Summary (TL;DR)
- Spot: USD/CHF trades roughly 0.8060–0.8070 around mid‑day Monday, little changed on the session. [1]
- Drivers today: Hopes that a U.S. government funding measure advances kept the dollar broadly steady; markets still price roughly a ~60% chance of a December Fed cut, leaving majors—including CHF—range‑bound. [2]
- Swiss side: SNB policy rate at 0% and “willing to be active” in FX if needed; October CPI slowed to 0.1% YoY, keeping the franc’s fundamentals firm. [3]
- Base case (24–48h): Range 0.8000–0.8120 ahead of U.S. CPI on 13 Nov; a break decides the next leg. [4]
Where USD/CHF Stands Now (10 November 2025)
- Official daily reading: The Swiss National Bank’s data portal shows 1 USD = 0.8059 CHF for 10.11.2025. [5]
- Real‑time market snapshot: Reuters quotes USDCHF=X “trading higher ~0.81 CHF” with today’s range 0.80–0.81 and open 0.8052 (values delayed up to 15 minutes). [6]
- Intraday range detail: Investing.com lists today’s USD/CHF range at 0.8048–0.8073, with an opening price at 0.8052 and a 52‑week range 0.7829–0.9202. [7]
Takeaway: Price action is calm and boxed inside the 0.80–0.81 band as broader dollar moves pause and CHF retains a low‑inflation, low‑rate premium. [8]
What’s Moving USD/CHF Today
- U.S. headlines: The dollar was broadly steady early Monday with majors trading in tight ranges as investors weighed signs that a U.S. government funding deal could progress in the Senate. Reuters noted USD/CHF near 0.806 and ~60% odds of a December Fed cut, keeping the greenback capped. [9]
- Spot color: FXStreet reports USD/CHF wobbling around 0.8060 as the funding measure advances. [10]
- Risk mood & yields: Equities firmed on shutdown‑deal optimism while U.S. 10‑year yields edged up around 4.13%, a modest dollar tailwind that hasn’t broken USD/CHF out of its range. [11]
The Swiss Side: Rates, Inflation & Policy Stance
- Policy rate: At its 25 September assessment, the SNB kept the policy rate at 0% and reiterated it remains willing to be active in the foreign‑exchange market if necessary. That keeps the policy backdrop CHF‑supportive without telegraphing immediate moves. [12]
- Inflation: The Federal Statistical Office said October CPI fell 0.3% MoM and slowed to 0.1% YoY, undershooting consensus and underscoring Switzerland’s very low inflation environment. [13]
Implication: With inflation near the bottom of the SNB’s 0–2% range, there’s little domestic pressure to tighten; equally, ultra‑low inflation leaves the SNB comfortable with a steady‑hand stance unless CHF strength turns disorderly. [14]
The U.S. Side: Fed Path & This Week’s Catalyst
- Recent move: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on 30 Oct, citing a softening job market and data gaps amid the shutdown. That move lowered the policy range and keeps attention on incoming inflation prints. [15]
- What’s next: The next big USD catalyst is CPI on Thursday, 13 Nov (per FRED/BLS release schedule). A surprise could quickly reset December cut odds and push USD/CHF out of its coil. [16]
- Today’s calendar hints: Light U.S. data today (auctions and Fed speak) argue for range trading into CPI unless headline risk on the funding bill breaks. [17]
USD/CHF Technical & Trading Picture (No‑Chart)
Structure: Sideways bias inside 0.8000–0.8100 since late last week, with repeated failure to sustain above the 0.8100 round number and shallow dips bought near 0.8040–0.8050. [18]
Key levels
- Resistance: 0.8100, then 0.8120/0.8150 (round‑number friction and recent summer pivot area).
- Support: 0.8050/0.8040 (intraday floor), then 0.8000 and 0.7960 (psychological/last month’s congestion). [19]
Momentum view (qualitative): With spot hugging the middle of the band and macro catalysts ahead, fade extremes remains attractive intraday; sustained closes above 0.8100 would expose 0.8150, while a daily close below 0.8000 would re‑invite 0.7950s.
Today’s News Flow At A Glance (10.11.2025)
- Dollar steady; shutdown‑deal hopes: majors in tight ranges; USD/CHF ~0.806; December cut odds ~60%. [20]
- USD/CHF intraday tone: “wobbles around 0.8060” as the Senate advances a funding measure. [21]
- Risk tone & yields: global stocks firmer; U.S. 10‑year ~4.13%. [22]
- Official CHF readings:USD/CHF 0.8059 on the SNB data portal for 10.11.2025. [23]
24–48 Hour Outlook & Levels To Watch
Base case (neutral/range):
- Hold 0.8000–0.8120 into Thursday’s U.S. CPI; whipsaws likely on any hard headlines around Capitol Hill funding. [24]
Bullish USD/CHF case (breakout higher):
- A decisive daily close above 0.8100 (on rising yields or a hawkish CPI surprise) would open 0.8150 next. [25]
Bearish USD/CHF case (breakdown):
- A sustained move below 0.8000 (risk‑off or soft CPI) points to 0.7960 first support. [26]
Medium‑Term View (into late November)
- Macro spread: With the Fed easing and the SNB on hold at 0% while Swiss inflation runs at 0.1% YoY, relative policy is less of a headwind for CHF than in prior cycles; this favors range‑to‑slightly‑lower USD/CHF unless U.S. data re‑accelerate. [27]
- Event risk: The SNB’s December decision (widely expected to stay on hold) and any renewed global risk aversion—where CHF’s safe‑haven bid typically strengthens—are the main swing factors. [28]
Directional bias:Neutral to mildly bearish USD/CHF into the U.S. CPI print; 0.7950–0.8150 likely bounds unless data decisively shift Fed expectations. [29]
Practical Trading Notes (Not Financial Advice)
- Respect 0.8100 as first resistance; fades have worked while shutdown headlines drip‑feed and before CPI. [30]
- Watch Treasury yields and front‑end Fed‑cut odds—they’re dictating whether the 0.80–0.81 coil resolves higher or lower. [31]
Sources
Live pricing, ranges and facts cited from: Reuters USDCHF=X real‑time quote; SNB data portal; Investing.com USD/CHF page; Reuters FX wrap (Nov 10); FXStreet intraday update (Nov 10); Swiss FSO CPI release (Oct data); Fed Oct 30 rate‑cut report (Reuters); FRED/BLS release schedule for CPI (Nov 13); Investing.com market wrap on yields & risk. [32]
Disclosure: This article is for information and commentary only and is not investment advice. FX and derivatives trading involves risk.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.snb.ch, 4. fred.stlouisfed.org, 5. www.snb.ch, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.fxstreet.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.snb.ch, 13. www.bfs.admin.ch, 14. www.snb.ch, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. fred.stlouisfed.org, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.fxstreet.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.snb.ch, 24. fred.stlouisfed.org, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. fred.stlouisfed.org, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.reuters.com
