- New Trade Deal: The U.S. and China struck a trade truce on Oct. 30, with China agreeing to buy “tremendous” volumes of American farm goods. Beijing pledged 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by January and 25 million tons annually for the next three years [1] [2]. This marks a dramatic return after virtually zero Chinese purchases of the new U.S. soybean crop earlier this fall [3].
- China Resumes Buying: China wasted no time following through. Its state-run grain trader COFCO quietly bought three U.S. soybean cargoes (~180,000 tons) right before the Trump-Xi summit – the first U.S. soybeans China bought all year [4]. After the deal, China booked four more cargoes (~250,000 tons) for late 2025 and early 2026 shipment [5]. These seven shiploads are an early sign of China’s renewed demand under the agreement.
- Farmers and Lawmakers Cheer: U.S. soybean farmers – especially in big producers like Minnesota and Illinois – welcomed the deal after years of pain. “Fantastic… but I wish it had come sooner,” said Minnesota farmer Bob Worth, noting many had to pay for extra crop storage amid the trade standoff [6]. Farm groups hailed the agreement as a “meaningful step” to restore stable trade with China [7], after a trade war that cost U.S. growers billions in lost sales [8].
- Market Jolt: Chicago soybean prices jumped to 15-month highs (around $11 per bushel) on the news [9]. Futures initially spiked on deal hopes, dipped when details were scarce, then rallied after China’s purchases were confirmed. Wall Street also rallied: the Dow hit a record ~47,545 and S&P 500 ~6,875 on Oct. 27 as investors bet on a U.S.-China thaw [10]. Agribusiness stocks like ADM and Bunge stand to gain from renewed exports [11], and farmers expect higher crop prices next year thanks to China’s return [12].
- Cautious Outlook: Experts note this soybean pact largely returns trade to pre-trade-war norms rather than expanding them [13] [14]. China’s pledge (25 million tons/year) roughly matches its U.S. imports before 2018. Analysts warn implementation details – especially whether China’s steep 20–23% tariffs on U.S. soy are lifted – will determine if private Chinese buyers come back in force [15] [16]. With many deeper U.S.-China disputes unresolved, the one-year truce could be just a “tactical pause” [17], so optimism is tempered by caution.
Trade Truce Revives Soybean Trade
After years of fraught trade relations, Washington and Beijing reached a breakthrough at a summit in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year pause in their tariff war – a deal that included major agricultural commitments. Both leaders hailed an “amazing” meeting as they shook hands on a U.S.-China trade truce [18]. Under the accord, China pledged to resume buying U.S. soybeans and energy (after a long halt), while the U.S. agreed to scale back some tariffs [19]. Notably, Beijing said it will defer new rare-earth export controls for a year and the U.S. will cut certain tariffs (for example, halving a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products to 10%) [20].
For American farmers, the centerpiece was China’s promise to restart hefty soybean purchases. Trump told reporters that China would start buying “tremendous amounts of soybeans and other farm products immediately” [21]. The lack of Chinese orders had been devastating – Chinese buyers had shunned the entire U.S. autumn soybean harvest this year, leaving U.S. silos full and prices slumping [22] [23]. Now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed the details: China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans between now and January (the current harvest season) and 25 million tons each year for the next three years [24]. “Our great soybean farmers, who the Chinese used as political pawns – that’s off the table, and they should prosper in the years to come,” Bessent said, emphasizing the deal’s importance for rural America [25].
Those volumes would bring China’s buying roughly back to normal levels. Before the trade war, China was the top customer for U.S. soybeans – purchasing about 30 million tons annually [26]. But during the Trump administration’s first term trade clashes, Beijing imposed stiff retaliatory tariffs (making U.S. soy 23% more expensive) and sharply reduced imports from American farmers [27]. In 2016, the U.S. supplied 41% of China’s soybean imports; by 2024 that share plunged to just 20% [28] as China turned to Brazilian and Argentine soy instead. The new agreement would essentially restore Chinese purchases to their prior scale, undoing some of the trade war’s damage. Bessent noted the deal “represents a return to normalcy” in U.S.-China farm trade, after a months-long halt in purchases from the current U.S. crop [29] [30]. However, both sides stopped short of detailing tariff rollbacks. China’s Commerce Ministry said it will “expand agricultural trade” with the U.S., but gave no specifics [31] [32]. That vagueness left traders wary: “The implementation details matter a lot – for example, will China roll back tariffs or just issue case-by-case exemptions?” noted Even Rogers Pay of Trivium China [33]. Whether China formally lowers its 20–23% duties on U.S. soybeans “makes a big difference” in determining if this is a brief uptick or a sustainable return to the market, she explained [34].
China Starts Buying U.S. Soybeans Again
Symbolism quickly turned into tangible action. In the days surrounding the summit, China made its first U.S. soy purchases in many months – signaling good faith. Shortly before the Trump-Xi talks, China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO quietly booked three cargos of U.S. soybeans (around 180,000 tons) for delivery in December and January [35] [36]. Reuters reported these were China’s first purchases from this year’s U.S. harvest [37]. The timing was significant: Beijing essentially reopened its wallet “even before the two leaders have reached a trade agreement,” one trader noted [38]. Still, at three shipments, the pre-summit volumes were modest. “The volumes…are not that large, three cargoes for now,” the trader said [39] – a cautious sign that China was testing the waters ahead of the deal.
Immediately after the summit, however, buying accelerated. Bloomberg News reported that China purchased at least four more U.S. soybean cargoes following the trade talks, for shipment in late 2025 and early 2026 [40]. These additional orders total roughly 250,000 tons of soybeans [41], on top of the earlier 180,000-ton purchase. Traders said the post-truce shipments will be sourced from both the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Gulf export terminals [42], indicating a broad reopening of supply lines. President Trump crowed that China’s importers would buy a “tremendous” quantity of American soybeans under the truce [43] – and indeed Beijing’s state buyers have begun to make good on that promise in the immediate term.
Despite these encouraging moves, industry experts note that China’s near-term buying, while welcome, remains limited compared to its typical needs. “180,000 tons is a relatively small fraction of China’s annual soybean demand,” one analyst pointed out, given China usually imports over 90 million tons a year globally (with over 30 million from the U.S. in good years) [44] [45]. In other words, China is dipping its toe back in – likely via government entities (COFCO and reserves) – but private Chinese crushers have largely stayed on the sidelines so far. One reason is uncertainty over tariffs. “If the tariff is not completely lifted, commercial buyers will have little incentive to purchase U.S. soybeans,” observed Johnny Xiang of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting [46]. Beijing may be directing its state firms to fulfill the initial purchase commitments, but a broader market-driven resurgence might require more clarity on tariff relief or exemptions. Chinese buyers also remain well supplied from Brazil: after aggressively booking South American soy earlier this year, China has nearly covered its needs through November with Brazilian and Argentine shipments [47] [48]. Only in December-January will China have a gap of a few million tons to fill, and traders say market conditions still “favour Brazil” for much of that business [49]. Still, Beijing signaled it could import about 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans for its strategic reserves in coming months (worth ~$4 billion) if the truce holds, likely via state firms like Sinograin [50]. In short, China’s soybean buying spree has begun – but its scope in the commercial market will hinge on how the trade truce is implemented.
Farm Belt Relief and Reactions
America’s farmers, who have been on the front lines of the U.S.-China trade war, greeted the soybean ceasefire with cautious optimism – and palpable relief. Soybeans are the number one agricultural export for states like Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois, so China’s pullback hit heartland economies hard. Until this week, China hadn’t bought any American soybeans in 2025 due to the dispute [51]. This left U.S. farmers effectively shut out of their biggest market at harvest time, forcing many to store their beans in silos or even emergency bags, waiting (and hoping) for prices to improve. Illinois’ governor went so far as to declare an “agricultural trade crisis” in the state – America’s top soybean producer – citing estimated production losses of $100–$200 per acre thanks to collapsed Chinese demand [52]. The pressure on farmers was immense: they faced surplus stockpiles, five-year-low prices, and rising costs for fertilizer, seeds and equipment [53] [54]. Farm bankruptcies and mental health strains in the Midwest were mounting, prompting state programs to support distressed farm families [55].
Against that backdrop, Beijing’s pledge to reopen the soy trade is being hailed as a lifeline. “It’s fantastic… but I wish it would have come in August or early September,” said Bob Worth, who grows soybeans in southwest Minnesota [56]. By the time the deal arrived in late October, many growers had already sold this season’s crop at depressed prices or paid hefty fees to store it. Worth managed to get a price “close to last year” for his beans, but noted others weren’t so lucky and had to incur storage costs – adding to the financial pain, especially for younger farmers [57]. Still, he’s “optimistic that prices will rise next year” now that the China market is coming back [58].
Farm and commodity organizations echoed that hopeful sentiment. The American Soybean Association (ASA) – representing growers nationwide – applauded the agreement. “This is a meaningful step forward to reestablishing a stable, long-term trading relationship that delivers results for farm families and future generations,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer [59]. The American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest U.S. farm lobby, also praised the breakthrough. “Expanding markets and restoring purchases by China will provide some certainty for farmers who are struggling just to hold on,” said Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall [60]. Those comments underscore how precarious the situation had become in farm country; any boost in export demand could literally spell survival for operations teetering on the edge.
U.S. lawmakers from agricultural states, both Republican and Democrat, have likewise pushed for a resolution to the soybean standoff. Mounting anger in Congress over the trade war’s impact on farmers helped increase pressure for a deal [61]. With elections looming, the Trump administration faced incentives to show progress in helping its rural base. Treasury Secretary Bessent – a key negotiator – highlighted the political significance, noting that China’s cutting off U.S. soy had “used [farmers] as pawns” in the trade war, but now “that’s off the table” [62]. In Washington, the consensus is that while the new soybean purchases won’t erase two years of hardship, they mark a turning point. “Our farmers can finally see light at the end of the tunnel,” said one Midwestern senator, urging China to follow through on its promises.
Jolt to Markets: Soy Prices and Stocks Rebound
News of China’s renewed buying has ricocheted through financial and commodity markets. Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged on hopes of a trade thaw – at one point this week hitting their highest level in over a year [63] [64]. In mid-October, prices had been languishing near five-year lows due to China’s absence [65]. But by Oct. 27, as rumors of a deal swirled, soybeans rebounded sharply. Traders “bought the rumor” of a Trump-Xi agreement, lifting the benchmark price to around $10.90 per bushel (a 15-month high) [66]. After the summit, there was a brief “sell the news” pullback – soybean futures actually fell ~2% on Oct. 30 as the initial announcement lacked detail on Chinese tariff cuts [67]. Prices dipped back to about $10.74 per bushel as of midday Oct. 30 [68]. However, once Bessent publicized the concrete purchase figures and reports broke of China’s cargo buys, the market turned bullish again. By Oct. 30’s close, soybeans reversed losses and climbed 1.2%, settling around $11.08 per bushel – the highest since mid-2024 [69]. In other words, the commodity essentially shrugged off its initial doubts and rallied on optimism that China’s giant appetite is coming back. U.S. export prices for soybeans jumped $20–$30 per ton in a matter of days as exporters anticipated “fresh demand” from China’s orders [70].
The stock market also reacted strongly. The prospect of a U.S.-China truce fueled a broad rally in late October. In fact, Wall Street hit record highs in the days leading up to and just after the summit [71]. On October 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 47,545 – an all-time peak – and the S&P 500 at roughly 6,875, on hopes that easing trade tensions would bolster the global economy [72]. (Investors were also buoyed by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Oct. 29, which added to the bullish sentiment [73].) Technology stocks led much of the advance, but agricultural and commodity sectors also got a lift as soybean and corn prices climbed on China’s vow to buy U.S. farm goods [74]. Grain traders noted that even a partial restoration of Chinese demand improves the outlook for companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd., which dominate U.S. soy processing and exports. Shares of these agribusiness giants rose on the trade news, as analysts predicted higher volumes and better pricing power for their soybean businesses [75]. Farm equipment makers and fertilizer suppliers could also benefit if American farmers see higher crop revenues and increased planting in response to reopened trade.
Globally, the trade truce rippled across markets. In Asia, soybean prices on China’s Dalian exchange jumped in anticipation of import needs, and the yuan currency strengthened slightly on improved U.S.-China relations. In the U.S., the farm economy stands to gain from firmer commodity prices – potentially boosting rural incomes and land values if the trend holds. Some farmers already report local cash soybean bids ticking up by 20–30 cents per bushel after the deal, a welcome change from the doldrums of recent months. “It’s been a long time since we’ve had any bullish news – this definitely put some life back into the market,” said one Illinois grain elevator manager. Still, he cautioned that sustained price increases will depend on China actually following through with large purchases in the coming weeks and months.
Deal or No Deal? Outlook and Remaining Hurdles
While the new U.S.-China accord has clearly eased the strain on soybean farmers for now, many observers emphasize that it is not yet a permanent peace in the trade war. In essence, China has agreed to buy something close to what it was buying pre-2018, which is undoubtedly positive, but not transformational. “It targets a level of trade that has been pretty consistent with the past few years,” noted Trivium’s Even Pay, suggesting the deal mostly puts things “back to business as usual” [76]. Indeed, U.S. soybean exports to China averaged about 28–30 million tons per year in the mid-2010s [77]. If China now purchases 25 million annually under the agreement (plus additional volumes from other Asian countries that the U.S. said it lined up), that essentially restores the status quo ante. “These…are not numbers that are unattainable, but they’re also not numbers that really support the idea of expansion for our export program,” observed Ted Seifried, chief market strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge [78]. In other words, the deal will stop the bleeding for U.S. agriculture, but it may not create a new boom unless China’s buying exceeds the minimum pledges.
A key question is tariffs. The pact announced a buying commitment, but neither side publicly confirmed reductions in the punitive tariffs that started the whole conflict. American soybeans going into China still face about a 23% import duty, a result of tit-for-tat tariffs from the trade war [79]. Beijing can waive these tariffs for state entities or through special licenses (and it likely will for the promised 12 million tons to get done quickly), but private Chinese crushers would be reluctant to pay a 20%+ premium for U.S. beans versus Brazilian beans. “It is disappointing… that no details were announced,” said one international oilseed trader, noting that “the market had been expecting China to cut tariffs on U.S. soybean imports” as part of the deal [80]. So far, that hasn’t happened. If China does not formally lift or lower the tariffs, state-run firms might carry out the bulk of purchases, while commercial companies stick to cheaper South American supplies. On the U.S. side, tariffs on Chinese products also mostly remain in place (apart from the small reduction on a subset of goods). This means many underlying trade frictions are unresolved – from technology export controls to agricultural subsidy disputes. “Analysts stress this truce is not a strategic reset: tech competition and high tariffs largely remain” despite the handshake [81]. The current deal is explicitly a one-year pause on further escalation [82], giving the two nations a chance to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement. If relations sour again or either side fails to meet commitments, the tariff war could ramp right back up after the truce period.
For now, the mood is one of relief coupled with realism. U.S. officials say the agreement negotiated over the weekend in Malaysia (ahead of the summit) could be formally signed within days [83]. That would lock in China’s obligations on paper. China’s government has signaled it will begin implementation immediately – its Commerce Ministry said it will “expand farm trade” with the U.S., albeit “without specifying scale or timing” [84] [85]. There is also talk of additional Asian markets stepping up: Bessent revealed that other Southeast Asian nations agreed to buy another 19 million tons of U.S. soybeans (though it’s unclear over what timeframe) [86] [87]. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand or the Philippines may have been pressed by the U.S. to increase imports as part of broader Indo-Pacific trade discussions. Those could further help U.S. farmers diversify their export outlets beyond China.
However, China remains the 600-pound gorilla in the soybean world – it accounts for over 60% of global soybean imports [88]. So, the success or failure of this accord will hinge largely on Chinese buying behavior. Market watchers will be scrutinizing each week’s export sales reports and shipping lineup to see if the promised volumes are materializing. Early evidence is encouraging (with the seven cargoes booked so far), but there’s a long way to go to reach 12 million tons by January. Logistics and timing are factors too: U.S. Gulf Coast ports are in the midst of peak harvest export season now, and Pacific Northwest terminals will be shipping heavily through the winter. The U.S. harvest is large – expected to be the fifth-biggest on record [89] – so there is ample supply available if China truly opens the spigot.
In the bigger picture, this soybean deal appears to be part of a broader, fragile thaw in U.S.-China economic relations. It comes as both nations face incentives to calm tensions: the U.S. is eyeing elections and trying to curb inflation (helped by stronger farm exports), while China’s economy has been slowing, making it more amenable to imported commodities and foreign investment. “Deal between the US and China is undoing damage from a self-inflicted trade war,” one AP News analysis concluded [90]. Yet strategic rivalry persists on many fronts (technology, geopolitics, etc.), meaning this agricultural buying spree could be more a marriage of convenience than a sign of true rapprochement. As a precaution, Chinese firms have diversified their supply chains over the past two years – locking in big soybean acreage and trading partnerships in Brazil, stepping up domestic soybean production slightly, and even exploring alternatives like soy substitutes. Beijing will likely keep that diversified strategy even if it returns as a top U.S. customer, as it “does not want to be overly reliant on any single supplier” going forward [91]. U.S. farmers, for their part, have sought new markets in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Egypt to lessen the China dependency, though none can fully replace China’s scale.
Bottom Line: The new soybean trade accord is a badly needed win for American farmers and a hopeful sign that the U.S.-China trade war’s darkest days may be over. China’s immediate purchases of U.S. beans and its three-year commitment signal a desire to mend fences – or at least to secure affordable feedstock for its own needs. Markets have responded with relief: prices and sentiment have rebounded from the trade-war doldrums. However, this is more relief rally than breakthrough. The deal essentially puts the clock back to 2017 in the farm trade relationship, without addressing many fundamental issues. As one agribusiness expert put it, “We’ll need to see real action and stability before confidence returns” for the long term [92]. In the coming months, all eyes will be on whether China’s promised “tremendous” buying actually materializes – and whether this fragile truce can blossom into a durable peace, or simply fade after the political winds shift. For now, though, U.S. soybean country is celebrating a hard-fought victory, hopeful that the soybean sails bound for China this season are just the beginning of better days ahead [93] [94].
Sources: Bloomberg; Reuters; Axios; AP News; TS² Financial News [95] [96] [97] [98] [99].
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