- Current Price (Oct 22, 2025): ~$94.0 (TGT) [1] [2], down roughly 35% on the year [3]. 52-week range: ~$85–158, near its lowest level in years.
- Recent Earnings: Q2 2025 sales $25.2B (-0.9% YoY), GAAP EPS $2.05 (vs $2.57 in Q2 2024) [4] [5]. Company reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance (~flat revenue, GAAP EPS $8.00–10.00) [6].
- Leadership Change: Longtime CEO Brian Cornell will step down Feb. 1, 2026 [7]. COO Michael Fiddelke has been named his successor [8] [9].
- Analyst Consensus: “Hold” – 38 analysts, average 12‑month target ~$109 (≈+15% upside) [10]. Targets range widely (≈$80–160) [11] [12]. Morgan Stanley is optimistic ($160 PT) [13], while others like Bernstein and RBC are more cautious [14].
- Dividend: ~4.8% yield (a recent decade-high) [15] [16], making TGT attractive for income investors despite weak fundamentals.
- Industry Context: Peers are outperforming. Walmart (WMT) is up ~18% YTD [17], Costco (COST) up ~3% [18]. Analysts note Walmart’s growing margins and market share vs. Target’s struggles [19].
Market Snapshot: Price and Performance
As of mid‑October 2025, Target’s stock remains under heavy pressure. At the close on Oct. 22, 2025, TGT was about $94 [20], with the stock hovering just above its 52-week low (≈$85). TradingView reports TGT at $94.25 USD on Oct. 23, up ~0.2% on the day [21], but still far below last year’s highs. This leaves TGT down roughly 35% for 2025 [22]. By comparison, Walmart’s stock has climbed about +18% year‑to‑date [23] and Costco’s about +3% [24], underscoring Target’s relative weakness. Target’s forward P/E is near 12–13x, well below historical norms and peers [25] [26]. The high dividend yield (~4.8%) reflects this depressed price [27] [28]. Market sentiment is cautious: as one ts2.tech roundup notes, TGT is “near multi-year lows (~$94)” [29].
Recent News & Market Drivers
- Earnings & Guidance: On Aug. 20, 2025 Target reported Q2 2025 results (for quarter ended Aug. 2). Net sales were $25.2 billion (–0.9% YOY) [30], a modest improvement from Q1, with only 1.9% comparable sales decline. GAAP EPS was $2.05 (down from $2.57 in Q2 2024) [31]. Management highlighted stronger in-store traffic and digital growth (same-day delivery, etc.) [32] [33], but still faces “tariff-related and other cost pressures” on margins [34]. Target reiterated full-year guidance of low-single-digit sales declines and roughly $8.00–10.00 EPS [35], implying another challenging holiday season.
- Leadership Shakeup: Coinciding with the earnings release, Target announced CEO Brian Cornell will retire Feb. 1, 2026 [36]. COO Michael Fiddelke (20-year veteran) was unanimously chosen as the next CEO [37] [38]. Cornell, credited with growing Target into a ~$100B company, will remain as board chair [39] [40]. The abrupt executive change underscores investor anxiety: Neil Saunders of GlobalData remarked that an internal succession “does not necessarily remedy the problems of entrenched groupthink… Target, which used to be very attuned to consumer demand, has lost its grip on delivering for the American shopper” [41].
- Consumer Climate: Retailers cite consumers cutting back amid inflation. In Reuters interviews, EY executive Blake Harden warned that looming 100% tariffs on Chinese goods (set to begin Nov 1, 2025) could “dampen consumer sentiment” during the critical holiday season [42] [43]. Target executives have themselves acknowledged shoppers’ tighter budgets – CEO Cornell noted on the Q3 2024 call that “consumers tell us their budgets are being stretched” and are “becoming resourceful, focusing on deals” [44]. Such cautious spending (especially on non-essentials) has been reflected in tepid comps growth: only +0.3% in Q3 2024 [45] as compared to +2.0% in Q2.
- Partnerships and Promotions: Target continues aggressive marketing to drive traffic. In early October, its annual Circle Week sale (Oct 5–11, 2025) offered deep discounts (40–50% off on each day) on discretionary categories like apparel, toys and electronics [46]. This event – timed ahead of Amazon and Walmart fall deals – is designed to boost holiday-season foot traffic. Such strategic promotions (and in-store signage improvements) are crucial as Target tries to recoup market share.
- Xbox Stock Rumors: A recent TechStock² report highlighted viral Reddit posts claiming major retailers (including Target) are removing Xbox consoles/games from shelves [47] [48]. Unverified “employee” sources alleged Target will drop Xbox inventory following Microsoft’s price hikes [49] [50]. Target and Walmart declined to comment. Whether true or not, the rumor adds to concerns about Target’s electronics category. (Notably, Costco already pulled Xbox after Microsoft raised prices, according to reports.) [51] [52]
Analyst Commentary & Expert Views
Wall Street opinions on Target are mixed but generally cautious. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating with a $160 price target [53], arguing TGT is “undervalued” at ~10.5x forward earnings vs. peers at ~36x [54]. MS analysts see a potential pick‑up if macro pressures ease. In contrast, Guggenheim (May 2025) cut its 12-month target from $155 to $115 but kept a Buy call [55]. Guggenheim noted Target’s shrinking comps and broader 2025 guidance range ($7–9 EPS) but still forecasts 15–20% upside from current prices [56].
Others are bearish: Bernstein holds an Underperform (PT ~$80) [57], citing weak in-store traffic and e‑commerce margin pressure. RBC Capital reduced its target to ~$103 (Outperform) on disappointing Q1 results [58]. JPMorgan is more neutral, nudging its target up to $109 (Neutral), noting Target’s wider guidance range is an attempt to manage uncertainty [59]. CFRA recently downgraded TGT from Buy to Hold, warning that tariffs and a tough economy pose headwinds [60]. Aptus Capital’s David Wagner echoed that Walmart’s growing margin/mktshare leaves Target “another point of frustration” [61].
Overall, analysts expect minimal growth near-term: comparable sales down low-single-digits this year and next, as Target works to execute new strategies. The average 12-month price target across 38 analysts is about $109 (≈+15% upside) [62]. Only a few see big gains (Morgan Stanley’s 72% upside to $160); most foresee modest returns, effectively pricing in Target’s challenges.
Competitor Landscape: Walmart & Costco
Target’s stock slippage stands in stark contrast to its larger rivals. Walmart (WMT) has been the market leader, with ~4,600 U.S. stores and robust growth in high-margin businesses (Walmart+, advertising) [63] [64]. WMT trades around $106 (Oct 23 close) and is roughly 18% higher YTD [65]. Analysts note Walmart’s “business that is growing margins and market share, something Target has not been able to exemplify” [66]. Costco (COST) continues to outperform economically squeezed Americans: Q4 FY2025 results (Sep 2025) beat estimates with 6.4% comps lift [67]. COST stock is up only a few percent for the year [68], but the membership retailer remains a defensive bellwether. By contrast, Target’s lower-cost competitors like Walmart and Costco have absorbed tariff shocks better – for example, Costco’s strategy of local sourcing and limited categories has helped it beat Q4 revenue and profit estimates [69]. In short, investors see TGT as losing share to its bigger rivals in a tightening consumer market.
Outlook: Forecast and Valuation
Looking ahead, the consensus is for sluggish near-term growth but a potential rebound if Target executes its turnaround plans. Management’s maintained guidance (low-single-digit sales decline in 2025 [70]) suggests the company expects a relatively flat sales year. Analysts largely model continued weakness in basics (home, apparel) offset by strength in essentials and digital initiatives (same-day delivery, loyalty programs). Importantly, Target’s valuation is historically low: forward P/E ~12–13x and a dividend yield near 5% [71] [72]. Many value investors note that TGT’s cheap multiple and solid cash flow could limit further downside.
However, risks are significant. The upcoming holiday season will test whether promotions (like Circle Week) can drive enough traffic. Potential trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports could increase costs on furniture, appliances and other big-ticket items [73]. Target’s own comments highlight that any tariff-induced price hikes may temper demand in Q4 and beyond. On the positive side, if tariff talks ease in late 2025, expense pressures could abate (as Morgan Stanley noted) [74].
In summary, most forecasters see only modest upside in the near term. MarketBeat cites an average TGT target of ~$109 [75]. Some analysts (e.g. Guggenheim) do see 10–20% total return over a year [76], largely from dividends and valuation recovery. Others warn that until Target’s sales base stabilizes, the stock may languish. Ultimately, the outlook hinges on whether the new CEO and strategy can reignite growth. Given current headwinds, Target’s turnaround will likely be gradual – making near-term forecasts cautious but keeping the high-dividend, low-valuation stock on value investors’ radar.
Sources: Official company filings and news releases [77] [78]; Reuters, People.com, Retail Dive, Morgan Stanley and Guggenheim analyses [79] [80] [81] [82] [83]; techstock² summaries [84] [85]; Nasdaq/Financial websites [86] [87] [88]; analyst commentary [89] [90]. All data and quotes are up-to-date as of Oct. 23, 2025.
References
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