Walmart Q3 Earnings Beat Forecasts as Holiday Shoppers Hunt for Deals

Walmart’s latest quarterly results landed just as the 2025 holiday shopping season kicks into gear — and together they paint a clear picture of the American consumer: still spending, but laser‑focused on value.

On Thursday, Walmart reported stronger‑than‑expected sales and raised its full‑year outlook, even as many households feel squeezed by high prices and a cooling job market. At the same time, the retail giant is rolling out aggressive Black Friday discounts and ultra‑cheap holiday meal bundles, positioning itself as the go‑to destination for shoppers trying to stretch every dollar. ^[1]

Inside Walmart’s Q3: Big Sales, Bigger Signal About the Economy

For its latest quarter (reported November 20), Walmart delivered the kind of numbers that make Wall Street and policymakers pay attention:

Revenue: About $179.5 billion, up 5.8% year over year and ahead of analyst estimates around $177–178 billion. ^[2]
U.S. comparable sales (stores + online): Up 4.5% for the August–October period, beating expectations of roughly 3.8%. ^[3]
Global e‑commerce sales: Up 27%, driven by store‑fulfilled pickup and delivery and its online marketplace. ^[4]
Advertising business: Global retail media revenue surged 53%, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. up more than 30%. ^[5]
Profit metrics: Adjusted earnings per share came in around $0.62, roughly in line or slightly ahead of forecasts near $0.60. Operating income was essentially flat on a GAAP basis but up about 8% on an adjusted, constant‑currency basis, helped by higher-margin digital businesses. ^[6]

Crucially, Walmart raised its full‑year guidance for the second time this year. The company now expects:

Net sales growth: About 4.8%–5.1% (previously 3.75%–4.75%)
Adjusted EPS: Roughly $2.58–$2.63 for the year, up from prior guidance of $2.52–$2.62. ^[7]

At the same time, Walmart confirmed plans to move its stock market listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq in December, a symbolic nod to how much of its future is tied to technology, automation and digital advertising. ^[8]

A Split‑Screen Consumer: Stretched Budgets, Strong Spending

Beyond the headline numbers, Walmart’s quarter offers one of the clearest windows into how Americans are coping with the cost‑of‑living squeeze.

Low‑ and middle‑income shoppers are under real strain…

According to the company and analysts, households on tighter budgets are still cutting back on extras, skipping discretionary categories like home décor or big-ticket upgrades and prioritizing essentials — often at the lowest possible price. ^[9]

Persistent inflation, higher borrowing costs and a softer job market have pushed many shoppers to:

Trade down from premium brands to private labels
Buy smaller pack sizes
Stick more rigidly to shopping lists
Delay or forgo non‑essential purchases

These trends echo broader economic data: consumer sentiment has slumped even as retail spending and employment have held up reasonably well. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but much of that headline figure reflects higher prices rather than booming volumes. ^[10]

…but higher‑income households keep the cash registers ringing

At the same time, Walmart’s results show strong demand from higher‑income households, who are increasingly using the chain as a way to “trade down” without feeling like they’re sacrificing quality.

Reuters reporting on the quarter notes that households earning more than $100,000 have accounted for roughly two‑thirds of Walmart’s recent growth, helped by services like its $98‑per‑year Walmart+ subscription, which offers fast delivery and other perks. ^[11]

That dynamic helps explain how:

Overall sales can rise
Holiday forecasts can look “robust” on paper
Yet many families still say they feel worse off

In other words, Walmart is thriving partly because the affordability crisis is real — and more shoppers across the income spectrum are hunting for deals.

Holiday 2025: Deep Discounts, Smaller Baskets

With Black Friday days away, Walmart is using its scale to lean hard into value messaging.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday: thousands of deals under $20

In a holiday campaign unveiled this week, Walmart promised “more Black Friday deals, more Cyber Monday steals” and a faster, more convenient shopping experience:

Thousands of items under $20, including toys, home goods and small electronics
Big-ticket promotions such as 85‑inch 4K TVs, premium hair dryers and outdoor griddles at steep discounts
Early online access for Walmart+ members, who can log in hours before the general public to grab hot products before they sell out
Expanded Express Delivery, with Walmart saying it can now reach about 95% of U.S. households in three hours or less for eligible orders. ^[12]

The holiday marketing push is wrapped in a whimsical campaign featuring actor Walton Goggins as a modern Grinch character — a reminder that, even in a value‑driven environment, storytelling still matters, especially on social and streaming platforms.

The $4‑per‑person Thanksgiving dinner

Well before today’s earnings release, Walmart had already pulled a key lever in the value playbook: ultra‑cheap holiday meals.

In October, the company reintroduced its Thanksgiving meal basket that feeds around 10 people for under $40 — less than $4 per person. The bundle includes a Butterball turkey priced at about $0.97 per pound (its lowest turkey price since 2019) and more than 20 items for sides and dessert, with free express delivery for first‑time Pickup & Delivery customers. ^[13]

The basket is marketed as Walmart’s most affordable holiday meal yet. But it has also drawn scrutiny from some commentators who note that the “deal” looks better in part because some side dishes and extras have been trimmed compared with earlier years — a sign of how retailers and politicians alike are trying to tell a positive story about prices in an environment where many shoppers don’t feel much relief. ^[14]

Retail’s New Divide: Walmart vs. the Strugglers

Walmart’s upbeat quarter stands in contrast to several other big‑box chains.

Target, for example, reported a 2.7% drop in comparable sales and lower revenue for its own third quarter, even as it beat earnings expectations on cost control. The company has been slashing prices on thousands of items heading into the holidays to win back cautious shoppers. ^[15]
Home‑improvement chains like Lowe’s and Home Depot have recently cut their annual forecasts, pointing to weak demand for big‑ticket renovation projects — another sign consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending. ^[16]

Taken together, these results suggest a “two‑track” retail economy:

Value‑oriented giants like Walmart (and dollar stores, club chains, discount grocers) that benefit when people trade down
Retailers tied to discretionary or mid‑priced goods (apparel, home décor, big projects) that are struggling to maintain sales without heavy markdowns

Walmart’s strong grocery and everyday‑necessity mix, plus its growing digital ecosystem, give it a clear edge in this environment.

How Walmart’s Tech, Ads and Memberships Are Reshaping Its Business

While Walmart is still best known for stacks of low‑priced goods in cavernous stores, a growing chunk of its profit story lives online.

E‑commerce isn’t just a side business anymore

With 27% global e‑commerce growth this quarter, Walmart has turned its stores into mini fulfillment centers, powering pickup, curbside and same‑day delivery. ^[17]

This strategy does three important things:

Keeps online costs down by using existing store networks instead of separate warehouses for many orders
Improves inventory turns, because items on the shelf can simultaneously serve in‑store and online demand
Makes Walmart harder to beat on convenience, especially in suburban and rural markets where fast delivery from rivals can be patchier

Advertising and memberships: small line items, big profit engines

Walmart’s retail media business — the ads brands pay to place on its website, app and in stores — grew more than 50% this quarter. Membership and other income rose around 9%, with Walmart+ membership revenue up over 16%. ^[18]

Those streams matter because:

They carry higher margins than selling physical goods
They let Walmart tap into fast‑growing digital ad budgets, a space dominated for years by Amazon and Google
They deepen customer loyalty, as shoppers who pay for Walmart+ are more likely to consolidate spending with the retailer

Several analysts have noted that roughly half of Walmart’s recent profit growth is coming from these newer businesses, not just from traditional retail markups. ^[19]

The company’s planned move to Nasdaq underscores this shift: Walmart increasingly wants to be seen not just as a big retail chain, but as a tech‑enabled platform that happens to sell groceries and everything else. ^[20]

Leadership Change at the Top

Today’s earnings also arrive during a period of leadership change. Walmart has already announced that long‑time CEO Doug McMillon will step down in 2026, with U.S. president John Furner slated to take over. ^[21]

McMillon’s tenure has been defined by:

Massive investments in e‑commerce and automation
The launch and evolution of Walmart+
A push into retail media and data‑driven advertising

Furner inherits a company with strong momentum but also plenty of challenges: tariffs, price‑sensitive shoppers, and intense competition from Amazon and dollar stores. The Q3 beat and upgraded outlook give him a stronger starting point — but also raise expectations.

What This Means for Shoppers, Investors and the Economy

For shoppers:
Expect a holiday season defined by big headline discounts, especially on electronics, toys and home items — but also by careful basket‑building. Many families are likely to splurge selectively on a few big gifts while trimming the rest of their spending, especially on everyday non‑essentials. Walmart’s cheap meal bundles and budget‑priced Black Friday deals are tailored precisely for this mood.

For investors:
Walmart’s results reinforce its position as one of the most defensive, yet still growing, names in retail. The mix of steady grocery demand, expanding e‑commerce, high‑margin advertising and rising membership revenue provides multiple growth levers, even if economic growth slows further. The transition to Nasdaq and ongoing automation investments are meant to strengthen that story.

For the broader economy:
When Walmart beats on sales and raises guidance while talking openly about stressed lower‑income shoppers and booming higher‑income demand, it sends a clear signal:

The consumer isn’t collapsing — they’re just getting more selective
Spending is tilting toward value and essentials, away from mid‑priced discretionary purchases
Rising affordability pressures are reshaping where and how Americans shop, not just how much they spend ^[22]

For now, at least, Walmart’s Q3 performance suggests that the U.S. consumer still has fuel left in the tank — but is driving with an eye on the gas gauge.

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