TSX Today: What to Know Before the Canadian Stock Market Opens (Nov. 21, 2025)

Toronto – Friday, November 21, 2025

Canada’s main stock index is heading into Friday’s open on the back foot after a sharp selloff in miners and tech stocks, softer commodity prices, and a choppy week for global risk assets. The Toronto Stock Exchange will trade on its regular schedule today, with the S&P/TSX Composite opening at 9:30 a.m. ET and closing at 4:00 p.m. ET. ^[1]

Here’s a concise rundown of the key macro data, global cues, and stock-specific stories to watch before the bell.

1. Where the TSX Is Coming From

A sharp reversal on Thursday

On Thursday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 371.86 points, or 1.2%, at 29,906.55, its lowest finish since November 6. ^[2]

Reuters notes that the index had been up earlier in the session, buoyed by Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings, but buyers lost conviction as doubts resurfaced about whether the surge in AI-related corporate spending will actually pay off. ^[3]

Sector breakdown:

Materials fell about 4.5%, pressured by weaker copper prices and a slump in several mining names. ^[4]
Technology dropped around 2.6%, reflecting ongoing “AI bubble” concerns that have whipsawed growth and chip-adjacent stocks all week. ^[5]

A Dow Jones/MarketWatch recap described the session as “Toronto stocks slip, led lower by miners,” underscoring how sensitive the TSX remains to metals and precious‑metals sentiment. ^[6]

Still just below record territory

Despite the setback, the TSX is only about 3% below its record closing high of 30,827.58 set earlier this month. ^[7]

That means today’s open is less about a market in crisis and more about whether investors see Thursday’s slide as:

A buying opportunity after a strong autumn rally, or
The start of a deeper de‑rating in rate‑sensitive sectors and high‑valuation tech.

2. Global Overnight Cues: Cautious Risk Mood

US futures: mixed, tech-tilted caution

Pre‑market data from Markets Insider shows Dow futures slightly higher, S&P 500 futures roughly flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures modestly negative in early North American trade, pointing to a cautious tone into the US open. ^[8]

That lines up with live coverage from US outlets noting that:

Wall Street is on track to end a turbulent week,
AI valuation worries remain front and centre, and
Bitcoin has slipped below the US$86,000 mark amid waning optimism for near‑term Fed cuts. ^[9]

Europe and Asia: mixed signals

Overseas, the picture is uneven:

European equities mostly finished higher on Thursday, with the DAX, CAC 40 and several regional indices in the green, while the FTSE 100 lagged. ^[10]
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank about 2.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed, reflecting ongoing volatility in both global growth and China‑related sentiment. ^[11]

Commodities: headwind for resource stocks

Resource prices are another key input for the TSX open:

WTI crude futures trade around US$57–58 per barrel, down just over 2% in early action. ^[12]
Brent crude is off more than 1%, and
Gold and silver futures are down about 1–3%, extending a recent pullback in precious metals. ^[13]

That backdrop is normally a mild negative for energy and gold miners, two heavyweight groups on the TSX.

3. The Loonie, Rates and the Bank of Canada

Canadian dollar under pressure

The Canadian dollar has had an eventful week:

On Nov. 17, it hit a 10‑day low as October inflation eased to 2.2%, stoking speculation that the Bank of Canada can stay on hold longer. ^[14]
On Nov. 18, it logged its biggest rally in three months after Parliament narrowly approved Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget, avoiding another election and providing a dose of political stability. ^[15]
On Nov. 19, the loonie then fell about 0.5% to around 1.4060 per US dollar, its steepest one‑day drop since July, as oil slid and the cancellation of a key US jobs report undermined hopes for a December Fed rate cut. ^[16]

Combined with weaker crude, that leaves the currency slightly fragile going into today’s open, which matters for:

Export‑heavy sectors like energy, metals and manufacturing, and
Foreign investor appetite for Canadian assets.

Bank of Canada: productivity “vicious circle” and today’s survey

In a widely‑watched speech this week, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent warned that Canada is stuck in a “vicious circle” of weak productivity, with growth now running below 0.5% annually. ^[17]

The message:

Structural productivity issues limit how fast incomes can grow without reigniting inflation.
That, in turn, constrains how aggressively the BoC can cut rates once the current inflation battle is won.

Today at 10:30 a.m. ET, the Bank will publish its Senior Loan Officer Survey, an important read‑through on credit conditions and lending standards. ^[18]

A tightening in credit could weigh on banks and rate‑sensitive sectors (real estate, consumer discretionary).
A stabilization or easing would support the “soft‑landing” narrative and could be mildly positive for financials.

4. Key Data on the Calendar: Canada Retail Sales

Canada’s data slate today is short but important.

Canada: Retail Sales (September, 8:30 a.m. ET)

Scotiabank and BMO calendars highlight Canadian retail sales for September at 8:30 a.m. ET as the main domestic release for November 21. ^[19]

Why it matters for the TSX:

Stronger‑than‑expected sales would bolster the case that consumer demand is holding up, good for banks, retailers, telcos and grocers.
A weak print would reinforce concerns that higher borrowing costs are slowly cooling the economy – bearish for cyclicals, but potentially supportive of rate‑cut expectations.

US data: sentiment and macro tone

The same calendars flag U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final, 10:00 a.m. ET) and other US data points, which will shape the global risk tone that often filters into afternoon trading on Bay Street. ^[20]

5. Stocks and Sectors to Watch on the TSX

a) Energy & infrastructure

Cenovus Energy (TSX: CVE)
- Cenovus has closed a C$2.6 billion multi‑tranche senior notes offering in Canada and the US, including both CAD and USD‑denominated issues maturing between 2031 and 2036. ^[21]
- Proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt, which could improve the company’s maturity profile and interest costs over time.
- With oil prices under pressure this morning, traders will watch whether balance‑sheet strengthening is enough to offset commodity headwinds.
SECURE Waste Infrastructure (TSX: SES)
- The company announced the closing of a C$300 million senior unsecured note financing, reinforcing its funding base. ^[22]
- The move comes against a backdrop of volatile energy prices and ongoing focus on ESG and waste‑management services in the patch.
Birchcliff Energy (TSX: BIR)
- Birchcliff received TSX approval to renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), allowing repurchases of a portion of outstanding shares. ^[23]
- Buyback capacity often supports valuation on pullbacks, especially when commodity prices are choppy.

Overall, with WTI and Brent both weaker this morning, the energy complex may open softer, but capital‑markets activity (CVE, SES) and buybacks (BIR) could create stock‑specific opportunities. ^[24]

b) Real estate, retail and consumer names

North West Company (TSX: NWC)
- North West announced that the TSX has accepted its notice to renew a normal course issuer bid for a portion of its common and variable voting shares. ^[25]
- That’s a vote of confidence in valuation and cash‑flow resilience for a retailer serving northern and remote communities – and it comes just hours before the retail‑sales print.
Boardwalk REIT (TSX: BEI.UN)
- Boardwalk said the TSX has approved renewal of its NCIB, following purchases of 775,079 units under the prior program that ran through November 21, 2025. ^[26]
- Buyback flexibility could help cushion the units if rate‑sensitive REITs remain under pressure.
Choice Properties REIT (TSX: CHP.UN)
- Choice Properties likewise received TSX approval to launch a new NCIB starting today, allowing purchases of up to roughly 10% of its public float over the next 12 months. ^[27]

Taken together, the cluster of REIT and consumer‑facing NCIBs suggests management teams see value in their own shares after a tough period for rate‑sensitive names.

c) Metals & mining: focus on Vizsla and juniors

Thursday’s drop in the TSX was driven largely by miners, and that theme may continue into today’s open. ^[28]

Key names to watch:

Vizsla Silver (TSX: VZLA)
- The company priced a US$250 million offering of convertible senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an option for an additional US$50 million. ^[29]
- Multiple reports note that shares fell sharply – around the mid‑teens in percentage terms – in pre‑market and subsequent trading as investors digested dilution risk and the size of the capital raise. ^[30]
- TSX‑listed Vizsla will remain a volatility hotspot, especially with silver under pressure.
Montauk Metals (TSX‑V: MTK)
- Montauk announced a corporate assignment into bankruptcy, with regulators expected to suspend trading and cease‑trade orders anticipated. The company explicitly warned of no potential for shareholder value recovery. ^[31]
- This underscores the elevated risk profile in small‑cap exploration names after a tough stretch for junior miners.
Lupaka Gold (TSX‑V: LPK)
- Lupaka provided an update on an international arbitration award, noting that its legal and financing partners remain involved until proceeds are received. ^[32]
- Any progress on monetizing that award could be a near‑term catalyst for the stock.
Andina Copper (TSX‑V: ANDC, upcoming)
- Andina Copper announced it will begin trading on the TSX Venture Exchange on Monday, November 24, and delist from the Canadian Securities Exchange after today’s close. ^[33]
- That transition may drive positioning and liquidity trades into today’s session.

With metals prices soft and Thursday’s selloff fresh, the mining complex is likely to remain at the centre of TSX volatility today. ^[34]

d) Financials & fixed income

Power Corporation (TSX: POW)
- Power Corp announced closing of a preferred share issue, adding to its capital markets activity and giving investors more yield‑oriented instruments tied to the conglomerate. ^[35]
RBC Target 2027 Canadian Corporate Bond Index ETF (TSX: RQP)
- The RBC bond ETF goes ex‑dividend today, with a trailing 12‑month yield in the mid‑3% range and a one‑year total return around 5%. ^[36]
- It’s one of several target‑maturity bond vehicles that may see repositioning as investors weigh the path of rates. ^[37]
Banks and insurers pre‑market
- Pre‑market indications on major TSX components from Markets Insider show modest bid‑side strength in Royal Bank, Manulife, Enbridge and other large caps, hinting that some investors are buying the dip after Thursday’s index slide. ^[38]

Combine that with today’s Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey, and financials will be a key swing sector at the open. ^[39]

e) Smaller TSX / TSX‑V stories

If you trade or follow Canadian small and mid caps, a few additional names are on the radar:

Organto Foods (TSX‑V: OGO) – reported strong Q3 2025 revenue growth and a strengthened balance sheet, and has also begun trading on the OTCQX in the US, expanding its investor reach. ^[40]
Atlas Salt (TSX‑V: SALT) – now trading on the OTCQX under the symbol SALQF, which could improve US visibility and liquidity. ^[41]
CoTec Holdings (TSX‑V: CTH) – filed Q3 financial statements and MD&A, giving investors fresh visibility into its mining‑technology and critical‑materials strategy. ^[42]
BioSyent (TSX‑V: RX) – released Q3 and year‑to‑date results yesterday; its update highlights revenue trends in specialty pharmaceuticals and will be watched by small‑cap healthcare investors. ^[43]

These names may not move the index, but they matter for liquidity and sentiment in Canada’s growth‑oriented segments.

6. What Traders Should Watch at the Open

To sum it up, here are the top things to monitor as the Canadian market opens today:

Reaction to Canada’s Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET)
- Strong data could support banks, retailers and telcos.
- Weak data would likely pressure cyclicals but may reinforce the case for eventual BoC easing. ^[44]
Follow‑through in miners and tech after Thursday’s selloff
- Materials and tech led the drop, with miners particularly hard‑hit.
- Watch whether bargain‑hunting emerges or whether selling accelerates, especially in silver and copper names. ^[45]
Energy names vs. weaker oil prices
- WTI and Brent are both lower, but Cenovus, Birchcliff and SECURE have fresh corporate news that could drive stock‑specific moves. ^[46]
Credit conditions and banks after the BoC survey (10:30 a.m. ET)
- Any sign of tightening lending standards could weigh on banks, REITs and housing‑linked names. ^[47]
Vizsla Silver and high‑beta miners
- The US$250 million convertible offering and the stock’s sharp drop make VZLA one of the most closely watched high‑beta plays in today’s session. ^[48]
Currency moves in the loonie
- With the Canadian dollar coming off both a strong rally and a sharp slide this week, any renewed weakness (or strength) will feed directly into exporters and rate expectations. ^[49]

As always, this overview is for information and news purposes only and not investment advice. If you’re trading around today’s open, keep an eye on live data, updated headlines, and your own risk tolerance.

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