Updated: November 20, 2025
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) remains at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade — but today’s action shows just how volatile that trade has become.
After touching all‑time highs earlier this month, Palantir stock has pulled back more than 20% while still sitting on a triple‑digit gain for 2025. [1] At the same time, the company is rolling out new government and defense partnerships and clearing key security hurdles abroad, even as Wall Street grows more divided on what the shares are actually worth.
Here’s a full rundown of what’s happening with Palantir stock today, November 20, 2025 — and what the latest headlines mean for investors.
Palantir stock price today: Volatile session after early strength
As of late trading on Thursday, Palantir shares are changing hands around $158, down roughly 4–5% on the day. The stock opened near $172, traded as high as about $174, and has dipped as low as roughly $156 on heavy volume of nearly 60 million shares.
Even after today’s drop, the numbers around Palantir are extreme:
- Market cap: roughly $390+ billion
- 52‑week range: about $60 to just over $207 per share [2]
- Valuation: trailing P/E ratio near 390, with a P/E/G above 6, reflecting very high expectations for future growth [3]
Earlier in the session, Palantir actually traded higher in pre‑market action after announcing a major cybersecurity milestone in Australia, with Benzinga noting pre‑market gains of over 4% to the low‑$170s before the broader tech tape turned choppier. [4]
From a medium‑term perspective, Palantir is still up more than 100% year‑to‑date, but has dropped roughly 20% from its intraday peak around $207 on November 3. [5] That combination — huge year‑to‑date gains and a sharp recent pullback — is exactly what’s driving both dip‑buyers and skeptics into the stock today.
1. IRAP PROTECTED certification unlocks new opportunities in Australia
The biggest company‑specific headline for November 20 is a new cybersecurity clearance in Australia that could open the door to more public‑sector business.
Palantir announced that it has achieved the IRAP PROTECTED level under the Australian Information Security Registered Assessors Program (IRAP). [6] This is a key security benchmark for software providers that want to handle sensitive workloads for the Australian federal government and other public entities.
According to the Business Wire release:
- Palantir’s IRAP PROTECTED assessment was completed by an independent assessor under standards set by the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD).
- The certification covers Palantir Platform Australia, which delivers Foundry and AIP from Amazon Web Services regions located in Australia, tailored for both government and commercial clients. [7]
Benzinga reports that the clearance allows a broader set of Australian government and commercial customers to adopt Palantir’s platforms while meeting strict national cybersecurity requirements, and helped lift the stock in pre‑market trading. [8]
Why it matters
- Australia is a key “Five Eyes” ally, and winning deeper trust there can reinforce Palantir’s position as a go‑to vendor for secure AI software in defense and critical infrastructure. [9]
- The IRAP PROTECTED level effectively expands Palantir’s addressable market in the region: more agencies can now buy the software without lengthy exception processes.
In other words, this is a strategic greenlight that could translate into incremental contracts over the coming years.
2. New Exiger partnership strengthens U.S. Army supply‑chain footprint
Also hitting the tape today: a new U.S. Army–linked partnership that deepens Palantir’s role in military logistics and readiness.
Supply‑chain AI firm Exiger announced that it is partnering with Palantir to support U.S. Army Materiel Command, integrating Exiger’s 1Exiger platform with Palantir’s operating system and the Army’s existing data environments like Vantage and Weapons System 360. [10]
Key points from the Exiger press release:
- Exiger has secured a multi‑million‑dollar contract with the Army to license its AI‑driven supply‑chain software to Army Materiel Command.
- Palantir’s platform will help fuse battlefield demand signals with supply‑chain data to coordinate procurement, maintenance, and sustainment across ground, aviation, munitions and communications systems. [11]
- Palantir Defense head Mike Gallagher described the collaboration as a way to align production decisions with real‑time battlefield needs, reducing lead times and giving commanders better visibility into supply‑chain risk. [12]
This builds on a series of recent U.S. government wins:
- A new Enterprise Service Agreement with the U.S. Army announced in July 2025, which provides a framework for the branch’s future data and software needs and is meant to enhance readiness while driving cost efficiencies. [13]
- A $385 million contract from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to build a data platform for the National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics, aimed at improving decision‑making and veteran outcomes. [14]
- A U.S. Treasury contract to create a unified API layer to support developer platforms and analytics across the department. [15]
Why it matters
These deals reinforce the narrative that Palantir’s government franchise remains a core growth engine and continues to expand horizontally — not just in intelligence and battlefield operations, but also in logistics, healthcare and finance across the federal government.
3. Analysts are split: “Hold” consensus, AI downgrades and aggressive bull cases
Today’s other big theme is that Wall Street is struggling to agree on Palantir’s value, even as the fundamentals look very strong.
Consensus: “Hold” with high valuation
MarketBeat’s November 20 update shows that across 24 covering analysts, Palantir carries an average “Hold” rating:
- 2 Sell, 17 Hold, 5 Buy
- Average 12‑month price target around $172 per share
- Recent price targets range from about $150 on the cautious side to $255 from more bullish houses like Bank of America. [16]
MarketBeat also highlights how stretched the valuation is: a trailing P/E nearly 394, a market cap around $394 billion, and a 52‑week range from under $60 to over $207. [17]
AI‑driven downgrade from TipRanks
In a highly watched move, TipRanks’ AI Analyst — a model that blends multiple AI engines — downgraded Palantir from Buy to Hold and cut its price target from $232 to $188. [18]
The AI analyst’s reasoning, per TipRanks:
- Palantir shares are up more than 119% this year, and momentum has cooled, with the stock down around 9% over the past week amid new AI bubble worries.
- The system flags Palantir’s P/E ratio above 390 as a major risk, suggesting the stock may be overvalued in the near term. [19]
- It still acknowledges strong U.S. revenue growth, robust cash flow and the strategic importance of Palantir’s partnership with Nvidia as positives — but sees limited upside from current levels. [20]
The updated $188 target still implies low‑teens percentage upside, but the tone is cautiously neutral rather than outright bullish.
Freedom Capital: higher target, still a “Sell”
A report cited by Finviz notes that Freedom Capital recently raised its Palantir target price from $125 to $170, but maintained a “Sell” rating. [21]
The firm:
- Acknowledges Palantir’s Q3 upside, driven by record U.S. commercial growth and accelerating AIP adoption.
- Flags flat European operations, potential defense‑budget pressure and AI hiring costs as risks.
- Argues that today’s valuation already prices in “embedded hyper‑growth” that is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. [22]
Bulls: Nvidia earnings “change everything”
On the bullish side, today’s Seeking Alpha note argues that Nvidia’s blowout Q3 results suggest the AI build‑out is still in its early innings, resetting sentiment across AI‑levered names like Palantir. [23]
That analyst:
- Reiterates a Buy rating on Palantir with a $200 price target, implying ~21% upside from recent prices. [24]
- Highlights Palantir’s Q3 beat and 121% year‑over‑year U.S. commercial revenue growth as evidence that the company is capturing a central role in enterprise AI. [25]
- Believes Palantir’s partnership with Nvidia positions it as a key player in the next wave of agentic AIapplications. [26]
Separately, a 24/7 Wall St piece published today leans heavily bullish, describing Palantir as having reached “escape velocity” with triple‑digit U.S. commercial growth, accelerating profitability and a free‑cash‑flow profile that could top $2 billion in 2026. Some forecasters cited there model 2026 adjusted EPS multiple times higher than current consensus, arguing that on those numbers the stock might actually look cheap. [27]
Trillion‑dollar talk
Reflecting the excitement, a CoinCentral feature notes that Palantir would need roughly a 145% gain from here to join the “trillion‑dollar club”, based on today’s valuation. The article also points to 63% revenue growth to $1.18 billion in Q3 and operating margins around 51% as the financial engine that could make such a scenario possible. [28]
Bottom line: On one side of the ledger are analysts and AI models calling Palantir overheated but high quality; on the other are bulls arguing that Wall Street is still underestimating how explosive earnings and cash flow could become if current growth persists.
4. Q3 2025: the “explosive” numbers everyone is arguing about
Much of today’s debate traces back to Palantir’s Q3 2025 earnings, reported on November 3.
From company filings and investor materials:
- Total revenue: about $1.18 billion, up roughly 63% year‑over‑year, beating consensus estimates near $1.09 billion. [29]
- U.S. revenue: $883 million, up about 77% year‑over‑year and 20% sequentially, driven primarily by the commercial side. [30]
- U.S. commercial revenue: roughly $397 million, up around 121% vs. Q3 2024 and close to 30% quarter‑over‑quarter. [31]
- Commercial revenue overall: about $548 million, up roughly 73% year‑over‑year. [32]
- U.S. government revenue also grew strongly, rising more than 50% year‑over‑year. [33]
Profitability is now matching the growth:
- GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $0.18, with adjusted EPS about $0.21, topping analyst estimates near $0.17. [34]
- GAAP operating margin of around 33%, a dramatic improvement from just a few years ago. [35]
- Rule of 40 (revenue growth + operating margin) of about 114, an unusually high score even among fast‑growing software names. [36]
Free cash flow looks equally impressive. One recent analysis highlights adjusted operating margins near 51% and free cash flow of about $540 million for the quarter, bringing the trailing 12‑month figure to around $2 billion. Management has reportedly raised full‑year revenue guidance to roughly $4.4 billion and is guiding for around 61% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q4, with U.S. commercial revenue expected to more than double this year. [37]
These are the “explosive numbers” that are fueling bullish calls — and the same numbers that have left valuation‑focused investors wondering whether they’re looking at a generational compounder or an AI bubble in the making.
5. Stock has dropped 20% — dip‑buying opportunity or warning sign?
Today’s price action also comes against the backdrop of a noticeable pullback from the highs.
A Trefis study released this morning points out that:
- Palantir stock has fallen about 20.2% in less than a month, sliding from $207.18 on November 3 to around $165 at the time of that analysis. [38]
- Historically, when Palantir has suffered a 30%+ drop within 30 days, the median 12‑month return after such “sharp dips” has been –7.4%, with a median peak gain of about 41% and a median max drawdown of –38% in the following year. [39]
- On basic quality metrics — revenue growth near 47% over the last twelve months, three‑year average growth around 29%, and operating cash‑flow margin over 46% — Palantir passes the screen as a “high‑quality” business. [40]
For investors, that history suggests two things can be true at the same time:
- Palantir has the kind of fundamentals that justify serious attention.
- Buying every dip has not always been rewarding, and volatility has been severe even after past sharp drops.
6. Beyond government: Fox News, media and enterprise AI expansion
While government contracts dominate headlines, Palantir is also pushing harder into commercial and media use cases — another factor behind today’s elevated expectations.
A November 18 Axios report details how Fox News Media has been working with Palantir for about a year to build a suite of AI‑powered newsroom tools, including: [41]
- A “topic radar” tool that quickly briefs reporters on a story using internal and external data.
- A text‑editing assistant that checks copy for broken links and style guide adherence.
- An article insights system that analyzes performance data to help optimize digital stories.
The relationship is framed as a strictly commercial arrangement: Fox provides broad operational access to enable a “digital twin” of its newsroom, but uses legal and technical safeguards so its content isn’t used to train generic AI models. [42]
The Fox deal fits into a broader pattern of Palantir using Foundry and AIP to embed deeply inside customers’ operations — from airlines and energy majors to hospitals and industrial companies — creating high switching costs and long revenue tails. [43]
7. Bull vs. bear case after today’s headlines
Putting all of this together, here’s how the investment debate around Palantir looks after November 20’s news.
The bull case
Supporters argue that:
- Growth is extraordinary: revenue up over 60%, U.S. commercial growth above 120%, and a Rule of 40 north of 100 are metrics rarely seen in large‑cap software. [44]
- Moat is expanding: IRAP PROTECTED status, new U.S. Army and VA work, Treasury API projects, and high‑profile partnerships (Fox News, PwC, FTAI Aviation, NHS) suggest Palantir is becoming deeply embedded in critical workflows across sectors. [45]
- Unit economics are stellar: high gross margins, growing operating margins and strong free cash flow mean Palantir can self‑fund expansion without heavy dilution or debt. [46]
- AI cycle still early: Nvidia’s latest earnings and guidance suggest AI infrastructure demand remains robust, which could sustain spending on platforms like Palantir’s for years. [47]
- In more aggressive scenarios, 24/7 Wall St and others argue that if Palantir’s EPS ramps anywhere near the upper‑end bullish projections for 2026, today’s multiples might actually prove conservative. [48]
The bear (or cautious) case
Skeptics counter that:
- Valuation is extreme: a P/E near 400 and a near‑$400 billion market cap leave little room for disappointment, especially if growth normalizes from “hyper” to merely “high.” [49]
- AI bubble risk is genuine: Palantir has become a favorite among momentum and retail traders, and several analysts explicitly reference concerns about an AI bubble or “embedded hyper‑growth” expectations. [50]
- Geographic and segment concentration: U.S. commercial and U.S. government are doing the heavy lifting, while European growth remains comparatively flat, raising questions about how global the franchise really is. [51]
- Historical drawdowns: past sharp dips have often been followed by more volatility rather than smooth recoveries, and a Trefis study shows median 12‑month returns after such drops have actually been negative. [52]
In short, bulls see a once‑in‑a‑generation AI platform whose earnings could catch up to and eventually justify today’s valuation; bears see a great business, potentially at the wrong price.
8. What to watch next
For anyone tracking Palantir stock after today’s news, some key signposts over the coming weeks and months include:
- Follow‑through from IRAP and Australia
Do we see concrete new Australian federal or state deals tied to the PROTECTED certification? That will help quantify how valuable this clearance really is. [53] - Additional defense and VA work
Watch for task orders and expansions under the U.S. Army enterprise agreement, the VA NCVAS platform, and the new Exiger partnership for Materiel Command. [54] - Non‑U.S. growth
Investors will be looking for signs that Palantir can replicate its U.S. momentum in Europe and the rest of the world, especially in commercial verticals. [55] - Margin sustainability
Can Palantir maintain high‑30s or better operating margins while still investing heavily in R&D and go‑to‑market, or will costs re‑accelerate as it chases growth? [56] - Valuation vs. growth trajectory
Future earnings reports will either validate or deflate the more aggressive 2026 cash‑flow and EPS projections put forward by the most optimistic analysts. [57]
Final thought
Nothing in Palantir’s story today suggests the company’s operational momentum is slowing — if anything, the IRAP win and new Army supply‑chain partnership show its AI platform continuing to gain strategic relevance. At the same time, the valuation debate is intensifying, with human and AI analysts alike warning that even great businesses can be poor investments if bought at the wrong price.
For investors, that means Palantir stock on November 20, 2025 sits at the intersection of spectacular fundamentals and elevated expectations. Whether today’s pullback is a buying opportunity or a warning sign will depend largely on your time horizon, risk tolerance and conviction in the durability of the AI spending cycle.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
References
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