 and beyond [54] [55].
- $3.0B Capital Raise (Sept 10, 2025): On the heels of the MSFT deal, Nebius announced a $3 billion financing [56] [57]. This consists of $2B in convertible notes and a $1B public share offering [58] [59]. The use of proceeds is to buy more GPU hardware, secure power/data-center sites and land for new campuses [60] [61]. With demand for AI compute soaring, Nebius said it is on track to scale data-center capacity from 190 MW today to 1 GW by end-2026 [62] [63]. (NBIS stock dipped modestly on the offering news but rebounded within days [64] [65].)
- Q2 2025 Results (Aug 2025): Nebius reported Q2 revenue of $105.1 M, a 625% YoY jump [66]. This far exceeded Wall Street estimates. Net income swung positive due to one-time items, but on an operating basis Nebius still lost money. Notably, its core AI business achieved positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of schedule [67] [68]. Management raised ARR guidance to $0.9–1.1 billion by 2025’s end [69]. In Q1 2025 Nebius had reported $55.3 M (up 385%) and guided to $500–700 M for full-year [70]. This accelerating growth gave confidence to analysts and underpinned the rally.
- Infrastructure Expansion: Beyond fundraising, Nebius is actively building capacity. In 2025 it plans massive capital expenditure (the company doubled its capex plan to $2 billion) [71]. Its data centers span Europe, the US and Middle East, and new facilities are coming online. These moves help Nebius prepare for its multi-year contracts (MSFT and others) and for more client deals.
Analyst Commentary & Forecasts
Wall Street is bullish but cautious. The consensus rating is “Buy” [72] [73]. Recent price targets (Goldman ~$120; BWS $130; DA Davidson $75) are generally at or above the current price [74] [75]. However, many targets (~$90s consensus) lie below the stock’s current level, implying limited near-term upside to those targets [76]. Research notes emphasize both the promise and the risks: Zacks notes the “whopping” 625% growth and improving margins [77], while Motley Fool cautions the sky-high valuation (price/sales, high debt ~$1B) make NBIS “a gamble” [78]. A Nasdaq market report projects Nebius reaching $4.25 billion revenue by 2027 (CAGR ~231%), with EBITDA turning positive by 2026 [79]. At those forecasts, NBIS would trade at roughly 6× 2027 sales (above CoreWeave’s multiple) [80].
On technicals, analysts note the stock’s momentum is extreme. NBIS’s RSI and sentiment indicators are in “extreme greed” territory [81]. Many investors (and even retail option traders) are betting heavily on further gains. One source even notes heavy call-buying earlier in the year [82]. In short, experts believe most positive news is already priced in [83], so any disappointment (chip shortages, slower growth, dilution) could trigger a pullback.
Technical & Fundamental Snapshot
- Momentum: NBIS has broken out above its old resistance (~$120) on high volume [84]. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are climbing fast (not shown). Volatility remains high (option implied volatility is elevated), reflecting investor excitement. The stock is arguably overbought in the short term, given its recent parabolic rise.
- Valuation: Nebius is still in high-growth, loss-making mode. For Q2 2025 it reported adjusted EBITDA loss of $21.0 M (versus –$58.1 M in Q2’24) [85]. GAAP EPS was deeply negative (-$0.38) [86], and it carries nearly $1.0 billion of debt on its balance sheet [87] (up from essentially zero in 2024). Its equity is richly priced: e.g. price/book >700 (reflecting the small book value). In other words, fundamentals don’t yet justify the rich stock price, but growth trajectories are massive.
- Industry Position: NBIS is trading at double-digit forward price-to-sales (and very high P/EBITDA since it’s negative). This is higher than traditional tech peers. The stock’s valuation implies hyper-growth: current market cap ~30× last-12-months revenue. In contrast, older cloud companies trade at low single-digit P/S. This gap highlights risk: Nebius must continue delivering blockbuster growth to justify its valuation.
Competitors & Market Context
Nebius operates in a rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market. Key competitors include CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) – another NVIDIA-backed GPU cloud – which recently signed massive deals (e.g. ~$14B with Meta, ~$11.9B with OpenAI) [88] [89]. On the Nebius deal day, CoreWeave stock also jumped modestly [90]. Other specialized GPU cloud providers (Lambda Labs, Vast.ai, Runpod etc.) compete at smaller scales. More broadly, Nebius is effectively an alternative to big cloud platforms: hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud are indirect rivals/partners. For example, Microsoft Azure now outsources some AI capacity to Nebius [91]. Reuters reports Nebius “competes with technology giants like CoreWeave and Microsoft” [92]. In the wider picture, the global AI data-center market is booming: analysts forecast infrastructure spending could exceed $1 trillion by 2031 [93]. Nebius has secured one of the largest deals in this space, which gives it visibility and prestige against both niche peers and tech giants.
Risks & Opportunities
Opportunities: Nebius sits at the heart of the AI boom. Its Microsoft deal and other contracts mean multi-year revenue visibility. If Nebius can execute and convert backlog into profit, its growth could continue. The ongoing shortage of GPU capacity and surge in AI deployments may allow Nebius to raise prices or win more deals. The company’s “optionality” also adds upside – its non-core assets (TripleTen, Avride) could be monetized or spun off to unlock value [94]. Many analysts believe AI infrastructure demand has years of runway to drive Nebius’s expansion.
Risks: The biggest risk is execution and valuation. Nebius’s current price implies near-perfect execution of its expansion plans. Any delays in building new data centers, or higher-than-expected costs (power, chips) could hurt margins. The debt load (~$1B) and planned further financing expose it to dilution. Competition is fierce: if Google, Amazon or other players build their own AI capacity more cheaply, Nebius could face pricing pressure. Also, a market rotation away from AI hype could deflate valuations. As Motley Fool notes, NBIS is “expensive relative to sales” and thus a “gamble” for risk-tolerant investors [95]. Finally, unlike Nasdaq’s biotech index (NBIS ticker confusion), Nebius (the company) has no Russian operations, but any geopolitical sanctions on tech could tangentially affect GPU supply or financing.
In summary, Ebius (Nebius) Group NV is now a must-watch AI cloud stock. Its recent surge on the Microsoft AI deal and $3B funding round has made it one of the hottest names on Wall Street. The long-term outlook is tied to the success of its AI infrastructure strategy: if Nebius can capitalize on its marquee partnerships and continue growing revenue, the stock could remain a leader. However, the high valuation leaves little margin for error. Investors should balance the company’s explosive growth story with caution about its hefty costs and competition [96].
Sources: Public filings and news reports (Nasdaq, Reuters, TS2.Tech) [97] [98] [99] [100] provide the data above. All facts and quotes are cited to reputable outlets.
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