Today: 1 November 2025
Subscribe
Starbucks (SBUX) Brewing Gains? CEO’s Shake-Up & $5B China Deal Fuel Stock Rally
29 October 2025
 ·  ·  ·  ·  · 
2 mins read

Starbucks Rebound? Q4 Sales Jump for First Time in 2 Years, Sending Stock Soaring

by
  • Surprise Sales Growth: In Q4 (fiscal year ended Sept 28), Starbucks reported global same-store sales up 1%, its first increase in seven quarters [1]. International markets drove the gain (Intl. comps +3%), offsetting flat U.S. comps [2]. Net revenues rose 5% to $9.6 billion (vs. $9.3B expected) [3].
  • Profit Impacted by Restructuring: Aggressive cost cuts weighed on profits. Starbucks took a $1 billion restructuring charge, closing 627 stores (90% in the U.S.) and laying off ~900 support staff [4]. As a result, GAAP EPS plunged 85% to $0.12 [5]. On an adjusted basis, it earned $0.52 per share (vs. $0.56 expected) [6].
  • CEO: Turnaround Progress: CEO Brian Niccol – one year into the job – said the results show “progress in its multi-year turnaround” [7]. He’s revamped store operations (new staffing standards and order-sequencing software to cut wait times) [8]. CFO Cathy Smith warned that “turnarounds are difficult to forecast … recoveries are not linear,” cautioning that improvement will be gradual [9].
  • “Back to Starbucks” Strategy: Under Niccol’s $1 billion plan, Starbucks is “trimming fat” and reinvesting in customers [10] [11]. It is closing underperforming stores (about 1% of its US/CAN estate) and cutting ~900 corporate jobs [12] [13]. At the same time, Starbucks is adding staff during peak periods – hiring roughly 1,500–2,000 more baristas by next spring and ~3,000 by year-end [14] – to speed service and improve the in-store experience.
  • Menu & Tech Innovations: Niccol has also pushed new products and tech. He teased premium protein-packed drinks and upscale pastries for next year [15], and Starbucks is piloting a Microsoft-powered “Green Dot” AI assistant on iPads to help baristas with orders and equipment questions [16]. Over 1,000 stores will get warmer new interiors and a simpler menu (30% fewer items) [17]. (Starbucks even inked a deal as the 2028 LA Olympics’ official coffee sponsor [18].)
  • Stock Jump & Forecast: Investors cheered the sales rebound. Starbucks shares rose ~2% in after-hours trading on the news [19]. The stock trades in the mid-$80s (about 10% below last year) [20], and Wall Street is cautiously optimistic. Roughly two-thirds of analysts rate SBUX a “Buy,” with consensus targets around $100–104 [21] – implying 20–25% upside from current levels. TipRanks’ own model sees “Outperform” with a ~$105 target [22], as experts reckon Starbucks earnings should rebound (~23% growth in FY2026) once Niccol’s changes take hold.

Starbucks’ surprisingly strong Q4 sales and its renewed focus on customers suggest its “Back to Starbucks” strategy is gaining traction [23] [24]. Still, higher costs (coffee-bean prices, tariffs on imports) cut into margins [25]. The company suspended guidance, with CFO Smith saying new forecasts will come at an investor event in January [26]. In the meantime, analysts note that if Starbucks can sustain this momentum – by winning back customers and controlling costs – the stock may have further room to run. As one UBS analyst put it, investors are watching for an inflection in sales trends next year [27].

Sources: Starbucks Q4 financial report [28] [29]; Associated Press/ABC News (via TheHill) [30] [31] [32]; Reuters analysis [33] [34]; TechStock²/ts2.tech strategy overview [35] [36]; stock analyst consensus (TipRanks) [37]; Nasdaq/Starbucks investor site [38].

Jim Cramer recaps Starbucks' Q3 numbers
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. abcnews.go.com, 2. abcnews.go.com, 3. abcnews.go.com, 4. abcnews.go.com, 5. abcnews.go.com, 6. abcnews.go.com, 7. abcnews.go.com, 8. abcnews.go.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. abcnews.go.com, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. abcnews.go.com, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. ts2.tech, 23. abcnews.go.com, 24. ts2.tech, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. ts2.tech, 28. investor.starbucks.com, 29. abcnews.go.com, 30. abcnews.go.com, 31. abcnews.go.com, 32. abcnews.go.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. ts2.tech, 36. ts2.tech, 37. ts2.tech, 38. investor.starbucks.com

Tags:

Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

  1. Binance Coin (BNB) Skyrockets to New Highs—$2,000 Next? Experts Weigh In
  2. Cardano (ADA) on the Brink: Could ADA Hit $1 in November 2025?
  3. Solana (SOL) on Fire: Western Union Stuns Crypto World as ETFs Spark Explosive Rally
  4. Ethereum’s ETH Price is on FIRE: Surging to $3,800+ on Bullish Signals and Whales’ Frenzy

Stock Market Today

  • US stock market November 2025 forecast: Will Wall Street's strongest month deliver another surprise rally? 3 big shifts to note
    November 1, 2025, 7:58 AM EDT. October closed with broad gains as tech led a rally, with Amazon's strong Q3 results and AWS growth accelerating. As November begins, a cautiously bullish tone prevails: history shows the S&P 500 tends to rise in November, aided by AI momentum, easing trade tensions, and ongoing rate cuts. Analysts warn of three risks: potential credit shocks, a softening job market, and rising concerns about housing/rent declines that could influence inflation and Fed policy. The desk highlights Amazon's strength as a barometer for consumer tech and cloud demand, while AI-linked names like Palantir, Oracle, and AMD have shared in the gains. If rates stay steady and rents cool, the path for a holiday rally could stay intact-assuming no fresh shocks derail sentiment.
  • Stocks Finish Higher on Earnings Optimism as Mega-Caps Jump
    November 1, 2025, 6:56 AM EDT. U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday after solid earnings, with the S&P 500 up 0.26%, the Dow +0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 +0.48%. December futures added small gains as traders priced in earnings optimism. Amazon surged more than 9% on blowout results; Western Digital rose over 8% on strong Q1 revenue. By Friday, about 60% of S&P 500 members had reported Q3 results, with over 80% beating estimates, underscoring bullish earnings momentum. Fed commentary remained mixed, with officials signaling caution on rate cuts; markets priced roughly a 64% chance of a 25 bp cut in December and about 82 bps of cuts by end-2026. Trade progress with China supported risk appetite and helped extend the rally.
  • United Rentals (URI) Valuation After Pullback: Is It Undervalued vs. Analyst Targets
    November 1, 2025, 6:40 AM EDT. United Rentals (URI) has pulled back after a strong run, prompting a fresh look at valuation. The stock is up 26.3% year-to-date and 10.8% over the last year, suggesting momentum remains for long-term holders even as sentiment cools from the peak. With shares trading below analyst targets-last close around $871.18 versus a widely cited fair value near $1,000.68-the stock appears undervalued on a headline basis. A key driver is the Specialty segment, where cold-starts grew 22% year over year and ~15% pro forma, signaling potential gains in revenue and margins as this mix expands. However, risks include project delays and higher equipment costs that could temper future growth. Investors should weigh whether the pullback creates a buying opportunity or already reflects the outlook.
  • Restaurant Brands International Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings: Is QSR Undervalued?
    November 1, 2025, 6:08 AM EDT. Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) posted strong Q3 earnings with rising sales, revenue, and net income, highlighting ongoing operational momentum. The company reaffirmed its quarterly dividend, underpinning stable returns. The stock has slipped about 3% in the last three months, but investors have seen a 45% five-year total return. With shares trading around a 20% discount to analyst targets, the case for undervalued status strengthens as some analysts peg a fair value near the $77.69 narrative. Drivers include rapid international expansion (China, India, Turkey, Japan, Brazil) and menu innovation at Tim Hortons, Burger King, and international markets. Yet risks such as rising commodity costs and fierce competition linger. Investors should watch margin momentum and how the narrative translates into earnings.
  • DoorDash Valuation Deep Dive: 49% YTD Rally, Retail Partnerships, and a DCF-Based Undervaluation Signal
    November 1, 2025, 5:44 AM EDT. DoorDash has surged 49.1% year-to-date and gained 393.3% over three years, even as shares pull back slightly this month. Recent retail partnerships and diversification into new delivery categories have fueled investor optimism, but a 2/6 valuation score suggests the market may have priced in much of the upside. A closer look at two common methods shows a nuanced picture. The DCF model pegs DoorDash's intrinsic value at $326.03 per share, implying the stock trades about a 22% discount to fair value. By contrast, the article's PE-based view is less clear-cut, highlighting how earnings multiples can diverge from long-term cash-flow strength. Bottom line: DoorDash could be undervalued if growth stays on track, but risks remain from competition and execution.
Go toTop