Tesla Stock: 10 Things to Know Before the Market Opens on November 24, 2025

Tesla stock heads into Monday’s session in a strange spot: punished like a car company, priced like an AI giant, and trading in one of its most volatile stretches of the year.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) closed Friday, November 21, at $391.09, down 1.05% on the day, before ticking up to about $393.83 in after-hours trading. ^[1] Over the last 10 trading days, the stock has slid nearly 9%, even though it’s still up double‑digits over the past year and sits roughly 20% below its 52‑week high of $488.54 and about 80% above its 52‑week low of $214.25. ^[2]

Below is your pre‑market cheat sheet for Monday, November 24, 2025—what’s driving Tesla right now, what Wall Street is watching, and which storylines could move TSLA when the bell rings.

Note: All prices and figures are as of Friday’s close (Nov. 21, 2025), unless otherwise stated. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

1. Where Tesla stock stands heading into Monday

Last close: $391.09
Move Friday: –1.05%
After-hours quote: ~$393.83 (+0.7%) ^[3]
52-week range: $214.25 – $488.54 ^[4]
Market cap: Roughly in the $1.3 trillion range, keeping Tesla firmly in mega‑cap territory. ^[5]

Technically, TSLA is sitting in the middle of its 12‑month range after a sharp November pullback. One widely cited report notes the stock is down around low‑teens percentage points month‑to‑date, even as broader indexes hover near all‑time highs. ^[6]

Options and volatility tell you how jumpy the market is:

Implied volatility on Tesla options sits above 50%, with recent readings around 54%—high even by TSLA standards. ^[7]
A recent near‑term options expiry was pricing an expected move of about ±4–5% in just a couple of days, corresponding to a trading range roughly between $385 and $420. ^[8]

In other words: Wall Street is still braced for big daily swings, and Monday is unlikely to be boring.

2. New AI chips (AI5 & AI6) are now a front‑and‑center Tesla story

The freshest Tesla headline this weekend is not about cars at all—it’s about custom AI chips.

In a series of posts on X, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla is:

Nearing completion of its AI5” chip design
Already in early development of an AI6” chip,
And targeting one new chip design per year.” ^[9]

Key points:

Tesla already uses its AI4 chips in vehicles and data centers and claims millions of its own AI chips are deployed powering Autopilot, FSD, and training. ^[10]
Samsung Electronics reportedly secured a $16.5 billion manufacturing deal in July to produce these new Tesla chips at a planned Texas fab, underlining how serious the hardware push is. ^[11]
One analysis pegs Tesla at roughly 180x its 2026 earnings estimate, arguing that much of that valuation is tied to expectations that Tesla becomes a true AI hardware and software platform, not just an automaker. ^[12]

For traders on Monday, this matters because:

The AI‑chip narrative helps justify Tesla’s premium multiple, especially with auto margins under pressure.
It puts Tesla in more direct comparison with Nvidia, AMD, and other AI‑hardware names, which can affect how macro AI sentiment spills into TSLA’s price.

Expect any new detail—from Samsung, Musk, or third‑party chip analysts—to be closely scrutinized pre‑market.

3. FSD v14.2 is rolling out—and it impressed a key Wall Street firm

Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) v14.2 only started rolling out to an initial batch of AI4 (HW4) vehicles this weekend, and it’s already reshaping the debate. ^[13]

According to early release notes and user reports, FSD v14.2:

Upgrades the vision neural network with higher‑resolution features
Improves handling of emergency vehicles, obstacles, human gestures, detours, road debris, and unprotected turns
Adds arrival options” (parking lot, street, driveway, garage, curbside) and more granular speed profiles
Feels smoother with far less brake stabbing” and hesitation, a major complaint with v14.1.x. ^[14]

Crucially for the stock:

Piper Sandler analysts took an FSD v14 ride during a visit to Tesla’s Fremont factory and described the drive as flawless,” saying the software is probably already better than the average American driver.” They reaffirmed a $500 price target on TSLA after the visit. ^[15]
Stifel recently raised its target to $508, citing robotaxi progress, and Wedbush remains at $600 on the bullish end. ^[16]

On the other side, HSBC keeps a reduce” rating and a $131 target, arguing fundamentals don’t support the valuation. ^[17]

Why it matters Monday: any new footage, user feedback, or regulator commentary on FSD v14.2 (and Musk’s teased v14.3 last big piece of the puzzle” update) could influence short‑term sentiment. Tesla’s AI narrative now leans heavily on FSD functioning as a credible platform for robotaxis and subscription software.

4. Q3 earnings: record revenue, but profits are sliding

Tesla is still trading in the shadow of its Q3 2025 results, released on October 22.

From multiple post‑earnings breakdowns and Tesla’s own materials:

Revenue hit about $28.1 billion, up roughly 12% year‑on‑year, helped by a surge of buyers rushing to use a $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit before it expired on October 1. ^[18]
Vehicle deliveries reached a record ~497,000 units, up around 7% YoY. ^[19]
Despite this, net income fell by more than a third year‑over‑year, with several outlets citing a drop of around 37%, marking the fourth straight quarter of declining earnings. ^[20]
Operating margins compressed to around 5–6%, down from double digits a year earlier, as price cuts, tariffs, and lower regulatory credit income took their toll. ^[21]
Tesla’s cash pile climbed above $41 billion, supported by strong free cash flow in the quarter. ^[22]

Analysts have been revising models accordingly:

Zacks and other services note that consensus EPS estimates for 2025 have been cut sharply, leaving Tesla’s forward multiples steeper than before. ^[23]
One post‑earnings note calculates that Tesla shares are down around 12% since the report, reflecting concern that volume growth isn’t translating into profit growth. ^[24]

Heading into Monday, traders will be asking whether Tesla is:

Still in a simple post‑earnings digestion phase, or
Entering a longer re‑rating, where margins and auto demand matter more than AI dreams—at least in the near term.

5. EV demand is wobbling—and Tesla is launching rentals to plug the gap

The macro backdrop is shifting against EVs, and Tesla is right in the crosshairs.

Recent industry data and reporting show:

Tesla’s U.S. EV market share fell to about 38% in August 2025, its lowest since 2017, down from more than 80% a few years ago. ^[25]
The broader U.S. EV market hit a tax‑credit cliff: after the federal incentive expired at the end of September, estimates suggest EV share fell from over 12% of sales in September to roughly 5% in October. ^[26]

Tesla’s response:

The company has quietly launched a short‑term rental program at stores in San Diego and Costa Mesa, California, allowing customers to rent Teslas for 3–7 days starting around $60 per day, with free Supercharging and access to FSD (Supervised). ^[27]
Renters who later decide to buy get a $250 credit, essentially turning the program into an extended test drive designed to stimulate demand and reduce inventory after the tax credit expired. ^[28]

Against that backdrop, several analysts warn that:

Q3’s record results are partly pulled forward demand from the tax credit deadline, leaving Q4 and early 2026 at risk of softer sales, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. ^[29]

For Monday: any new indications of price cuts, fresh incentives, or rental expansion to new markets could be read as either:

A smart demand‑generation strategy, or
A warning sign that core EV demand is weaker than the stock price implies.

6. Cybertruck & global expansion: big brand, mixed economics

Cybertruck remains an attention magnet but a complicated profit story.

Recent developments:

Tesla has begun a wider rollout of FSD v14 to Cybertruck owners, adapting the system to the truck’s all‑wheel steering, size, and camera layout. ^[30]
The company plans to expand Cybertruck to the Middle East, with Tesla’s Cybertruck program head stating that deliveries in the United Arab Emirates are now expected in Q1 2026, slightly later than originally hoped. ^[31]
Reports suggest Tesla is preparing to bring Cybertruck to South Korea and other wealthy markets, although regulatory constraints mean the truck still can’t be sold in the EU or China in its current form due to safety and design issues. ^[32]

Cybertruck also carries quality and recall risk: Tesla has already had to recall several thousand trucks for issues like light bar adhesion and exterior trim, though these have been addressed via service bulletins and over‑the‑air updates. ^[33]

For Monday, Cybertruck is less about immediate quarterly numbers and more about brand and optionality—but any new recall, viral video, or regulatory action tends to move the stock quickly.

7. Optimus & the robot army narrative: long‑term dream, short‑term story driver

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is still years from mass deployment, but it has become central to Musk’s pitch and to the new $1 trillion pay package (more on that next).

Recent headlines:

Tesla showed new Optimus footage and an R&D assembly line at its November shareholder meeting, including dancing robots on stage in Austin. ^[34]
Tech analysts say the latest generation of Optimus outperforms leading Chinese humanoid robots in range, load capacity, and overall dexterity, though it remains a prototype. ^[35]
Musk has publicly mused that Optimus could eventually account for most of Tesla’s value” and that large‑scale production is aimed toward late 2026 after a production prototype is unveiled in Q1 2026. ^[36]

There’s pushback too:

Robotics experts and even the co‑founder of iRobot have criticized the hype, arguing that Optimus is still far behind the marketing, with limited real‑world capabilities shown to date. ^[37]

Why this matters for Tesla stock now:

The more Tesla leans into Optimus and robotaxis, the more the stock trades like a long‑dated AI/robotics option rather than a pure EV play. That can boost multiples in an AI bubble—but also magnify downside whenever reality fails to match the story.

8. Musk’s $1 trillion pay package and xAI tie‑up are officially approved

On November 6, 2025, Tesla shareholders approved a record‑setting pay package for Elon Musk that could be worth up to $1 trillion in stock if the company hits a series of extreme performance and valuation milestones. ^[38]

Key details:

The package targets an eventual $8.5 trillion market cap, 20 million annual vehicle deliveries, 1 million robotaxis, 1 million humanoid robots, and massive earnings growth by 2035. ^[39]
More than 75% of votes backed the plan, but that support was heavily influenced by Musk’s own stake. Some large institutions and proxy advisers opposed it, citing cost, governance, and concentration of power. ^[40]
Shareholders also approved Tesla investing in Musk’s AI startup xAI, raising questions about potential conflicts and how value will be shared between the two entities. ^[41]

For TSLA, this creates a few near‑term dynamics:

It reduces the risk that Musk walks away from Tesla to focus on his other ventures, something many investors worried about. ^[42]
It locks in an extremely ambitious roadmap; to make the package look reasonable, Tesla must grow far beyond cars—deep into AI chips, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.
Some investors remain uneasy about dilution, governance, and the impact of Musk’s polarizing politics on the brand. ^[43]

Any fresh comment from Musk on how xAI and Tesla will share AI assets, chips, and data could move the stock on Monday, especially in an AI‑obsessed market.

9. Wall Street’s split view: consensus Hold,” wild target spread

Despite the hype, the average Wall Street stance on TSLA is now Hold.”

According to aggregated data:

About 1 analyst rates it Strong Buy, 21 have Buy ratings, 12 rate it Hold, and 10 rate it Sell, with an average price target around $394.31—only a hair above Friday’s close. ^[44]

But under that calm surface is a huge spread:

Bullish camp:
- Wedbush at $600,
- Piper Sandler at $500,
- Stifel at $508, all leaning heavily on FSD and robotaxis. ^[45]
Bearish camp:
- HSBC at $131 with a reduce” rating, arguing fundamentals don’t match the valuation. ^[46]

The market, for now, is pricing Tesla roughly in line with the average target, which suggests:

Short‑term direction will likely be driven by news flow, not by big target changes—unless a major firm dramatically shifts its stance (for example, a top bull cutting to neutral).

10. Positioning, volatility, and what to watch at Monday’s open

A quick snapshot of positioning:

Short interest is relatively modest: around 72 million shares short, or roughly 2.5–2.7% of float, with less than one day to cover at average volume. ^[47]
However, FINRA short volume regularly represents 45–55% of daily trading, highlighting how heavily TSLA is used for short‑term trading and hedging. ^[48]
Options volume is enormous—over 1.5 million contracts recently, with heavy activity in near‑the‑money calls and puts around the $400 strike. ^[49]

Your Monday morning Tesla checklist

Here’s what traders and longer‑term investors are likely to watch before and just after the bell:

Futures & macro tone
- How are Nasdaq futures trading, and are AI/high‑beta names (Nvidia, AMD, ARM, etc.) bid or offered? Tesla tends to move with the risk‑on/risk‑off mood of big‑cap growth.
Any new Musk posts on X
- Updates on AI5/AI6 chips, FSD v14.2/v14.3, or Optimus can swing sentiment quickly—especially if they mention real‑world milestones, regulatory progress, or partnerships.
Fresh EV demand and pricing headlines
- Watch for new stories on U.S. EV sales, discounts, or rental program expansion, which would feed into the thesis that Q3’s boom was front‑loaded. ^[50]
Analyst notes hitting before the open
- Any revised targets or rating changes, especially from high‑profile Tesla bulls or bears, can move the stock.
Pre‑market TSLA tape
- While pre‑market liquidity is thin, an outsized move relative to futures—say, TSLA up or down 3–4% while the Nasdaq is flat—often signals a large institutional order or reaction to overnight news.
Key technical zones
- Friday’s intraday low near the mid‑$380s and the $400–$420 range highlighted by recent options prices are likely to be watched as support and resistance in the very short term. ^[51]

Bottom line

Heading into Monday, November 24, 2025, Tesla stock sits at a crossroads:

Near term, it’s battling margin pressure, EV demand headwinds, and stiff competition, while options markets price in more big swings and the stock digests a rough November.
Longer term, the story increasingly hinges on in‑house AI chips, FSD, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, now backed by the most aggressive CEO pay package in corporate history.

Whether TSLA bounces or breaks lower at the open will likely come down to which narrative traders choose to believe today: the car company dealing with a cyclical slowdown, or the AI and robotics platform Musk insists is just getting started.

Elon Musk Hints at Un-Supervised FSD Coming... (Tesla Stock Breaking News)