PACS Group (PACS) Stock Soars as Q3 2025 Earnings, Restatement Cleanup and Bullish Guidance Ignite Rally

PACS Group, Inc. (NYSE:PACS) is back in the spotlight on Thursday after delivering strong third‑quarter 2025 results, completing a high‑stakes financial restatement process and unveiling upbeat guidance that has sent the stock to fresh 52‑week highs. ^[1]

The post‑acute care operator’s shares have surged this week as investors digest a rare combination of record revenue growth, restored SEC compliance and a series of bullish analyst calls from RBC Capital and Truist Securities. ^[2]

As of early afternoon on November 20, PACS stock is trading around $16.83, up sharply over the past week and near its 52‑week high of about $17.70. ^[3]

What PACS Group Does

PACS Group is a holding company focused on post‑acute healthcare. Through its subsidiaries, it operates more than 300 skilled nursing, senior living and other post‑acute care facilities across the United States, with around 30,000 patients served daily. ^[4]

The company’s model is “locally led, centrally supported”: individual facilities maintain operational autonomy while tapping into shared administrative, compliance, technology and training infrastructure provided by PACS. ^[5]

That footprint and operating structure are central to the Q3 story: PACS is showing that a scaled skilled‑nursing platform can still post double‑digit growth despite reimbursement pressure, staffing challenges and regulatory scrutiny.

Q3 2025: Revenue Jumps, Profit More Than Triples

PACS released its long‑awaited third‑quarter 2025 results after the close on November 19, followed by a flurry of coverage early on November 20. ^[6]

Headline numbers

According to the company’s official earnings release and subsequent summaries: ^[7]

Q3 2025 revenue: about $1.34 billion, up roughly 31% year over year (vs. around $1.02 billion in Q3 2024).
Net income: approximately $52–53 million, more than tripling from about $15–16 million a year ago (an increase of ~235%).
Adjusted EBITDA: about $131.5 million, reflecting strong underlying operating performance.
Year‑to‑date 2025 revenue:$3.93 billion, up 36.4% versus the prior‑year period.
Year‑to‑date net income: around $131.7 million. ^[8]

Operational metrics were equally eye‑catching. PACS reported that: ^[9]

192 facilities — roughly 69% of its skilled‑nursing portfolio — hold a 4‑ or 5‑star CMS Quality Measure rating.
“Mature” facilities posted 94.8% occupancy, far ahead of an estimated industry average of around 79%.

For a sector where occupancy and quality ratings directly feed reimbursement and profitability, those numbers underline why the quarter is being described as a “blowout” by some commentators. ^[10]

Turning the Page: Restatements, Audit Probe and SEC Compliance

Today’s rally is not just about growth; it’s about credibility.

In November 2024, short‑seller Hindenburg Research published a critical report on PACS, raising questions about its accounting and growth model. ^[11] The company subsequently launched an independent audit committee investigation and delayed several SEC filings while it reviewed its financials.

On November 19–20, PACS confirmed that: ^[12]

The audit committee has completed its investigation.
The company has restated prior financial statements, including a roughly $46.1 million reduction in revenue previously reported for Q2 2024.
PACS is now current on all SEC filings, returning to full compliance with NYSE and regulatory requirements.
Recommendations from the audit committee have either been implemented or are in the process of being implemented.

In a call with analysts, CEO Jason Murray described the moment as “the start of a new chapter for PACS,” emphasizing renewed efforts to build trust with regulators, investors and partners. ^[13]

For a stock that had been under a cloud of regulatory uncertainty — including a CFO resignation and NYSE compliance concerns earlier in 2025 — closing the book on the investigation is arguably as important as the Q3 growth itself. ^[14]

Raised Guidance: Management Leans Into Growth

Alongside earnings and the restatements, PACS issued new full‑year guidance that came in ahead of Wall Street expectations.

According to company commentary and third‑party summaries: ^[15]

Full‑year 2025 revenue is now expected in the range of $5.25–$5.35 billion, up from prior expectations around $4.6 billion.
Core profit (adjusted EBITDA) is forecast between $480–$490 million, above a consensus estimate near $473 million.

RTTNews also notes that PACS is targeting 28–30% revenue growth for full‑year 2025, underscoring management’s confidence in continued momentum coming out of the restatement period. ^[16]

That combination — fast revenue growth, margin expansion and a guidance raise — is exactly the kind of setup that tends to attract growth‑oriented investors, particularly when a stock is emerging from a controversy discount.

Market Reaction: Premarket Spike and 52‑Week Highs

The market’s verdict arrived quickly on Thursday.

Premarket: In early trading, RTTNews listed PACS among the top pre‑market movers, with the stock up about 40% to $23.50. ^[17]
A Stocktwits news report cited an even more dramatic reaction, noting that PACS jumped 53% in pre‑market after the company announced the completion of its audit committee probe and raised full‑year guidance. ^[18]
Subsequently, PACS pushed to a new 52‑week high, highlighted in separate coverage describing the Q3 performance as a “blowout.” ^[19]

Data providers differ slightly on the exact one‑week return, but all show a spectacular rebound:

Simply Wall St estimates a 46.9% one‑week share price gain, with year‑to‑date performance now up around 30%. ^[20]
InvestingPro data cited by Truist Securities pegs the one‑week gain closer to 57%, with the stock “trading near its 52‑week high of $17.70.” ^[21]

Either way, PACS has rapidly moved from deep value territory — after months of “regulatory anxiety,” as one analysis put it — to a market darling within the skilled‑nursing space. ^[22]

Analyst Response: RBC and Truist Stay Bullish

Today’s headline move is being reinforced by upbeat commentary from major Wall Street firms.

RBC Capital: Target up to $33

RBC Capital raised its price target on PACS from $32 to $33, maintaining an Outperform rating. ^[23]

Key points from RBC’s note, as reported by Investing.com: ^[24]

The new target implies significant upside from the current mid‑teens share price.
RBC points to “solid 3Q results” and encouraging 2025 guidance despite what it calls an “internal audit overhang.”
The target is based on 9x RBC’s 2026 EBITDAR estimate, suggesting PACS is still attractively valued on forward cash‑flow metrics.

Truist Securities: Buy rating reiterated, $32 target

Shortly after, Truist Securities reiterated its Buy rating and $32 price target. ^[25]

According to Truist’s comments: ^[26]

PACS shares, at around $16.83, still show “significant upside” to the firm’s $32 target.
The stock has surged over 50% in the past week, yet Truist still sees value given the company’s 37%+ trailing twelve‑month revenue growth and strong occupancy trends.
The investment bank highlights “solid core trends,” robust cash flow and a “clean balance sheet”, which it says give PACS “ample flexibility” for future M&A and capital deployment.
Importantly, Truist underscores that PACS is now current on all filings, with audit committee recommendations “implemented or in process,” removing a major overhang.

Together, the two calls reinforce a narrative that PACS is not just recovering from its accounting saga — it is potentially emerging stronger, with a clearer balance sheet and tighter controls.

Valuation Check: High P/E, Conflicting Fair‑Value Signals

With the stock ripping higher, the obvious question for investors is whether PACS is now too hot, or still reasonably priced for its growth.

Simply Wall St’s latest analysis notes: ^[27]

PACS trades at a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of about 28.3, above the U.S. healthcare industry average near 21.9.
At a recent closing price around $16.83, the market is assigning a premium multiple versus peers — a sign of optimistic expectations for future growth.
Nonetheless, the service’s regression‑based “fair P/E” model suggests PACS could justify an even higher multiple, implying the stock may not yet fully reflect its projected earnings profile.

But the picture isn’t one‑sided. Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Simply Wall St arrives at a fair value estimate of just $2.59 per share, far below the current market price — a reminder that long‑term cash‑flow assumptions can dramatically alter valuation conclusions. ^[28]

Meanwhile, analyst targets in the low‑30s from RBC and Truist suggest a more constructive view, implying roughly 90–100% upside from current levels if their assumptions play out. ^[29]

For now, the consensus seems to be that PACS is a classic “show‑me” story: the market is willing to pay up, but the company must continue executing — and avoid any further surprises on the accounting or regulatory front.

Key Risks Investors Are Watching

Even amid the euphoria, several risk factors remain in focus:

Regulatory and compliance overhang
- Although PACS is now current with SEC filings and has completed its audit committee probe, the company only recently emerged from a period of restatements in response to short‑seller allegations. ^[30]
- Any new issues in internal controls or disclosures could quickly damage the newly rebuilt trust.
Margin pressure in skilled nursing
- Skilled‑nursing operators remain exposed to labor cost inflation, staffing shortages and reimbursement changes, especially in Medicare and Medicaid.
- While PACS currently boasts above‑average occupancy and quality scores, those advantages must be sustained to defend margins. ^[31]
Aggressive growth and M&A execution
- PACS has grown rapidly through acquisitions and facility expansions. Analysts at Truist and RBC explicitly tie their bullish theses to continued successful ramp‑up of new and acquired facilities. ^[32]
- Integration missteps, regulatory hurdles in new markets or slower‑than‑expected ramping could weigh on returns.
Valuation risk after a parabolic move
- With shares up 40–50% in a single week and trading at a premium P/E, PACS is vulnerable to pullbacks if quarterly results or guidance stumble. ^[33]

What Today’s News Means for PACS Stock

For investors tracking healthcare and post‑acute care names, November 20, 2025 marks a clear inflection point for PACS Group:

The company has closed the loop on its restatement saga, restored regulatory compliance and laid out a more transparent set of financials. ^[34]
Q3 2025 results show robust, broad‑based growth, with revenue up more than 30% and net income more than tripling year on year. ^[35]
New guidance points to another year of strong top‑ and bottom‑line expansion, supported by high occupancy and quality metrics across its nationwide network. ^[36]
The stock has re‑rated sharply higher, but major firms like RBC and Truist still see room for additional upside, even as valuation tools like DCF models flash caution. ^[37]

Whether PACS ultimately justifies today’s exuberance will depend on something more mundane than Thursday’s headlines: quarter after quarter of clean reporting, stable margins and disciplined growth in a highly regulated industry.

For now, though, PACS Group has delivered exactly what the market had been waiting for — proof that the business is growing, the books are cleaned up, and management is willing to be held to a higher standard going forward.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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