Micron (MU) Stock Today, Nov. 19, 2025: HBM Sold Out for 2026 as CFO Signals Higher AI Capex and TD Cowen Lifts Target to $275

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) traded slightly lower on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, as investors digested fresh guidance on capital spending, new color on its AI memory roadmap, and another bullish Wall Street price‑target hike.

MU stock price on November 19, 2025

Micron shares closed around $225.92 on Wednesday, down roughly 1.1% from the prior close, after trading between $216.51 and $235.01 on heavy volume of about 33.9 million shares. ^[1]

Despite today’s modest pullback, MU remains one of 2025’s standout performers:

The stock is up about 198% year to date, according to analysis published today by The Motley Fool. ^[2]
Earlier this week, Micron hit a new all‑time high near $257.45, underlining the magnitude of the recent AI‑driven rally. ^[3]

Today’s move comes against that backdrop of explosive gains, which makes any commentary about future capital expenditures and cycle sustainability especially sensitive.

Today’s major Micron (MU) headlines

1. CFO flags higher capital spending at RBC Global Technology Conference

The most closely watched development today came from Micron’s appearance at RBC Capital Markets’ 2025 Global Technology conference.

CFO Mark Murphy said Micron’s current capital spending run‑rate of about $18 billion is likely to come under “pressure” to increase, driven by persistent supply tightness expected to extend beyond 2026 and the company’s multi‑year customer agreements. ^[4]
Murphy also highlighted a “significant increase in cash flow,” a calmer debt profile, and reiterated that Micron expects to reach a net cash position in the near term. ^[5]

Investing.com reported that MU stock fell about 1% in morning trade following these comments, as investors weighed the benefits of capacity expansion against the risk of higher capital intensity. ^[6]

In short: the company is signaling confidence in long‑term AI demand, but the market is debating how much additional spending it will take to realize that growth.

2. HBM supply fully contracted for 2026 and AI memory demand still surging

At the Global Technology, Internet, Media & Telecommunications Conference 2025 earlier today, Micron gave more detail on its AI memory positioning. ^[7]

Key takeaways from CFO Mark Murphy and CTO Scott DeBoer:

All of Micron’s high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for calendar 2026 is already fully contracted, covering both HBM3E and HBM4. ^[8]
The company sees strong data‑center demand, particularly from AI workloads, and says business conditions have improved further since its September earnings call. ^[9]
DeBoer described Micron as being in the “strongest position in history” on technology and products, with its 1‑beta and 1‑gamma DRAM nodes at mature yield and ramping, and next‑generation 1‑delta and 1‑epsilonnodes in development. ^[10]
For HBM4, Micron has designed a part that can operate at over 11 Gbps per pin, with the aim of setting the performance benchmark for the new standard. Future HBM4E products will introduce TSMC as a base‑die partner, supporting more custom configurations for top AI customers. ^[11]

This messaging reinforces the idea that Micron is leaning hard into the AI infrastructure boom—locking in HBM volumes ahead of time, but also committing to heavy, multiyear investment.

3. TD Cowen raises Micron price target to $275

On the analyst front, TD Cowen issued one of the most notable updates of the day:

The firm raised its price target on MU from $200 to $275 while maintaining a Buy rating. ^[12]
Cowen’s new target implies meaningful upside from current levels and is based on expectations that book value per share growth will accelerate through early 2027, supported by strong pricing in the memory market. ^[13]
The note pointed out that historically, Micron’s stock has not typically peaked more than six months before year‑over‑year book‑value growth peaks, suggesting the cycle could still have room to run. ^[14]

Cowen’s move adds to a wave of bullish revisions seen in recent months:

Rosenblatt Securities has a $300 price target and a Buy rating.
Citigroup recently raised its target to $240 while maintaining a Buy. ^[15]
Other firms like Piper Sandler, Mizuho, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS have also lifted targets or upgraded ratings since October, reflecting growing confidence in Micron’s AI and HBM positioning. ^[16]

According to MarketBeat’s aggregation, Micron currently carries a consensus “Buy” rating, with the vast majority of analysts on the bullish side. ^[17]

4. Micron sets date for fiscal first‑quarter 2026 earnings call

After the closing bell, Micron issued an official GlobeNewswire press release announcing its next earnings event:

The company will report fiscal first‑quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Mountain Time (4:30 p.m. EST). ^[18]

This call will update investors on the quarter following Micron’s record‑breaking fiscal 2025, where the company:

Delivered Q4 revenue of about $11.32 billion, up roughly 46% year over year. ^[19]
Posted non‑GAAP EPS of around $3.03, easily beating analyst expectations. ^[20]
Achieved all‑time highs in its data‑center business, according to CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. ^[21]

Management has previously guided Q1 FY 2026 to strong levels, with revenue around the mid‑$12 billion range and adjusted EPS in the mid‑$3s, alongside gross margin guidance above 50%. ^[22]

Investors will be listening closely on December 17 for updated HBM shipment plans, capex levels, and any revisions to that outlook.

5. Flows and sentiment: institutions trim, ETF interest surges

Institutional positioning in Micron continues to evolve:

Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd disclosed that it reduced its MU stake by 11.8% in Q2, selling about 107,000 shares and ending the period with 796,000 shares worth roughly $98 million. Micron still represents about 1% of Clal’s portfolio, and approximately 80.8% of Micron’s stock is held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[23]

At the same time, leveraged products tied to Micron are drawing in fast money:

An article on ETFTrends noted that a leveraged Micron‑focused ETF has tripled its assets under managementas traders seek to magnify their exposure to the AI‑infrastructure theme. ^[24]

Coupled with a nearly 200% year‑to‑date move, these flows underline how popular—and potentially crowded—the Micron trade has become.

6. Recent volatility: from vertical rally to sharp pullback

Even before today’s capex headlines, Micron had already started to cool off.

A piece on FX Leaders, last updated today, highlighted that:

After touching around $261 early this week, MU fell below $230 within two sessions, a drop of roughly 13%, as broader AI and semiconductor names came under pressure. ^[25]
The selloff followed sector downgrades and growing concerns that the AI‑infrastructure rally may have run ahead of fundamentals. ^[26]
Technically, key support levels lie around the 50‑day moving average near $200, with a deeper zone of interest in the $175–$180 range if selling accelerates. ^[27]

Meanwhile, The Motley Fool’s piece “Micron Stock Is Up 198% in 2025. Is It Too Late to Buy?” frames today’s debate: fundamentals and long‑term AI demand look attractive, but expectations—and the share price—are now much higher than a year ago. ^[28]

Fundamentals snapshot: what’s behind the rally?

From a fundamentals standpoint, Micron is emerging from one of the most severe memory downturns in history into a powerful upcycle fueled by AI servers:

Q4 FY 2025
- Revenue: $11.32 billion, +46% year over year.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $3.03.
- Net margin: about 22.8%; return on equity around 17%. ^[29]
Balance sheet and liquidity
- Debt‑to‑equity ratio: ~0.26.
- Current ratio: ~2.5; quick ratio close to 1.8. ^[30]
Valuation
- Trailing P/E around 30x, with a PEG ratio near 0.5, reflecting strong expected earnings growth relative to the current valuation. ^[31]

Micron has also initiated and maintained a modest dividend, with a payout ratio in the low single digits relative to earnings, keeping plenty of cash available for the heavy capex needed to stay ahead in advanced DRAM and HBM. ^[32]

Industry backdrop: tight memory supply, but rising competition

The macro backdrop is a key part of today’s story.

Research from TrendForce this week warns that DRAM, NAND, and NOR are all tightening at once, as suppliers phase out older DDR4 capacity and pivot to HBM and DDR5. The firm sees a potential DDR4 wafer shortfall of around 70,000 wafers by year‑end 2025, with tightness persisting into 2026. ^[33]
A separate report on Nvidia’s roadmap suggests that moving to more smartphone‑style memory architectures in AI servers could double server‑memory pricing by late 2026, which would be a tailwind for DRAM and HBM suppliers like Micron if demand holds up. ^[34]

At the same time, competitive risks are real:

Digitimes reports that Samsung is poised to become Nvidia’s leading HBM4 supplier, citing concerns that Micron may be lagging in meeting some of Nvidia’s HBM4 requirements. The article suggests a potential reshuffle of Nvidia’s HBM supply chain in 2026, with Samsung and SK Hynix gaining share. ^[35]

Add to this the geopolitical backdrop:

Earlier this month, CoinCentral reported that Micron is exiting the market for server chips sold into Chinese data centers, following the lingering impact of a 2023 Chinese ban on some of its products. The company will still serve Chinese automotive and mobile customers, but the data‑center opportunity there is effectively off the table. ^[36]

Taken together, Micron is operating in a high‑growth but high‑stakes environment: tight supply and AI demand are very supportive, but competition and geopolitics could change the balance of power, especially in HBM4.

Key dates and catalysts to watch

For investors tracking MU stock after today’s moves, several near‑term catalysts stand out:

Nvidia earnings later today (Nov. 19, 2025)
Nvidia reports its fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close, an event widely viewed as a bellwether for AI infrastructure demand. Any commentary on GPU supply, HBM adoption, or AI data‑center spending will likely move the entire memory complex, including Micron. ^[37]
Micron fiscal Q1 2026 earnings – December 17, 2025
Micron’s own call will give updated detail on: ^[38]
- How quickly HBM3E and HBM4 are ramping and which customers are driving growth.
- The new capex outlook, following today’s hints that spending is set to rise from the current ~$18 billion run‑rate. ^[39]
- Progress toward a net cash balance sheet. ^[40]
- Any further commentary on China strategy, automotive memory, and emerging products like automotive UFS 4.1, which Micron began sampling earlier this month. ^[41]
Analyst revisions and institutional flows
With price targets climbing (e.g., Cowen to $275, Rosenblatt to $300) and institutional stakes actively rotating, fresh 13F filings and research notes could continue to inject volatility into MU. ^[42]

Bottom line

On November 19, 2025, Micron’s share price is pausing after a huge year‑to‑date rally, but the fundamental narrative remains centered on AI:

Demand: HBM and server DRAM for AI data centers remain exceptionally strong, with Micron claiming sold‑out HBM supply for 2026. ^[43]
Investment: Management is signaling higher capital spending to support that demand while emphasizing financial discipline and the goal of a net‑cash balance sheet. ^[44]
Sentiment: Wall Street is broadly bullish, but after a ~200% run, investors are far more sensitive to any hint that the AI memory boom might cool—or that competition could erode Micron’s edge.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Micron should carefully evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.

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