TSX Today: 10 Things to Know Before the Canadian Stock Market Opens on November 24, 2025

As investors get ready for the Toronto Stock Exchange to reopen on Monday, November 24, 2025, the backdrop is a mix of easing inflation, softer consumer data, nervous global risk sentiment, and a busy week of economic and corporate news. All data in this article reflects information available as of Sunday, November 23, 2025, and conditions may change before the opening bell.

1. Where the Canadian stock market is starting from

Canada’s main benchmark, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, finished Friday up 0.9% at 30,160.65, trimming its weekly loss to 0.5%. ^[1]

Technology and financials each climbed about 1.3% on Friday, helped by renewed bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut rates again in December. ^[2]
Materials also participated as copper and some base metals rebounded.

The TSX is still trading just below its mid-October record closing high around 30,637, set when renewed rate‑cut optimism and strong mining stocks pushed the index to new territory. ^[3]

Futures tied to the S&P/TSX 60 closed Friday higher as well, with the front contract up 0.92% to 1,782.30, underscoring the late‑week recovery in large‑cap sentiment. ^[4]

For Monday’s open, the key question is whether that rebound extends — or whether global growth and tech‑valuation worries reassert themselves.

2. Inflation is cooling, but demand is soft

Two big recent data points from Statistics Canada are shaping expectations for Canadian equities:

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.2% year‑over‑year in October, down from 2.4% in September and now very close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. ^[5]
Retail sales fell 0.7% in September, with vehicle-related spending leading the decline. A flash estimate suggested sales were roughly flat in October, pointing to weak real consumer spending. ^[6]

Taken together, that combination of lower inflation but soft demand has several implications for Monday:

Rate-sensitive stocks (utilities, REITs, some growth/tech names) are still supported by the idea that policy is in an easing phase.
Consumer discretionary names face a tougher backdrop, especially those exposed to autos and big-ticket retail, where the data have been weakest. ^[7]

3. Bank of Canada: in a holding pattern ahead of December

Markets expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to stay on hold in the near term:

Major bank economists now generally expect the BoC policy rate to remain around 2.25% through the end of 2025, with any further cuts more likely in 2026 if growth disappoints. ^[8]
The next BoC interest-rate announcement is scheduled for December 10, 2025, which will be a major catalyst for bank stocks, rate‑sensitive sectors, and the Canadian dollar. ^[9]

On Monday itself, there is no BoC decision, but expectations of an extended pause are already feeding into:

Banks and insurers, where investors are watching net interest margins and credit quality rather than dramatic rate moves.
Highly leveraged sectors such as REITs and utilities, which benefit from the perception that the rate‑cut cycle is closer to a pause than a reversal.

4. Monday’s Canadian data: a busy Statistics Canada slate

While there are no headline‑grabbing releases like CPI or GDP on Monday, Statistics Canada has a surprisingly full calendar for November 24, including: ^[10]

Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises (Q3 2025) – a read on corporate profitability across sectors.
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing: advance indicator for October 2025 – early signal for industrial activity.
Natural gas transmission, storage and distribution (September 2025) – relevant for energy and pipeline names.
Food services and drinking places (September 2025) – helps gauge hospitality and restaurant trends.
Railway carloadings (September 2025) – a proxy for goods movement and trade.

Although these aren’t usually “index‑moving” on their own, they can affect cyclical sectors (industrials, infrastructure, energy) and help shape expectations ahead of:

Q3 GDP data, scheduled for Friday, November 28, which RBC Economics expects will show 0.5% annualized growth in Q3, after a 1.6% contraction in Q2. ^[11]

Investors holding economically sensitive names should watch Monday’s releases for hints about whether the economy is stabilizing or still losing momentum.

5. Global backdrop: Fed cut hopes vs. valuation and growth fears

The Canadian market will also take its cue from the global risk backdrop as trading resumes.

U.S. equities

On Friday, Wall Street rallied:

The S&P 500 gained about 1%, the Dow climbed roughly 1.1%, and the Nasdaq added around 0.9%, even though all three were still on track for weekly declines. ^[12]
The move was helped by increased odds of a December Fed rate cut, after New York Fed President John Williams signaled that further easing “in the near term” could be consistent with the inflation outlook. ^[13]

That bounce in U.S. equities supported the late‑week rebound in the TSX on Friday and continues to underpin Canadian tech and financial shares.

Asia & Europe

Recent commentary from Asia and Europe shows a more cautious tone:

Asian stocks have been under pressure as AI‑linked tech valuations draw scrutiny and Japan’s bond market stress raises worries about global rates and liquidity. ^[14]
A global “week ahead” view from IG highlights that equity markets enter the week under pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 and Australia’s ASX 200 both suffering notable recent losses amid hawkish Fed minutes and weaker risk appetite. ^[15]

Bottom line: Monday’s TSX open comes against a fragile but not outright bearish global backdrop, where every new data point can swing expectations for the Fed and, by extension, the BoC.

6. Commodities setup: weaker oil, strong gold

For a resource‑heavy index like the TSX, oil and gold direction is often just as important as the macro data.

Crude oil

Brent crude ended Friday near US$62.5 per barrel, down about 1.3% on the day and extending a recent losing streak driven by concerns over demand and increased supply, including resumed loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub. ^[16]
A separate week‑ahead snapshot pegs crude around US$58.60, noting that oil has fallen roughly 2.5% over the week. ^[17]

That combination suggests pressure on Canadian energy names at the margin, particularly higher‑cost producers and oil‑sands names, although integrated majors with strong downstream operations may fare better.

Gold

Spot gold is trading near US$4,075–4,080 per ounce, only slightly below recent highs, after a modest pullback late last week. ^[18]

High gold prices continue to support:

Precious metals miners and royalty companies on the TSX.
Broader materials and mining ETFs that have been outperforming during the latest bout of macro uncertainty.

In short, Monday opens with a familiar TSX pattern: energy facing a headwind, miners enjoying a tailwind.

7. The Canadian dollar: loonie still on the back foot

The Canadian dollar has been trading on the weaker side against the U.S. dollar:

Over the past week, USD/CAD traded roughly between 1.398 and 1.413, with the loonie near the weaker end of that band as of late Friday. ^[19]
A recent Reuters poll suggested that while the loonie could strengthen over the next year if Fed rate cuts drag the U.S. dollar lower, near‑term sentiment remains cautious. ^[20]

A softer loonie tends to:

Support exporters (manufacturers, some tech and resource names) whose revenues are in U.S. dollars.
Pressure import‑heavy retailers and companies with high foreign‑currency debt.

For Monday, currency moves could be especially relevant for:

Energy and mining producers whose costs are in CAD but sales are in USD.
Cross‑listed tech names like Shopify, where U.S. trading often sets the tone for the Canadian line.

8. Corporate calendar: Couche‑Tard earnings and a wave of buybacks

Alimentation Couche‑Tard (TSX: ATD)

One of the biggest single‑stock events of the day comes after the close:

Alimentation Couche‑Tard will release its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Monday, November 24, after the TSX close. ^[21]
A conference call is scheduled for Tuesday morning at 8:00 a.m. ET, with consensus looking for EPS around C$1.05. ^[22]

As a major global convenience and fuel retailer, Couche‑Tard’s outlook on fuel margins, in‑store merchandise trends, and its capital deployment (including a renewed share repurchase program) will be closely watched by TSX investors. ^[23]

Normal course issuer bids (NCIBs) kicking in

Several issuers begin or renew share buyback programs effective November 24, which can provide incremental support to their share prices:

Boardwalk REIT (TSX: BEI.UN) – authorized to repurchase up to about 4 million units, roughly 10% of its public float, under a renewed NCIB that starts November 24 and runs up to November 23, 2026. ^[24]
Medexus Pharmaceuticals (TSX: MDP) – may purchase for cancellation up to 2.98 million common shares, or about 10% of the public float, with the NCIB commencing November 24. ^[25]
Queen’s Road Capital (TSX: QRC) – continuing its NCIB for another 12 months, also starting November 24. ^[26]

Buybacks don’t guarantee performance, but they:

Put steady demand under the share price.
Are often read as a signal of management confidence in intrinsic value.

Other notable corporate developments

Vizsla Silver (TSX: VZLA) expects to close a US$250 million convertible senior notes offering around November 24, a sizable capital raise for a TSX‑listed silver developer. ^[27]
First Capital REIT holds a special unitholder meeting at 10:00 a.m. Toronto time on November 24 to vote on a plan of arrangement and an amended declaration of trust, with potential implications for structure and strategy if approved. ^[28]

Investors with exposure to these names should be ready for elevated stock‑specific volatility as Monday’s headlines land.

9. Earnings to watch on November 24

Beyond Couche‑Tard, the Canadian earnings diary for Monday includes several smaller TSX and TSXV names, but they still matter for sentiment in their niches: ^[29]

Scheduled to report on November 24, 2025:

Alimentation Couche‑Tard Inc. (TSX: ATD) – Q2 FY2026 (after the close). ^[30]
Atlas Engineered Products Ltd. – Q2 2026.
Cannara Biotech Inc. – Q4 2025.
Destiny Media Technologies Inc. – Q3 2025.
Nanalysis Scientific Corp. – Q3 2025.
QYOU Media Inc. – Q3 2025.
Sabio Holdings Inc. – Q3 2025.

For TSX investors, the headline focus will be on Couche‑Tard, but small‑cap traders may see sharp moves in these less liquid names, especially in cannabis (Cannara), media, and specialized tech.

10. The week ahead: GDP Friday, U.S. Thanksgiving, and volatility risk

Even though this article focuses on Monday’s open, positioning on November 24 is inseparable from the rest of the week.

Key Canadian events later this week

Friday, November 28 – Q3 2025 GDP (income and expenditure) and GDP by industry (September). RBC expects Q3 growth of about 0.5% annualized, supported by a rebound in manufacturing and oil output but tempered by softer retail demand. ^[31]
Additional StatsCan reports later in the week will cover balance of payments, payroll employment and hours, and various sector reports that can further refine the macro picture. ^[32]

U.S. Thanksgiving and lower liquidity

U.S. equity markets will be closed on Thursday, November 27 for Thanksgiving and will close early at 1:00 p.m. on Friday, November 28. ^[33]

That typically means:

Lower trading volumes on North American exchanges in the back half of the week.
A higher chance of sharp moves on modest news, as fewer participants can mean thinner order books.

Climate and ESG themes on the TSX

Monday also marks the start of Canada Climate Week Xchange (CCWX), which runs from November 24–30 and includes multiple events hosted or co‑hosted by the Toronto Stock Exchange on topics such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and climate finance. ^[34]

For investors in ESG‑focused names, cleantech, and carbon‑capture plays, the week could bring:

Increased headline visibility.
Potential policy or partnership announcements.

Quick checklist before the bell

If you’re following the Canadian market into Monday’s open, here’s a concise list of what to track:

Overnight moves in oil and gold – energy vs. miners will likely pull in opposite directions again. ^[35]
New headlines around Fed rate expectations – the TSX has been highly sensitive to shifts in December cut odds. ^[36]
Statistics Canada’s Monday releases, particularly the advance manufacturing indicator and corporate financial statistics. ^[37]
Shares with fresh buyback authorizations (Boardwalk REIT, Medexus, Queen’s Road Capital and others) as NCIBs begin. ^[38]
Positioning in Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD) ahead of its after‑the‑bell earnings release. ^[39]

Final note

Nothing in this article is financial advice. It’s a news‑style overview of the key macro, sector, and company‑specific factors likely to influence Canadian stocks when the S&P/TSX Composite opens on Monday, November 24, 2025. Market conditions, prices, and expectations can change quickly, especially around major data releases and central‑bank decisions, so always cross‑check the latest quotes and announcements before making trading or investment decisions.

The Best ETFs for Canadians!🇨🇦📈