Summary: Ford Motor Company stock climbed on Friday after the automaker stood by its 2025 profit guidance despite another fire at a key aluminum supplier, reassuring investors that earnings and cash flow targets remain intact. [1]
- Closing price: $12.83, up about 3.4% on the day [2]
- 2025 guidance: Adjusted EBIT still targeted at $6.0–$6.5 billion and free cash flow of $2–$3 billion [3]
- Positioning: Ford trades at roughly 11× trailing earnings, below the vehicles & parts industry median near 20×, and offers a dividend yield of roughly 4.7%. [4]
All figures are as of the close on Friday, November 21, 2025, unless otherwise noted.
Ford stock today: price snapshot
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) ended Friday’s session at $12.83, gaining about 3.4% and snapping a two‑day losing streak. [5]
Key trading stats for the day: [6]
- Open: $12.51
- High / Low: $12.94 / $12.49
- Close: $12.83
- Intraday change: +$0.42 (+3.38%)
- Volume: ~74 million shares, slightly below the 50‑day average of about 103 million shares
Ford’s share price is now roughly 8% below its 52‑week high of $13.97, set on October 24, and comfortably above the 52‑week low of $8.44. [7]
On a longer view, data from MarketBeat and other trackers show: [8]
- 5‑day performance: about ‑0.6%
- 1‑month performance: roughly +3%
- Year‑to‑date (YTD): around +30%
- 1‑year total return: about +15%
- Market cap: approximately $51.1 billion
That combination – a strong year but still under the recent high – helps explain why Friday’s move drew attention from traders watching whether Ford has more room to run.
Why Ford stock is up today: guidance holds despite supplier fire
Friday’s rally was driven largely by reassuring guidance.
Ford confirmed that, despite yet another fire this week at the Novelis aluminum plant in New York, it is maintaining its 2025 adjusted EBIT outlook at $6.0–$6.5 billion. [9]
According to a Reuters report and related coverage: [10]
- A second fire hit the Novelis facility that supplies aluminum for Ford’s truck lineup, including the F‑150 and all‑electric F‑150 Lightning.
- Ford previously cut guidance in October after a more severe blaze at the same plant, estimating a gross impact of up to $2 billion tied to lost production.
- The company now expects to recover around $1 billion of those losses in 2026 by boosting truck output once supply normalizes.
- Management reiterated that, despite the latest incident, 2025 EBIT and free‑cash‑flow (FCF) targets are unchanged, and other communications have indicated no expected hit to EBITDA or FCF from the new fire.
Investors interpreted this as a sign that the disruption is manageable rather than existential, especially given Ford’s ability to flex production and its long‑standing relationships with suppliers. The roughly 3–4% gain on the day outpaced the broader market: the S&P 500 rose about 1.0%, while the Dow Jones gained about 1.1%. [11]
In short, Friday’s move was a relief rally: the worst‑case scenario around the supplier fire appears off the table – at least based on what investors know today.
Earnings backdrop: record Q3 2025 and solid cash generation
Today’s action sits on top of a very strong Q3.
In its third‑quarter 2025 results, Ford reported: [12]
- Revenue: $50.5 billion, up about 9% year‑over‑year
- EPS: $0.45 vs analyst estimates around $0.35
- Adjusted EBIT: $2.6 billion (roughly flat year‑over‑year)
- Adjusted free cash flow: $4.3 billion in Q3, $5.7 billion year‑to‑date
- Cash & liquidity: nearly $33 billion in cash and $54 billion in total liquidity
Breaking it down by business unit, AlphaSense’s summary of the Q3 call highlights: [13]
- Ford Pro (commercial vehicles) generated $17.4 billion of revenue and $2.0 billion of EBIT, with double‑digit margins and low‑teens growth in both revenue and volume.
- Ford Blue (traditional internal‑combustion vehicles) produced about $1.5 billion of EBIT with revenue growing faster than unit volumes – a sign of decent pricing and mix.
- Ford Model e (electric vehicles) is still loss‑making, with a year‑to‑date EBIT loss around $3.6 billion, but revenue and volume are growing, especially in Europe.
This mix – cash‑rich legacy and commercial operations funding loss‑making EV growth – is central to how investors view Ford. The Q3 numbers reinforced the idea that Ford can generate substantial cash even while it invests heavily in electrification, software, and new platforms.
Dividends: a near‑5% yield at today’s price
Alongside its Q3 results, Ford’s board declared a fourth‑quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on December 1, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 7. [14]
Assuming that quarterly payout continues:
- Annualised dividend: $0.60 per share
- Implied dividend yield at $12.83: about 4.7%
That puts Ford firmly in the high‑yield large‑cap camp – one of the main reasons the stock appears in many income‑oriented portfolios. The ex‑dividend date for this payment was earlier in November, so Friday’s buyers are looking ahead to future distributions, not the upcoming cheque. [15]
Valuation check: Ford still trades at a discount
Despite this year’s rally, Ford stock still trades at what many investors would call a “value” multiple.
According to data from several analytics providers: [16]
- Trailing P/E (TTM): ≈ 11×, based on a share price of $12.83 and trailing 12‑month diluted EPS of about $1.16
- Forward P/E: High single digits (around 9× based on consensus estimates)
- Industry comparison: The vehicles & parts industry sports a median P/E closer to 20×, implying Ford trades at a substantial discount to peers
GuruFocus data also show Ford’s P/E near its 10‑year median but well below the longer‑term average, and significantly cheaper than many global automakers. [17]
On an enterprise‑value basis, Simply Wall St and others estimate: [18]
- Market cap: about $51 billion
- Enterprise value: roughly $180+ billion, reflecting sizeable debt and lease obligations
- EV/Revenue: around 1×
- EV/EBITDA: reported near the high‑teens
Put together, Ford still screens as cheap vs. the broader equity market, but with the caveat that autos are a cyclical, capital‑intensive sector where low multiples are common – and not always a bargain.
How Ford stock has been performing
From a trend standpoint, Ford’s share price has quietly moved from “left‑for‑dead” levels to a more neutral zone over the past year.
Based on MarketBeat and Investing.com data: [19]
- 1‑year return: ~+14–15%
- YTD return: nearly +30%
- 5‑year return: around +45–47%, off a low base following prior downturns
Over the last couple of weeks, Ford has been choppy:
- From November 17 to November 21, the stock fell from about $13.19 to $12.83, a drop of roughly 2.7%, despite Friday’s bounce. [20]
- Friday’s close leaves the shares about 8% below the October 24 high of $13.97, but well above the $8–$9 levels seen earlier in the 52‑week range. [21]
In other words, momentum is positive but not euphoric: Ford is no longer a deep‑value outlier, but it’s also not priced like a high‑growth EV pure‑play.
Strategic drivers to watch: EVs, BlueOval City, tariffs and quality
1. EV strategy and BlueOval City
Ford is betting heavily on a balanced electrification strategy – pushing ahead on EVs where it sees real demand while leaning into hybrids and profitable trucks.
Some key data points:
- CarEdge’s real‑time sales tracking shows Mustang Mach‑E sales surging in early 2025, with a 45‑day running total of about 7,280 units in the U.S., up roughly 50% versus the prior two months. [22]
- Over the same timeframe, Ford sold around 4,600 F‑150 Lightnings across 45 days, with EV truck sales still a small fraction of gasoline F‑150 volumes but growing steadily. [23]
- BlueOval City, Ford’s massive Tennessee complex, is expected to start operations in 2025, producing electric pickup trucks (including the F‑150 Lightning) and EV batteries, with an estimated $5.6 billion project cost and about 5,800 jobs when fully ramped. [24]
Management has also teased a “Universal EV Platform” (UEV) aimed at more affordable, spacious EVs starting around the $30,000 price point, with launches targeted for 2027. [25]
The bull case: if Ford can scale EVs and hybrids without destroying margins in Ford Blue and Ford Pro, earnings could inflect higher later in the decade.
The bear case: Model e is still losing billions per year, and the global EV market is intensely competitive – especially from Chinese manufacturers with cost advantages. [26]
2. Tariffs and macro headwinds
Ford has been unusually exposed to tariff and trade policy in 2024–2025:
- Q2 2025 reporting from the Wall Street Journal estimated Ford took a hit of more than $800 million in tariffs in one quarter alone, resulting in its first quarterly loss since 2023 and prompting a cut to full‑year profit expectations. [27]
- On the Q3 call, management said tariff headwinds have eased somewhat but are still expected to be about $1 billion on a net basis in 2025, down from prior estimates of $2 billion. [28]
Persistent tariff costs, plus any slowdown in U.S. auto demand if interest rates stay high longer than expected, remain meaningful macro risks for Ford shareholders.
3. Quality and recalls
Quality issues and recalls have been a recurring theme for Ford:
- A mid‑2025 Barron’s report highlighted that Ford had issued around 89 recalls in the U.S. for the year to date, the most of any automaker, with warranty costs well above historical norms. [29]
Ford’s leadership has argued that the high recall count partly reflects a more proactive approach to addressing issues early, but there’s no question that quality improvements are central to restoring margins and investor confidence over the long term.
What today’s move could mean for investors
From a short‑term trading perspective, Friday’s jump suggests that the market:
- Views the Novelis fire as disruptive but not thesis‑breaking
- Is willing to pay a bit more for Ford as long as guidance holds and supply issues look temporary
- Still sees the shares as undervalued relative to earnings and cash flow, given the sub‑market P/E and hefty dividend yield
From a longer‑term investment standpoint, Ford stock increasingly looks like a “show‑me” story:
Positives for the bull camp:
- Solid cash generation from Ford Pro and Ford Blue, even as Ford invests in EVs and software. [30]
- Valuation around 11× trailing earnings and a nearly 5% dividend yield offer some downside cushion if profits hold up. [31]
- Tangible EV momentum in Mustang Mach‑E and F‑150 Lightning sales, plus future capacity from BlueOval City. [32]
Risks for the bear camp:
- EV operations are still deeply unprofitable, with Model e posting a multi‑billion‑dollar EBIT loss year‑to‑date. [33]
- Tariffs, supplier disruptions (like the Novelis fires), and elevated recall/warranty costs can easily erode margins. [34]
- Autos remain a cyclical, capital‑intensive business; low multiples may reflect structural risks rather than obvious mispricing.
Quick FAQ: Ford stock today
What is Ford’s stock price today?
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) closed at $12.83 on Friday, November 21, 2025, up about 3.4% on the day. [35]
Why is Ford stock up today?
Shares rose after Ford reaffirmed its 2025 profit guidance despite another fire at key supplier Novelis, signalling that management still expects to hit its adjusted EBIT and FCF targets. [36]
Is Ford stock cheap or expensive?
Ford trades at roughly 11× trailing earnings and a high‑single‑digit forward P/E, notably below the vehicles & parts industry median around 20×, and offers a dividend yield of about 4.7%. [37]
Is this article investment advice?
No. This is general news and analysis, not personalised financial advice. Ford stock – like any equity – can be volatile, and suitability depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio. Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.gurufocus.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.alpha-sense.com, 14. www.fromtheroad.ford.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.gurufocus.com, 17. www.gurufocus.com, 18. simplywall.st, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. caredge.com, 23. caredge.com, 24. en.wikipedia.org, 25. www.alpha-sense.com, 26. www.alpha-sense.com, 27. www.wsj.com, 28. www.alpha-sense.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.alpha-sense.com, 31. www.gurufocus.com, 32. caredge.com, 33. www.alpha-sense.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.gurufocus.com
