Is ALAR Stock the Next AI Goldmine? Discover Alarum’s Explosive Run and What Analysts Are Saying!

Current Price: Around $16.25 (Nov 3, 2025 close) after a modest uptick; recent trading has held in the mid-$16 range ^[1] ^[2].
YTD Performance: Up roughly +55% year-to-date, with an astonishing ~150% jump over the past six months ^[3]. Shares hit their 52-week high (~$18.00) in recent months ^[4] ^[5].
Q1 2025 (May 2025): Revenue $7.1M, net profit $0.4M, Adjusted EBITDA $1.3M ^[6]. Management noted “strong momentum” from AI and e‑commerce customers ^[7].
Q2 2025 (Aug 2025): Revenue $8.8M, net profit $0.3M, Adjusted EBITDA $1.0M ^[8]. CEO Shahar Daniel emphasized “very strong demand” from AI leaders and expansion of customer usage ^[9].
Growth Outlook: Q3 2025 guidance is very bullish: $12.8M forecast (≈+78% YoY) and ~$1.1M EBITDA ^[10] ^[11]. A new large AI-data contract (~$3M) is expected to drive much of Q3 revenue ^[12].
Analyst Sentiment: Consensus is bullish – StockAnalysis rates ALAR a “Strong Buy” with a 12‑month target ~$27 ^[13]. Canaccord Genuity raised its target to $22 and reiterated Buy ^[14]. One firm (Weiss) is bearish (“Sell (D)” rating) ^[15], leaving an overall Hold/Buy consensus (avg. target ~$22) ^[16].
Technical Signals: Chart indicators are constructive. The stock recently broke a multi-week base (Oct 22 pivot bottom buy signal, +15.7% since) and trades above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages ^[17]. Short- and long-term moving averages are aligned bullishly ^[18], with nearby support around ~$15.4.
Financial Health: Alarum boasts a solid balance sheet (cash ≈$24–25M) ^[19] ^[20] and low debt. InvestingPro gives it a “GREAT” health score (3.67/5), citing strong momentum and cash flow ^[21], though some metrics (like gross margins) have compressed due to heavy AI-related investment.

Stock Price Performance (as of Nov 4, 2025)

Alarum Technologies (NYSE: ALAR) has rallied strongly in 2025. After closing around $16.25 on Nov 3 ^[22], the stock is off its all-time high (~$18.00) but still stands well above its 2024 lows (~$5.45 ^[23]). In the last two weeks alone it has gained ~10.8% ^[24]. Year-to-date shares are up about +55% ^[25], driven by excitement over AI-related business. Volume has picked up on rising days, indicating positive investor interest ^[26]. Notably, the 50-day moving average is rising and has crossed above the 200-day average, a classic bullish signal ^[27].

Recent trading has been a bit choppy. For example, a dip to ~$15.55 intraday (Nov 4 opening) was quickly bought back, keeping the uptrend intact. MarketBeat data shows ALAR changing hands near $14.33 in late Oct ^[28], then rebounding into November. Overall the price chart points to consolidation in a wide range ($13–17) with multiple buy indicators signaling further upside potential ^[29] ^[30].

Recent News & Press Releases

In the last week (late Oct – early Nov 2025) Alarum itself has had limited new announcements (Q3 results weren’t out yet). However, investors have been digesting several press releases and reports from prior quarters. Key recent news includes:

Q2 2025 Earnings (Aug 28, 2025) – A GlobeNewswire release announced Q2 financials: “Q2 2025 revenues of $8.8 million, net profit of $0.3 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 million” ^[31]. CEO Shahar Daniel commented: “Our focus and progress this quarter… are mainly driven by very strong demand for data from major global players in the AI segment for training large language and other foundational models,” and that Alarum’s solutions are “gaining traction with global leaders” ^[32]. Daniel noted broad expansion by AI and e-commerce customers on Alarum’s platform, and warned of possible quarterly volatility as AI adoption matures ^[33]. He concluded: “We believe that Alarum is exactly in the right place at the heart of the AI revolution, with tremendous opportunities ahead.” ^[34]
Q1 2025 Earnings (May 29, 2025) – The Q1 release (May 29, 2025) showed revenue $7.1M, net $0.4M profit, EBITDA $1.3M ^[35]. Daniel said Q1 had “strong momentum” from AI/e-commerce customers ^[36] and highlighted strategic investment in infrastructure and next-gen technology ^[37]. Notably, Net Retention Rate was 1.13 for Q1 ^[38], indicating upsell strength.
Q3 2024 Class Action Deadline (Aug 2024) – Though outside 2025, note that in March 2025 law firms issued a deadline alert for a class-action lawsuit tied to Q3 2024 guidance (which had shocked investors) ^[39]. This older litigation context lingers, but recent disclosures and 2025 results have so far avoided any new lawsuits.

In mid-2025 Alarum also announced its participation in investor events (e.g. an August Canaccord Genuity conference ^[40]) and updated its Q2 outlook twice (raising Q2 revenue to $8.8M in June from a prior $7.9M forecast ^[41]). No new press releases came out in the last few days before Nov 4, so the stock is moving mostly on existing guidance and market sentiment.

Financial and Business Developments

Alarum’s growth story centers on web-data services for AI and e-commerce clients. Its two segments (enterprise and consumer proxies) are positioned to feed the surge in AI training data. Key developments:

Revenues & Margins: Q1 and Q2 2025 showed flat-to-slightly-down revenue versus year-ago, as legacy customers paused but new AI-driven clients ramped up. Q1 revenue was $7.1M vs $8.4M in Q1 2024 ^[42] (–15%), and Q2 was $8.8M vs $8.9M in Q2 2024 ^[43]. Gross margins dipped (Q2 non-IFRS margin ~63% vs ~78% a year ago ^[44]) due to deliberate infrastructure investments. CEO Daniel explained that these spendings (on servers, proxy capacity, R&D) “reinforce our position as a foundational player in the AI data ecosystem” ^[45] ^[46].
Profitability: The company has swung back to modest profitability. Q1 2025 net profit was $0.4M (EPS ~$0.06) ^[47], Q2 net was $0.3M ^[48], compared to losses in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA remains low (~$1.0–1.3M each quarter) reflecting ongoing R&D. Alarum has indicated it will sacrifice some short-term margin to chase larger AI contracts that promise much higher future revenue ^[49] ^[50].
Balance Sheet: Cash & investments are strong (~$24–25M end of both Q1 and Q2) ^[51] ^[52], with essentially no debt. Shareholders’ equity climbed to $29.1M by June 30, 2025 ^[53]. This ample liquidity underpins the aggressive capex on data-center/proxy infrastructure.
Pipeline: Management reports an “extremely dynamic” pipeline of AI/data projects ^[54]. New partnerships cited include a major Asian marketplace, global electronics and AI firms ^[55] ^[56]. The mix is shifting heavily toward AI clients (with richer contracts) and away from other segments. As a result, the net revenue retention (NRR) dipped to 0.98 in Q2 ^[57], versus 1.13 in Q1 ^[58] – meaning past clients are mostly flat, but new large deals will spike growth in coming quarters.

Overall, Alarum is reinvesting its profits to scale its proxy network and software platform. CEO Daniel stressed: “We are investing in innovation, in infrastructure, in growing our customer base” to cement Alarum’s role in the AI era ^[59] ^[60]. This strategy has so far drawn cautious investor approval, as shown by their post-earnings rally.

Analyst Commentary & Forecasts

Analysts are generally optimistic about Alarum’s AI-driven growth. Key highlights:

Price Targets: Canaccord Genuity on Aug 26, 2025 raised its target from $15 to $22, maintaining a “Buy” rating ^[61]. StockAnalysis.com (compiling Wall Street data) notes an average 12‑month target of $27.00 ^[62]. Similarly, Benzinga reports a consensus target ~$25 (high $27) from two analysts ^[63]. However, Weiss Ratings, an independent group, has been bearish: it reiterated a “Sell (D)” grade in Oct 2025 ^[64]. Overall MarketBeat shows one buy vs one sell among analysts, yielding a Hold/Buy consensus with ~$22 average target ^[65].
Earnings Estimates: Wall Street expects modest EPS growth. For Q3 2025 (Nov earnings), consensus is an EPS of ~$0.02 (preliminary) ^[66]. The company’s own guidance ($12.8M revenue, $1.1M EBITDA) implies continuing thin margins. Analysts point out that improving scale could lift margins late 2025/2026. No major forecast revisions have come in since summer, suggesting analysts remain “watchful and constructive” on Alarum’s narrative.
Bull vs Bear Views: Supporters emphasize Alarum’s unique niche and first-mover advantage in data proxies for AI. One Seeking Alpha article (Aug 2025) argues ALAR is “well positioned to benefit from AI/ML revolution” ^[67]. Many analysts cite the expanded customer wins and financial turnaround as evidence Alarum can grow rapidly. Bears worry that this is a small cap (market cap ~$100–120M ^[68]) dependent on a few large projects. They note Weiss’s caution (citing ranking/profile risks). But as of Nov 2025 the prevailing commentary is cautiously bullish, awaiting execution.
Management Guidance: Company forecasts itself continued strong revenue growth. Its own slides (and the [Investing transcript][29]) highlight Q3 at +78% YOY and a multi-year vision of AI demand. CFO Shay Avni (on Q2 call) indicated 2025 total revenue may exceed prior year if the pipeline hits ^[69]. No short-term guidance cuts have been announced; on the contrary, Alarum has twice raised its outlook in 2025 (e.g. June 2025 boosted Q2 from $7.9M to $8.8M ^[70]).

“We are investing to ensure Alarum cements itself as a central player in this new era,” CEO Daniel said on Q2 results ^[71] – a line echoed by analysts who see long-term upside despite near-term volatility.

Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

Investor sentiment toward ALAR is cautiously optimistic. The trading volume and recent modest price rebound suggest momentum has returned after a late-October pullback. Several technical signals are constructive:

Trend and Patterns: The stock broke out of a sideways range (~$13–16) in October, triggering buy signals on a pivot-bottom system ^[72]. The 3-month MACD is in a buy position and the short-term (14-day) moving average has crossed above the long-term (40-day) average ^[73] – both positive signs.
Support/Resistance: Chart analyses note strong support near $15.38–15.58 (accumulated volume zones) ^[74]. On the upside, resistance lies near $16.46–16.50 (recent highs) ^[75]. A clear break above ~$16.7 would indicate a bullish trend shift ^[76]. Given these levels, some analysts advise setting stops just below ~$15.6 to manage risk.
Indicators: Momentum indicators are mixed. According to an Investing.com analysis, ALAR’s RSI was edging into overbought territory post-Q2 ^[77], suggesting caution after strong runs. On the other hand, InvestingPro data (Aug 2025) rated Alarum’s overall financial health 3.67/5 (“Great”), highlighting robust momentum and cash flow ^[78]. In essence, the stock has been surging, but technical oscillators hint it may consolidate before moving much higher.

Overall market sentiment appears more bullish than bearish. Long-term trend lines and moving averages favor upside, and analysts’ “Buy” ratings (Canaccord, etc.) outweigh negative grades. According to [42], our AI-powered analysis, ALAR was recently upgraded from “Hold” to a “Buy” candidate as technical signals have turned positive ^[79]. Meanwhile, Alarum remains a small-cap “story stock,” so it remains sensitive to broader tech/AI market swings.

Peer Comparison

Alarum is a niche player with few direct public comparables. Its mix of proxy-network and data-collection software is unique. However, it can be loosely compared to other small-cap SaaS or cybersecurity names. On metrics:

Valuation: The stock trades around a PE of ~19 (using 2025 estimated EPS) ^[80], which is typical for high-growth tech names of this size. Its 52-week range ($5–18) is much wider than large-cap techs, reflecting higher volatility. With about $102M market cap ^[81], Alarum is far smaller than most AI-tech stocks, making it more of an “investor speculation” story.
Growth vs. Peers: Its revenue growth (+78% guidance for Q3) vastly outpaces established software companies, but this is from a low base. Compared to publicly traded “AI infrastructure” firms (e.g. Palantir, C3.ai, etc.), ALAR’s absolute revenue is tiny (Q2 was $8.8M vs. hundreds of millions for big names). Alarum’s gross margins (~62% in Q2) are somewhat lower than top SaaS peers, due to heavy capital costs for proxies.
Risk Profile: Unique to Alarum is its heavy reliance on a few large AI/data contracts and its Israeli base (also listed on the Tel Aviv exchange). These factors mean ALAR’s risk profile is different than a Nasdaq-only US tech stock. Nonetheless, in a rising AI cycle, it could outperform many more mature tech peers due to its highly targeted niche.

In sum, Alarum’s peer group is scattered: it sits between web-proxy providers, e-commerce data firms, and small AI infrastructure plays. Its performance (YTD +55%) outstrips average tech indices, but that came after a very low prior-year base. Investors should compare it to other small-cap AI/tech stocks rather than stable large-cap peers.

Sources

All data and quotes are from company releases and analyst reports. Financial results and CEO comments are from Alarum’s official press releases ^[82] ^[83]. Stock performance and analysts’ views are compiled from financial news and research sites (Investing.com, MarketBeat, StockAnalysis.com) ^[84] ^[85] ^[86]. Technical observations come from independent chart analyses ^[87] ^[88].