As AI’s bellwether heads into earnings week, here’s the concise, fact-checked pre‑market playbook for NVDA.
1) Where NVDA stands after Friday’s close
Nvidia shares closed Friday, Nov. 14, at $190.17 after a volatile tech session that reversed higher into the close. Markets finished mixed, with investors explicitly “looking ahead to Nvidia’s quarterly results next week.” 1
2) The next hard catalyst: earnings on Wednesday, Nov. 19 (after the bell)
Nvidia’s Q3 FY26 results arrive Nov. 19 at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET). As usual, the company will post written CFO commentary shortly after the press release (about 1:20 p.m. PT) before the call begins. Bookmark the investor relations page if you plan to read the commentary as it drops. 2
3) What Wall Street expects right now
Consensus (LSEG): revenue about $54.8B and a ~53.8% YoY rise in EPS for the fiscal Q3 just ended (Oct. 26). This report is widely viewed as one of the year’s last major market catalysts. 3
4) What Nvidia guided last quarter
Back in August, Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to ~$54B (±2%), driven by continued AI accelerator demand. That guidance set the bar the Street is measuring against this week. 4
5) Context: momentum coming into Q3
For Q2 FY26, Nvidia posted $46.7B in revenue (+56% YoY), with data center sales at $41.1B and Blackwell data‑center revenue up 17% sequentially, underscoring why investors are focused on the Blackwell ramp and 2026 visibility. 5
6) Policy and geopolitics to watch in pre‑market chatter
- US export policy pressure: Amazon and Microsoft have thrown support behind the GAIN AI Act, a proposal that would prioritize domestic AI‑chip demand and further restrict exports to China—a rare public policy rift with one of their key suppliers. 6
- China state projects: New guidance in China bars foreign AI chips in state‑funded data centers, a headwind for any long‑term China re‑entry hopes. 7
- Management stance: CEO Jensen Huang recently said there are “no active discussions” about selling Blackwell into China, aligning with the tighter policy backdrop. 8
7) Product ramp & ecosystem signals
- Nvidia says demand for Blackwell remains “very strong,” and it continues to build out the software and networking stack that underpins AI factories. 9
- Fresh from Nvidia’s developer blog: multi‑node NVLink on Kubernetes—another sign of the company’s focus on full‑stack orchestration around GB200 NVL72‑class systems. 10
8) It’s SC25 week (Supercomputing 2025): expect headlines
The SC25 high‑performance computing conference runs Nov. 16–21 in St. Louis. Nvidia is on the floor with demos and sessions, and partners (clouds, OEMs, labs) often time announcements here. Any Monday morning releases tied to SC25 could sway NVDA in pre‑market. 11
9) Supply chain watch: HBM and packaging
- HBM supply: Samsung said it’s in key collaboration with Nvidia on HBM3E and HBM4, while SK hynix has completed internal certification for HBM4 and is prepping production—critical as AI models consume ever more memory bandwidth. 12
- Advanced packaging: Nvidia previously highlighted that advanced packaging capacity has expanded dramatically versus two years ago, though it remains a gating factor industry‑wide. 13
10) Options market set‑up into the print
Implied volatility is elevated. Current options boards point to an expected move of roughly 6–8% around earnings, according to third‑party trackers (ranges vary by source and tenor). Traders often reassess these ranges on Monday morning as liquidity returns. 14
11) Macro calendar before the bell
At 8:30 a.m. ET Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index hits, part of a data‑heavy week as agencies clear shutdown‑related backlogs. Fed‑sensitive prints could influence index futures and, by extension, high‑beta tech at the open. 15
12) One more framing data point
Nvidia has flirted with a $5 trillion market value in recent weeks, magnifying the read‑through from its guidance to broader tech and AI sentiment. That’s why Wednesday’s numbers—and any SC25‑adjacent news—matter for indexes as much as for NVDA. 16
Pre‑Market Cheat Sheet (Nov. 17, 2025)
- Last close (Fri):$190.17. 1
- Earnings:Wed, Nov. 19, after market; written CFO commentary ~1:20 p.m. PT; call at 2:00 p.m. PT. 17
- Street view:~$54.8B revenue; EPS up ~54% YoY (LSEG). 3
- Key risk: Export policy—GAIN AI Act momentum; China state‑project chip ban. 6
- Key opportunity:Blackwell ramp + ecosystem (software, networking), with SC25 newsflow possible this week. 9
- Options tone: Implied move into earnings ~6–8%. 14
- Macro before open:Empire State Manufacturing (8:30 a.m. ET). 15
What to Listen For on Wednesday’s Call
- Blackwell supply & lead times (incl. HBM mix and any color on 2026 ramps). 12
- China exposure assumptions and any commentary on the GAIN AI Act and state‑project bans. 6
- Data center demand by cohort (hyperscalers, enterprise, sovereign AI) and software attach. 5
- Full‑stack roadmap (networking/NVLink, orchestration, inference economics) and any SC25‑linked product updates. 10
Bottom line
NVDA enters Monday as the market’s pivotal earnings story of the week. The setup is straightforward: consensus and prior guidance are tightly aligned around ~$54–55B for Q3, options are pricing a meaningful move, and the policy backdrop is noisier than usual. Watch for any SC25 headlines before/after the bell, but the main event remains Wednesday’s print and guidance—with outsize implications for AI sentiment and the broader tape. 3
This article is for information purposes only and is not investment advice.
