Lowe’s (LOW) Stock Slips as Wall Street Braces for Q3 2025 Earnings, Dividend and Big Fund Moves

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) heads into a pivotal week with its third‑quarter 2025 earnings report due on Wednesday, November 19, against a backdrop of fresh Home Depot results, a newly declared dividend, and notable moves by major institutional investors.

With the home improvement sector still digesting higher rates, tariffs and a slower housing market, Lowe’s is under intense scrutiny from Wall Street, options traders and retail investors alike.

LOW stock today: drifting lower ahead of earnings

Lowe’s shares traded lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to Home Depot’s mixed Q3 results and positioned ahead of Lowe’s own earnings call. Recent real‑time quotes show LOW changing hands around the low‑$220s, down roughly 1% on the day, extending a pullback that has pushed the stock below its 50‑day moving average near $248 and its 200‑day moving average around $238. ^[1]

According to MarketBeat data, Lowe’s opened at about $225.35 in Tuesday’s session, with a market capitalization near $126–128 billion, a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 18.5–18.7 and a price‑to‑earnings‑growth (PEG) ratio of about 2.2. ^[2]

Performance has lagged the broader market. Reuters notes that over the last 12 months, Lowe’s shares have fallen roughly 16%, while Home Depot is down about 11%, compared with an approximate 15% gain for the S&P 500. ^[3] Simply Wall St calculates a one‑year total shareholder return for Lowe’s of ‑13.7%, with the stock down about 7.8% year‑to‑date as of mid‑November. ^[4]

From a valuation angle, Simply Wall St’s most widely followed narrative pegs Lowe’s “fair value” at roughly $278–279 per share versus a recent close of $227.85, implying the stock screens about 18% undervalued on their intrinsic value model. ^[5] At the same time, the shares trade at around 18.7x earnings, a modest premium to the U.S. specialty retail average near 17x, suggesting investors are still willing to pay up for Lowe’s earnings quality and cash‑flow profile. ^[6]

Dividend reaffirmed: 2%+ yield and ongoing cash returns

Even with the stock under pressure, Lowe’s continues to lean on shareholder returns as a core part of its investment story.

On Tuesday morning, MarketScreener highlighted that Lowe’s board has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.20 per share, payable February 4, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 21, 2026. ^[7] That keeps the annual dividend at $4.80 per share, representing a dividend yield of about 2.0–2.2% at current prices. ^[8]

MarketBeat’s institutional‑ownership reports note that the payout ratio sits around 39–40% of earnings, leaving room both for reinvestment in the business and for continued buybacks. ^[9] Lowe’s long history of annual dividend increases – placing it firmly in the “Dividend Aristocrat” conversation – remains a key attraction for income‑oriented investors, especially during periods of share‑price volatility. ^[10]

Q3 2025 earnings preview: modest growth expected

Lowe’s will hold its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call at 9:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 19, with a live webcast and supplemental materials available through its investor relations site. ^[11]

Street forecasts

Across Wall Street, expectations are for a quarter that shows stabilizing – but not booming – demand:

Earnings per share (EPS): TipRanks reports consensus EPS of about $2.97, representing approximately 2.8% year‑over‑year growth. ^[12]
Revenue: Q3 net sales are projected around $20.8–$20.9 billion, up roughly 3.3–3.5% versus last year. ^[13]
Comparable sales: Reuters data show analysts expecting roughly 1% growth in same‑store sales, a turnaround from a 1.1% decline in the comparable quarter a year ago. ^[14]

In other words, Wall Street is looking for low‑single‑digit growth in sales and earnings, with comps swinging slightly positive after a soft patch for big‑ticket, rate‑sensitive projects.

Home Depot’s “mixed” quarter raises the stakes

Lowe’s earnings will follow Tuesday’s report from Home Depot, which beat sales expectations but missed on earnings and cut its full‑year profit forecast amid weak demand for larger renovations and do‑it‑yourself projects. ^[15]

Home Depot’s Q3 adjusted EPS came in around $3.74 versus estimates near $3.84, while revenue climbed to roughly $41.35 billion, slightly ahead of consensus, and comparable sales rose about 0.2%, below the roughly 1.3% analysts had forecast. ^[16] The company cited ongoing housing market pressures, fewer storm‑related repair events and tariff‑driven uncertainty as reasons for its downbeat outlook. ^[17]

Those results put additional focus on Lowe’s ability to:

Defend margins amid tariffs and higher input costs
Grow its Pro contractor business
Demonstrate that its recent acquisitions are accretive to sales and earnings

Options market: braced for a 5% post‑earnings swing

Options traders are clearly expecting fireworks once Lowe’s reports.

According to a detailed preview from TipRanks, options prices are implying about a 5.08% one‑day move in either direction for LOW following the Q3 release – more than double the stock’s average absolute post‑earnings move of 2.13% over the past four quarters. ^[18]

TipRanks also reiterates that Wall Street expects EPS of roughly $2.97 and net sales of about $20.83 billion, in line with the broader consensus, and highlights a “Moderate Buy” rating on the stock with an average analyst price target around $284, implying mid‑20s percent upside from current levels. ^[19]

This combination – moderate fundamental expectations, a still‑constructive analyst stance and elevated options‑implied volatility – sets the stage for a binary‑feeling event where even small beats or misses on comps, margins or guidance could drive an outsized share‑price reaction.

Big money reshuffles: Rockefeller, Kingsview, Avantax trim LOW stakes

Institutional activity around Lowe’s has been busy heading into the back half of 2025.

Fresh 13F‑based reports from MarketBeat show several wealth managers reducing their exposure to Lowe’s in the second quarter, even as the company delivered solid Q2 results:

Rockefeller Capital Management L.P. cut its stake in Lowe’s by 32.4%, selling 93,273 shares and ending the quarter with 194,829 shares worth about $43.2 million. ^[20]
Kingsview Wealth Management LLC reduced its position by 20.2%, selling 10,623 shares, and now holds 41,951 shares valued around $9.3 million. ^[21]
Avantax Advisory Services Inc. trimmed its holdings by 14.5%, selling 6,664 shares and bringing its position to 39,369 shares worth roughly $8.7 million. ^[22]

At the same time, large asset managers such as Vanguard, Geode Capital Management and Invesco have continued to add or modestly increase their positions, leaving institutional ownership at about 74% of Lowe’s outstanding shares. ^[23]

There has also been meaningful insider selling. MarketBeat notes that executive vice presidents and CEO Marvin Ellison collectively sold around 92,900 shares over the past 90 days, worth roughly $25 million, with insiders now controlling only about 0.27% of the float. ^[24]

None of this, on its own, signals a fundamental problem – executives often sell for diversification or personal reasons – but it does add another cautious data point for investors already worried about macro headwinds.

Cramer and Wall Street strategists: split between value and caution

Lowe’s is attracting plenty of commentary from TV personalities and research desks ahead of earnings.

On CNBC’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer argued that “lately, Lowe’s has been in better shape” than Home Depot, praising the company’s leadership and execution and suggesting that CEO Marvin Ellison has positioned the chain relatively well despite the housing slowdown. ^[25]

Analysts, however, are not unanimous:

TipRanks / MarketBeat view: Across multiple sell‑side firms tracked by MarketBeat and TipRanks, Lowe’s carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 16 Buy ratings, 8 Holds and 1 Sell, and an average target price near $278–$284. ^[26]
Simply Wall St valuation: As noted earlier, Simply Wall St’s model suggests ~18% undervaluation versus its fair value estimate around $279, based largely on expected profit growth and an assumption that Lowe’s can narrow its margin gap with peers. ^[27]
Seeking Alpha skepticism: A recent Seeking Alpha piece, “Lowe’s Companies Is Still Fully Valued Ahead Of The Q3 Release,” argues that while Lowe’s fundamentals remain strong and its Pro segment is expanding, inflationary and macro headwinds limit upside at current prices. ^[28]

This split – quantitative models pointing to undervaluation while some fundamental analysts warn of limited upside – highlights how much rides on Lowe’s updated 2025 outlook and management commentary Wednesday morning.

Sector backdrop: traffic stabilizing, Gen Z emerging as a growth driver

Beyond Wall Street estimates, foot‑traffic data offer a nuanced view of where Lowe’s stands in the home improvement cycle.

A new Placer.ai analysis published today finds that year‑over‑year visit gaps for Lowe’s and Home Depot narrowed dramatically in Q3 2025, to around ‑0.1% for Lowe’s and ‑0.4% for Home Depot. ^[29] Earlier declines in late 2024 and the first half of 2025 reflected a pullback in large, discretionary renovation projects, but the near‑flat traffic comparisons – with some months even turning positive – suggest the start of a slow turnaround. ^[30]

The same report notes that:

Both retailers saw resilient demand in mid‑range categories, including seasonal items, repair and maintenance supplies, and certain higher‑ticket products. ^[31]
Deferred big projects and an aging U.S. housing stock are creating a pipeline of “latent demand” that could unlock once financing conditions improve. ^[32]
Gen Z customers are becoming increasingly important as they move into first apartments and starter homes. Both Lowe’s and Home Depot have launched creator‑driven marketing and influencer programs aimed at turning young DIYers into long‑term loyal shoppers. ^[33]

Taken together, the traffic data and demographic trends support the idea that the long‑term demand story for home improvement remains intact, even as near‑term results are constrained by tariffs, higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. ^[34]

Looking back: Q2 results set the bar for Q3

Lowe’s is also being judged against its own strong performance earlier this year.

In Q2 2025, the company reported:

Total sales of $24.0 billion, up from $23.6 billion a year earlier
Comparable sales growth of 1.1%
Diluted EPS of $4.27, or $4.33 on an adjusted basis, up about 5.6% year‑over‑year
Net earnings of $2.4 billion for the quarter
^[35]

The company simultaneously updated its full‑year 2025 outlook, calling for:

Total sales of $84.5–$85.5 billion
Flat to +1% comparable sales versus the prior year
Adjusted EPS of roughly $12.20–$12.45
^[36]

Lowe’s also closed the acquisition of Artisan Design Group (ADG) during Q2 and agreed in August to purchase Foundation Building Materials (FBM), bolstering its Pro contractor and new‑home construction exposure. ^[37] How smoothly these deals integrate – and how much they contribute to margins and sales – will be a key narrative thread on Wednesday’s call.

What to watch on the November 19 earnings call

For investors, analysts and traders following Lowe’s tomorrow, several themes are likely to dominate the Q&A:

Comparable sales and traffic mix
- Can Lowe’s deliver the expected ~1% comp growth, and is that driven more by Pro customers, DIY, or mid‑range repair categories?
- How are big‑ticket categories like kitchens, flooring and outdoor projects holding up in the face of financing costs and tariffs? ^[38]
Margins and tariffs
- How much are tariffs and input‑cost inflation still pressuring gross margins?
- Is the company successfully offsetting these pressures with pricing, mix and cost control?
Guidance for 2025 and beyond
- Does management reaffirm, raise or cut its full‑year guidance in light of Home Depot’s lower profit outlook and a still‑uncertain macro backdrop? ^[39]
Pro segment and acquisitions
- Early signs from the ADG and FBM acquisitions: synergy timelines, integration costs and their role in Pro penetration. ^[40]
Capital allocation and buybacks
- With a ~2% starting dividend yield and healthy free cash flow, how aggressively does Lowe’s plan to repurchase stock at current valuations? ^[41]

Bottom line

As of November 18, 2025, Lowe’s (LOW) sits at the crossroads of solid fundamentals, cautious sentiment and elevated short‑term uncertainty:

The company continues to generate strong cash flows, raise its dividend and expand its Pro and new‑construction exposure. ^[42]
Foot‑traffic and demographic data hint at a long‑term demand recovery, especially as Gen Z becomes a meaningful force in home improvement. ^[43]
But tariffs, higher rates, cautious consumers and heavy insider/institutional selling have left investors wary, even as valuation models and many analysts still see upside. ^[44]

With options markets pricing in a 5%+ swing around earnings, Lowe’s Q3 report and guidance on Wednesday are poised to be a major catalyst for the stock – and a fresh referendum on just how “in better shape” this home‑improvement giant really is compared with its closest rival. ^[45]