Date: Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Wall Street is leaning risk‑on in the pre‑market as investors eye a House vote that could end the record 42‑day federal shutdown and reopen key government data pipelines. Futures for the major indexes are higher, with the tone helped by resilient big‑cap earnings and fresh AI headlines. A packed macro slate—Fed speakers, energy reports and Thursday’s CPI—keeps the tape sensitive to headlines. 1
The quick read
- Futures: Green across the board as traders bet Congress will pass a funding deal and the White House will sign it, ending the longest shutdown on record. 1
- Washington: The Senate cleared a 79–20 bill; House leaders plan a Wednesday vote after seven weeks away, positioning government to reopen through Jan. 30 if the measure reaches the President’s desk. 2
- Rates & dollar: The 10‑year Treasury yield is hovering near ~4.09% in early trade; rate‑cut odds for December remain elevated. 3
- Commodities: Oil is little changed after Tuesday’s bounce as traders watch the shutdown vote and OPEC’s monthly report. Gold is steady as markets price a two‑thirds chance of a December Fed cut. 4
- Crypto: Bitcoin oscillates near the $103k–$105k area amid broader risk appetite and a pickup in realized volatility. 5
- Corporate: AMD pops in pre‑market on long‑term AI guidance; Nvidia sentiment is mixed after SoftBank’s stake sale; CoreWeave trims its outlook on a data‑center delay. 1
- Earnings: Before the bell—TransDigm (TDG), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Tencent Music (TME), On Holding (ONON) and more. After the close—Cisco (CSCO). Disney (DIS) reports Thursday morning. 6
Market setup: “reopening trade” meets AI cross‑currents
Futures are firmer as the “reopening trade” takes shape: the House is expected to vote on a bipartisan bill already approved by the Senate, with the President likely to sign it and restore normal government operations through Jan. 30. That would end a 42‑day freeze that forced investors and the Fed to lean heavily on private data instead of the usual federal releases. The tone follows Tuesday’s session that saw the Dow close at a record high, even as tech lagged. 1
AI remains the swing factor. Advanced Micro Devices is up pre‑market after guiding to $100B in data‑center chip revenue within five years, a shot of confidence for AI infrastructure demand. Offsetting that, SoftBank’s $5.8B Nvidia stake sale stoked bubble chatter, and CoreWeave cut its full‑year revenue outlook due to a third‑party data‑center delay—two reminders that execution and valuation risk still shadow the space. 1
Rates, commodities, and crypto
- Bonds: The U.S. 10‑year yield is near 4.09% early Wednesday, a touch below recent highs. Markets still price a ~67% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in December, according to FedWatch references cited in Wednesday’s gold coverage. 3
- Oil: Brent trades around the mid‑$60s and WTI near the low‑$60s, essentially flat after Tuesday’s gains; a government reopening could support demand into the holiday travel season. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report also lands today. 4
- Gold: Little changed as traders balance a softer dollar with rate‑cut odds into year‑end. 7
- Bitcoin: BTC is consolidating near $103k–$105k with volatility indicators perking up after a quieter stretch. 5
Earnings to watch today
Before the bell: TransDigm (TDG), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Tencent Music (TME), On Holding (ONON), ICL Group (ICL), Loar (LOAR), Hudbay (HBM), Legend Biotech (LEGN), Enlight (ENLT), IHS Holding (IHS), Arcos Dorados (ARCO), CorMedix (CRMD). TME already reported stronger‑than‑expected results, lifting the ADRs in pre‑market trade. 6
After the close:Cisco (CSCO) headlines; management hosts its call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Disney (DIS) reports Thursday before the open. 8
Washington watch: Shutdown endgame and data backlog
The Senate passed a bill to reopen the government; House leaders put a vote on the calendar after members returned from a seven‑week recess. A signature would unlock a backlog of official data into year‑end and reduce the “data fog” that has complicated Fed and market analysis for weeks. 2
Economic calendar: CPI Thursday, energy data today
- CPI (Oct) arrives Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET; PPI (Oct) is scheduled for Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET. These releases are on the official BLS calendar. 9
- MBA Mortgage Applications: weekly update due 7:00 a.m. ET. 10
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: published today. 11
- API U.S. crude inventories: after the close. 12
Fed speakers (all times ET):
- Christopher Waller (Philadelphia Fed Fintech Conference, ~10:20 a.m.). 13
- Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Economics Club, 12:15 p.m.). 14
- Stephen Miran (Fireside chat, 12:30 p.m.). 13
Stocks on the move before the bell
- AMD (up): Long‑term AI revenue target energizes semis. 1
- BILL Holdings (up): Reported to be exploring a sale; stock jumps on deal chatter. 15
- Nvidia (mixed): Overhang from SoftBank’s $5.8B stake sale; eyes on Nov. 19 results. 16
- CoreWeave (down): Lowers FY revenue guide on data‑center delay, pressuring data‑center ecosystem names. 17
- Energy: Chevron outlines a path to ~10% annual cash‑flow growth through 2030; oil majors remain sensitive to OPEC’s report. 18
- Tencent Music: Beats expectations; ADRs tick higher pre‑market. 19
What to watch at the open
- Shutdown vote headlines: Passage and signing details matter for the timing of delayed data and federal spending cadence into January. 20
- AI leadership vs. rotation: AMD momentum vs. supply‑chain hiccups and high‑multiple fatigue (SoftBank/Nvidia, CoreWeave). 1
- Rates path: A 10‑year near ~4.1% plus ~two‑thirds odds of a December cut is a supportive mix—until CPI says otherwise. 3
- Energy flows: OPEC’s report and tonight’s API inventories could tug at crude, airlines, refiners and transports. 11
- Tonight’s tech readout: Cisco’s orders/backlog, AI networking and Splunk integration color the enterprise IT demand picture ahead of mega‑cap earnings next week. 8
Looking ahead
- Thursday (Nov. 13): CPI, Disney earnings (pre‑market). 9
- Friday (Nov. 14): PPI, Retail Sales, and more Fed commentary—a dense test of the “soft‑landing with easing” narrative. 21
Bottom line
Bulls have the ball pre‑market as Washington nears a shutdown off‑ramp and AI optimism steadies. The next decisive swing likely comes from Thursday’s CPI and a heavy slate of Fed talk. Keep an eye on Treasury yields, AI leaders/laggards, and energy—that trio will set the tone into the close. 1
Notes & sources: Reuters pre‑market wrap and shutdown coverage; Washington Post congressional schedule; BLS calendars for CPI/PPI; MarketWatch and FRED for yields; Reuters oil & gold; OPEC schedule; Nasdaq earnings calendar; company investor pages; and wire reports on AMD, Nvidia/SoftBank and CoreWeave. 1
