Boeing’s stock is back in focus after a powerful rebound in 2025 – and a fresh multibillion‑dollar hit to its flagship widebody program. With just weeks left in the year, investors are asking a simple question with a complicated answer: where can BA stock realistically go by the end of 2025, and what comes next?
As of 22 November 2025, Boeing (NYSE: BA) trades around $180 per share, giving the company a market cap in the mid‑$130 billions. [1] Shares are still well below their 52‑week high near $243 but up solidly from lows around $129 over the past year. [2]
Below, we break down the latest news, analyst forecasts, and key risks shaping the BA stock outlook through the end of 2025, using only currently available data and public commentary.
Key Takeaways for BA Stock Into Late 2025
- Operations are improving, profits are not. Q3 2025 revenue jumped 30% year‑over‑year to $23.3 billion with 160 jet deliveries – Boeing’s highest quarterly total since 2018 – but the company still posted a $5.3 billion net loss due largely to a $4.9 billion charge on the delayed 777X program. [3]
- Cash flow is better, but still negative for the year. Boeing generated $238 million of free cash flow in Q3, its first positive quarter since 2023, yet now expects about $2.5 billion of free cash flow usage for full‑year 2025. [4]
- Production of key jets is stabilizing. 737 MAX output is now 38 aircraft per month and cleared by the FAA to rise to 42 per month, while the 787 line has stabilized at seven per month. [5]
- Backlog and new orders support a long runway. Boeing’s total backlog stands around $636 billion, including more than 5,900 commercial airplanes, and recent deals at the Dubai Airshow added orders and commitments from flydubai, Gulf Air, Air Senegal and Ethiopian Airlines. [6]
- Wall Street is bullish but divided. Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster roughly between $235 and $260 per share, implying 30–40% upside from current levels – but individual targets range from about $113 on the low end to the high‑$270s on the bullish side. [7]
- Valuation is rich for a still‑unprofitable company. Boeing’s trailing P/E remains negative (around –13x), and EV/EBITDA is also negative, while forward P/E estimates are very high, reflecting a market that is paying for a future recovery rather than current earnings. [8]
Where BA Stock Stands Now
Share price and performance
- Recent price: ~$180 per share as of 22 November 2025. [9]
- 52‑week range: roughly $129 – $243. [10]
- Market cap: in the $130–150 billion range, depending on the day. [11]
- 2025 performance: by late October, Boeing stock was up about 20‑plus percent year‑to‑date, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the broader industrials sector over the past year. [12]
In other words, the market has already priced in a meaningful recovery from the worst of Boeing’s safety, strike and production crises—but not a full return to pre‑MAX or pre‑pandemic strength.
Valuation snapshot
Because Boeing is still losing money on a GAAP basis, traditional valuation ratios are messy:
- Trailing P/E: about –13x, reflecting ongoing losses. [13]
- Forward P/E: estimates vary widely by data provider but cluster in a very elevated range (often 70x+), simply because consensus expects only modest positive earnings in 2026 off a still‑depressed base. [14]
- Price‑to‑sales (P/S): roughly 1.7–2.0x on trailing revenue, a discount to many aerospace peers but not a “deep value” multiple. [15]
- Enterprise‑value‑to‑revenue: around 2.1x. [16]
- EV/EBITDA and EV/FCF: both negative, because EBITDA and free cash flow over the last twelve months remain below zero. [17]
This valuation profile reinforces a key point for any BA stock forecast into 2025: the story is still about turnaround and execution, not current profitability.
Boeing’s 2025 Fundamentals: Recovering Operations, Heavy Charges
Q3 2025 results: best deliveries since 2018, but a huge loss
In Q3 2025, Boeing reported: [18]
- Revenue: $23.3 billion, up 30% year‑over‑year.
- Commercial Airplanes revenue: $11.1 billion, up 49%, driven by 160 aircraft deliveries (the highest quarterly total since 2018).
- Net loss: about $5.3 billion, due largely to a $4.9 billion pre‑tax charge on the 777X widebody program after Boeing pushed first delivery to 2027 instead of 2026.
- Free cash flow:+$238 million in the quarter (non‑GAAP), Boeing’s first positive FCF quarter since late 2023.
- Backlog: roughly $636 billion, including over 5,900 commercial aircraft and about $76 billion in defense, space and security orders. [19]
So while headline earnings remain deeply negative, the underlying industrial engine is clearly running faster than a year ago.
2025 cash‑flow guidance: still a “use” year
On the Q3 call, new CFO Jesús Malavé updated Boeing’s outlook to a full‑year 2025 free cash flow usage of about $2.5 billion, an improvement from prior guidance of around $3 billion of cash burn. [20]
Key moving pieces:
- Q4 2025 is expected to be operationally cash‑flow positive before a roughly $700 million payment to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) tied to the 737 MAX criminal case. [21]
- Higher capital expenditures—now expected to be about $3 billion for the year—are funding future products and facility upgrades in places like St. Louis and Charleston. [22]
- Management describes 2026 as another “heavy use” year for cash, mainly because of the 777X delay; they expect program cash flow to remain negative through 2026 and improve in 2027, with 777X turning cash‑positive around 2029. [23]
For a BA stock forecast through the end of 2025, this means investors are still staring at negative full‑year cash flow today and at least one more cash‑hungry year ahead, even as deliveries and revenue improve.
Latest News Moving the BA Stock Forecast
1. Stabilizing 737 MAX & 787 production
Boeing’s near‑term equity story is still mostly about the health of its narrowbody and 787 widebody franchises.
Recent developments:
- The 737 MAX line stabilized at 38 aircraft per month in Q3 2025, and the FAA has now agreed to allow a ramp to 42 per month, a critical milestone after years of production caps tied to safety concerns. [24]
- In October 2025 alone, Boeing delivered 53 jets, including 39 737 MAX aircraft, bringing year‑to‑date deliveries to 493, putting the company on pace for its highest annual total since 2018. [25]
- The 787 program is running at seven jets per month, with 24 Dreamliners delivered in Q3 and only about 10 aircraft in older inventory that Boeing expects to clear by 2026. [26]
Both the 737 and 787 are sold out well into the next decade, according to management, helping underpin the massive backlog and giving some visibility to future cash flows if execution holds. [27]
2. 777X delay to 2027: short‑term pain, long‑term optionality
The Boeing 777X—a stretched, re‑engined successor to the 777—has long been seen as a key widebody profit driver. But Boeing has now pushed first delivery to 2027, adding yet another delay to a program already years behind schedule. [28]
Consequences for BA stock:
- The $4.9 billion Q3 charge battered reported earnings and highlighted the risk that more write‑downs could still surface if certification or production issues re‑emerge. [29]
- Management now expects another year of heavy 777X‑related cash outflows in 2026, with the program not reaching cash neutrality until around 2028–2029. [30]
- On the positive side, the reset creates a more realistic schedule, potentially reducing the odds of future “surprise” charges and giving customers more confidence in Boeing’s planning.
For forecasts through the end of 2025, the 777X is pure drag—it hurts earnings and cash, while actual delivery revenues won’t show up until 2027.
3. DOJ non‑prosecution agreement & lingering legal risk
The legal overhang from the 737 MAX crashes is evolving but not gone:
- On May 29, 2025, Boeing and the U.S. Department of Justice entered into a non‑prosecution agreement (NPA) resolving a renewed criminal case, with terms that include compliance commitments and financial penalties. [31]
- In November 2025, a federal court dismissed the charge following the NPA, but families of crash victims have vowed to appeal, keeping some legal uncertainty in the background. [32]
- Boeing’s Q3 call explicitly flagged an expected ~$700 million DOJ payment in Q4 2025, which swings operationally positive cash flow into negative territory on an absolute basis for the full year. [33]
From a stock‑forecast perspective, the NPA reduces the risk of an existential criminal outcome but doesn’t fully eliminate reputational or financial risk, especially if any new safety incidents occur.
4. Labor & supply chain: post‑strike Boeing and the Spirit deal
Boeing has faced significant labor and supplier disruption over the last two years:
- A massive 2024 machinists’ strike involving more than 33,000 workers in the Seattle area shut down key 737, 767 and 777 production lines for weeks before a new contract was ratified in November 2024. [34]
- In 2025, a smaller but still important strike has involved about 3,200 defense machinists in Missouri and Illinois, affecting military aircraft and weapons plants and forcing Boeing to lean on contingency staffing. [35]
On the supply‑chain side, Boeing has moved to re‑integrate Spirit AeroSystems, its key fuselage supplier:
- Spirit’s shareholders approved a $4.7 billion acquisition by Boeing, and the EU has now granted antitrust approval—subject to divestitures of certain Airbus‑related operations—while U.S. regulators are still reviewing the deal. [36]
- Boeing expects the deal to close around the end of 2025, after slipping from an initial “mid‑2025” target, underscoring the complexity of regulatory approvals. [37]
If Spirit is successfully absorbed, Boeing could gain tighter control over quality and schedules at the cost of near‑term integration expenses and additional balance‑sheet leverage—another lever in the BA stock story beyond 2025.
5. Strong order momentum and Middle East demand
Despite its troubles, Boeing continues to secure large commercial orders, especially at major air shows:
- At the Dubai Airshow in November 2025, flydubai signed an MoU for 75 new 737 MAX jets (with options for 75 more), while Gulf Air finalized an order for 15 additional 787 Dreamliners, building on a July commitment. [38]
- Air Senegal committed to nine 737‑8 jets, and Ethiopian Airlines announced plans to order 11 more 737 MAX aircraft, extending Boeing’s footprint in Africa. [39]
- Boeing’s latest market outlook projects that fleets in the Middle East will more than double by 2044, driven by tourism and hub growth, implying long‑term demand for both narrowbody and long‑haul widebody aircraft. [40]
These orders don’t fix 2025 cash flow on their own, but they support the idea that demand, not orders, is not the core problem—execution and program economics are.
Analyst BA Stock Forecasts Through Late 2025
Analysts almost uniformly treat BA as a multi‑year recovery trade, and their price targets reflect that.
Consensus and price‑target range
Across major platforms:
- StockAnalysis: 18 covering analysts show an average 12‑month price target of about $239.6, with a range from $140 (low) to $282 (high) and a “Strong Buy” consensus. [41]
- MarketWatch: lists an average target around $248.7 from about 27 analysts, with an overall “Overweight” recommendation. [42]
- TipRanks: shows an average target near $250.5, implying roughly 30–40% upside from current prices depending on the day. [43]
- ValueInvesting.io: reports an average 12‑month target around $258, or nearly 39% upside from its reference price. [44]
Individual analyst actions around the Q3 report underline both optimism and caution:
- UBS, JPMorgan, Bernstein and others maintain Buy or Strong Buy ratings with targets typically in the $240–275 range, in many cases trimming targets slightly after the 777X charge but keeping bullish stances. [45]
- At the same time, Wells Fargo has reiterated a Sell rating and a target around $113, warning that Boeing’s free cash flow is likely to fall short of Street expectations and arguing the stock could drop about 30% from prior levels. [46]
- BNP Paribas Exane recently initiated at Underperform with a $150 target, adding to the skeptical voices. [47]
The result is a BA stock forecast picture where the average looks bullish, but the distribution is wide—a classic sign of high uncertainty.
Earnings and revenue outlook
Analysts collectively expect Boeing’s financials to look much better on the surface by 2026, even if program‑level risks remain:
- Revenue 2025: consensus around $90–91 billion, up more than 35% vs. 2024.
- Revenue 2026: around $100 billion, implying ~11% growth. [48]
- EPS 2025: still negative on average (around –$8.60 per share).
- EPS 2026: turning positive, with average estimates around $2.6 per share. [49]
That swing—from deep losses in 2025 to modest profits in 2026—is precisely why forward P/E looks so stretched and why BA trades like a turnaround, not a value stock.
Scenario Thinking: Where Could BA Stock Trade by Year‑End 2025?
No one can predict where BA will close on 31 December 2025, and this is not a price target. But based on current information, several broad scenarios help frame the risk‑reward.
Bullish scenario (late‑2025 to early‑2026)
Conditions:
- Boeing hits or slightly beats its updated 2025 free cash flow usage target (~–$2.5B). [50]
- 737 and 787 production ramp smoothly toward higher rates with no new major safety incidents or quality scandals. [51]
- The Spirit acquisition closes without onerous additional concessions, and early integration looks manageable. [52]
- The DOJ NPA stays intact and legal noise gradually fades. [53]
In this world, investors could start to credit Boeing with executing on its backlog, and the stock could gravitate toward the lower end of current analyst target ranges (say, the low‑$200s) without needing everything to go perfectly. Whether that happens by 31 December or sometime in 2026 is more a matter of sentiment and macro conditions than pure fundamentals.
Base‑case “grind” scenario
Conditions:
- Boeing delivers roughly what it has guided for 2025: negative but improving free cash flow, stable mid‑30s to low‑40s monthly 737 output, and continued positive order flow. [54]
- The 777X program remains on its new 2027 timeline without additional mega‑charges. [55]
- The defense strike is resolved without major new cost overruns, and no new large programs go off the rails. [56]
In this base case, BA might trade sideways to modestly higher into year‑end 2025, with occasional sharp swings as investors react to each production or legal headline. The stock would likely continue to trade at a premium revenue multiple but a discounted “quality” multiple versus peers until consistent profitability returns.
Bearish scenario
Conditions:
- The company misses its cash‑flow targets—for example, if deliveries slip or new charges appear. [57]
- Additional safety or quality incidents trigger new FAA restrictions on 737 or 787 production. [58]
- Legal or regulatory issues around the DOJ NPA or 737 MAX cases escalate rather than fade. [59]
- A global air‑travel slowdown or airline financial stress leads to deferrals or cancellations.
Under such circumstances, bearish analysts like Wells Fargo—who already argue BA could fall 30% based on weaker free cash flow—could be closer to the mark, and the stock might revisit the $130s or even lower, especially if broader markets weaken. [60]
Key Drivers to Watch Into the End of 2025
If you’re following BA stock over the next few weeks and into early 2026, the most important data points are:
- Q4 2025 deliveries and cash flow
- Can Boeing finish the year with operationally positive free cash flow before the DOJ payment? [61]
- 737 and 787 production stability
- Look for confirmation that 42/month for 737 and higher 787 rates are sustainable without quality lapses or supply bottlenecks. [62]
- Spirit AeroSystems deal closure
- Regulatory approvals in the U.S. and final closing terms will determine how quickly Boeing can reshape its supply chain. [63]
- Labor negotiations in defense and other units
- A prolonged or expanded strike could crimp defense margins and delay deliveries, undercutting one of Boeing’s more stable segments. [64]
- Further clarity on 2026 guidance
- Investors will closely parse Boeing’s January 2026 update for explicit free cash flow targets and more detail on the path toward sustainable profitability. [65]
Is BA Stock a Buy, Hold or Avoid Into 2025? (General Information, Not Advice)
Putting it all together:
- Why bulls like it:
- Enormous $636 billion backlog, with 737 and 787 sold well into the next decade. [66]
- Improving deliveries and first positive free cash flow quarter since 2023. [67]
- Structural demand for jets as global traffic grows, especially in the U.S., Middle East and Asia. [68]
- Most Wall Street analysts still see 30–40% upside over 12 months, with a “Strong Buy” or equivalent consensus. [69]
- Why bears are skeptical:
- Boeing hasn’t posted a full‑year profit since 2018, and free cash flow is still negative in 2025. [70]
- The 777X delay and charge highlight ongoing execution risk and suggest 2026 will also be a heavy cash‑use year. [71]
- Legal and regulatory overhangs from the 737 MAX saga remain, even after the NPA. [72]
- Valuation is demanding for a company with negative earnings and cash flow, leaving little margin of safety if anything else goes wrong. [73]
Who BA might suit (in general terms):
- Fits better for investors who:
- Have a multi‑year horizon and are comfortable with significant volatility.
- Believe Boeing will ultimately fix its production, legal and cultural issues and fully monetize its backlog.
- Are willing to own a cyclical, event‑driven turnaround rather than a steady compounder.
- May not fit for investors who:
- Need near‑term income (no dividend) or stable earnings. [74]
- Prefer clean balance sheets and predictable cash flow.
- Are uncomfortable with headline and regulatory risk.
Final word
Between now and the end of 2025, BA stock will likely be driven less by big new orders—which are already strong—and more by whether Boeing can hit the operational and cash‑flow milestones it has just laid out. The fundamentals are improving, but the margin for error is slim, and the range of credible outcomes remains wide.
As always, this article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Before buying, selling or holding BA shares, consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon, and consult a qualified financial adviser if needed.
References
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