Ross Stores stock jumps toward record highs after beating third‑quarter estimates, raising full‑year guidance, and attracting fresh analyst upgrades and institutional buying.
Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) is surging on November 21, 2025 after a strong Q3 2025 earnings beat, a higher full‑year profit outlook, new analyst price‑target hikes, and a bigger stake from Vanguard. Here’s what it means for ROST stock today.
On Friday, November 21, 2025, shares of Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) are trading sharply higher after the off‑price retailer delivered a standout third quarter, lifted its full‑year profit outlook, and prompted a wave of fresh analyst and institutional interest.
As of early afternoon trading, ROST changes hands at about $167.35, up roughly 4.3% on the day, putting the stock near a new 52‑week high after closing around $160.50 previously.
Key takeaways for November 21, 2025
- Q3 2025 EPS of $1.58 beat Wall Street estimates of around $1.41–$1.42 and rose from $1.48 a year ago.
- Revenue climbed 10% year over year to $5.6 billion, with same‑store sales up 7%, far above expectations of about 4%. [1]
- Management raised full‑year 2025 EPS guidance to $6.38–$6.46 (from $6.08–$6.21), despite roughly $0.16 per share of tariff drag expected this year. [2]
- For the holiday‑heavy fourth quarter, Ross now sees comparable sales up 3–4% and EPS of $1.77–$1.85. [3]
- Vanguard Group boosted its Ross stake by 14.8% in Q2, now owning about 11.98% of the company (39.2 million shares), worth roughly $5 billion. [4]
- On Friday morning, Telsey Advisory Group, Baird, and UBS all raised their price targets on ROST, with new targets ranging from $169 to $182 and ratings between Market Perform and Outperform. [5]
Q3 2025: Big beat on sales and earnings
Ross Stores’ third quarter, which ended November 1, 2025, showed that the off‑price model is still resonating strongly with value‑conscious shoppers.
According to the company’s earnings release and multiple financial news reports: [6]
- Net sales reached $5.6 billion, up about 10% from approximately $5.1 billion a year earlier.
- Comparable store sales grew 7%, more than double typical analyst forecasts in the mid‑single‑digit range. [7]
- Net income increased to roughly $512 million from about $489 million in Q3 2024. [8]
- Diluted EPS came in at $1.58, up from $1.48 last year and well above consensus estimates around $1.41–$1.42. [9]
Ross did all of this while absorbing about $0.05 per share in tariff‑related costs in the quarter, a headwind management has been flagging for several seasons. [10]
Operating performance was also solid beneath the headline numbers. Analysis of the quarter points to:
- Operating margin around 11.6%, roughly flat with last year but better than many analysts had modeled. [11]
- Healthy gross margin, helped by disciplined inventory buying and lower markdown rates.
- Continued leverage on selling, general and administrative expenses as sales scale higher.
In short, Ross grew faster than expected and did it without sacrificing profitability.
Stronger full‑year outlook and holiday guidance
The biggest story for investors today is how aggressively Ross lifted its outlook.
Based on the company’s updated guidance and subsequent coverage: [12]
- Full‑year 2025 EPS is now projected at $6.38–$6.46, versus a prior range of $6.08–$6.21.
- Management still expects about $0.16 per share of tariff‑related pressure for the year, meaning underlying profit power is even stronger.
- Fourth‑quarter EPS is forecast between $1.77 and $1.85, up from a previous range of $1.74–$1.81.
- The company raised its holiday‑quarter comp‑sales outlook to 3–4%, from 2–3% previously.
In interviews and press commentary, CEO Jim Conroy credited the beat and raised view to: [13]
- A sharper mix of branded, fashion‑right merchandise.
- A new marketing campaign that has driven higher traffic and engagement.
- Strong back‑to‑school trends that flowed into early fall.
Ross enters the holiday period, in Conroy’s words, with “strong momentum” and a confident stance on inventory, store operations, and supply chain capacity. [14]
ROST stock today: near highs after a multi‑month run
Friday’s ~4% jump in ROST caps what has already been a strong three‑month stretch, during which the stock has outpaced the broader market and climbed roughly 10%, according to recent MarketWatch and other financial media reports. [15]
Several factors are driving today’s move:
- Earnings surprise – Both revenue and EPS topped expectations by a comfortable margin.
- Guidance hike – Investors tend to reward companies that confidently raise their outlooks, especially in a still‑uncertain consumer environment.
- Off‑price momentum – Ross’ bullish tone echoes similar optimism from rival TJX Companies, reinforcing the idea that bargain‑hunting is a durable trend, not a one‑off. [16]
At around $167 per share, Ross trades at roughly 25–26 times forward earnings, near the upper end of its recent valuation range. [17]
Analysts race to lift price targets
Wall Street was quick to respond to the stronger‑than‑expected quarter and raised outlook, with several notable calls hitting the tape on November 21:
- UBS raised its price target to $169 from $163, maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm expects Ross to grow EPS at about a 5.5% compound annual rate over the next five years but notes the stock is already trading at a rich multiple and is “crowded” among institutional investors. [18]
- Telsey Advisory Group bumped its target to $175 from $160 while keeping a Market Perform rating, citing Ross’ execution and improving same‑store trends. [19]
- Baird went even further, lifting its target to $182 from $170 and reiterating an Outperform rating, reflecting growing confidence in Ross’ ability to drive profitable growth. [20]
UBS also highlighted that Evercore ISI recently boosted its Ross target to $195 with an Outperform rating after the Q3 print, pointing to stronger‑than‑expected margin flow‑through. [21]
Taken together, the latest moves push the street’s average 12‑month target into the high‑$160s, with the most bullish calls now in the low‑$190s, according to aggregated analyst data. [22]
Vanguard ups its bet on Ross
In a separate piece of news dated November 21, Vanguard Group Inc. disclosed a significantly larger position in Ross Stores. [23]
Key details from the latest 13F filing analysis:
- Vanguard increased its stake by 14.8% in Q2, acquiring about 5.06 million additional shares.
- The fund now holds 39.18 million shares, roughly 11.98% of Ross’ outstanding stock, valued near $5.0 billion at recent prices.
- Institutional ownership of Ross is high overall, approaching 87–90% across major funds and asset managers. [24]
At the same time, recent filings show insiders have sold around 52,000–53,000 shares over the past three months, including sales by CEO James Grant Conroy and the company’s chief marketing officer. Those disposals are modest relative to overall ownership but are being watched closely in light of the stock’s climb to new highs. [25]
Off‑price model still in favor
Ross’ Q3 performance is the latest signal that off‑price retail is one of the winners in a choppy consumer landscape:
- Budget‑conscious shoppers are trading down from department stores and full‑price specialty retailers, but still want branded apparel and home goods.
- Ross’ “treasure hunt” experience and everyday discounts of roughly 20–60% off department‑store prices continue to attract traffic. [26]
- Despite lapsed pandemic‑era SNAP benefits and ongoing tariff uncertainty, lower‑income consumers have held up better than many feared, according to external retail analysts quoted in recent coverage. [27]
As of the end of the quarter, Ross operated 2,273 stores across its Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS banners, up from 2,192 a year earlier, making it the largest off‑price apparel and home fashion chain in the U.S. [28]
Management has emphasized continued opportunity to expand in underpenetrated regions, particularly in the Southeast and Midwest, while core large markets like California, Florida and Texas are performing in line with the chain average. [29]
Risks: tariffs, consumer spending and rich valuation
Despite today’s upbeat tone, there are still clear risks that investors and industry watchers are monitoring:
- Tariffs: While the impact is expected to be minimal in Q4, Ross still faces $0.16 per share in tariff‑related costs for FY 2025 and could see further pressure if trade policy tightens. [30]
- Lower‑income consumer health: Ross’ core shopper is value‑oriented and more exposed to macro headwinds like higher rents, student loans and any further reduction in government support. [31]
- Valuation: With ROST trading near its historical high multiples, some analysts and quantitative models warn that upside from here may be more limited, especially if growth normalizes. [32]
What today’s news means for investors and watchers
For now, the message from the market is clear:
- Ross executed extremely well in Q3,
- raised the bar for the rest of the year, and
- is entering the critical holiday season with momentum, clean inventories and a loyal, value‑focused customer base.
Whether that justifies chasing the stock at current levels will depend on each investor’s risk tolerance, time horizon and view on the broader consumer economy. What’s not in doubt is that Ross Stores has firmly re‑established itself as one of the standout stories in brick‑and‑mortar retail heading into the end of 2025.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. m.investing.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketscreener.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.fibre2fashion.com, 14. www.fibre2fashion.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.gurufocus.com, 18. m.investing.com, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. www.gurufocus.com, 21. m.investing.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.businesswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. www.insidermonkey.com, 30. www.gurufocus.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.gurufocus.com
