- Stock Rally & Trump’s Deals: Boeing’s stock (NYSE: BA) has climbed roughly 26% in 2025 Tipranks, boosted in part by President Donald Trump’s recent Asia trip where Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam agreed to acquire Boeing jets under new trade deals Flightglobal. (Vietnam Airlines alone will buy 50 Boeing aircraft, a deal worth ~$8 billion Flightglobal.)
- Q3 Earnings Test Looms: Boeing reports Q3 2025 earnings today (Oct 29), with analysts expecting around $22 billion in revenue (20%+ year-over-year growth) and a narrower loss than last year Tipranks. However, J.P. Morgan warns Boeing may take a ~$4 billion charge this quarter tied to delays in its 777X jet program Tipranks – a potential “surprise” that has investors cautious.
- Production & Deliveries Up: Boeing’s jet deliveries are accelerating – it handed over 55 airplanes in September 2025, a sharp jump from 33 in the same month last year ts2.tech. U.S. regulators have now approved increasing 737 MAX production from 38 to 42 jets per month ts2.tech, marking a key milestone after a two-year cap and paving the way for higher output.
- Mega-Orders Build Backlog: In addition to surging post-pandemic airline demand, Boeing’s backlog (~5,900 jets valued around $619 billion) is getting new boosts. Trump’s trade agreements in Asia spurred commitments for up to 160 Boeing aircraft (including a 50-jet order by Vietnam Airlines) Flightglobal, and U.S. officials have even touted a possible 500-plane sale to China in the works ts2.tech – a blockbuster deal that would reopen Boeing’s critical Chinese market.
- Wall Street Bullish (With Caveats): Most experts remain optimistic on Boeing’s recovery. The stock carries a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average 12-month price target around $259 (implying ~15% upside) Tipranks. J.P. Morgan’s top aerospace analyst Seth Seifman just reiterated an Overweight (Buy) rating ahead of earnings Tipranks Tipranks, anticipating substantially higher cash flows in coming years as deliveries rise. Still, some caution that Boeing must execute flawlessly – “the biggest risk for Boeing… is do they end up becoming a great company again or just a mediocre company?” one veteran analyst warns ts2.tech.
Trump’s Asia Tour Boosts Boeing Sales
Boeing is riding a wave of major order wins from Asia as it heads into its Q3 earnings announcement. During a late-October trip through Asia, President Trump helped secure several big-ticket aircraft deals as part of new trade agreements. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam committed to buying U.S.-made planes (primarily Boeing), and Cambodia agreed to partner with Boeing to develop its aviation sector Flightglobal. According to the White House, Vietnam’s flag carrier Vietnam Airlines will purchase 50 Boeing jets (valued at about $8 billion) under a new trade framework Flightglobal. Likewise, Thailand agreed to procure 80 Boeing aircraft (a roughly $18.8 billion deal) in its pact, while Malaysia’s agreement covers 30 Boeing jets plus options for 30 more Flightglobal Flightglobal. These trade-driven orders “throw more momentum behind Boeing” and highlight the Trump administration’s push to use aerospace deals as “economic diplomacy,” notes industry journal FlightGlobal Flightglobal Flightglobal.
The market has cheered these developments. Boeing’s stock rose earlier this week as news of Trump’s Asia deals spread, adding to a broader 2025 rally. Year-to-date, BA shares are up over 20% and have far outperformed the S&P 500 ts2.tech Tipranks. (By contrast, since early September Boeing’s stock had actually slipped ~6% while the S&P 500 climbed, reflecting investor jitters into earnings Tipranks – a gap this Asia news helped narrow.) Analysts have dubbed Trump “the ‘best Boeing salesman’ at work in Asia” after his visit resulted in new agreements to buy Boeing jets ahead of the earnings report Moomoo.
Critically, the Asia trip also appears to have eased U.S.–China trade tensions that affect Boeing. Earlier in the month, Trump had threatened to ban Boeing part exports to China (retaliating for Beijing’s limits on rare-earth mineral exports), sparking concern about Boeing’s access to the Chinese market ts2.tech. But high-level talks calmed the dispute, and Trump dialed back the threat ts2.tech. Now attention has shifted to a potential breakthrough deal: U.S. officials recently touted a possible sale of 500 Boeing airplanes to China, reportedly in “final stages” of discussion ts2.tech. Such an order – which would be Boeing’s largest-ever from China – would be a game-changer for the company’s long-term outlook. While not yet finalized, even the prospect of reopening China’s market (after a years-long freeze in Chinese orders) has been a bullish talking point for Boeing going into year-end ts2.tech.
Earnings in Focus: Big Jump in Revenue, but 777X Charge Looms
All of this sets the stage for Boeing’s third-quarter earnings report, due today. Wall Street expects significant improvement in Boeing’s results as the company’s recovery gains traction. Consensus estimates call for Q3 revenue of around $22 billion, which would mark 20–24% growth from a year ago Tipranks Zacks. That top-line gain is largely driven by Boeing’s rising output: the company is finally delivering jets at a healthier pace, which translates into revenue and cash inflow (since airlines pay on delivery). In fact, Boeing delivered 136 commercial planes in Q3 (July–Sept) by some counts ts2.tech ts2.tech, a big step up from pandemic-era lows. September alone saw 55 deliveries, Boeing’s best September since 2018 ts2.tech. Thanks to that momentum, Q3 sales are expected to jump even as Boeing likely remains in the red on the bottom line.
Analysts forecast another quarterly loss for Boeing – but a much smaller one. In Q3 2024, Boeing lost over $10 per share; this quarter the consensus is around a $5.16 loss per share Tipranks Yahoo. Boeing has a streak of earnings misses (it fell short of EPS estimates in 4 of the past 9 quarters Tipranks), so investors will be watching whether the company can hit its targets this time. More importantly, Boeing’s free cash flow is a focal point: after years of burning cash, the company turned cash-flow positive earlier in 2025, and executives have projected positive free cash flow by Q4 2025 and a return to profitability in 2026 ts2.tech ts2.tech. Achieving those goals will require smooth execution in Q4 and no major new setbacks.
One big wild card for Q3 is a potential accounting charge on Boeing’s troubled 777X widebody program. Development of the 777X (Boeing’s next-gen flagship jet) has faced repeated delays, and now management has hinted at a significant charge related to the program’s latest delay Tipranks. J.P. Morgan’s analyst Seth Seifman believes Boeing might take a “multi-billion-dollar” write-down in the Q3 results for the 777X Tipranks. The charge would reflect the extra costs and penalties of pushing the jet’s entry into service further out. How big? Seifman is “finger in the wind” estimating about a $4 billion hit Tipranks. The exact size is uncertain, but Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg admitted even a minor schedule delay on this high-stakes jet can have “a pretty big financial impact” Tipranks. The 777X was supposed to debut in 2025, but testing and certification are taking longer than anticipated Tipranks. If Boeing confirms a large special charge today, it could technically worsen the quarterly loss – yet Seifman notes such an accounting hit “will have little impact on [2025] cash flow” Tipranks. The real concern is that delaying 777X deliveries also delays cash receipts from customers. In fact, J.P. Morgan has cut its Boeing cash flow forecasts for 2026–27 by about $500 million each, precisely because the 777X delay means fewer deliveries (and less cash) in those years Tipranks. Boeing might address these timing issues on its earnings call, though Seifman suspects management won’t fully update guidance until the Q4 results in January Tipranks.
Beyond the 777X, Boeing’s executives will likely strike a cautiously optimistic tone. CEO Ortberg has emphasized that boosting production is the key to Boeing’s comeback – “increasing production is critical in getting Boeing back to being cash positive,” he said recently ts2.tech. Essentially, Boeing’s strategy is that output = cash: “financial performance will follow the production performance,” Ortberg noted ts2.tech. The Q3 report should shed light on how well Boeing is controlling costs as it ramps up output. Investors will also listen for commentary on supply chain and labor issues. Boeing has grappled with parts shortages and factory disruptions, but conditions are gradually improving. Still, a few challenges dragged into Q3: for instance, a 75-day strike by ~3,200 Boeing defense workers in St. Louis halted F-15 fighter jet deliveries this quarter ts2.tech. That labor strike (which is in contract talks with a mediator) mainly impacts Boeing’s defense segment, not its commercial airplane output ts2.tech. Yet it “complicates matters for Boeing” at an already busy time Swingtradebot, and serves as a reminder that execution risks remain on multiple fronts.
Production Ramps Up as Boeing Aims for a Turnaround
Encouragingly for Boeing, the operational trends are moving in the right direction. Aircraft deliveries have accelerated markedly in 2025, which directly fuels revenue and cash flow. Through the first nine months of 2025, Boeing delivered 440 commercial jets, up from 341 in the same period last year ts2.tech. The company is steadily closing the gap with archrival Airbus – Airbus delivered 507 planes in the first nine months, but Boeing has been narrowing that deficit as its factories recover ts2.tech. Notably, Boeing’s September delivery total (55 jets) included 40 of its 737 MAX workhorse models, one of which was the 2,000th 737 MAX ever delivered ts2.tech. It also delivered several wide-bodies (777 freighters, 767s, 787 Dreamliners) and even a military P-8 patrol aircraft in that mix ts2.tech. This uptick in output bodes well – as Boeing’s CFO has pointed out, the company gets paid primarily upon delivery, so “the market wants its jets” and Boeing’s financial fortunes will improve as those jets get out the door ts2.tech ts2.tech.
To sustain this momentum, Boeing has been working closely with regulators and suppliers to lift production constraints. A major breakthrough came on October 17, when the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) officially cleared Boeing to increase 737 MAX production from 38 to 42 per month ts2.tech. This decision ended a two-year cap on 737 output that the FAA had imposed after a series of quality lapses ts2.tech. (Back in early 2024, for example, a newly delivered 737 MAX was found missing some critical bolts – a safety incident that prompted regulators to slow Boeing’s production until processes improved ts2.tech.) After what the FAA called “extensive reviews” of Boeing’s manufacturing quality, the agency is now confident Boeing can safely speed up the line ts2.tech. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford even phoned CEO Ortberg personally to give the green light for 42 jets/month starting immediately ts2.tech. Boeing says it will implement the rate hike “with safety and quality at the forefront” ts2.tech – a nod to the painful lessons of the 737 MAX crisis. The company had already hit the 38/month pace and was “pretty confident” it could reach 42 by year-end ts2.tech; now that FAA approval is in hand, Boeing plans to push beyond 42 in increments of five planes at a time ts2.tech going forward.
Higher 737 MAX output, along with recovering production of the 787 Dreamliner (now at 7 per month, aiming for 10 by 2026 Tipranks), should translate into higher deliveries and revenue in coming quarters. Boeing’s internal goal is to restore the kind of volume that will cover its fixed costs and eventually allow it to be profitable again. The company hasn’t reported an annual profit since 2018, due to the MAX grounding, COVID travel slump, and factory quality problems that followed. But with demand for jets strong and its huge order backlog providing years of built-in business, Boeing expects a return to profitability in 2026 ts2.tech. Executives have even floated that 2026 could be Boeing’s first full-year profit in nearly a decade ts2.tech – a stark turnaround from the multibillion-dollar losses of recent years. To get there, Boeing must also chip away at its debt load, which ballooned from emergency borrowing. The company still carries about $53 billion in debt against only ~$23 billion in cash ts2.tech. Reducing that leverage will require strong cash flows, so Boeing’s ability to hit its cash and delivery targets over the next 12–18 months is critical. On this front, CEO Ortberg remains prudent: he has said Boeing will ramp production carefully – even “a month at a time” if needed – because losing stability or quality would be worse than missing a short-term output goal ts2.tech. In other words, the company knows it must walk a fine line: grow fast enough to satisfy demand and heal financially, but not so fast that it stumbles again.
Wall Street Outlook: Optimism Tempered by Execution Risks
Despite the challenges, Wall Street is largely bullish on Boeing’s trajectory. The consensus among analysts is that Boeing’s worst days are behind it, and that each quarter will show incremental improvement provided there are no new crises. According to TipRanks data, 12 out of 13 recent analyst ratings on Boeing are Buys, with just one Hold – constituting a “Strong Buy” consensus Tipranks. The average price target of about $259 implies roughly 16% upside from Boeing’s current share price Tipranks. Many analysts raised their targets after seeing Boeing’s delivery surge and order wins in Q3. For instance, Bernstein’s Douglas Harned (a long-time Boeing bull) recently reaffirmed his Outperform rating and a $287 price target Tipranks, citing the FAA’s production go-ahead and noting that Boeing’s stock “typically strengthens when output rises.” Harned pointed out that both the 737 MAX and 787 programs are now “progressing as planned” after past hiccups, which bolsters confidence Tipranks. Similarly, Bank of America’s Ron Epstein has a Buy rating (around $270 target) and applauds Boeing’s improving fundamentals – but he also issues a reality check. Epstein warns that Boeing must prove it can fully regain its former dominance: “the biggest risk for Boeing… is do they end up becoming a great company again or just a mediocre company?” he said bluntly ts2.tech. This underscores that while investors are optimistic, they haven’t forgotten Boeing’s costly missteps. The company’s credibility will be earned back only by hitting its commitments going forward.
Even the most upbeat analysts acknowledge some risks and unknowns. Aside from the 777X uncertainty, Boeing is working through certification of its smaller 737 MAX 7 and 10 variants (still awaiting FAA approval ts2.tech), integrating key suppliers (it just acquired a major stake in supplier Spirit AeroSystems to fix supply bottlenecks ts2.tech), and navigating geopolitical cross-currents. The U.S.–China relationship looms large: Chinese airlines took delivery of 8 Boeing jets in September ts2.tech as relations thawed, but any reversal in trade talks could slam that door shut again. On the flip side, a confirmed China order of hundreds of planes would significantly de-risk Boeing’s recovery. Likewise, defense contracts are a growing part of Boeing’s story – record U.S. defense budgets (the 2025 U.S. defense budget is about $849 billion ts2.tech) are creating opportunities for Boeing’s military division. Boeing is even vying for next-generation fighter jet programs ts2.tech that could yield lucrative deals if it wins. These areas add upside, but Boeing will need to execute on them while still fixing its core commercial business.
Overall, the sentiment around Boeing has improved dramatically in 2025. The company’s stock has nearly doubled off its lows (it hit a 52-week low around $129 and climbed as high as $242 this year) ts2.tech. Investors who bought in during the dark days of 2020–2022 are finally seeing payoff, with Boeing outpacing the broader market this year ts2.tech. Yet Boeing’s management is the first to admit they have “a mountain of work” still ahead ts2.tech. The coming Q3 earnings release will be a crucial report card – not just for the numbers, but for what Boeing says about the road to 2026. As one market analyst put it, the market’s patience is conditional: “the market wants its jets” ts2.tech – meaning airlines are clamoring for new planes – and now Boeing must deliver (literally and figuratively). If the company can keep ramping up production, control its costs, and avoid new quality issues, most experts agree Boeing’s turnaround will stay on course ts2.tech. In that scenario, there could be considerable further upside in the stock. But any stumble – be it a major delay, a fresh safety lapse, or economic shock – and Boeing could quickly give back its gains ts2.tech. In short, Boeing’s “big test” has arrived Tipranks: Q3 results and guidance will either validate the optimism or remind everyone that aerospace comebacks, much like flight tests, rarely go 100% according to plan.
Sources: Recent news and analysis from Barron’s, Yahoo Finance, TipRanks, Reuters and TechStock² (ts2.tech) have been used in this report Moomoo Tipranks ts2.tech Tipranks, among others, to provide up-to-date information on Boeing’s earnings outlook, industry developments, and expert commentary. All stock price and financial data are as of October 29, 2025.
