BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock News Today, November 22, 2025: Wall Street Sticks to “Hold” as Defense AI Bets Collide With Valuation Jitters

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) stays firmly in the market spotlight this weekend after a week of violent share-price swings, fresh deals in defense and aerospace, and a new round of analyst commentary that, taken together, paint a picture of “promising but prove‑it.”

Today’s headline: Wall Street’s latest update gives BigBear.ai a consensus rating of “Hold” with modest upside from current levels, even as new reports warn about rich valuations, insider selling, and ongoing losses. ^[1]

Quick Take: What’s New Around BBAI as of November 22, 2025

Consensus rating: 5 covering firms now rate BigBear.ai a Hold overall (1 Sell, 2 Hold, 2 Buy), with an average 12‑month price target of $6.33. ^[2]
Share price & volatility: Shares closed around $5.42 on Friday, November 21, down 1.6% on the day, giving the company a market cap near $2.37 billion and a 52‑week range of $2.02–$10.36. ^[3]
Performance: Depending on the source and exact dates, BBAI is up roughly 120–150% over the past 12 months, but down around 18–24% over the past month as investors question valuation. ^[4]
Q3 2025 results: Revenue fell 20% year‑over‑year to $33.1 million, with negative adjusted EBITDA of about –$9.4 million, but GAAP net income turned positive largely due to non‑cash derivative revaluations. ^[5]
Major deal: BigBear.ai plans to acquire Ask Sage, a defense‑focused generative AI platform, for $250 million, with Ask Sage expected to generate about $25 million in 2025 ARR, ~6x its 2024 run‑rate. ^[6]
New strategic MOU: On November 20, the company announced a Memorandum of Understanding to help build Pahang Aerospace City, billed as Southeast Asia’s first AI‑driven aerospace hub. ^[7]
Key risk themes: High price‑to‑sales multiple versus peers, continued operating losses, heavy volatility, insider stock sales, and an ongoing shareholder lawsuit all feature in this week’s commentary. ^[8]

Where BBAI Stock Stands After a Wild 2025

After a blistering rally earlier this year, BigBear.ai has slipped into “show me” territory.

TipRanks notes that the stock is up around 120% over the past year, driven by stronger‑than‑expected Q3 numbers and enthusiasm for AI used in defense and government programs. More recently, though, BBAI has pulled back about 18% over the past month as broader market weakness and valuation concerns hit AI names. ^[9]

MarketBeat’s latest trading snapshot for Friday, November 21 shows BBAI: ^[10]

Closing near $5.42, off 1.6% on the day
Market capitalization about $2.37 billion
P/E ratio of roughly –3.8, reflecting continued losses
Debt‑to‑equity around 0.18 and current/quick ratios above 3, indicating a relatively strong liquidity position
52‑week low of $2.02 and high near $10.36, underlining extreme volatility

Retail platforms and community feeds like Stocktwits also show BBAI trading in the mid‑$5 range with extremely heavy volume—tens of millions of shares per day—underscoring just how speculative the name has become. ^[11]

Today’s Headline: Street Consensus Settles on “Hold”

Brokerages converge on a cautious stance

A fresh MarketBeat update published today says BigBear.ai now carries a consensus “Hold” rating from the five firms covering the stock: one rates it a Sell, two call it a Hold, and two rate it a Buy. ^[12]

Key details from that report: ^[13]

Average 12‑month price target: about $6.33, implying single‑digit to low‑double‑digit percentage upside from recent prices.
Notable targets:
- Cantor Fitzgerald: $7 with an overweight rating
- HC Wainwright: $8 with a buy rating
- Weiss Ratings: sell (grade “D‑”)
Earnings snapshot: Q3 EPS came in at –$0.07, a penny worse than the –$0.06 consensus estimate, while revenue of $33.14 million beat expectations (~$31.8 million) but fell 20.1% versus last year.

The same data set implies Wall Street expects full‑year 2025 EPS around –$0.28, highlighting that, even with a one‑off net profit this quarter, BigBear.ai is still projected to lose money for the year. ^[14]

TipRanks: “Cautiously optimistic” but valuation is the sticking point

Two new TipRanks pieces frame the debate investors are having this weekend: ^[15]

One article notes that BBAI stock has declined about 24% over the past month amid worries that its valuation ran too far ahead of fundamentals—even as the company signed a high‑profile aerospace AI MOU in Malaysia.
Another asks where BBAI might go after a roughly 120% 12‑month rally, concluding that Wall Street is “cautiously optimistic” with an average price target implying ~21% upside from mid‑$5 levels.

Both pieces acknowledge that Q3 revenue fell 20% but beat expectations, while the net loss per share narrowed to –$0.03 vs –$0.07 expected on some measures, reinforcing the narrative that BigBear.ai is tightening execution even as it remains loss‑making on an adjusted basis. ^[16]

Fundamentals After Q3 2025: Growth Story vs. Current Numbers

BigBear.ai’s own November 10 earnings release shows a company in transition: ^[17]

Revenue:
- Q3 2025: $33.1 million
- Q3 2024: $41.5 million
- Down ~20% year‑over‑year, mainly due to lower volume on certain U.S. Army programs.
Gross margin: slipped to 22.4% from 25.9% a year earlier.
GAAP net income: swung to a $2.5 million profit vs. a $15.1 million loss a year ago—driven largely by non‑cash changes in the value of convertible notes and warrants, not by core operations.
Adjusted EBITDA:–$9.4 million, versus +$0.9 million in Q3 2024, reflecting weaker gross profit and higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses.
SG&A: jumped to $25.3 million from $17.5 million, with the company citing increased marketing, strategic initiatives, and higher labor costs.
Backlog: about $376 million as of September 30, 2025, giving some visibility into future revenue.
Cash position: a record $456.6 million on the balance sheet, according to the release, giving management firepower for acquisitions and growth.

Despite the top‑line contraction, management reaffirmed full‑year 2025 revenue guidance of $125–$140 million, and stressed that underlying demand from defense and border‑security customers remains robust even after temporary contract delays. ^[18]

Ask Sage Deal: A Big Swing at Secure Generative AI

A major pillar of the BigBear.ai story now is its planned acquisition of Ask Sage, announced alongside Q3 earnings.

According to the company: ^[19]

Ask Sage is a generative AI platform built for secure government and highly regulated environments, already serving over 100,000 users across 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial customers.
BigBear.ai agreed to pay $250 million for the business, subject to customary adjustments.
Ask Sage is expected to deliver ~$25 million in 2025 annual recurring revenue (ARR) on a non‑GAAP basis, roughly 6x its 2024 ARR.
Closing is expected late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, and management does not expect the acquisition to materially affect 2025 financial results.

The strategic idea is to merge BigBear.ai’s “mission‑ready” analytics and modeling with Ask Sage’s secure generative AI and agentic capabilities, creating an integrated platform that defense and national‑security agencies can use without exposing sensitive data to open cloud models. ^[20]

Several analysts and research shops—including The Motley Fool and Simply Wall St—have highlighted this deal as the key factor in whether BBAI can evolve from a niche government contractor into a broader “mini‑Palantir”‑style platform player. ^[21]

Strategic Moves: Pahang Aerospace City, NSA Deal, and Biometric Roll‑outs

Beyond the numbers, BigBear.ai has stacked up a series of deals that reinforce its positioning in defense, border security, and critical infrastructure.

Pahang Aerospace City MOU (Malaysia)

On November 20, BigBear.ai announced a Memorandum of Understanding with Pahang Aerospace City Development Berhad, along with partners Easy Lease and Vigilix, signed at the Dubai Airshow. ^[22]

Highlights from that release:

The collaboration aims to help build Pahang Aerospace City into Southeast Asia’s first AI‑driven aerospace hub, integrating aviation, space, digital mobility, and predictive AI.
BigBear.ai will focus on AI‑driven border operations and security analytics for the broader aerospace city ecosystem.
Company leadership framed the alliance as creating a “global innovation corridor” connecting Malaysia, the UAE, and the U.S., and as a key step in BigBear.ai’s push into Southeast Asia.

While MOUs are not the same as binding contracts, the announcement bolsters the story that BigBear.ai’s technology can travel beyond U.S. defense circles into international smart‑city and aerospace projects. ^[23]

Five‑Year NSA‑Linked Deal and DoD Adoption

A brief TradingView item this week flagged another important piece of the puzzle: BigBear.ai’s subsidiary PCI recently signed a five‑year deal with the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and is working with the Defense Innovation Unit and the U.S. Navy. The company’s VANE platform is also now active within the U.S. Department of Defense’s Chief Digital and AI Office. ^[24]

That kind of embedded presence in high‑security environments tends to be sticky and could feed the company’s backlog for years if it executes well.

Biometric Identity at Chicago O’Hare

On October 23, BigBear.ai announced deployment of its veriScan™ biometric identity platform at Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) in partnership with U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Enhanced Passenger Processing (EPP) program. ^[25]

Key points from that release: ^[26]

The system helps confirm travelers’ identities in real time using AI‑enabled biometrics.
CBP data cited in the release indicate that EPP deployments have cut average processing times from about 60 seconds to 10 seconds per traveler at participating airports.
CEO Kevin McAleenan emphasized that “border security starts with trusted identity,” positioning BigBear.ai as a key player at the intersection of national security and travel efficiency.

Taken together, the Malaysia aerospace project, NSA‑related deployments, and biometric roll‑outs create a pipeline of use cases that go well beyond one‑off contracts, strengthening BigBear’s pitch as a platform company for critical infrastructure and security rather than just a traditional IT contractor. ^[27]

How the Market Is Valuing BigBear.ai Right Now

Even after its recent pullback, BigBear.ai trades at a valuation that sharply divides opinion.

A Simply Wall St valuation note from November 20 frames two competing narratives: ^[28]

“Undervalued by ~13%” vs. consensus fair value
- Their most followed narrative pegs BigBear.ai’s fair value at roughly $6.33 per share, about 13% above a recent closing price around $5.51.
- That narrative assumes high growth powered by strategic alliances and acquisitions (like Ask Sage) and increasing government spending on AI‑enabled defense and infrastructure.
“Expensive on price‑to‑sales” vs. peers
- By their calculation, BBAI trades at a price‑to‑sales ratio around 16.7x, compared with about 2.4x for the broader U.S. IT sector and 0.5x for certain closer peers.
- In that framing, the stock carries a steep premium that leaves little room for execution missteps.

Other coverage echoes these worries. A TS2.tech analysis of Friday’s sell‑off notes that: TechStock²+2Quiver Quantitative+2

Institutional investors like BlackRock and Vanguard have significantly built positions in 2025, signaling confidence from “big money.”
At the same time, insiders have executed multiple open‑market stock sales over the last six months with no matching insider buys, according to QuiverQuant and SEC data.
A shareholder class‑action lawsuit, filed earlier this year by Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP, alleges that the company misled investors—claims that have not been proven but add a governance overhang.

QuiverQuant’s dashboards also highlight: ^[29]

Six insider trades in the last six months—all sales, none purchases
Significant hedge‑fund churn, with over 200 institutions adding BBAI and more than 100 trimming or exiting positions
At least one member of the U.S. House of Representatives purchasing BBAI shares in mid‑2025

On top of this, the existence of a 2x leveraged ETF (BAIG) that tracks BBAI’s daily performance underscores how popular the stock has become with short‑term traders and how sharp its daily moves can be. ^[30]

Key Numbers Investors Are Watching as of November 22, 2025

Here are the metrics most frequently cited in this week’s coverage: ^[31]

Last close (Nov 21, 2025): ≈ $5.42
Market cap: ≈ $2.37 billion
52‑week range:$2.02 – $10.36
1‑year total return: roughly +120% to +150%, depending on the source and time window
1‑month performance: roughly –18% to –24%
Q3 2025 revenue:$33.1 million (–20% YoY)
Q3 2025 GAAP net income:$2.5 million (boosted by non‑cash items)
Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA: about –$9.4 million
Year‑end 2025 revenue guidance:$125–$140 million
Backlog: ≈ $376 million
Cash balance (Sep 30, 2025): ≈ $456.6 million
Ask Sage deal:$250 million purchase price, targeting $25 million 2025 ARR
Street rating:Consensus “Hold”, average $6.33 12‑month price target

What to Watch Next

Looking beyond today’s headlines, investors and traders will be watching several catalysts over the coming weeks and months: ^[32]

Special Meeting of Stockholders – December 1, 2025
- BigBear.ai’s IR page lists a special meeting in early December. Any shareholder votes tied to capital structure, incentives, or the Ask Sage transaction will be scrutinized closely.
Regulatory approvals and closing of the Ask Sage acquisition
- Timely closing—and early signs of integration progress—will be key to justifying the acquisition price and the lofty growth narrative attached to it.
New contract wins or expansions
- Follow‑on work related to the NSA deal, Pahang Aerospace City, and CBP’s biometric program could materially influence backlog and investor confidence.
Margins and adjusted profitability
- With revenue under pressure, markets will want to see clear progress on gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, not just GAAP profits driven by accounting revaluations.
Litigation and governance updates
- Any developments in the shareholder lawsuit, or further insider selling/buying activity, could swing sentiment quickly.
AI‑stock sentiment and macro backdrop
- As a high‑beta AI small‑cap, BBAI tends to amplify broader risk‑on/risk‑off moves in the tech market; changes in interest‑rate expectations or AI‑valuation rhetoric can move the stock dramatically.

Bottom Line: High‑Beta Defense AI Play With a “Prove It” Mandate

As of November 22, 2025, BigBear.ai sits at the intersection of several powerful themes—defense AI, secure generative models, border security, and critical infrastructure modernization. The company’s backlog, cash balance, high‑profile government deployments, and the Ask Sage acquisition all support an ambitious long‑term story. ^[33]

At the same time, shrinking revenue, negative adjusted profitability, rich valuation metrics, insider selling, and legal overhangs are keeping the Street’s verdict at a cautious “Hold” rather than a full‑throated “Buy.” ^[34]

For long‑term investors, BBAI represents a high‑risk, high‑volatility bet that BigBear.ai can execute on its platform strategy and convert government and aerospace partnerships into durable, profitable growth. For short‑term traders, it remains a name where timing and risk management matter as much as the underlying story.

Important: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. TechStock²

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