NIO stock (NYSE: NIO) heads into the weekend with investors trying to make sense of a mixed picture: strong delivery growth and new technology deals on one side, but persistent profitability worries and heavy competition on the other.
After a bruising losing streak earlier in the week, NIO shares closed Friday’s U.S. session at about $5.59, up roughly 3.5% on the day, with after‑hours trading edging the price closer to $5.64. [1] Even with that bounce, technical services still flag the stock as a “Strong Sell” on a daily basis, and the price remains well below longer‑term moving averages. [2]
At the same time, a cluster of new headlines dated November 22, 2025 is shaping the short‑term narrative:
- NIO’s first external licensing deal for its in‑house autonomous driving chip
- Fresh updates on Firefly’s 30,000‑unit milestone and innovative subscription model
- A sector piece showing NIO on the verge of joining the “million-vehicle club”
- New analyses that underline profitability concerns and cautious sentiment
Below is a detailed, SEO‑friendly breakdown of what’s moving NIO today and what it might mean ahead of Tuesday’s Q3 earnings release.
NIO stock price today: a bounce after a steep slide
- Friday close (Nov 21, 2025): about $5.59, +3.5% on the day
- After‑hours: around $5.64, +0.8% vs close [3]
- Latest trade (early Nov 22, UTC): roughly $5.58, intraday range about $5.27–$5.69, volume over 56 million shares
Earlier in the week, NIO had logged nine straight down days, losing roughly 18% over that stretch – its longest losing streak in nearly two years, according to a MarketWatch/Morningstar report. [4]
A new weekend note from TipRanks adds more color: over the past week, NIO’s share price is still down about 8.2%, even though it’s up more than 50% year‑to‑date, as investors juggle strong demand with nagging doubts about when the company can actually turn a profit. [5]
From a purely technical angle, Investing.com’s dashboard labels NIO’s daily setup as “Strong Sell”, with 11 out of 12 key moving averages flashing sell signals and a 14‑day RSI around 41 — not oversold, but tilted bearish. [6]
In short: price action has stabilized over the last 24 hours, but the chart is still fragile and sentiment cautious.
Today’s biggest NIO headlines (November 22, 2025)
1. First external licensing deal for NIO’s Shenji NX9031 chip
The most prominent stock‑focused story today comes from Simply Wall St, highlighting NIO’s first commercial licensing deal for its in‑house autonomous driving chip, Shenji NX9031. [7]
Key points from today’s coverage and recent reports:
- NIO has licensed the Shenji NX9031 technology to an automotive semiconductor company, marking the first time it has monetized this chip outside its own vehicles. [8]
- Industry sources quoted by CnEVPost say licensing fees can range from millions of RMB for IP licenses to hundreds of millions for full SoC tech, suggesting a potentially meaningful non‑vehicle revenue stream over time. [9]
- NIO has already poured several billion yuan into its chip efforts, including both the Shenji NX9031 and its LiDAR control chip, Yangjian. [10]
Simply Wall St frames the deal as strategic but not transformative on its own:
- It supports revenue diversification and validates NIO’s chip R&D,
- But it doesn’t by itself solve near‑term profitability issues or high operating expenses. [11]
The article also notes a community‑driven fair value estimate near $6.91 per share, implying upside vs. the current price, but only if NIO can deliver the aggressive revenue and earnings growth baked into long‑term forecasts. [12]
Why it matters for the stock:
The chip licensing headlines give NIO a new narrative beyond car sales: it’s positioning itself as a technology supplier as well as an automaker, which could eventually command a higher multiple. For now, though, analysts still see the core driver of the share price as vehicle margins and cash burn, not chip royalties.
2. Firefly hits 30,000 deliveries and rolls out a credit‑driven subscription model
Two fresh pieces from GlobalChinaEV today focus on NIO’s Firefly brand, giving investors a clearer picture of how this small premium EV is ramping. [13]
Milestone deliveries & expansion
- At the Guangzhou Auto Show on November 21, CEO William Li announced that Firefly has reached 30,000 domestic deliveries. [14]
- Since NIO previously reported 26,242 Firefly deliveries as of October 31, the new milestone implies around 3,700+ units delivered in November so far, with one week still to go. [15]
- Firefly is already on sale in several European countries (Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Austria, Portugal), and NIO is targeting 17 markets across Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia over time. [16]
New subscription and credit partnership
A second GlobalChinaEV piece describes China’s first “credit‑driven” car subscription model, launched jointly by:
- Sesame Credit (Ant Group’s consumer credit scoring platform)
- NIO’s Firefly brand
- Mobility partner SUPEREV [17]
Highlights:
- Users in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou and Guangzhou with a Sesame Credit score of 800+ can unlock a 7‑day Firefly “deep experience” with no deposit, no insurance handling and no standard rental fees. [18]
- Booking is done through Alipay, and participants receive owner‑level privileges (including NIO House access and concierge services) during the trial. [19]
- The program is starting small — about 200 users in the first month — but is designed to scale to more cities and models. [20]
Why it matters:
Firefly is NIO’s most affordable brand, and these initiatives show how NIO is experimenting with new ownership and subscription models to attract younger, urban drivers. The combination of:
- rapid volume growth,
- expanding geography, and
- innovative, data‑driven access
positions Firefly as a potential volume and margin driver in the next phase of NIO’s story.
3. NIO inches toward the “million‑vehicle club”
A new article from CarNewsChina today focuses on XPeng’s one‑million‑vehicle milestone — and explicitly calls NIO the next likely member of that club. [21]
According to the piece:
- As of October 31, 2025, NIO group (NIO + Onvo + Firefly) had delivered 913,182 vehicles, with 40,397 delivered in October alone — numbers that match NIO’s own official press release. [22]
- The article suggests NIO is “all but certain” to cross one million cumulative deliveries in 2025, assuming strong November and December volumes. [23]
- It also notes that, unlike some Chinese peers that rely heavily on range‑extended hybrids, NIO, XPeng and Xiaomi have stayed pure battery‑electric so far, making their path to one million units more demanding from a segment‑mix standpoint. [24]
For investors, this reinforces the idea that NIO is no longer a niche player:
- It’s already at nearly a million EVs in the field,
- While still trading at a single‑digit share price, far from its 2021 highs.
4. Sentiment check: profitability worries and a “Strong Sell” technical rating
On the sentiment side, two fresh items stand out today:
- TipRanks weekend note – NIO’s stock is down 8.22% over the past week, despite a roughly 57% gain year‑to‑date, as analysts highlight widening net losses and shrinking vehicle margins in the latest quarterly report. Consensus expectations for the upcoming print sit around a loss of ~$0.23 per share on ~$3.1 billion in revenue. [25]
- Investing.com technical page – As of early November 22, the site’s daily technical summary is “Strong Sell”, with:
- 11 sell vs 1 buy signal across moving averages (from 5‑day to 200‑day)
- A 14‑day RSI near 41,
- MACD and several other indicators also tilting bearish. [26]
Add to that a MarketBeat recap from Friday noting that NIO shares jumped 3.5% intraday to $5.59 on roughly 56 million shares traded and that Wall Street consensus remains just “Hold” with an average target of about $7.03 (4 Buys, 6 Holds, 2 Sells). [27]
Takeaway:
The market is effectively saying: “Show us the profits.” Delivery momentum and tech news are not yet enough to convince traders that NIO’s financials have turned the corner.
Fundamentals snapshot: multi‑brand growth is real
Before looking ahead to earnings, it’s worth anchoring to NIO’s hard numbers from recent official releases:
Record October deliveries
NIO’s November 1 press release confirms that the company delivered a record 40,397 vehicles in October 2025, up 92.6% year‑on‑year. [28]
Breakdown by brand in October:
- NIO brand: 17,143 vehicles
- Onvo (family‑oriented brand): 17,342 vehicles
- Firefly (small premium EV): 5,912 vehicles
Cumulatively, that brought NIO Inc. to 913,182 vehicles delivered since inception:
- NIO: 779,319
- Onvo: 107,621
- Firefly: 26,242 [29]
These figures align with the independent counts discussed in today’s CarNewsChina piece. [30]
Firefly and Onvo: from concepts to real volume
Additional reporting from CnEVPost over the past week highlights that:
- Firefly’s right‑hand‑drive variant entered mass production on November 18, with the first batch bound for Singapore — part of a broader shift toward an asset‑light distributor model in overseas markets. [31]
- Deliveries for Firefly have already begun in several European countries, and the brand is being positioned to challenge established small‑car names like Mini and Smart. [32]
Meanwhile, NIO’s Onvo L90 has rapidly grown into a major contributor to group sales; in Q3, Onvo’s deliveries surpassed the main NIO brand for the first time. [33]
Big picture: the brand architecture NIO promised a few years ago (premium NIO, family‑focused Onvo, and compact Firefly) is now clearly visible in the delivery mix. The trade‑off is that launching and scaling three brands at once is capital‑intensive, which feeds directly into the profitability debate.
Q3 2025 earnings on November 25: what to watch
NIO has confirmed it will report unaudited Q3 2025 results on Tuesday, November 25, before U.S. market open, followed by a 7:00 a.m. ET conference call. [34]
According to CnEVPost’s summary of management guidance and prior disclosures: [35]
- Q3 deliveries: 87,071 vehicles
- +40.8% YoY
- +20.8% QoQ
- Revenue guidance: RMB 21.81–22.88 billion (~$3.05–3.2 billion), implying ~17–22% YoY growth.
- Brand mix:
- NIO brand: 36,928 vehicles (down YoY and QoQ)
- Onvo: 37,656 vehicles (up 120% vs Q2)
- Firefly: 12,487 vehicles (up ~59% vs Q2)
- Q4 ambition: management has talked about delivering ~150,000 vehicles (about 50,000 per month) and targeting its first non‑GAAP quarterly profit in Q4 2025.
Combine that with TipRanks’ consensus forecast for a Q3 loss of around $0.23 per share on $3.11 billion of revenue, and it’s clear what the market wants to see on Tuesday: [36]
- Gross margin direction – Are vehicle and overall margins improving, flat, or slipping again?
- Operating expense discipline – R&D and SG&A are high; any sign of stabilization or leverage will be closely scrutinized.
- Cash flow and liquidity – With heavy investment in chips, platforms and infrastructure, balance‑sheet health is critical.
- Color on chip licensing and Firefly/Onvo economics – Investors will want more detail on how these newer initiatives move the profit needle.
Risks that remain front and center
Even with today’s upbeat headlines about chip deals and Firefly, NIO still faces several material risks that investors are watching closely.
1. Ongoing lawsuit from Singapore’s GIC
In October, Reuters reported that Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC filed a U.S. securities lawsuit against NIO and two executives, alleging they misled investors around revenue recognition and business prospects, referencing earlier claims raised by short‑seller Grizzly Research. [37]
- NIO rejects the allegations and points to an independent board investigation in 2022 that it says found no factual basis for the short‑seller’s claims. [38]
- Regardless of the outcome, the case introduces legal and reputational overhang, and could contribute to valuation discounts until resolved.
2. Profitability and cash burn
Today’s TipRanks and Simply Wall St pieces both emphasize that, despite rapid delivery growth and new revenue levers, NIO is still loss‑making and carries a heavy cost structure. [39]
- Simply Wall St notes that Street forecasts imply NIO must grow revenue nearly 30% annually to hit 2028 profit targets, starting from a deeply negative earnings base today. [40]
- Licensing chips and expanding Firefly subscriptions help diversify revenue, but they are unlikely to outweigh vehicle economics in the short term.
3. Competitive and policy pressure in China and abroad
- Domestic rivals including BYD, Li Auto, XPeng and Leapmotor are all scaling rapidly, with several already hitting or approaching the one‑million‑vehicle mark. [41]
- In Europe, higher tariffs on Chinese EV imports have already forced NIO to rethink roll‑out timing and pricing for brands like Firefly, prioritizing markets with friendlier trade terms. [42]
The flip side: NIO’s relentless investment in battery‑swap infrastructure – including 3,576 swap stations and 4,804 charging stations with 27,444 chargers in China as of November 21 – remains a key differentiator in user experience, but it also represents a significant capital commitment. [43]
What today’s setup could mean for NIO stock
Putting it all together, here’s how NIO looks on November 22, 2025:
Positives
- Explosive volume growth: record October deliveries and strong Q3 unit numbers across three brands. [44]
- Technology leverage: first external licensing of the Shenji NX9031 chip validates years of R&D and opens a new, higher‑margin revenue channel. [45]
- Brand and product depth: premium NIO, family‑focused Onvo and compact Firefly each have a defined role, with Firefly now proving it can scale and support international expansion. [46]
- User‑centric innovation: Firefly’s credit‑driven subscription and NIO’s huge swap/charging network show a focus on ownership experience, not just unit sales. [47]
Challenges
- Persistent losses and thin margins despite the growth. [48]
- Technical and sentiment headwinds, with NIO still rated “Strong Sell” on daily indicators and consensus only at “Hold.” [49]
- Legal overhang from the GIC lawsuit and broader regulatory/policy uncertainty around Chinese EVs. [50]
For now, the market seems to be treating NIO as a high‑growth, high‑execution‑risk EV platform: powerful top‑line momentum, but valuation tethered to the company’s ability to prove a clear path to sustainable profitability.
With Q3 results just days away, November 25 is likely to be the next big inflection point. Expect traders to zoom in on:
- margin trends,
- any concrete numbers around chip licensing revenue,
- Firefly and Onvo profitability profiles, and
- updated guidance for Q4 and 2026.
Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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