At a glance
• Last trade Friday: $102.59; 52‑week range $79.81–$109.58; forward P/E ~39; dividend yield ~0.92%. [1]
• Next catalyst: Q3 FY26 earnings expected Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025 (before market open). Street consensus points to ~$0.60 EPS and ~$175B revenue. [2]
• Macro in focus this week: U.S. CPI for October on Thu., Nov. 13 (8:30 a.m. ET) and October retail sales on Fri., Nov. 14 (8:30 a.m. ET). Both can sway retail sentiment and big‑box shares. [3]
• Holiday catalysts: Walmart’s Black Friday “Deals Events” kick off Nov. 14 (Walmart+ early access Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. ET), alongside new AI‑powered shopping features rolling out in the app and stores. [4]
Why today matters for WMT (Nov. 10, 2025)
It’s the final calm before a data‑heavy week that can reset expectations for holiday spending. CPI lands Thursday and the Census retail report hits Friday—both just days before Walmart’s first Black Friday event and 10 days before earnings. Positioning ahead of those prints often shows up in pre‑market flows for retail bellwethers like WMT. [5]
Price, valuation and the setup
Walmart closed Friday at $102.59, near the middle of its 52‑week range, with a forward P/E around 39 and a dividend yield near 0.92%. That valuation premium reflects investor confidence in higher‑margin growth vectors (advertising, memberships, marketplace) and steady share gains in a value‑seeking consumer backdrop. Reuters’ dashboard also shows a Buy‑leaning analyst composite (mean rating ~1.7 on a 1–5 scale). [6]
Near‑term catalysts to watch this week
- Holiday promotions and traffic
Walmart’s Black Friday “Deals Events” begin Nov. 14, with early online access for Walmart+ members on Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. ET. Expect marketing push and site/app traffic to ramp mid‑week. The retailer has also leaned into value messaging, offering a 2025 Thanksgiving basket priced under $4 per person—useful context for average ticket and mix conversations. [7] - Macro prints that move retail
Thursday’s CPI can shape rate expectations, risk appetite and the narrative around real purchasing power through the holidays. Friday’s retail sales—especially general merchandise and nonstore categories—will color comps debates across big‑box peers. [8] - Digital and AI execution
Walmart just detailed five new AI‑powered shopping features (e.g., store‑specific savings discovery, 3D showrooms, party‑planning copilot) designed to speed product discovery and conversion—timed for peak season. Separately, Walmart has been experimenting with conversational commerce; recent reporting highlighted a partnership that lets shoppers buy items directly in ChatGPT, underscoring the push to reduce friction from search to checkout. [9]
What the last quarter told us (and why it matters now)
• Mix shift to higher‑margin streams: In Q2 FY26 (reported Aug. 21), global advertising revenue rose 46% year over year (helped by Vizio), while Walmart Connect U.S. ad sales climbed 31%. Membership income grew 15.3% globally. These engines help offset pricing pressure and logistics costs. [10]
• E‑commerce acceleration: Global e‑commerce rose 25%, led by store‑fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace growth—key for holiday throughput. [11]
• Guidance into Q3 FY26 (the quarter Walmart reports next week): Net sales (cc) +3.75% to +4.75%, operating income (cc) +3% to +6%, and adjusted EPS of $0.58–$0.60. Watch whether holiday promos and inflation trends push management to fine‑tune that range. [12]
• Capital returns: Year‑to‑date through Q2, Walmart repurchased ~67M shares (~$6.2B) with ~$5.9B authorization remaining under a $20B program. That offers an ongoing support mechanism on dips. [13]
Structural drivers heading into the holidays
• Retail media + Connected TV: Walmart’s acquisition of Vizio (transaction closed Dec. 3, 2024) expands its CTV footprint and data graph, supporting ad revenue and profitability. Expect investor questions on ad‑load, targeting and cross‑channel measurement into earnings. [14]
• Supply chain modernization: From automation partnerships to store‑fulfilled last mile, Walmart’s operating cadence relies on speed and cost control—important as promotions scale. (Management did flag tariff‑related cost headwinds earlier this year, a margin watch‑item if discounting intensifies). [15]
• Dividends: The board lifted the annual dividend 13% to $0.94 per share for FY26; the next quarterly installment is scheduled for payment on Jan. 5, 2026 to holders of record on Dec. 12, 2025. [16]
Holiday playbook specifics you can trade around
• Event timing: “Deals Event 1” runs Nov. 14–16 (online and in stores), with Walmart+ early access starting Nov. 13. Expect social buzz and app ranking lifts in the back half of this week; commentary from competitors (Target, Amazon) can add read‑through for category mix and depth of promotions. [17]
• Value messaging: Reuters notes Walmart’s Thanksgiving basket is below $4 per person, and retailers broadly are leaning on private label and curated bundles to keep “headline” meal costs low—helpful for unit elasticity but potentially dilutive to mix if branded trade‑down accelerates. [18]
Street’s expectations into earnings (Nov. 20)
Consensus skews toward modest EPS growth and mid‑single‑digit top‑line expansion for Q3 FY26. Several trackers place EPS near $0.60 and revenue roughly $175B–$176B; Walmart’s own Q3 guide implies EPS of $0.58–$0.60. The tug‑of‑war is between strong traffic (value, grocery, health & wellness, marketplace) and margin noise (promotions, tariffs, shrink, general liability claims). [19]
Key watch‑items before the open today
• Futures sensitivity to CPI/retail‑sales odds: Any shift in implied inflation path can quickly flow through to retail multiples—WMT’s premium valuation makes it more sensitive to rerates than lower‑multiple peers. [20]
• Early Black Friday reads: Track Walmart app rankings, web outages/queues, and third‑party deal scrape chatter from tonight through mid‑week; strength here can front‑run positive holiday tone on the Nov. 20 call. [21]
• Ad and membership color: With global ads +46% last quarter and Walmart+ fee income up double digits, any sign these higher‑margin streams are accelerating into November would support the bull case. [22]
Bull/base/bear scenarios into the week
• Bull: Softer‑than‑feared CPI, solid October retail sales, strong Walmart+ early‑access engagement, and stable promo depth → sentiment turns to “profitable growth,” supporting multiple expansion into earnings. [23]
• Base: In‑line CPI/retail sales, robust but disciplined promotions, holiday features drive conversion without heavy margin trade‑offs → WMT tracks broader retail factor moves into Nov. 20. [24]
• Bear: CPI surprise to the upside + aggressive discounting + tariff/mix pressure → investors lean into margin caution and fade the premium multiple ahead of results. [25]
Housekeeping for dividend and capital returns
• Share repurchases: ~$6.2B bought back YTD through Q2; ~$5.9B authorization still available. [26]
• Dividend calendar: FY26 dividend of $0.94 per share (quarterly $0.235). Record date for the next payment is Dec. 12, 2025; payable Jan. 5, 2026. [27]
Bottom line
Heading into Monday’s open (Nov. 10), the WMT setup hinges on three things: macro prints (CPI and retail sales), first reads on Black Friday conversion, and confirmation that higher‑margin engines (advertising, memberships, marketplace) are still outgrowing the core. With earnings on Nov. 20 and event‑one promotions starting Friday, this week’s data and demand signals will likely drive the next leg in WMT’s narrative more than last quarter’s short‑term margin noise. [28]
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.bls.gov, 4. corporate.walmart.com, 5. www.bls.gov, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. corporate.walmart.com, 8. www.bls.gov, 9. corporate.walmart.com, 10. stock.walmart.com, 11. stock.walmart.com, 12. stock.walmart.com, 13. stock.walmart.com, 14. corporate.walmart.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. corporate.walmart.com, 17. corporate.walmart.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.zacks.com, 20. www.bls.gov, 21. corporate.walmart.com, 22. stock.walmart.com, 23. www.bls.gov, 24. corporate.walmart.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. stock.walmart.com, 27. corporate.walmart.com, 28. www.bls.gov
