Canada Stock Market Today: What to Know Before the TSX Opens on November 20, 2025

Canada’s stock market heads into Thursday’s session with momentum on its side and a powerful global tailwind from Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings. As investors prepare for the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) open on November 20, 2025, here’s a full rundown of the key drivers: global markets, commodities, central bank decisions, economic data and Canadian stocks to watch.

1. Snapshot: The Big Things to Know Before the TSX Opens

TSX closed Wednesday at 30,278.41, up 0.81%, driven by strength in technology, materials and industrials. ^[1]
Global markets are rallying after Nvidia’s blowout earnings, with European indexes up about 1% and U.S. stock futures sharply higher. ^[2]
Oil is holding just below US$60 for WTI and mid‑US$60s for Brent, supporting Canada’s heavyweight energy sector. ^[3]
Gold is consolidating around US$4,070/oz and copper near US$5.0/lb, keeping a supportive backdrop for miners after a huge year for precious metals. ^[4]
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25% after an October cut, with inflation easing to 2.2% in October, near the 2% target but with core measures still sticky. ^[5]
A delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report arrives later today, a key global risk event that could move the Canadian dollar, yields and TSX sentiment. ^[6]

Taken together, the setup for Canada’s market open is cautiously optimistic, with global risk appetite returning but plenty of macro data still ahead.

2. TSX Recap: Tech, Miners and Industrials Lead a 0.8% Jump

On Wednesday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 241.95 points (+0.81%) to 30,278.41, reversing two days of declines and moving back toward record territory. ^[7]

Sector and stock highlights from yesterday’s close:

Technology:
- The TSX technology group gained about 2.3%, powered by renewed enthusiasm for AI and cloud plays ahead of Nvidia’s report. ^[8]
- Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO) jumped roughly 4.6%, extending a strong 2025 rally and cementing its role as a key driver of the TSX. ^[9]
Materials and gold miners:
- Rising gold prices and firm copper supported gains across materials, with G Mining Ventures and Celestica (a big hardware/IT name) among the top contributors to the index. ^[10]
Top individual gainers on the TSX Wednesday, according to Investing.com:
- MDA Ltd (MDA) +5.50%
- G Mining Ventures (GMIN) +5.37%
- Celestica Inc. (CLS) +4.90% ^[11]
Largest decliners included:
- Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN) –2.27% (hit a 5‑year low)
- Bausch Health (BHC) –1.96%
- Nutrien (NTR) –1.82% ^[12]

Market internals were fairly balanced, with decliners slightly outnumbering gainers, suggesting breadth wasn’t as strong as the headline move. The S&P/TSX 60 VIX volatility index eased to around 19, signalling calmer sentiment heading into today’s open. ^[13]

From a technical standpoint, the TSX now sits not far below its 52‑week high near 30,860, underscoring how resilient Canadian equities have been despite trade tensions and rate cuts. ^[14]

3. Global Markets: Nvidia Ignites a Tech-Led Relief Rally

The single biggest story for global markets — and by extension for the TSX — this morning is Nvidia’s Q3 earnings beat and bullish guidance.

Asian markets: Most major Asian indices rallied, with tech-heavy markets tracking Nvidia’s strength and easing fears of an AI bubble. Futures for the S&P 500 were up around 1.3% during Asian trade, and sentiment was broadly risk‑on. ^[15]
European markets:
- The STOXX 600 is up about 1%, with Germany and France also gaining more than 1% as Nvidia’s results “light up global markets.” ^[16]
- European tech shares and AI‑linked industrials (such as ASML and Schneider Electric) are trading notably higher. ^[17]
U.S. futures (pre‑market):
- S&P 500 futures: +~1.3%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: +~1.7%
- Dow futures: +~0.6% ^[18]

These moves create a constructive backdrop for Canadian equities, particularly TSX technology constituents (Shopify, Constellation Software, CGI), as global risk appetite re‑engages with AI and growth stories.

4. Commodities: Oil Firm, Gold Elevated, Copper Off Highs

Oil: Slight Rebound After Recent Selling

Crude is stabilizing after recent volatility:

WTI January futures traded around US$59.5–59.7, up about 0.3–0.4% in early Thursday dealings.
Brent January futures hovered near US$63.6–63.7, also modestly higher. ^[19]

Recent inventory data showing a multi‑million barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks and ongoing supply concerns have helped put a floor under prices, even as growth worries linger. ^[20]

For the TSX:

This is mildly supportive for heavyweights such as Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Suncor (SU), all of which are sensitive to small moves in oil. ^[21]

Gold: Elevated but Choppy Around US$4,070

Gold’s extraordinary 2025 run — up more than 50% year‑to‑date — has paused, with spot prices:

Trading near US$4,070/oz early Thursday
Down slightly versus Wednesday’s close in some feeds, but still not far below recent highs. ^[22]

Safe‑haven demand remains tied to:

Uncertainty around delayed U.S. data and central‑bank timing on rate cuts
Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal concerns in several developed economies ^[23]

For Canadian investors, elevated gold prices:

Provide a tailwind to TSX gold miners and royalty companies (e.g., Agnico Eagle, Barrick, Franco‑Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals). ^[24]

Copper: Still Strong, but Off the Peak

Copper prices, a key barometer for global growth and crucial for many TSX miners, are:

Near US$5.0/lb on front‑month U.S. futures
Slightly below this month’s highs but still up strongly year‑over‑year. ^[25]

China’s copper demand has been softer than some expected into the late‑year “busy season,” tempering the rally even as smelter margins remain tight. ^[26]

For Canada, robust but volatile copper pricing:

Matters for Teck Resources and a host of junior miners and explorers that populate the TSX and TSX Venture.

5. Macro Backdrop: BoC Cuts, Cooling Inflation, and Productivity Worries

Bank of Canada: Rate Cuts, but Signalling a Pause

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on October 29, its second consecutive cut, and signalled that rates are now “about the right level” unless the outlook worsens materially. ^[27]

Key points for markets:

The BoC is trying to balance slowing growth (Q2 GDP contracted, trade and investment are weak) with inflation that’s back near target but not fully tamed. ^[28]
Rate‑sensitive sectors on the TSX (real estate, utilities, pipelines, rate‑reset preferreds) are watching for any hint that the bank could resume easing or turn more hawkish again.

Inflation: October CPI Slows to 2.2%

On Monday, Statistics Canada reported that headline CPI rose 2.2% year‑over‑year in October, down from 2.4% in September and moving closer to the BoC’s 2% target. ^[29]

Drivers:

Gasoline prices fell sharply versus a year ago.
Food inflation eased to about 3.4%, still painful but trending lower. ^[30]
Core inflation measures (trimmed mean, median, ex‑food and energy) remain in the 2.5–3% range on an annualized basis, keeping the BoC cautious about declaring victory. ^[31]

Productivity: BoC Flags a Structural Problem

Late Wednesday, External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent delivered a speech titled “Canada’s weak productivity: reversing course”, warning that the country’s long‑standing productivity gap versus the U.S. is holding back incomes and growth. ^[32]

Key themes:

Canada’s productivity has lagged the U.S. since 2000, particularly in business investment and innovation. ^[33]
Higher productivity would make it easier to sustain wage growth without stoking inflation — a crucial message for both policymakers and markets.

For equities, this narrative underscores why capital spending, innovation and AI adoption are increasingly central to the investment case for leading Canadian companies, from banks and telcos to industrials and resource producers.

6. Currency Watch: Loonie Soft Around 1.40–1.41 vs the U.S. Dollar

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure despite the BoC’s recent cuts and strong commodity prices:

USD/CAD is trading around 1.40–1.41, roughly C$1.405 per US$1 in early Thursday dealings. ^[34]
Earlier this week, the pair climbed after the softer‑than‑expected CPI report, as markets priced in the possibility that Canadian rates may stay below U.S. levels for longer. ^[35]

A weaker loonie:

Helps exporters and resource producers by boosting CAD‑denominated revenues from U.S. dollar sales.
Hurts importers and consumers, particularly on goods priced in U.S. dollars (electronics, autos, travel).

For TSX investors, this FX backdrop tends to favour export‑oriented, commodity and globally diversified companies over purely domestic, consumer‑facing plays.

7. Today’s Big Global Risk Event: Delayed U.S. Jobs Report

A key macro event on the radar today is the delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September, postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown and now scheduled for release on Thursday, November 20. ^[36]

Why it matters for Canada:

A weak print could support risk assets, push bond yields down and boost hopes of earlier Fed rate cuts — a scenario that has historically helped the TSX and gold.
A strong print could reignite rate‑hike fears, push the U.S. dollar higher against the Canadian dollar and pressure growth and tech names globally.

Markets have clearly positioned optimistically ahead of the release, given the surge in U.S. futures and global tech stocks this morning.

8. Canadian Stocks and Sectors to Watch Today

8.1 Energy & Resources

Cenovus Energy (CVE)

Cenovus has launched a US$2.6 billion multi‑tranche senior notes offering expected to close today, November 20. ^[37]
The deal should term out debt at attractive rates, potentially improving flexibility for shareholder returns, but it does add to the company’s gross debt load in the short term.

Valeura Energy (VLE)

Valeura’s new Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) officially starts today, allowing it to buy back shares until November 19, 2026. ^[38]
NCIBs are generally read as a signal of management confidence and can provide a supportive bid under the stock.

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

This morning, Vizsla Silver announced it has priced US$250 million of convertible senior notes due 2031, with closing expected around November 24, pending TSX and NYSE American approvals. ^[39]
The raise boosts liquidity for project development but also introduces potential dilution via conversion.

Titan Mining (TI)

Titan Mining begins trading on the NYSE American under “TII” today, while continuing to trade on the TSX under “TI”. ^[40]
Dual‑listing can expand the investor base and liquidity, which TSX traders will be watching closely.

Junior miners & explorers

A wave of financings and updates has crossed the tape in the last 24–48 hours, including:
- Blue Sky Uranium closing a C$3.5 million private placement. ^[41]
- CopAur Minerals completing a C$3.28 million non‑brokered placement. ^[42]
- Doubleview Gold closing a C$7.18 million private placement. ^[43]
- Plato Gold reporting Q3 results in a release dated November 20. ^[44]

These deals reinforce that risk appetite is returning to the junior mining space, helped by strong gold and copper prices.

8.2 Financials, Infrastructure and Real Estate

Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC)

Brookfield Infrastructure has launched a US$400 million at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program, allowing it to sell shares on the TSX and NYSE over time at prevailing prices. ^[45]
While ATM programs provide flexible funding for growth, they can act as a subtle overhang on the stock if used heavily.

Element Fleet Management (EFN)

Element recently priced a new private offering of senior notes and renewed its NCIB program. ^[46]
Investors may focus on funding costs, leverage trends and buyback pace as key drivers for total returns.

Canacol Energy (CNE)

Canacol announced it has been granted creditor protection to pursue a restructuring. ^[47]
That’s a clear red flag for equity holders and will likely keep pressure on the stock and its bonds.

Choice Properties REIT (CHP.UN)

The trust reported progress on its own NCIB, with more than 280,000 units repurchased as of November 20. ^[48]
Real estate investors are weighing improved rate backdrop against still‑soft property fundamentals.

8.3 Health Care and Services

Extendicare (EXE)

Extendicare announced a deal to acquire CBI Home Health for $570 million in cash, expanding its home care footprint. ^[49]
The acquisition pushes the company deeper into home health, a structurally growing segment as Canada’s population ages and hospital systems remain stretched.

BioSyent (RX.V)

BioSyent is scheduled to release Q3 and year‑to‑date 2025 results today, November 20. ^[50]

Arch Biopartners (ARCH)

Arch Biopartners closed a C$600,000 non‑brokered equity financing, aimed at funding further development of its kidney‑disease candidates. ^[51]

8.4 Industrials, Technology and Specialty Names

CAE Inc. (CAE)

CAE announced progress on implementing competency‑based training and assessment (CBTA) principles across its business aviation training programs, reinforcing its positioning in high‑end aviation services and simulation. ^[52]

Real Matters (REAL)

Real Matters, a mortgage‑technology platform, is scheduled to release Q4 and full‑year 2025 results before the market open today, with a conference call to follow. ^[53]
With housing affordability stretched and mortgage volumes under pressure, guidance and commentary on U.S. and Canadian housing markets will be closely watched.

Stella‑Jones (SJ) & Altus Group (AIF)

Both companies have Investor Day events set for November 20, giving deeper insight into capital allocation, margin targets and growth plans. ^[54]

9. Housing and Consumer Stress: Affordability Still Front and Centre

Beyond markets, housing affordability remains a powerful macro theme in Canada:

A new SingleKey study released this morning suggests renting is increasingly no longer a reliable stepping stone to homeownership, as rising rents and living costs erode savings capacity. ^[55]
Separate data show Toronto home sales fell to a four‑month low in October, as higher uncertainty and stretched budgets keep many buyers on the sidelines. ^[56]

For the TSX, this environment:

Can pressure consumer‑facing and housing‑linked names (REITs, homebuilders, mortgage‑exposed financials).
But it may benefit landlords and some REITs through strong rental demand, especially in prime locations.

10. How Traders Are Likely to Frame Today’s Session

Heading into the open on Thursday, November 20, 2025, Canada’s stock market is being pulled by three main forces:

Global Tech Euphoria vs. Valuation Jitters
- Nvidia’s earnings have reignited the AI trade, lifting global tech and boosting Nasdaq futures. ^[57]
- On the TSX, that favours Shopify, IT services and semiconductor‑exposed names — but valuation concerns, after a year of big gains, haven’t disappeared.
Commodities and the Loonie
- Oil and copper remain high enough to support Canadian energy and materials, while gold’s lofty level underpins miners and royalties. ^[58]
- A soft Canadian dollar boosts exporters’ competitiveness but underscores the domestic economy’s challenges. ^[59]
Rates, Inflation and the U.S. Jobs Surprise Factor
- With the BoC at 2.25% and inflation near target but not quite tamed, Canada’s rate story is now tightly linked to the Fed’s path. ^[60]
- The delayed U.S. payrolls report arriving later today could set the tone for the rest of the week — and potentially the rest of the year — for global risk assets. ^[61]

For short‑term traders, today is likely to be about riding the global tech and risk‑on wave while staying nimble around the U.S. data release. For longer‑term investors, the focus remains on quality balance sheets, sustainable dividends, exposure to structural themes (AI, energy transition, aging demographics) and resilience through a slower‑growth environment.

Quick Note

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.

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