Key facts (Nov 4, 2025):
- Spot gold dipped as low as $3,970/oz early Tuesday, then pared losses to around $3,994/oz at 12:10 GMT; Dec COMEX futures hovered near $4,005/oz. [1]
- Drivers today: a pause in the dollar’s rally and slightly softer 10‑year U.S. yields helped stabilize prices after an early slide below $4,000. [2]
- Other metals: silver ~$47.80/oz, platinum ~$1,558/oz, palladium ~$1,405/oz (midday GMT). [3]
- Equities tied to gold: GLD last $368.78, GDX about $71.30, and Newmont (NEM) near $81.62 (prices delayed; intraday ranges narrow). [4]
- Macro context: The Fed cut rates last week for the 2nd time in 2025 but signaled no guarantee of another cut; markets now see ~65% odds for December. [5]
- Positioning backdrop: Q3 gold demand hit a quarterly record, with central banks buying ~220t (+10% y/y)and ETF inflows surging, per WGC. [6]
What happened today
Gold started the session on the back foot—slipping below $4,000/oz as the dollar extended last week’s strength—then recovered most losses by midday as the greenback cooled and U.S. yields eased. At 06:25 GMT, spot was ~$3,970, but by 12:10 GMT prices had improved to ~$3,994. December futures were near $4,004.70. [7]
The intraday swing reflects the push‑pull of currency and rates: Reuters noted the dollar index eased after a three‑month high, while 10‑year Treasury yields drifted off Monday’s peak—both supportive for non‑yielding gold. [8]
What the pros are saying
“Gold is consolidating in the region of $4,000,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa of Swissquote, adding the next few weeks will help determine whether the market resumes its rally or corrects. [9]
Fawad Razaqzada of City Index/FOREX.com noted that the “initial break below [$4,000] triggered a wave of technical selling and unwinding of long positions.” [10]
Cross‑asset check
- Dollar & yields: The USD rally paused today after recent highs; benchmark 10‑year yields eased versus Monday. (For reference, external trackers show the 10‑year around ~4.1% today.) [11]
- Risk sentiment: Related coverage shows risk assets wobbly as traders reassess the odds of another 2025 Fed cut. [12]
Stocks & ETFs linked to gold (as of publication; delayed quotes)
- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): $368.78; 52‑week $236.13–$403.30. [13]
- VanEck Gold Miners (GDX): ~$71.30 (−~1.0% intraday). [14]
- Newmont (NEM): ~$81.62. [15]
Prices are indicative and may update; check your broker for live quotes.
Big‑picture backdrop: still supportive, but choppy
- Policy: The Fed’s second cut of 2025 is in the rearview, and Chair Powell stressed another move this year is “not a foregone conclusion.” Markets put ~65% odds on a December cut—less bullish than a week ago—leaving gold sensitive to incoming data (ADP, ISM). [16]
- Demand: The World Gold Council says Q3 demand hit a record 1,313t, powered by ETF inflows and bar/coin buying; central bank purchases climbed to ~220t (+10% y/y). That structural bid has helped cushion pullbacks. [17]
Forecasts & scenarios
- Banks’ targets:
- Morgan Stanley sees potential for $4,500/oz by mid‑2026, citing ETF and central‑bank demand as rates drift lower. [18]
- ANZ (Sept) lifted its 2025 year‑end target to $3,800, peaking near $4,000 by mid‑2026 on robust investment demand and official‑sector buying. [19]
- Goldman Sachs has discussed upside toward ~$5,000 under a stress scenario where perceived threats to Fed independence spark bigger private shifts into gold; base‑case eyes $4,000 by mid‑2026. [20]
Our read (near‑term):
- Base case (next 1–2 weeks): Range‑trade around $3,950–$4,050 as markets digest jobs and PMI data and December Fed odds oscillate. A firm USD/up‑yields combo argues for choppy consolidation. [21]
- Bull case: A softer dollar and cooler data revive cut hopes, inviting tests of $4,080–$4,150 (recent resistance zone). [22]
- Bear case: A decisive USD breakout or rates re‑acceleration risks a push toward $3,900 and, if momentum builds, $3,700–$3,800 support flagged by recent sell‑side chatter. [23]
Levels to watch
- Support: $3,950 (round‑number/spot shelf), then $3,900; deeper support $3,700–$3,800 if risk‑off turns into position clean‑up. [24]
- Resistance: $4,050–$4,100, then $4,150+ (area of mid‑October highs). [25]
Today’s related headlines (Nov 4)
- Gold trims losses as dollar rally pauses; eyes U.S. data. [26]
- Rand weakens as gold slips below $4,000 earlier in session. [27]
- Dollar narrative: rally cooled today after touching a three‑month high on Monday. [28]
Data notes & sources
Spot and futures prices, expert quotes, and macro context are from Reuters intraday market reports on Nov 4, 2025; additional spot snapshots and yields from TradingEconomics and WGC provide corroboration on levels and demand trends; ETF and miner quotes are from Reuters quote pages (delayed). [29]
This article is for general information only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
