U.S. Factory Orders Rebound 1.4% as Industrial Production Data Goes Dark: Key Economic Events on November 18, 2025

On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, investors finally got a clearer read on U.S. manufacturing just as the broader economic data picture remained unusually murky.

Delayed factory orders for August showed a solid rebound, rising 1.4% month‑on‑month after a 1.3% drop in July, according to Census Bureau figures compiled by Investing.com. ^[1] At the same time, some of the releases that were supposed to headline today’s economic calendar — notably industrial production and U.S. import and export price indexes — never arrived, still disrupted by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. ^[2]

A steady NAHB Housing Market Index reading of 37 for November underscored ongoing weakness in homebuilder sentiment, while markets looked ahead to Federal Reserve minutes, Nvidia’s earnings, and a busy global data slate for the rest of the week. ^[3]

Below is a full look at what today’s numbers — and notable absences — mean for the U.S. and global economy.

Factory Orders Finally Land — and They Beat Expectations

After weeks of delay linked to the federal shutdown, U.S. factory orders data for August were finally published — and they delivered a modest positive surprise.

According to the Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders (M3) survey, new factory orders rose 1.4% in August, reversing July’s ‑1.3% decline and following a steep ‑4.8% fall in June. ^[4] The bounce suggests that the worst of this summer’s slump in goods demand may be easing, even if the broader trend remains choppy.

The recent pattern underlines how volatile the manufacturing side of the economy has been in 2025:

March: +4.3%
April: ‑3.7%
May: +8.2%
June: ‑4.8%
July: ‑1.3%
August: +1.4% ^[5]

Economists had been looking for roughly a 1.4% gain, based in part on the earlier rebound in durable goods orders, which saw a sharp 2.9% jump in August after several weak months. ^[6] The headline factory orders figure confirms that turnaround, but also underscores that the rebound is coming off a very low base.

Why it matters:

Factory orders are one of the broadest gauges of manufacturing demand, covering both durable goods (like machinery, aircraft and vehicles) and nondurables (like chemicals and food products). ^[7]
With other key indicators delayed or canceled, today’s release carries more weight than usual for analysts trying to track the health of U.S. industry.
The positive surprise helps counter the narrative of an outright manufacturing recession, but the whipsaw pattern in recent months still points to fragile underlying demand, especially in interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors.

Industrial Production Report Canceled: Fed Flying Partly Blind

Ironically, even as factory orders returned to the calendar, one of Tuesday’s supposed marquee data points — industrial production for October — never arrived.

On November 14, the Federal Reserve quietly announced that the G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release scheduled for November 18 would be delayed. The reason: the index relies on data from multiple federal agencies whose own publications have been pushed back by the shutdown. ^[8]

The Fed noted that it “will not publish” the November 18 G.17 release and will set a new date once the necessary source data become available. ^[9]

That decision comes on top of earlier Fed notices postponing the October 17 G.17 release, leaving markets without updated official industrial production data since August, when output ticked up just 0.1% after a 0.4% drop in July. ^[10]

The data gaps go far beyond the Fed:

A Reuters explainer and subsequent coverage by outlets including Investopedia note that the shutdown has delayed jobs reports, retail sales, housing data, import and export prices, and other high‑profile indicators, as agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau faced prolonged funding lapses. ^[11]
A Politico analysis warned that the disruption is “severely disrupting the collection and release of critical U.S. economic data”, raising questions about data quality even after releases resume. ^[12]

Market intel provider MNI summed up today’s situation bluntly: “There won’t be import/export price or IP data today.” ^[13]

Why it matters:

The Fed’s December policy meeting is approaching, but policymakers have far less official data than usual to assess growth and inflation.
Traders are being forced to lean more heavily on private‑sector indicators (like PMIs), market‑based measures and anecdotal corporate guidance.
The risk of policy mis‑steps increases when central banks are essentially reading the economy through a fogged‑up windshield.

Housing Market: NAHB Index Stuck at 37

One piece of the U.S. data flow that did arrive on schedule was the NAHB Housing Market Index, a closely watched measure of single‑family homebuilder sentiment.

For November, the index printed at 37, exactly in line with consensus and unchanged from October’s level. ^[14] Any reading below 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as “poor” rather than “good.”

Recent history for the index shows how sentiment has plateaued at weak levels:

June 2025: 32
July: 33
August: 32
September: 32
October: 37
November: 37 ^[15]

The improvement since late summer reflects a slight easing in mortgage‑rate volatility and steady demand in some Sun Belt markets, but homebuilders remain squeezed by high financing costs, elevated land prices and persistent labor shortages.

The NAHB data arrive ahead of October existing‑home sales, due Thursday, November 20 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is projecting annualized sales of about 4.06 million units, essentially flat versus September. ^[16]

Why it matters:

Housing is highly interest‑rate sensitive, making it a key transmission channel for Fed policy.
A weak but stabilizing NAHB index suggests that the housing downturn may have passed its worst point, but also that a vigorous recovery isn’t yet underway.
For markets, flat housing data support the idea of a slow‑growth, disinflationary environment rather than a sharp boom or bust.

Markets Under Pressure as Nvidia, Fed and Data Gaps Dominate Mood

Even with a better‑than‑expected factory orders report, risk sentiment remained fragile on Tuesday.

In Europe, major equity benchmarks sold off sharply:

Germany’s DAX: ‑1.3%
France’s CAC 40: ‑1.3%
U.K. FTSE 100: ‑1.0%

The declines tracked overnight weakness on Wall Street and were driven by renewed concerns over stretched tech valuations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, according to Investing.com. ^[17]

U.S. stocks opened lower as well. A Reuters market update noted that the Dow fell about 0.4% at the open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each down roughly half a percent, as investors reassessed the odds of a near‑term Fed rate cut and digested a growing wave of earnings downgrades in mega‑cap tech. ^[18]

Futures commentary from Barchart highlighted a clear risk‑off tone:

S&P 500 futures slipped as traders braced for Nvidia results and the delayed September jobs report later in the week.
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields eased to around 4.1%, reflecting demand for safe assets amid the equity sell‑off.
Fed funds futures now price roughly a 45–50% chance of a December rate cut, down from much higher odds earlier in the autumn. ^[19]

Fed speakers in focus

Even without fresh industrial production data, central bank communication remains front‑and‑center. Today’s schedule includes remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are due to speak this week, according to economic calendars from Kaohoon and other providers. ^[20]

Traders will parse every comment for clues on whether the Fed is leaning toward holding rates steady in December or delivering another 25‑basis‑point cut.

Global Economic Calendar: From Japan’s GDP Shock to Friday’s PMIs

Today’s U.S. releases sit within a packed global data week, mapped out by Kaohoon’s economic calendar and other global trackers. ^[21]

Monday: Japan and Thailand set the tone

Japan Q3 GDP (preliminary) came in weaker than hoped, with estimates pointing to around a 0.4% quarter‑on‑quarter contraction, ending a six‑quarter expansion streak as exports were hit by U.S. tariffs and regional tensions. ^[22]
Thailand’s Q3 GDP growth slowed versus earlier in the year, reflecting softer global demand and the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, though Kaohoon’s calendar showed consensus still looking for positive year‑over‑year growth. ^[23]

The downbeat start to the week reinforced the narrative of a fragile global recovery, especially in trade‑dependent economies.

Mid‑week: Trade, inflation and oil

For Wednesday, key releases include:

Japan’s October trade balance, expected to show another deficit as imports remain elevated and exports face tariff headwinds. ^[24]
The Eurozone’s final October inflation reading, with headline CPI seen holding at 2.1% year‑on‑year, confirming that inflation is back near the European Central Bank’s target after a prolonged spike. ^[25]
The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report, which will be watched closely after last week’s surprise 6.4 million‑barrel stock build. ^[26]

These data will help investors judge whether the global disinflation trend is continuing and how energy markets are balancing weaker demand against supply constraints.

Thursday: FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims and China’s LPR

Thursday brings a mix of central bank and real‑economy signals:

FOMC minutes from the October meeting should shed light on how united (or divided) policymakers were around the latest rate moves and their assessment of the shutdown‑related data blackout. ^[27]
The U.S. will also see initial jobless claims and the delayed October existing‑home sales report, with consensus centered around 4.06 million annualized transactions, matching September. ^[28]
In China, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0% for 1‑year loans and 3.5% for 5‑year loans, signaling a cautious PBoC that is wary of pressuring bank margins while the property sector remains under strain. ^[29]

Friday: Japan CPI and U.S. PMI Flash

The week culminates in a set of forward‑looking indicators:

Japan’s October inflation data are forecast to show headline CPI around 2.9% year‑on‑year, with core readings close by — still above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and a key input into whether the BOJ proceeds with a mooted rate hike from 0.5% as soon as December. ^[30]
In the U.S., S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI flash estimates for November will provide one of the clearest high‑frequency reads on activity, with prior readings at 52.5 for manufacturing and 54.8 for services, both in expansion territory. ^[31]

With so many “hard” government data series delayed, these private surveys are likely to have outsized market impact.

What Today’s Data — and Non‑Data — Mean for Investors

Taken together, November 18’s economic news paints a nuanced picture:

Manufacturing is bruised, not broken.
The 1.4% rebound in August factory orders suggests that U.S. manufacturing remains volatile but capable of patchy recoveries, especially in capital‑goods sectors that benefit from reshoring and industrial policy. ^[32]
The data blackout is still a major macro story.
With industrial production and import/export price indexes missing, Fed officials and market participants are making big decisions based on incomplete information, heightening the risk of surprise when the data backlog finally clears. ^[33]
Housing and services may carry more weight in the near term.
A flat but low NAHB index and upcoming existing‑home sales data will help clarify how quickly higher rates are feeding through to the real economy, while Friday’s PMI flash will do the same for manufacturing and services. ^[34]
Global growth concerns are back in play.
Japan’s GDP contraction, European tech‑led sell‑offs and elevated volatility in AI‑linked stocks like Nvidia show that markets are re‑pricing both growth and valuation risk at the same time. ^[35]

For now, the message from November 18 is clear: the U.S. data stream is flickering back to life, but not yet fully restored. Until the government’s statistical machinery is fully up and running, investors will have to treat each incoming release — like today’s factory orders — as a valuable but incomplete piece of a much larger puzzle.

The Importance and Role of Manufacturing in our Economy