- Year-to-date surge: Reddit’s share price (NYSE: RDDT) has exploded more than +240% in 2025, far outpacing major indices [1] [2]. After a mid-September peak near ~$283, RDDT pulled back into the low $190s by Oct 17 [3] [4]. On Oct 17 it closed $194.95 [5].
- Strong earnings: In Q2 FY2025, Reddit reported $500M revenue (+78% YoY) and $89M net income (EPS $0.45), fueled by an 84% jump in ad sales [6] [7]. Daily active users (DAUs) hit ~110 million (up 21% YoY) [8] [9], marking the first profitable quarter since the 2024 IPO.
- Bullish outlook: Management forecasts Q3 revenue of $535–545 M (vs. ~$473 M consensus) [10] [11]. Wall Street is mostly positive: analysts have a “Moderate Buy” consensus with 12‑month targets averaging about $202 [12] [13]. Recent upgrades lifted targets – e.g. Raymond James to $250 [14], Truist to $260 [15], Piper Sandler/Needham/Jefferies up to ~$300 [16] [17].
- Valuation caution: Reddit trades at very rich multiples – roughly 24× price/sales and ~200× forward P/E [18] [19], far above peers like Snap or Pinterest. Short interest is also high (~16–18%) [20]. Some analysts warn that lofty expectations mean any slowdown (e.g. in AI-driven growth or user engagement) could trigger a sharp pullback.
- AI-driven ad strategy: Reddit has introduced new AI-powered advertising tools and search features, and has AI-content deals with Google and OpenAI [21] [22]. Its COO Jen Wong notes that advertisers are flocking to platforms (Reddit, Meta, TikTok) with “advanced AI-powered tools” for ad creation [23]. AI analysts (e.g. Emarketer’s Jeremy Goldman) praise Reddit’s user-driven ad formats: “Reddit just turned in a quarter that would make even its harshest subreddit proud,” he quipped [24].
- TikTok ripple effect: The social media landscape shift is dramatic: Trump’s administration recently greenlit a US sale of TikTok’s assets at a $14 billion valuation [25] – far below some prior estimates. That development (and politically-driven upheaval) has investors reassessing all social apps. SimplyWallSt notes that TikTok’s woes have injected uncertainty into advertisers’ plans, adding “fresh questions about Reddit’s position” in the media landscape [26].
Surging Stock Amid Strong Earnings
Reddit’s market debut in March 2024 was modest, but 2025 has been remarkable. After the IPO, RDDT shares have now climbed 6× from launch, gaining over 240% since January [27] [28]. (By comparison, the Nasdaq is up ~20%). The sharp rally reflected back-to-back beats on revenue and user metrics. In late July 2025, Reddit reported Q2 revenue of $500M, up 78% YoY, with ad sales of $465M (+84%) [29] [30]. Net income turned positive ($89M vs a loss year-ago) [31] [32], and ad ARPU jumped ~47% YoY [33]. These results exceeded Street estimates handily. The company also announced expanded machine-translation support (23 languages) and other user-growth initiatives [34].
Management guided Q3 revenue even higher: $535–545M [35] (vs ~$473M consensus). This mirrors broader industry trends: Meta and Alphabet had also reported robust ad revenue and optimistic guidance. Reuters highlights that “advertisers are increasingly turning to platforms such as Reddit, Meta and TikTok, which offer advanced AI-powered tools for ad creation” [36]. Reddit itself launched two new AI ad features in mid-2025 to tap into community conversations [37], and it is in talks with Google to renegotiate content-sharing for AI products [38], aiming to embed more Reddit content into Google’s AI Overviews.
Analysts have taken note. Piper Sandler, Needham, Jefferies and others have all raised price targets. According to MarketBeat data cited by TechStock², the average 12-month target is about $201–202 [39] [40], with a handful of bulls as high as $290–$300. Raymond James (on Oct 20) upgraded RDDT to Strong Buy and bumped its target from $225 to $250 [41]. Truist hiked its target to $260 expecting strong Q3 results [42], and Citizens Financial (Andrew Boone) reiterated Market Outperform at $300, citing effective advertising for “long-consideration” products [43].
Even so, most models have RDDT at a premium valuation. Price/sales is ~24× [44], compared to ~6× for Snapchat and much lower for Facebook/Meta. Trailing P/E (after recent profits) is near 200–210× [45]. RBC Capital pointed out this disparity: Reddit’s projected 12-month P/E (~197×) dwarfs Snap’s ~27× and Pinterest’s ~20× [46]. The stock has ~16–18% of float sold short [47]. Such a high valuation means growth must remain sizzling to justify the price.
Volatility from AI and Google Traffic
Reddit’s high beta (~2.2) leads to wild swings on any news. The stock peaked at $282.95 on Sept 18 – a 52-week high [48] – only to drop into the low $190s by mid-October [49] [50]. A key trigger was concern over content licensing and search trends. Reports in late September revealed that Google’s new AI Overviews (search summaries generated by AI) were citing far fewer Reddit threads. MarketBeat’s Jordan Chussler noted that Reddit citations in ChatGPT fell from ~14% to ~2% [51]. In practical terms, less AI-driven search traffic or fewer “Reddit” links could dent visitor counts. On this news, RDDT plunged about 16% in late September [52] [53].
Analysts stress this is a short-term worry. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told Reuters in Feb 2025 that Google traffic recovered in Q1 [54]. Indeed, Danni Hewson (AJ Bell) argues that Reddit’s unique community conversations should continue to attract advertisers even if search referrals fluctuate: focusing on user intent “positions it to unlock new monetization opportunities” [55]. Piper Sandler analysts also noted that US DAUs were “holding steady” [56], implying core engagement is stable despite global search noise.
Moreover, Reddit is diversifying. In September, it rolled out “Dynamic Product Ads” and expanded its “Reddit Answers” AI search tool [57]. It also appointed agency Aleph to sell ads in 45+ markets worldwide [58]. These moves aim to increase ad load and premium formats in its feed. Raymond James forecasts that home-feed ad load could double (from 13% to ~17%) to still-be-low levels compared to peers [59]. RBC Capital’s latest report noted Reddit’s ad load grew in “low-double-digits – more than peers” [60], buoying confidence in continued revenue gains.
Still, RBC and others flag a risk: daily active users (DAU) growth has been decelerating. After 47% DAU growth in Q1 ’25, Q4 ’24–Q1 ’25 growth slowed, and now stands at ~21% [61] [62]. RBC warned its SimilarWeb data showed “declining daily active users,” and Google’s indexing cuts sent Reddit’s ChatGPT citation share down to ~5% [63]. In short, if user metrics plateau, Reddit may have to drive more revenue per user via ads. This explains the market’s reaction: the share pullback in early October was seen by analysts as a buying opportunity given still-robust monetization [64].
TikTok Shakeup and Social Media Context
Reddit’s fortunes must also be viewed against the wider social-media landscape. In late September, U.S. leaders effectively approved the sale of TikTok’s American operations for about $14 billion [65]. This figure – confirmed by VP J.D. Vance – was far below earlier $30–40B analyst guesses (e.g. Wedbush’s Dan Ives said $30–$40B without the algorithm [66]). For Reddit, a long-form community platform, the TikTok drama underscores the volatility of tech valuations and regulatory risk in social media.
The $14B TikTok deal has mixed implications. On one hand, it suggests deep-pocketed investors (Michael Dell, Rupert Murdoch, Oracle, Silver Lake, etc. mentioned [67]) still see value in social advertising – albeit maybe less than feared. On the other hand, TikTok’s ordeal shows how government intervention can upend companies. As Simply Wall St observes, “recent headlines about rival social media players” like TikTok “introduce fresh questions about Reddit’s position in the landscape” [68]. Advertisers may reassess budgets between platforms, and any shake-up at big players can spill over to smaller ones. (Notably, each platform competes fiercely for ad dollars.)
Additionally, the broader AI bubble theme colors sentiment. TechStock² and Reuters highlight that AI speculation has driven stock prices skyward – but some investors (like BofA survey respondents) worry we may be in a bubble [69] [70]. Nvidia’s trillion-dollar valuation and AMD’s recent $100B+ chip deal are part of that mania. Reddit fits into this hype cycle because it’s positioned as an “AI data” stock (content licensing to Google/OpenAI, a future AI search feature, etc.). Any cooling in AI exuberance could hurt sentiment, though our sources suggest Reddit’s core ad business remains strong for now.
Expert Views and Price Targets
Wall Street experts are largely bullish but cautious. As of mid-Oct, consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” (around 14 Buys, 9 Holds) [71] [72]. Key analyst takes include:
- Jen Wong (Reddit COO): Highlighted that existing advertisers (who know Reddit’s communities) are growing spend, and new “AI-powered ad features” will help brands tap into conversations [73] [74]. Her comments underline confidence in Reddit’s ad tool arsenal.
- Jeremy Goldman (eMarketer): Praised the Q2 earnings, saying the quarter “would make even its harshest subreddit proud” [75]. He and others note that Reddit’s authentic community content allows highly targeted ads – valuable to marketers.
- Danni Hewson (AJ Bell): Argued Reddit’s advertising gets a boost from understanding user intent in niche forums [76]. She implies that even without explosive user growth, each user can be monetized more effectively through AI tools and unique ads.
- Susannah Streeter (Hargreaves Lansdown): On the flip side, she warned that Google’s AI Overviews “offer a more diversified digest of topics” which could reduce traffic to big sites like Reddit [77]. This viewpoint captured investor anxiety over the ChatGPT and Google effect.
- Piper Sandler analysts: Noted that U.S. DAUs held steady in Q2 despite the Google headwind, suggesting Reddit’s content still drives search interest [78]. They also see the search and new products as promising.
- RBC Capital: Issued two reports in mid-Oct. It raised its Reddit target to $245 [79], emphasizing ad-load growth. It did caution that declining ChatGPT citations (from ~29% to 5%) and user metrics create some uncertainty [80]. RBC believes, however, that current fundamentals warrant the high valuation – “continued revenue outperformance outweighs any short-term risks” [81].
- Investing.com report: Highlights several recent upgrades (based on the Raymond James note). It also notes a Citizens Financial analyst sees Reddit as undervalued long-term, and Truist expects big Q3 results [82]. These analysts cite the “ongoing advertising momentum” and eventual monetization of features like AI Search/Answer as drivers of upside [83].
In sum, the expert consensus is that Reddit’s growth runway remains steep. Forecast models (compiled by TradingNews and others) anticipate roughly +60% full-year 2025 revenue growth (~$2.07B) and EPS rising from ~$1.87 (2025) to ~$3.08 (2026) [84]. Analysts like Goldman and Hewson view the pullback as temporary. They remind investors that after two quarters of profitability, Reddit is proving it can convert traffic into cash.
Risks and Outlook
Despite the optimism, there are clear risks. Aside from valuation and user-growth concerns already discussed, regulators are paying attention. The U.S. House Oversight Committee recently summoned CEO Steve Huffman over content on Reddit [85], reflecting broader scrutiny of social media. Media reports of outages (like the July 16, 2025 outage impacting ~139K accounts [86]) have raised questions about the platform’s stability and infrastructure.
Another unknown is how Reddit will spend its newfound cash flow. With profitability established, investors will watch for continued investment in product – for example, Reddit’s new “Reddit Answers” AI search or video strategy. So far, management seems focused on ads and licensing. The Bloomberg piece from Sept 2025 reported Reddit seeking to expand its $60M Google AI deal for better integration [87], indicating ad revenue is the priority.
Current consensus forecasts (from sources like TradingNews and tipranks) show upward momentum: average analyst price targets are creeping into the low-mid $200s, with several high-profile bulls at $280–$320 [88] [89]. Technicals-wise, a re-test of recent highs could occur if sentiment holds. The next major catalyst will be Reddit’s Q3 earnings call on Oct 30 (scheduled release early evening ET) – this will reveal if the AI ad strength and user growth trends continued.
In the short term, as of 20 Oct 2025, Reddit trades around $190–195, but swings up or down by 5–10% on any news are plausible (its one-week range was over ±10% recently [90]). Momentum players will be watching moves in related “AI economy” and social media stocks. As of market close Oct 17, analysts figure RDDT was ~-4% that day on below-average volume [91] [92]. If strong Q3 guidance and continued ad growth are confirmed, many experts (and retail traders on platforms like StockTwits) expect a renewed rally.
Forecast: Most models point to sustained double-digit gains: Reddit expects to hit ~$2.07B in revenue for 2025 (+64% YoY) and see EPS grow ~25–30% per year [93]. Bernstein and others have speculated, conditions holding, it could reach $250–$300 by late 2026. Citations aside, for now the market narrative is: Reddit is a high-flying tech stock in AI’s spotlight.
Bottom line: Reddit’s soaring trajectory continues to grab headlines and analysts alike. As investor and meme community expectations swell, the key question is whether Reddit can justify its sky-high valuation with execution on monetization and user engagement. For the general public watching from home, Reddit’s stock story is a stark example of the explosive potential — and risks — tied to the AI-fueled tech boom [94] [95].
Sources: Recent earnings reports and guidance [96] [97]; Reuters coverage of results and forecasts [98] [99]; TS2.tech analysis of Reddit’s performance [100] [101]; Investing.com and SimplyWallSt commentary [102] [103]; Yahoo/financial data for stock price [104]; analyst commentary from RBC, Piper Sandler, etc. [105] [106]. All figures and quotes are sourced accordingly.
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