Target (TGT) Stock Today: Holiday Discounts, AI Shopping Push and Dividend Power Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) heads into Thanksgiving week with its stock down sharply for the year, a dividend yield near 5%, and a high‑stakes holiday strategy built around deep price cuts, AI‑powered shopping tools and a major corporate restructuring. ^[1]

Key takeaways for November 16, 2025

Stock under pressure: TGT closed at about $89.96 on Friday, November 14, down ~41% over the past 12 months and ~33% year‑to‑date. ^[2]
Dividend still a draw: Target pays an annual dividend of $4.56 per share (quarterly $1.14), implying a yield just above 5% and more than five decades of dividend growth. ^[3]
Big money buying on weakness: New 13F filings show Empower Advisory Group LLC increased its Target stake by ~78% in Q2, to about 647,000 shares (~$63.9 million). ^[4]
Q3 2025 earnings this week: Target reports on Wednesday, November 19, with consensus expecting EPS around $1.77, down year‑over‑year, and investors laser‑focused on holiday guidance. ^[5]
Holiday 2025 strategy in full swing: Target is cutting prices on 3,000+ everyday items, offering a Thanksgiving meal for four under $20, rolling out AI‑powered app features, and promoting an immersive “Holiday Squad” in‑store experience. ^[6]

Stock & dividend snapshot: a bruised Dividend King

Share price and performance

MarketBeat data show Target shares closed Friday at $89.96, with: ^[7]

5‑day performance: –1.9%
3‑month performance: –12.65%
Year‑to‑date: –33.45%
1‑year: –40.88%

That leaves Target trading at a steep discount to its 2021 all‑time high above $235 and roughly in line with where some valuation models peg “fair value” near $100–$110 per share. ^[8]

Dividend profile

On September 17, Target’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.14 per share, payable December 1, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 12. This marks the company’s 233rd consecutive dividend since 1967. ^[9]

According to StockAnalysis and related trackers: ^[10]

Annual dividend: $4.56 per share
Dividend yield: ~5.0–5.1% at current prices
Payout ratio: ~53% of earnings
Dividend growth streak: more than 50 consecutive years, placing Target among widely recognized “Dividend Kings.”

A new article today from The Motley Fool (syndicated via Nasdaq and AOL) highlights that Target’s yield is near the very top of its historical range, and that historically, buying when the yield approached 5% has been rewarded over multi‑year periods—while also stressing the current business headwinds. ^[11]

Today’s TGT news round‑up (November 16, 2025)

1. Empower Advisory Group ramps up its TGT stake

A fresh MarketBeat analysis published today shows Empower Advisory Group LLC boosted its Target holdings by 78.2% in Q2. The firm now owns about 647,497 TGT shares, worth roughly $63.9 million, equating to about 0.14% of the company. ^[12]

The same filing‑based report notes:

Several other hedge funds and RIAs also added modestly to positions.
Overall institutional ownership in Target is just under 80% of shares outstanding. ^[13]

Separately, a Fintel/Nasdaq note on Friday highlighted that Telsey Advisory Group maintained its Market Perform rating on TGT with an average 12‑month price target around $105.20, implying ~17% upside from Friday’s close. ^[14]

2. Fresh analysis: Is Target’s 5% yield a buy signal?

Today’s Motley Fool piece—circulating via Finviz, Nasdaq and AOL—frames Target as a high‑yield Dividend King whose stock is down roughly two‑thirds from its all‑time high and trading at under 11x earnings, near the low end of its 10‑year valuation range. ^[15]

Key points from that analysis:

Target has raised its dividend for more than five decades, a rare feat even among large‑cap stocks. ^[16]
Today’s yield near 5% has only been seen a handful of times in Target’s history. ^[17]
However, sluggish sales, modest margin compression and higher interest expense have pressured earnings, which helps explain the depressed valuation. ^[18]

The conclusion: history supports buying Target when the yield is this high—but that assumes the underlying business stabilizes and the dividend remains safe.

3. Q3 2025 earnings are the big event this week

Multiple outlets—including Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha—flag Target as one of the key retailers reporting earnings in the coming days, alongside Nvidia, Home Depot, Lowe’s, TJX and Walmart. ^[19]

From the latest previews:

Target’s Q3 2025 earnings call is scheduled for Wednesday, November 19, 8:00–9:00 a.m. EST, per the company’s investor relations site. ^[20]
Zacks/Yahoo’s earnings preview expects EPS of about $1.77, representing a year‑over‑year decline of roughly 4%, as weak discretionary demand and tariffs weigh on results. ^[21]
Investors will focus on holiday guidance, trends in comparable sales (comps have been negative or weak for 11 straight quarters), and any updated commentary on tariffs and restructuring. ^[22]

With the stock already down more than a third this year, the earnings print and holiday commentary could be a major catalyst—up or down.

4. Holiday deals flood: weekly ad, LEGO sale, Black Friday “Week 3”

On the consumer side, November 16 brings a wave of deal‑oriented coverage as Target’s 11/16–11/22 weekly ad and pre‑Black‑Friday offers go live: ^[23]

Weekly ad (11/16–11/22): Coupon and flyer sites are now hosting the full circular, highlighting discounts across toys, electronics, groceries, décor and more.
Black Friday Week 3: 9to5Toys reports that Target’s third wave of Black Friday‑style deals is live, including up to 50% off holiday décor, trees and lighting, as well as markdowns on small appliances and gaming. ^[24]
LEGO promotion: Specialty blog Toys N Bricks notes a 20% off sale on 82 LEGO sets from November 16–22, stackable with existing discounts on some sets. ^[25]
Deal roundups: Sites like Hip2Save and Weekly Ad List are pushing curated lists of the best Circle offers, clearance finds and “doorbuster‑style” promos starting today. ^[26]

This consumer‑side buzz reinforces Target’s aggressive promotional posture as it competes with Walmart, Amazon and dollar stores for inflation‑weary shoppers.

5. A pop‑culture and in‑store experience play

A Star Tribune feature today spotlights Target’s role as a go‑to retail partner for pop‑culture franchises—most recently the surprise Netflix hit “KPop Demon Hunters”—and how its internal “fan merchandising” team helps the chain quickly translate streaming phenomena into collectibles and in‑store displays. ^[27]

At the same time, Target’s own corporate article on this year’s holiday store experience describes: ^[28]

A whimsical “Holiday Squad” of mascots (Get‑Ready Yeti, Buttons the Gingerbread and The Gifting Mice) featured in décor and marketing.
An “Alpine Village” front‑of‑store setup, weekend events with giveaways, photo ops, and a “Hot Cocoa Club” activation in some flagships.
Emphasis on exclusive brands, curated toy zones (“Toys Express”), and sensory touches like signature holiday scents in many stores.

Business Insider’s photo tour this week underscores that Target is betting heavily on nostalgia, in‑store events and app‑driven navigation—including a gamified “Find Bullseye” hunt—to stand out in a crowded holiday landscape. ^[29]

Context: restructuring, price cuts and AI — the bigger 2025 story

While today’s headlines focus on dividends, deals and upcoming earnings, they sit on top of several major 2025 developments that still matter for investors.

Corporate layoffs and leadership transition

On October 23, Target announced its first major corporate layoff in roughly a decade, cutting around 1,800 corporate roles—about 8% of its office workforce—as part of a turnaround plan. ^[30]

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke, currently COO and a 20‑year company veteran, framed the cuts as necessary to simplify decision‑making and speed execution. ^[31]
The reductions are concentrated in headquarters and corporate roles rather than stores or supply chain. ^[32]
The move follows 11 consecutive quarters of weak or negative comps and persistent pressure from tariffs on imported goods. ^[33]

Third‑party analyses this month argue that successful execution of these cuts—without damaging store operations or morale—will be critical to rebuilding profitability. TechStock²+1

Deep price cuts & food security commitments

On November 11, Target said it would slash prices on more than 3,000 everyday items—from food and beverages to household essentials—through the holiday season to win back price‑sensitive shoppers. ^[34]

In a related press release, the company also announced: ^[35]

A $500,000 donation to Feeding America, expected to fund about 5 million meals.
Total 2025 food security contributions on track to exceed $2.5 million in grants and 150 million pounds of food, as part of about $400 million in products and cash Target plans to provide to nonprofits this year.

In the Thanksgiving niche specifically, Reuters reports that Target’s seven‑item meal kit for four is priced under $20, with more private‑label substitutions compared to last year to keep the basket affordable. ^[36]

Today’s broader coverage of Thanksgiving shopping trends also notes that Target, like many chains, will keep all stores closed on Thanksgiving Day (November 27), pushing shoppers to online channels and Black Friday proper. ^[37]

AI‑powered app features and omnichannel push

On November 12, Target detailed new AI‑driven shopping tools designed to link its stores and app more tightly: ^[38]

Target Gift Finder: a conversational AI experience that recommends products based on a short description of the recipient or occasion.
List Scanner: lets guests upload a handwritten list and convert it into a digital Target shopping list and cart.
Enhanced Store Mode: automatically activates in‑store, mapping aisles, suggesting fulfillment alternatives if an item is out of stock, and embedding interactive experiences like “Find Bullseye.”

Target says baskets are nearly 50% larger when guests use the app in‑store, underlining why it is investing heavily in mobile‑assisted shopping. ^[39]

These tech investments are designed to offset the margin drag from heavy price promotions by lifting basket size, cross‑selling higher‑margin categories and growing advertising and data‑driven revenue streams.

How Wall Street is reading Target right now

Across recent research summaries: ^[40]

The average 12‑month price target for TGT sits around $105–$108 per share, implying mid‑teens percentage upside from current levels.
Ratings are mixed, clustering around “Hold” or “Market Perform,” with a spread of bullish and bearish outliers.
Models generally assume low single‑digit revenue growth over the next few years and EPS in the $8–$9+ range, leaving the stock on roughly 10–12x forward earnings.
The dividend is widely seen as well‑covered for now, with a payout ratio just above 50% and management still raising the payout modestly each year.

In short: the market recognizes Target as a beaten‑up, income‑oriented retailer with real brand and scale advantages—but one that still has to prove its new playbook can overcome tariffs, fierce competition and recent missteps.

What to watch heading into earnings

As Target reports Q3 2025 and updates investors later this week, expect markets to focus on:

Comparable sales (comps): Are declines bottoming out, or is discretionary demand still deteriorating?
Gross and operating margins: How much are tariffs and holiday price cuts eroding profitability, and are corporate cost saves starting to show up? ^[41]
Holiday commentary: Early read‑through on traffic, online vs. in‑store mix, and guest response to the AI tools and in‑store “Alpine Village” experience. ^[42]
Restructuring charges and savings: Any quantified timelines or dollar targets tied to the 1,800 corporate role reductions. ^[43]
Dividend and capital allocation: While a cut seems unlikely in the near term, investors will listen for reassurances given the high yield and earnings pressure. ^[44]

Investor takeaway (not financial advice)

For long‑term, dividend‑focused investors, today’s picture is nuanced:

Bullish side:
- High, historically elevated dividend yield with decades of growth behind it. ^[45]
- Valuation near decade lows on earnings multiples and far off prior price peaks. ^[46]
- Tangible strategic moves in tech, in‑store experience and cost structure. ^[47]
Bearish side:
- Ongoing comp weakness and margin pressure from tariffs and heavy promotions. ^[48]
- Execution risk as a new CEO steps in while 1,800 corporate roles are cut. ^[49]
- A fiercely competitive landscape in big‑box retail, with Walmart, Costco, Amazon and dollar chains all vying for value‑oriented shoppers. ^[50]

Whether TGT is an attractive opportunity will depend on your risk tolerance, time horizon and view on Target’s ability to stabilize comps and protect margins. Nothing here is investment advice; it’s a synthesis of today’s public information to help you frame your own research or talk with a professional advisor.

Understand Dividend Yield to get VERY RICH