Ibex 35 Suffers Worst Drop Since April on AI Bubble Fears — What to Know Before the November 19 Open

The Ibex 35 closed Tuesday, 18 November 2025, with a sharp 2.14% fall to 15,827 points, its steepest daily drop since April and its fourth straight session in the red, leaving the Spanish benchmark down about 4.8% over those four days. Despite the setback, the index is still up roughly 36% so far in 2025. ^[1]

The sell‑off didn’t spare a single member of the index: all 35 stocks finished lower, dragged down by banks and travel‑related names, in a global risk‑off move driven by fears of an AI‑driven tech bubble, a slump in cryptocurrencies and renewed doubts about the path of U.S. interest‑rate cuts. ^[2]

Below is a detailed wrap‑up of what happened on the Spanish market today and the five key things to watch before the Ibex 35 opens again on Wednesday, 19 November 2025.

Ibex 35 Today: 2.14% Slide to 15,827 in a Global Sell‑Off

The Ibex 35 fell 345.6 points (-2.14%) to 15,827, decisively losing the 15,900 level and touching its lowest zone in almost a month. ^[3]
It was the index’s worst daily percentage drop since April, and its first four‑day losing streak of this magnitude since mid‑year. ^[4]
On a year‑to‑date basis, the Ibex still shows a gain of around 36.5%, highlighting how abrupt the current correction feels after months of strength. ^[5]

The weakness was part of a broader European and global rout:

The pan‑European STOXX 600 dropped about 1.8% to a one‑month low, marking its worst session since August. ^[6]
Major European benchmarks like Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 lost around 1.8–2.1%. ^[7]
In the U.S., by the time European markets closed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down roughly 500 points (about -1.1%), with the S&P 500 off around 1% and the Nasdaq about 1.2–1.4% lower, as investors dumped high‑valuation tech and AI names. ^[8]

Earlier in November, the Ibex had set fresh all‑time highs above 16,000, after repeatedly pushing to new records around mid‑month. ^[9] The current pullback is therefore a correction from historic peaks, not a bearish trend reversal — at least for now.

Sector Breakdown: Banks, Amadeus and Travel Names Led the Declines

The Ibex 35 is heavily weighted towards banks, energy and utilities, with names like Inditex, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, BBVA and Caixabank among its largest constituents. ^[10] When those stocks fall together, the index feels it.

Big Spanish banks under pressure

According to data from EFE and market platforms at the close: ^[11]

Banco Santander: -3.59% (to €8.77)
BBVA: -2.82% (around €17.60)
Caixabank: about -2.8% intraday, also closing sharply lower
Other financials and real‑estate names also dropped in sympathy

Analysts cited in Spanish media noted that Spanish banks have been trading on elevated valuation multiples compared with their own history, so any shift in rate expectations or global risk appetite tends to trigger outsized moves. ^[12]

Amadeus and travel stocks: worst of the day

The biggest individual loser on the Ibex was Amadeus IT Group, which slumped just over 5% by the close (around -5.2%), after a major local broker cut its target price and as markets fretted about softer consumer sentiment in the U.S., a key market for the company. ^[13]

Travel and tourism‑linked stocks also struggled:

IAG (Iberia/British Airways): about -2.8%
Airport operator Aena: around -1.8%
Hotel and leisure names outside the Ibex also posted steep falls

These sectors are highly sensitive to economic expectations and discretionary spending, so any narrative of slowing demand or tighter financial conditions hits them quickly.

Defensives and utilities fell too

Even traditional “defensive” heavyweights ended in the red:

Iberdrola: -0.83%
Inditex: -0.98%
Repsol: -1.15%
Telefónica: -2.63% ^[14]

Intraday, some names like Solaria, Redeia, Merlin Properties and Endesa briefly traded higher, but the late‑session acceleration in global selling eventually dragged every single Ibex 35 component negative by the close — a very rare breadth pattern. ^[15]

What Is Driving the Correction? AI Bubble Jitters, Crypto Slump and Fed Uncertainty

Today’s move has less to do with Spain specifically and more to do with a global de‑risking wave.

1. AI and tech “bubble” fears

Several surveys and reports highlight growing concern among global fund managers that corporate spending on AI and data centers has gone too far, too fast, especially in the U.S. mega‑cap tech complex. ^[16]

Articles in U.S. financial media describe investors increasingly talking about a potential AI bubble, pointing to stretched valuations in companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and other “Magnificent Seven” names. ^[17]
European stocks also fell sharply on renewed concerns about elevated tech valuations ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report. ^[18]

Even though the Ibex 35 is not a tech‑heavy index, Spain gets pulled along whenever global risk assets are repriced — especially after strong gains year‑to‑date.

2. Global equities and crypto under pressure

The sell‑off has been broad‑based:

Dow Jones: down around 1.1% (nearly 500 points)
S&P 500: off close to 1%
Nasdaq 100: down about 1.4% as tech weakness deepened ^[19]
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped about 3.2%, its sharpest fall in over seven months, with tech stocks leading the slide and geopolitical tensions between China and Japan adding to the pressure. ^[20]

On top of that, cryptocurrencies have resumed their decline, with Bitcoin losing close to 3% in the latest leg down and more speculative tokens falling even further, raising concerns about forced selling across different asset classes. ^[21]

Some analysts worry that leveraged positions in both equities and crypto could amplify cross‑asset volatility if investors are forced to liquidate holdings to meet margin calls. ^[22]

3. Interest‑rate path and private credit worries

Bond markets have seen safe‑haven flows, with U.S. 10‑year yields modestly lower around 4.1% and Spanish 10‑year yields near 3.2%, as investors rotate into government debt. ^[23]

At the same time, there are growing worries about the health of the private credit market, after some funds limited redemptions and credit spreads widened. ^[24]

For Spain, this combination is toxic for equities:

Banks get hit by fears of narrowing interest margins and higher credit risk.
Highly leveraged sectors (infrastructure, real estate, some utilities) are sensitive to any sign that financing conditions could become more restrictive again.

Technical Picture: Key Levels for the Ibex 35

The Ibex 35 is the main index of the Spanish continuous market, comprising the 35 most liquid Spanish companies. ^[25]

From a price‑action standpoint:

Earlier this month, the index was making fresh record highs above 16,000, with some sessions pushing toward the 16,400–16,600 area. ^[26]
Today, intraday trading saw a high near 15,981 and a low in the 15,836 area before settling at 15,827. ^[27]

Many short‑term traders are now watching:

Immediate support: the 15,800 region (today’s low and recent consolidation area).
Next support zone: roughly 15,600–15,500, close to late‑October trading ranges.
First resistance: a recovery of the 16,000 level.
Stronger resistance: the 16,300–16,400 band, where the latest rally stalled.

These levels are not guarantees, but they provide a framework: a clean break below 15,800 would confirm that the current correction still has room to run, while a quick reclaim of 16,000 would suggest the pullback is being bought.

Five Things to Watch Before the Ibex 35 Opens on Wednesday, 19 November 2025

1. FOMC Minutes: How Hawkish Is the Fed?

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s late‑October meeting (October 28–29) will be released on Wednesday, 19 November 2025, three weeks after the decision, in line with the usual schedule. ^[28]

Why it matters for the Ibex:

If the minutes show strong concern about inflation or hint that the Fed is less keen to keep cutting rates, markets may price higher yields for longer, which tends to pressure equities globally.
On the other hand, a more relaxed tone on inflation or growth would support the idea that the rate‑cut cycle remains on track, which is generally positive for risk assets.

For Spain specifically:

Banks benefit in the short term from higher rates, but a perception of “too high for too long” can raise worries about loan losses and weigh on stock prices.
Utilities and real estate prefer lower yields, as their cash flows are long‑dated and sensitive to discount rates.

2. Nvidia Earnings: A Global Test for the AI Trade

Nvidia, currently one of the world’s most valuable companies and a central player in the AI boom, will report Q3 FY2026 earnings on 19 November 2025. ^[29]

Market expectations:

Analysts are looking for around $1.25 in EPS and roughly $54–55 billion in revenue, still implying more than 50% year‑on‑year growth. ^[30]
Options markets are pricing in a move of about 7% in either direction, which could translate into a potential $300+ billion swing in market value, one of the largest post‑earnings reactions ever seen. ^[31]

Why a U.S. chipmaker matters for the Ibex 35:

Recent European declines have been explicitly linked to nervousness about Nvidia’s results, with investors fearing that any disappointment could burst at least part of the AI valuation bubble. ^[32]
A strong, reassuring earnings report could stabilize global tech and help European indices, including the Ibex, stage a relief rally.
A weak or cautious report would likely extend the risk‑off mood, hitting cyclical and risk‑sensitive sectors worldwide.

3. Macro Data: Inflation and Activity Numbers in Europe, the U.K. and the U.S.

Wednesday also brings a busy macroeconomic calendar:

U.K.: October CPI inflation data.
Eurozone:
- Current account figures for September
- Flash CPI for October
U.S.: October housing starts and building permits, plus other activity indicators over the next 24–48 hours. ^[33]

These releases matter for Spanish equities because they influence:

Interest‑rate expectations for the ECB and the Bank of England
The euro–dollar exchange rate, which affects exporters like Inditex, Repsol and IAG
General sentiment about the economic cycle in Europe and the U.S.

A softer inflation print combined with resilient activity would be the ideal mix for risk assets; higher‑than‑expected inflation could revive fears of renewed tightening or slower rate cuts.

4. Spain‑Specific Stock Catalysts to Watch

Reuters’ daily “Spanish stocks to watch” briefing highlights several company‑specific stories that could move individual names within or around the Ibex 35: ^[34]

Enagás (ENG) – Approved a gross interim dividend of €0.40 per share, payable on December 23. This reinforces its profile as a high‑yield defensive stock, and traders will watch whether income‑seeking investors step in on weakness.
Santander (SAN) – Has joined the Federal Reserve’s liquidity facility circuit in the U.S., a strategic move to deepen its presence in that market. It underlines Santander’s global ambitions even as its share price suffers in the current banking sell‑off. ^[35]
Ferrovial (FER) – Plans to eliminate its Mobility and Services business line after selling most of its assets, sharpening its focus on core infrastructure. It is also shortlisted for a €2.5 billion port expansion project in Vancouver, which could be a meaningful growth driver if awarded. ^[36]
Colonial (COL) & Naturgy (NTGY) – Reports suggest Colonial may buy Naturgy’s Madrid headquarters for over €80 million, a deal that would be closely watched by investors in real estate and utilities. ^[37]
ACS – Intends to allocate up to €1.5 billion to acquisitions over five years, focusing on transport and next‑generation infrastructure. That keeps M&A optionality alive in one of the index’s key construction groups. ^[38]

While these stories are not as market‑moving as Nvidia or the Fed, they can create idiosyncratic opportunities and relative‑performance gaps within the Spanish market.

5. Overnight Risk Mood: Asia Session and Futures

Before the Ibex 35 reopens, markets will digest:

The final U.S. close for Tuesday
The Asian trading session (especially Japan and China)
Early indications from European equity futures on Wednesday morning

Given that:

Japan’s Nikkei has already fallen about 3.2% in Tuesday’s session, closing near four‑week lows, ^[39]
The STOXX 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 ended Tuesday near one‑month lows with their biggest daily losses since late summer, ^[40]

any additional deterioration in Asia or a further slide in U.S. futures could set the stage for another risk‑off open in Madrid. Conversely, signs of stabilization or short‑covering in tech could allow the Ibex to attempt a technical rebound after four punishing sessions.

Practical Takeaways for Investors

Reminder: This is general market commentary, not personal investment advice. Always consider your own objectives and risk tolerance or consult a professional adviser.

For short‑term traders

Respect the volatility: with global AI and tech sentiment driving big swings, position sizing and stop‑loss discipline are crucial.
Watch 15,800 on the Ibex 35 as the first key support; a clear break could invite selling toward 15,600–15,500, while a bounce above 16,000 would improve the tone.
Keep an eye on Nvidia headlines and U.S. index futures during the evening — they can heavily influence European opens.

For medium‑ and long‑term investors

Remember that even after today’s move, the Ibex is still up strongly in 2025, so this episode looks like a correction from elevated levels rather than a structural collapse. ^[41]
Use the pullback to re‑evaluate concentration risk:
- Are you over‑exposed to banks and cyclicals that suffer when global risk sentiment sours?
- Do you have enough defensive or diversified holdings to weather repeated bouts of volatility?
Pay attention to macro and Fed signals over the next 48 hours: if inflation and the minutes support a continued easing path, the current stress could prove to be a buy‑the‑dip opportunity. If not, further downside cannot be ruled out.

Stretched valuations in global tech, heightened scrutiny of the AI boom, a wobbling crypto complex and a crucial week for Fed communication have combined into a perfect storm for risk assets — and the Ibex 35 is feeling the shock.

How the index trades tomorrow will depend largely on what the Fed minutes and Nvidia’s narrative tell investors about the sustainability of the AI‑led bull market and the path of interest rates. For now, the message from today’s session is clear: risk appetite has narrowed, and the margin for disappointment is thin.

¿Subidas en bolsa o burbuja en IA? La opinión de Franco Macchiavelli. #Shorts