Updated Nov 15, 2025 — Suitable for Google News & Discover
Key takeaways
- Share price: Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) last closed at $26.02 on Nov. 14, leaving the stock ~17% below its 52‑week high of $32.80 set in September. 1
- Q3 scoreboard: Record results and a third consecutive full‑year 2025 guidance raise, with the company now targeting adjusted EPS of ~$2.14 and adjusted EBITDA of ~$7.05B. Q4 EPS is guided to ~$0.23. 2
- Balance sheet: Debt reduction and refinancings continue; $1.25B of 5.125% senior unsecured notes closed in October to replace higher‑cost debt, adding rate relief into 2026. 3
- Street view: November brought a Goldman Sachs target trim to $34 (Buy) as the firm rebalanced cruise sector assumptions; the consensus 12‑month target is near $33. 4
- Demand backdrop: U.S. cruising is still expanding; AAA projects 21.7 million Americans will cruise in 2026, up 4.5% from 2025. 5
What changed for CCL in November 2025
1) Price targets adjusted, tone stays constructive.
Goldman Sachs lowered its CCL price target to $34 from $37 this week while maintaining a Buy rating, citing a choppier Caribbean pricing setup but calling Carnival the most resilient among the large caps. 4
2) Short‑interest update.
As of the Oct. 31 settlement (reported in mid‑November), short interest stood at ~50.1M shares (≈4.6% of float), with ~2–3 days to cover—elevated but not extreme for a consumer‑cyclical name. 6
3) Seasonal promotions and destination pipeline.
Carnival brands are leaning into year‑end promotions (e.g., Princess “Blue Friday” sale) to capture close‑in demand, while the group keeps building its private‑destination moat: Princess Cruises will begin calls to Celebration Key—Carnival’s new Bahamas destination—starting Nov. 1, 2026. These touch demand, pricing power, and onboard revenue into 2026. 7
4) Sector read‑through.
Peers’ late‑October/early‑November prints (Royal Caribbean and Norwegian) showed strong demand but softer near‑term margin guidance, which pressured cruise equities—useful context for CCL’s November drift below September highs. 8
5) News risk to watch.
Authorities are investigating a passenger death aboard Carnival Horizon; while not financially material on its own, such headlines can create short‑term sentiment headwinds. 9
Where fundamentals stand heading into Q4
Carnival delivered record fiscal Q3 results (quarter ended Aug. 31) and raised guidance for the third time this year:
- Adjusted EPS: ~$2.14 for FY25; ~$0.23 for Q4.
- Adjusted EBITDA: ~$7.05B for FY25.
- Net yields (constant currency): +5.3% for FY25; +4.3% for Q4 vs. record 2024.
- Cost discipline: Adjusted cruise costs ex‑fuel/ALBD +3.3% YoY (FY25).
- Fuel & sensitivity: FY25 fuel cost/ton guided at ~$615; a 10% move in Q4 fuel costs swings adjusted net income by ~$42M, underscoring fuel volatility as a key lever. 2
Bookings remain the flywheel. Management says nearly half of 2026 capacity is already booked, in line with 2025’s record levels, but at historically high prices, and early 2027 bookings set a new volume record in Q3. That supports a multi‑year yield and margin narrative if macro conditions cooperate. 2
Balance‑sheet trajectory is improving. As of Aug. 31, total debt was ~$26.5B, with net debt/adjusted EBITDA at ~3.6× (down from 4.7× a year earlier). The company is redeeming convertibles and has targeted <3× leverage over the near term; S&P also revised its outlook to Positive in late September, reflecting deleveraging momentum. October’s $1.25B 5.125% unsecured notes further reduce interest expense by replacing 6% paper due 2029. 2
The stock: where we are now
- Last close:$26.02 (Nov. 14). 1
- Distance from high: ~–17% vs. the $32.80 52‑week peak on Sept. 11. 10
- Street consensus: Average 12‑month target ~$33 (range generally low‑$20s to ~$40) and a broadly Bullish stance across coverage. 11
12‑month CCL forecast: three scenarios
These are illustrative ranges grounded in Carnival’s FY25 guidance, current interest‑cost trajectory, and Street targets—not investment advice.
Base case (most likely): $30–$34
- Assumes FY25 adjusted EPS ~$2.14 (company guidance) and flattish‑to‑modest yield gains into FY26 amid steady demand and ongoing interest‑expense relief.
- Applying a 14–16× P/E to the FY25 earnings run‑rate supports $30–$34, aligning with November’s consensus near $33. 2
Bull case: $36–$40
- Upside path requires (a) firm 2026 pricing/yields as private‑destination capacity (e.g., Celebration Key) scales, (b) further refinancing or upgrades that compress interest costs, and (c) benign fuel.
- A 17–18× multiple on a modestly higher earnings base (via mix and cost tailwinds) maps to the high‑$30s, which matches the upper band of current analyst targets. 12
Bear case: $22–$26
- Downside stems from a softer Caribbean pricing environment post‑peak, fuel/tariff shocks, or macro pullback in discretionary travel.
- A de‑risked 10–12× multiple on FY25 earnings implies low‑ to mid‑$20s—roughly where shares consolidated after sector wobbles around peer results. 8
Catalysts and risks to watch next
Near‑term events
- Q4 & full‑year report (company’s FY25 results): currently expected around Dec. 19, 2025 on market calendars. Watch for 2026 commentary on yields, capex, and leverage. 13
- Wave season (Dec–Feb) bookings and promo cadence (e.g., Blue Friday) as an early read on 2026 pricing power. 7
Structural drivers
- Demand tailwinds: AAA projects another record year in 2026 (+4.5% YoY U.S. ocean cruisers), supporting occupancy and pricing confidence across the sector. 5
- Private‑destination moat: As more brands add Celebration Key calls from 2026, onboard and shore‑ex spend uplift can widen yield differentials versus land‑based alternatives. 12
- Deleveraging: Continued refinancings at lower coupons and shrinking secured “towers” remain an equity rerating lever through 2026. 3
Watch‑outs
- Fuel & FX: Management’s own sensitivity shows how fuel and FX can still swing quarterly earnings. 2
- Sector read‑through: Peer reports in late October/early November underscored cost inflation and quarter‑to‑quarter variability even amid strong demand. 14
- Headline risk: Isolated incidents (e.g., the Horizon investigation) can affect near‑term sentiment despite limited P&L impact. 9
Bottom line
Carnival heads into year‑end with record profitability, raised guidance, healthier leverage, and solid forward bookings. November’s modest derating in cruise equities—and the $34 Goldman target—reflects tighter near‑term assumptions rather than a broken demand story. With consensus targets still clustered around the low‑$30s, our base‑case range of $30–$34 looks reasonable into the next 12 months, with execution on yields and deleveraging as the twin rerating levers, and fuel/macro as the swing factors. 4
Sources
- Price/52‑week data: Yahoo Finance historicals; MarketWatch daily wrap. 1
- Company fundamentals/guidance: Carnival Q3 FY2025 press release (Form 8‑K). 2
- Refinancing: LSE announcement of $1.25B 5.125% senior unsecured notes (Oct. 15, 2025). 3
- Street/consensus: Goldman Sachs target cut (Nov. 11, 2025); MarketBeat consensus targets. 4
- Industry demand: AAA 2026 U.S. cruise forecast. 5
- Peer context: Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Q3 commentary and market reactions. 8
- News risk: AP report on Horizon incident. 9
Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.
