Constellation Energy (CEG) narrows 2025 outlook after Q3 EPS miss; CEG stock slips today (07.11.2025)

Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) reported third‑quarter results this morning, tightening its full‑year 2025 earnings guidance after a modest earnings miss. Adjusted operating EPS came in at $3.04, below the LSEG consensus (~$3.12), on $6.57 billion in revenue, up slightly year over year. The company now sees 2025 adjusted EPS of $9.05–$9.45 (midpoint $9.25). Shares traded lower in early action on the update. 1

Key takeaways (as of 07.11.2025)

• EPS miss, revenue essentially flat: Q3 adjusted operating EPS $3.04 vs. consensus near $3.12; revenue $6.57B vs. $6.55B a year ago. GAAP EPS $2.97. Guidance narrowed to $9.05–$9.45 for FY25. 1
• Stock reaction: CEG shares traded lower intraday following the print (see live chart above). External coverage also noted a break below recent technical levels. 2
• Operations strong: Nuclear fleet output rose to 46,477 GWh with a 96.8% capacity factor (ex‑Salem/STP). Management cited “favorable market and portfolio conditions,” partly offset by lower nuclear PTC revenue tied to higher anticipated gross receipts. 3
• Hydro milestone: Maryland issued a revised water quality certification for the Conowingo Dam, clearing the path to re‑licensing after a $340 million settlement announced last month. 3

What moved the numbers

Earnings vs. expectations. Constellation posted adjusted operating EPS of $3.04; analysts were looking for roughly $3.12. Total operating expenses increased about 7.8% year over year to $5.48B, pressuring margins, while revenue ticked up to $6.57B from $6.55B. 1

Guidance tightened. Full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS was narrowed to $9.05–$9.45 (from $8.90–$9.60 previously). Several outlets noted the midpoint sits below some street estimates (e.g., FactSet near $9.49). 1

Fleet performance. Nuclear operations remained a bright spot: output climbed to 46,477 GWh and the capacity factor improved to 96.8% (ex‑Salem/STP). Planned refueling days fell to 23 (from 37 a year ago), and non‑refueling outage days dropped to 5 (from 20). 3

Strategy & policy context investors are watching

Conowingo Dam re‑licensing back on track. In October 2025, Maryland’s Department of the Environment issued a revised Water Quality Certification for Conowingo—part of a $340 million settlement addressing sediment, debris, fish passage and other Chesapeake Bay impacts. Constellation highlighted the certification in today’s release as a key step to long‑term operation of the hydro facility. 4

Maryland build‑out plan (Nov. 4). Earlier this week, Constellation proposed up to 5,800 MW of new generation and battery storage in Maryland to meet rising demand—~800 MW battery storage, >700 MW fast‑track gas units convertible to hydrogen, uprates and potential 2,000 MW of next‑gen nuclear at Calvert Cliffs, plus a 1,000 MW “virtual power plant” via expanded demand response. 5

Calpine acquisition still approaching the finish line. The company reiterated it is “approaching the close” of the Calpine transaction. Key approvals—including FERC—have been secured; the deal has been expected to close in Q4 2025, pending remaining conditions. 3

Market reaction and coverage

Financial press framed the day as a mixed report: healthy operations and secular demand tailwinds for data‑center power offset by the EPS shortfall and tighter guidance. Some technical analysts noted the stock slipping below a recent buy point on the news. 2

By the numbers (Q3 2025)

• GAAP EPS:$2.97; Adjusted operating EPS:$3.04 (vs. $2.74 in Q3’24)
• Revenue:$6.57B (vs. $6.55B in Q3’24)
• Nuclear output:46,477 GWh; Capacity factor:96.8% (ex‑Salem/STP)
• Guidance (FY25):$9.05–$9.45 adjusted EPS
• Earnings call:Today at 10:00 a.m. ET (webcast on the investor site)
  3

What’s next

• Management webcast at 10:00 a.m. ET with slides posted to the investor site; look for color on price hedges, outage cadence, and Calpine integration milestones. 3
• Regulatory milestones to watch: final FERC licensing steps for Conowingo and remaining closing conditions for Calpine. 4

Context & recent corporate actions

• Dividend: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3878 per share (record Nov. 17, payable Dec. 5, 2025). 6

Sources

Company press release and filings; independent news coverage and state agency documents. Key references: Constellation Q3 2025 results release; Reuters earnings coverage; FT/Business Wire postings of the release; MDE documentation on Conowingo; and additional market coverage. 3

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.