Morgan Stanley Today, 18 November 2025: India ‘Regains Mojo’, S&P 500 Target 7,800 and Fresh Analyst Calls

On a busy day for global markets, Morgan Stanley sharpened its bullish 2026 outlook, doubled down on India, moved key stock ratings, and filed fresh regulatory disclosures.

Published: November 18, 2025
By: TechStock²

Morgan Stanley is back at the centre of the global market conversation today, 18 November 2025, as its strategists lay out an aggressively pro‑equity roadmap for 2026, with India and the United States in starring roles.

The Wall Street bank now sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,800 by the end of 2026 and expects Indian equities to “regain their mojo” with a bull‑case Sensex target of 107,000. ^[1]

All of this comes against the backdrop of a strong third quarter: Morgan Stanley reported net revenues of $18.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.80 for Q3 2025, comfortably ahead of the prior year and analyst estimates. ^[2] The stock most recently closed around $159–160, implying a market cap of roughly $250+ billion and a price‑to‑earnings multiple near 16x, with a dividend yield just above 2.5%. ^[3]

Below is a breakdown of what changed today — and what it may mean for investors, companies, and anyone watching global markets through Morgan Stanley’s lens.

India in Focus: Sensex Bull Case at 107,000 and a “Multi‑Year Rebound”

The biggest headline tied to Morgan Stanley today is its upgraded India equity outlook, which has quickly ricocheted across Indian financial media.

From worst EM laggard to potential leader

Morgan Stanley notes that India is ending 2025 with its worst relative performance versus emerging markets since 1994, after a year of heavy foreign outflows and earnings downgrades. ^[4] But the bank argues that this underperformance has reset valuations and positioning in a way that sets up a powerful rebound.

In fresh strategy notes covered by Moneycontrol, The Economic Times, Business Standard and others, Morgan Stanley:

Projects a bull‑case Sensex level of 107,000 by December 2026, implying roughly 26–27% upside from current levels. ^[5]
Assigns a 30% probability to that bull case, assuming:
- Brent crude stays below about $65 a barrel
- Global trade tensions ease
- India sticks with reflationary, growth‑supportive policies
- Earnings compound close to 19% annually between FY25 and FY28 ^[6]
Sees a base case Sensex target of 95,000 by end‑2026 (about 13% upside), with 17–19% annual earnings growth supported by fiscal consolidation, private investment, and stable global growth. ^[7]
Flags a bear case in which the index could fall to around 76,000 if oil spikes above $100, monetary policy tightens more than expected, or external demand weakens sharply. ^[8]

The message: India has already paid the valuation price for a difficult year — and 2026 could be the payoff.

“Regaining its mojo” in 2026

Multiple outlets quoting Morgan Stanley’s India strategist Ridham Desai highlight a simple phrase: Indian equities are set to “regain their mojo” in 2026. ^[9]

Key pillars of that thesis include:

Ultra‑light foreign positioning
Foreign portfolio investors now hold about 17% of the market, slightly less than domestic institutions for the first time, which Morgan Stanley describes as the “lightest” foreign positioning in history. ^[10]
Normalized valuations and strong local flows
After underperforming peers for the first time in three decades, Indian equities now trade at more reasonable relative valuations, while domestic mutual funds and SIP flows remain structurally strong. ^[11]
A mid‑cycle earnings slowdown that’s already behind us
Morgan Stanley argues that policy has pivoted toward reflation, nominal GDP growth is improving, and the earnings cycle is exiting a mid‑cycle slowdown, setting the stage for mid‑to‑high‑teens EPS growth through FY28. ^[12]

Sector preferences: domestic cyclicals over defensives

In portfolio terms, Morgan Stanley’s India team is tilting toward:

Overweight: financials, consumer discretionary, industrials
Underweight: energy, materials, utilities, healthcare ^[13]

The bank expects India’s equity market to evolve from a stock‑picker’s playground in 2025 into a more macro‑driven “trade” in 2026, where broad sector and asset‑allocation decisions matter at least as much as individual names. ^[14]

Global Outlook: S&P 500 Target Hiked to 7,800, “Risk Assets Primed”

India isn’t the only market where Morgan Stanley turned up the optimism.

In a widely circulated Reuters report on its 2026 global strategy, the bank:

Raises its year‑end 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,800, around 16% above current levels. ^[15]
Prefers global equities to credit and government bonds, arguing that “risk assets are primed for a strong 2026” thanks to:
- accelerating AI‑related capital expenditures
- supportive fiscal and monetary policies
- easing inflation without a deep downturn in growth ^[16]
Expects U.S. stocks to outperform global peers, with small caps beating large caps and cyclical sectors doing better than defensives. ^[17]
Turns constructive on Europe, lifting its target for the MSCI Europe local‑currency index to 2,430, helped by spill‑over from a broader U.S. recovery despite domestic fiscal challenges. ^[18]

On the macro and commodities side, Morgan Stanley projects:

Moderate global growth with continued disinflation
A U.S. dollar that softens in early 2026 before rebounding later in the year
Gold around $4,500 an ounce, copper near $10,600 a ton, and Brent crude anchored close to $60 a barrel as part of a relatively benign commodity backdrop ^[19]

A companion “Thoughts on the Market” podcast from Morgan Stanley reinforces this view, flagging “slower growth and inflation” rather than a sharp recession as the base case for 2026. ^[20]

For global allocators, the signal is clear: this is a house that still believes in the equity story — particularly in the U.S. and India — even after a volatile 2025.

Big Stock Calls: Dell Downgraded, Eternal (Zomato) Upgraded, NICE Trimmed

Alongside its top‑down calls, Morgan Stanley’s analysts were busy on individual stocks that many investors hold or watch closely.

Dell: Rare double‑downgrade and a sharp sell‑off

On Monday, November 17, Morgan Stanley issued a rare double downgrade on Dell Technologies, cutting the rating from Overweight (essentially “Buy”) to Underweight (“Sell”) and slashing its price target from $144 to $110. ^[21]

The bank is concerned that:

surging DRAM and NAND memory prices
and a shift in Dell’s mix toward AI servers

could squeeze profit margins over the next 12–18 months. ^[22]

Dell’s shares fell around 7% to roughly $124 in Monday trading following the call and remained under pressure into today’s session. ^[23]

Eternal (formerly Zomato): Target raised despite profit hit

In India’s internet space, Morgan Stanley took the opposite tack on Eternal (the rebranded Zomato):

Target price raised to ₹427 per share, from a lower prior level,
With the stock trading near ₹309, the new target implies over 38% upside. ^[24]
The rating stays Overweight, with Morgan Stanley calling the recent 14–15% price correction an attractive entry point. ^[25]

Analysts acknowledge that Eternal’s latest quarterly profit was down about 63% year‑on‑year, but they highlight a 183% surge in revenue and continued market‑share gains. In Morgan Stanley’s view, that leaves a favourable risk‑reward profile even under stress scenarios. ^[26]

NICE Systems: Lower target, still bullish

Morgan Stanley also adjusted its view on NICE Systems (NICE), trimming its price target from $193 to $160 while maintaining an Overweight rating: ^[27]

The new target still represents meaningful upside from the current share price around $121, near the stock’s 52‑week low. ^[28]
The cut reflects concern that heavy AI and cloud‑related investments could pressure margins in the near term, even as the bank remains positive on the longer‑term shift toward cloud‑based customer‑experience platforms. ^[29]

Where Morgan Stanley is backing insider buying

Separately, a TipRanks analysis out today highlights two stocks where corporate insiders have been buying on weakness — and Morgan Stanley analysts are simultaneously positive: Blackstone and Cheniere Energy. ^[30]

For Blackstone, Morgan Stanley’s analyst points to improving real‑estate sentiment, diversified earnings, and a strong private‑wealth channel as reasons for an Overweight stance. ^[31]
For Cheniere, the bank cites its dominant position in U.S. LNG exports, stable cash flows backed by long‑term contracts, and the potential for rising free‑cash‑flow‑funded dividends and buybacks. ^[32]

These calls reinforce the broader pro‑risk message coming from the firm’s macro team.

Trading Book and Regulatory Filings: Avadel, Just Group and Early Redemptions

Beyond research notes, Morgan Stanley also popped up in a string of regulatory disclosures today.

Avadel Pharmaceuticals: Heavy two‑way trading

Under Irish Takeover Panel rules, Morgan Stanley disclosed significant trading activity in Avadel Pharmaceuticals(AVDL): ^[33]

On 17 November, the bank bought 669,861 shares at prices between $22.87 and $23.32,
And sold 745,857 shares in the same session, at $22.87–$23.33.

The disclosure notes that Morgan Stanley acted as an exempt principal trader and that the trades relate to a takeover situation involving Avadel, requiring detailed reporting.

Just Group PLC: Crossing the 6% ownership line

In London, a TR‑1 notification of major holdings shows that Morgan Stanley’s total voting rights in UK life and retirement specialist Just Group PLC have risen to 6.006126%, up from about 5.99% previously — a small move, but enough to cross the 6% threshold that triggers a fresh filing. ^[34]

The RNS filing lists Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, based in London, as the key controlled undertaking holding the shares, with total voting rights of 62,385,804. ^[35]

Structured products: early redemptions and new issuance

Morgan Stanley’s European structured‑product platform was also active:

An RNS on the London Stock Exchange details an early redemption of securities issued by Morgan Stanley Europe SE with ISIN XS3095046747, in a nominal amount of €500,000, with settlement set for 21 November 2025. ^[36]
MarketScreener data show this continues a pattern of regular early redemptions by Morgan Stanley Europe SE across various structured notes through 2025. ^[37]

At the same time, Morgan Stanley is issuing new structured notes:

A Euro Stoxx 50‑linked note with principal of $6 million and maturity in November 2030,
And an S&P 500‑linked note with an original issue amount of about $3.121 million, issued today, 18 November 2025, and maturing in 2030. ^[38]

Those filings underscore how the bank is continuously managing both sides of its structured‑product book — redeeming old instruments while bringing fresh exposure to market.

How It All Fits Together for Morgan Stanley Shareholders

For investors in Morgan Stanley itself, today’s flood of headlines can be boiled down into a few themes:

Risk‑on, but selective
The firm’s strategists are clearly leaning into risk assets for 2026 — particularly U.S. and Indian equities — but are also willing to challenge consensus favourites such as Dell when they see margin risks. ^[39]
India and AI as twin structural stories
India is positioned as a multi‑year growth story regaining momentum, while AI‑driven capital expenditure is described as a key force behind both the U.S. equity outlook and single‑stock calls in hardware, data centres and software. ^[40]
Robust core profitability
With Q3 2025 revenues of $18.2 billion, EPS of $2.80 and return on tangible common equity of 23.5%, Morgan Stanley is backing its views from a position of financial strength. ^[41]
Active capital‑markets and trading engine
From structured‑note redemptions and new issues to active trading in Avadel and incremental stakes in Just Group, today’s filings highlight the scale and diversity of the bank’s capital‑markets franchise. ^[42]

As always, none of these developments guarantee future performance — for Morgan Stanley, for the markets it covers, or for the stocks it rates. But for anyone tracking where one of Wall Street’s most influential houses sees opportunity and risk heading into 2026, 18 November 2025 delivered a very clear message:

Stay in equities, watch India and the U.S., respect AI‑driven structural shifts — and be prepared for some sharp stock‑specific moves along the way.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should do their own research or consult a qualified adviser before making investment decisions.

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