- Stock Surge: Rigetti (NASDAQ: RGTI) closed around $54.91 on Oct. 13, 2025 [1] (briefly hitting $55.23 intraday [2]). This marks roughly a +127% YTD jump by early Oct (far outperforming peers – IonQ and D-Wave were up ~+48% and +165% YTD by early Oct, respectively [3]).
- Major Contracts: In late Sept 2025 Rigetti announced ~$5.7M in new orders for its 9‑qubit Novera systems and a $5.8M U.S. Air Force quantum networking contract [4]. These modest deals, along with unveiling its 36‑qubit “Cepheus‑1” processor, repeatedly fueled double-digit stock jumps [5].
- Financials: Rigetti remains unprofitable. It booked $10.8M revenue in 2024 (net loss $201M) and only ~$1.8M in Q2 2025 (loss $39.7M) [6]. On the plus side, it has no debt and ~$571M cash (after a $350M stock raise) [7]. In short, sales are tiny and losses large, but the cash runway is strong.
- Valuation vs. Analysts: At ~$55/share Rigetti’s market cap is ~$11–13B, implying an eye-watering price/sales ratio >1000× [8]. All covering analysts rate RGTI a Buy/Strong Buy [9], but most 12‑month targets (~$20–24) sit ~50% below today’s price [10] (notable exceptions: Benchmark’s $50, B. Riley’s $35).
- Hype & Caution: Quantum computing is being hailed as “the most important technological race of our generation” (Bank of America) [11], fueling a retail frenzy. Rigetti’s stock has even been called a “meme stock” in this boom [12]. But critics warn it’s mostly speculation – CNBC’s Jim Cramer calls Rigetti “pure speculation” [13] and Barron’s notes its bubble may “keep inflating until tested by fundamentals” [14].
Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) shares have surged into the mid-$50s in October 2025. In late Sept and early Oct, announcements of new contracts and technology milestones repeatedly sent the stock higher [15] [16]. Analysts note RGTI is trading on future promise more than current sales.
Rigetti Stock Performance
Rigetti’s stock has exploded higher in recent weeks. On Oct. 13, 2025, RGTI spiked about +25% intraday to a record ~$55.23 (closing $54.91) [17]. This burst was largely in response to news that JPMorgan is investing $10 billion in “frontier” tech including quantum computing [18]. As Insider Monkey reported, “Rigetti Computing surged to a new record high… as investors snapped up shares in industries targeted by JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion investment plan” [19]. D-Wave and other quantum stocks also rallied on this news [20]. By Oct. 14 RGTI closed around $56 and in early Oct it was trading in the mid-$50s, far above the ~$20 range of mid-September. Year-to-date, RGTI is up roughly +100–130% (depending on start date) [21] [22] – an astronomical gain fueled by a few catalysts. For comparison, D-Wave (QBTS) and IonQ (IONQ) have also climbed this year (roughly +165% and +48% YTD, respectively [23]), while the S&P 500 is essentially flat. Rigetti’s recent volume has also jumped (TradingView data show daily volume in the hundreds of millions), reflecting frantic buying.
Recent Deals & Technology Milestones
Several headline deals and product news have driven the rally. In late September 2025, Rigetti announced it had booked ~$5.7 million in purchase orders for two Novera on-premises quantum computers [24] [25]. (One order came from a large Asian tech firm and the other from a California AI startup [26].) These Novera units (each 9-qubit and upgradeable) are to be delivered in H1 2026. Simultaneously, Rigetti revealed a 3-year, $5.8M U.S. Air Force contract (via a Quantum Networking collaboration) [27]. Though small in revenue, the Novera and USAF announcements “reinforced investor confidence” and triggered big jumps – Rigetti’s stock rallied ~16% the day the Novera news broke [28] [29].
On the tech side, Rigetti rolled out its new 36-qubit “Cepheus‑1” multi-chip processor in August 2025. Cepheus‑1 (four 9-qubit chiplets) achieves 99.5% two-qubit fidelity [30] and is accessible via Rigetti’s cloud (and soon on Microsoft Azure [31]). Rigetti says this processor “has facilitated its goal of introducing a 100+ qubit system by the end of 2025” [32]. CEO Subodh Kulkarni highlights that Rigetti’s superconducting qubits “leverage… chiplets” to scale to higher qubit counts [33].
Rigetti has also been expanding partnerships: Taiwan’s Quanta Computer invested $35M into Rigetti this year (part of a larger $100M+ collaboration) [34]. In September it signed an MOU with India’s C-DAC to co-develop hybrid quantum-classical systems [35]. And in August 2025 Montana State University installed Rigetti’s first on-campus Novera unit for research [36]. All these deals – though mostly R&D or pilot projects – have kept Rigetti in the headlines and helped sustain the stock momentum. As TechStock² noted, these “headline developments, although modest in revenue, repeatedly fueled double-digit stock jumps… as investors seized on any sign of progress” [37].
Financial Snapshot
Despite the hype, Rigetti’s financials remain in early-stage startup mode. For all of 2024 it recorded just ~$10.8M in revenue (with a net loss of $201M) [38]. In Q2 2025 (ended June), revenue was only $1.8M and the net loss ~$39.7M [39]. Rigetti had no debt and about $571.6M in cash at June 30, 2025 (after a $350M at-the-market stock raise) [40]. This cash cushion means the company can keep burning money on R&D for now, but on a revenue basis it’s negligible (year-to-date 2025 sales total only a few million). One analysis quips that with ~$11–13B market cap the stock trades at a staggering “P/S well over 1000×” [41]. In short, Wall Street is valuing Rigetti on its growth potential rather than its current operations.
Quantum Computing Industry Trends & Peers
Rigetti’s ride is part of a broader quantum stock mania. Pure-play quantum names have seen rocket-like gains in 2025 – e.g. Ts2 reports show IonQ up ~700% YOY, D-Wave ~2,000%, and Rigetti ~4,000% as of mid-October [42]. Media have noted that many of these stocks have surged “4×” or more despite “relatively little revenue” [43]. The optimism is underpinned by big forecasts: McKinsey projects the quantum market could jump from ~$1B today to ~$72B by 2035 [44]. Governments and tech giants are plowing money in (e.g. JPMorgan’s $10B plan, EU and US R&D funding, etc.). But none of the pure-plays are profitable yet.
For context, competitors and tech leaders tell a similar story. IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has also rallied; its stock near $93 in mid-Oct 2025. In fact, IonQ executed a massive $2.0B stock offering on Oct 10 (16.5M shares at $93 plus warrants) to fund growth [45] – the largest single institutional quantum raise ever. IonQ (a trapped-ion system firm) now has market cap on the order of $25–30B. D-Wave (QBTS) likewise has seen gains on its own news: its Q2 FY2025 revenue was $3.1M (up 42% YoY) with a $167M loss, and it ended the quarter with $819M cash after a $400M raise [46]. D-Wave’s Advantage2 annealing computer rollout and international expansion (e.g. first user conference in Japan) have been highlighted by management [47].
Meanwhile, large tech companies (IBM, Google, Microsoft, etc.) continue quantum R&D: IBM unveiled a 433-qubit “Osprey” processor in 2022 [48] and aims for 4,000+ qubits by 2025 [49]. (IBM’s stock has also recently hit multi-year highs as it invests in AI and quantum [50].) These incumbents have deep pockets and are not reliant on bubble valuations. Rigetti, by contrast, is a pure-play stock completely driven by investor sentiment.
Rigetti’s superconducting quantum approach (left) contrasts with D-Wave’s quantum annealing (right) and IonQ’s trapped-ion systems. All three saw huge share-price gains in 2025. Rigetti’s challenges – tiny revenue and high R&D burn – mirror those of its quantum peers [51] [52].
Analyst Outlook & Expert Commentary
Analysts and pundits are divided on Rigetti. Wall Street is nominally bullish: all the covering analysts rate RGTI a Buy or Strong Buy [53]. However, the average 12-month price target is only ~$20–24 [54] – roughly flat or even lower than current levels, implying significant downside if the stock reverts. (By contrast, only Benchmark’s recent $50 target and B. Riley’s $35 target exceed the mid-$50s price.) As TipRanks notes, some see double-digit upside in related plays, but the consensus target for Rigetti suggests investors should be cautious.
In public comments, CEO Subodh Kulkarni stresses Rigetti is focused on technology milestones: “We are four to five years from real commercial value of quantum computing… at this point it’s all about technology development” [55]. On CNBC, Jim Cramer has oscillated in his view – he once derided RGTI as “the worst quantum play,” then in Aug 2025 said it “could have something… a home run” [56]. Most recently, Cramer warned he “doesn’t know whether [Rigetti] is worth what it’s trading at,” calling it “pure speculation” [57]. Barron’s columnist has likewise cautioned that the rally is a bubble that may “keep inflating until it is tested by fundamentals” [58]. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore goes further: he projects up to ~60% price drops for Rigetti and IonQ if the quantum hype fades [59].
Still, some strategists remain optimistic long-term. As one Bank of America strategist put it, quantum computing may be the “most important technological race” in decades [60], arguing that today’s breakthroughs (and investments) could eventually justify current valuations. In sum, investors are “buying a vision of the future” [61]. Whether that vision pays off – or Rigetti’s parabolic run ends with a crash – remains to be seen.
Analysts’ Price Targets and Projections
Consensus 12-month targets are roughly flat to modestly above today’s levels. Public.com reports 5 analysts on RGTI: 80% rate it Strong Buy and 20% Buy [62], but their average target is only ~$20 [63]. (Zacks/MarketBeat show similar ~19–21 targets.) The most bullish on the street is B. Riley ($35) and Benchmark ($50) [64] – both emphasizing Rigetti’s long-term growth potential. Many others see downside risk. As one report warns, current prices “embed aggressive future growth” that “isn’t yet realized” [65]. Investors should weigh the near-term overheat against multi-year forecasts: for example, McKinsey expects the quantum market to hit ~$72B by 2035 [66] (a figure that underpins some analysts’ faith in stocks like Rigetti). But for now, most analysts treat RGTI as a highly speculative “lottery ticket” – all upside if success comes, but prone to collapse if progress stalls.
Sources: Rigetti filings and press releases; TechStock² and other tech media; Nasdaq/Motley Fool [67]; Insider Monkey [68]; Nasdaq Financial News; CNBC interviews [69] [70]; analyst reports (TipRanks, Zacks, MarketBeat, Public.com); DatacenterDynamics [71]; IBM Newsroom [72] [73]; IonQ investor releases [74]; and other reputable financial news outlets. All figures as of Oct. 14, 2025.
References
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