Trump Touts “Tremendous” Soybean Deal with China – Farmers Cautious as Details Remain Vague

Trump-Xi summit yields farm-trade headlines: After Thursday’s meeting in Busan, President Trump announced China will buy “tremendous” amounts of U.S. soybeans and other farm products ^[1]. China’s Commerce Ministry likewise pledged to “expand agricultural trade” with the U.S. ^[2] ^[3], though it gave no specific purchase commitments.
Soybean prices mixed: U.S. soybean futures jumped in anticipation but fell sharply on uncertainty. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans briefly hit a 15-month high this week, then dropped as much as 2.2% after the talks ^[4] ^[5]. By Friday, nearby soybeans were around $10.80 per bushel ^[6] ^[7], well below last year’s peaks.
Farmers under pressure: China’s near-total boycott of U.S. soy this year has cost Midwest farmers “billions of dollars” in lost sales ^[8]. Illinois declared an “agricultural trade crisis,” warning soybean growers lost $100–$200 per acre in 2025 ^[9]. Many farmers say the market can’t truly recover without firm commitments.
Analysts skeptical: Experts note China already bought record South American soybeans this season. TS2.Tech observes China is “turning almost entirely to Brazil” for beans ^[10], pushing U.S. prices to multi-year lows ^[11] ^[12]. They warn that without a rollback of U.S. tariffs on agriculture (yet unaddressed) Chinese purchases may remain limited ^[13] ^[14].
Downward pressure looms: Brazil is harvesting a record ~178 million ton soybean crop ^[15] ^[16]. U.S. and world soybean stocks are at high levels, and analysts predict lower prices ahead unless China quickly resumes large U.S. imports ^[17] ^[18]. Fed rate cuts this week (25 bps) eased borrowing costs for farmers ^[19], but over-supply and tariff uncertainty still cloud the outlook.

Trump-Xi Summit Delivers Promises (So Far)

On Oct. 30, 2025 the highly-anticipated Trump-Xi face-to-face ended with a flurry of farm-trade promises. President Trump told reporters that President Xi “authorized China to begin the purchase of massive amounts of Soybeans, Sorghum, and other farm products.” Trump said China would start buying “tremendous” volumes immediately ^[20] ^[21]. Likewise, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated the two sides agreed to “expand agricultural trade” ^[22]. Importantly, neither side released binding details. No tariff cuts or purchase quantities were spelled out, leaving investors and farmers wanting clarity. As one analyst put it, “the market was looking for commitments to buy 5 million-to-10 million tons” after the summit, and without that certainty “choppy markets” will persist ^[23].

Trump also framed the deal as part of broader tariff cuts. He announced U.S. tariffs on China would drop by 10 percentage points (from 57% to ~47% on many goods) in exchange for China resuming soybean imports ^[24]. In response, China agreed to delay some planned rare earth export curbs and to import more U.S. farm goods ^[25]. While hailed by the White House as a “mini-deal” on trade, the specifics on soy and other crops remain to be written.

Soybean Futures and Market Reaction

The announcement triggered immediate market swings. Chicago soybean futures first spiked to their highest levels in 15 months on hope of resumed Chinese buying ^[26], then slid sharply once details were absent. Chicago soy dropped as much as 2.2% intra-day right after Trump’s comments ^[27]. By morning on Oct. 30, November soybeans were trading around $10.80 per bushel ^[28]. This is down from mid-October rallies (above $11) but still up from early October lows near $10.05 ^[29] ^[30]. Cash soybeans in the U.S. Midwest were around $10.13½ (per bushel) as traders paused for clarity ^[31].

Commodity traders noted that implementation matters. As Beijing-based analyst Even Pay quipped, “The implementation details matter a lot – for example will China roll back tariffs on U.S. agriculture products… or only create a case-by-case exemption?” ^[32]. The uncertainty showed up in prices: soybeans “clawed back” much of the week’s gains after the summit ^[33]. Until clear purchase contracts appear, expectations and volatility remain high. As futures broker Joe Davis warned, markets may stay unsettled “until we see actual cargoes purchased.” ^[34]

Impact on U.S. Farmers – Relief or More Waiting?

The U.S. soybean sector has been severely hurt by China’s absence. Prior to the trade war, China imported roughly half of all U.S. soybeans ^[35]. In 2025, that nearly complete demand vanished. One Indiana farmer noted that nearly every soybean bushel harvested sits “in bins waiting and hoping for a resolution.” ^[36] Midwest growers face estimated losses of around $100 per acre this year ^[37]. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker even declared an “agricultural trade crisis,” citing “soybean production losses of $100 to $200 per acre” and ordering state support for farmers ^[38].

Farm groups and state leaders cautiously welcomed talk of renewed exports. The Iowa Farm Bureau president said he was “encouraged” by reports of Chinese buying commitments ^[39]. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who was at the summit, said China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, and 25 million tons annually for the next three years ^[40] – roughly the same volume that U.S. sold to China in 2021-22. Analyst Brian Grete of Commstock noted this “would be getting back to normal” in the longer term ^[41].

However, many farmers remain wary. The U.S. Soybean Association’s president Caleb Ragland lamented that “every time China turns to South America… our farm families here at home lose out.” ^[42] Minnesota farmers, for example, have been hit hard by tariffs and high input costs – they reportedly cheered Fed rate cuts this month which will help borrowing, but hope that trade news translates into real sales ^[43]. In sum, growers want concrete deals more than promises. As stock analyst Nick Carracher commented, “A trade deal with only small purchases won’t support futures or turn around grower sentiment.” ^[44]

Global Supply and Future Outlook

Underneath the headlines, global supply trends suggest ongoing pressure on U.S. soy. Brazil is on track for a record harvest, currently forecast around 177–178 million tonnes for 2025/26 ^[45] ^[46]. Chinese buyers have flooded these South American beans: in September alone China took an estimated 6.5 MMT from Brazil (over 90% of Brazil’s exports) ^[47]. With U.S. stocks already high and South America now back in market (Argentina recently halted its tax break on exports), U.S. soy futures are near multi-year lows ^[48] ^[49]. For example, Chicago November soy was around $10.03 in mid-October – the lowest in several years ^[50].

Analysts caution that without substantive tariff relief, any Chinese purchases may be short-lived. Bloomberg reports that Beijing has so far not said it will repeal the new 23% U.S. soybean tariff ^[51] ^[52]. As Even Pay notes, “we do not have a 100% clear answer” on tariffs being cut ^[53]. If the tariff remains, Chinese importers will likely keep favoring cheaper Brazilian beans. TS2.Tech’s farm market analysis agrees: “Global soybean production is hitting record levels… and China has diverted huge volumes to South America,” softening U.S. bean prices ^[54]. In their view, unless U.S.-China trade ties undergo a more permanent reset, the fundamentals favor lower grain and oilseed prices overall ^[55].

Market Outlook: In the coming weeks, traders will watch closely for concrete deals. If China indeed books large U.S. shipments this winter (for reserve stocks or crushers), prices could firm. But with 2025 harvests finished and little domestic demand growth, any price rally may be limited. Most forecasters expect U.S. soybean exports to pick up gradually, but international competition and tariffs will likely keep prices below early-2020 highs. Corn and wheat markets are facing similar headwinds from big global crops, suggesting that agriculture stocks and commodity indexes may stay volatile. As one market strategist put it, the Trump-Xi meeting result was “already in the price” – real rallies will depend on follow-through, not just promises ^[56].

Conclusion: The Trump-Xi meeting gave U.S. farmers a glimmer of hope – China’s words promise relief. But without concrete actions (tariff cuts, firm purchase contracts), those hopes may fade. Farmers from Iowa to Illinois remain watchful. In the end, experts agree that actual purchases, not rhetoric, will decide whether this summit brings a real turnaround in the soybean markets ^[57] ^[58].

Sources: Current news articles and market analyses from Reuters, FarmPolicyNews, FarmProgress, TS2.Tech and others provide detailed coverage of the trade talks and their agricultural impact ^[59] ^[60] ^[61] ^[62] ^[63]. These have been used to report the above facts and expert perspectives.

'Real emergency for American soybean farmers' as Trump negotiates with China: Economist

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