Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) Share Price – What to Know Before Market Open on 24 November 2025

As the ASX 200 prepares to open on Monday, 24 November 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) will again be in the spotlight. The country’s largest bank has just endured one of its sharpest sell‑offs in years, triggered not by a collapse in profits, but by mounting worries over stretched valuations, pressure on margins and rising regulatory and reputational risks. ^[1]

Here’s what investors need to know about CBA stock before trading starts.

CBA share price snapshot heading into Monday

At the close of trade on Friday, 21 November 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares finished at $153.06. That price gives the bank a market capitalisation of roughly $256 billion and leaves the stock about 30–31% higher than a year ago, even after this month’s slump. ^[2]

Over the past 12 months, CBA has traded between $140.21 and $192.00 per share. At Friday’s close, the stock sat around 20% below its 52‑week high and roughly 9% above the low – a drop that has pushed it into what many commentators describe as “bear territory” (more than 20% off the peak). ^[3]

Because of its size, CBA exerts an outsized influence on the broader market. In BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF (IOZ), which closely tracks the benchmark index, CBA accounts for about 10% of the portfolio, making it one of the single largest weights in the Australian market. ^[4]

Put simply: whatever happens to CBA at the open on Monday will matter not only for bank shareholders, but also for almost every Australian with superannuation exposure to the ASX 200.

Why CBA sold off so hard in November

The immediate trigger for CBA’s rough month was its first‑quarter FY26 trading update, released on 11 November. The numbers were, on the surface, solid:

Cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of about $2.6 billion for the September quarter – up 2% year on year and 1%versus the average of the previous two quarters. ^[5]
Operating income up 3%, driven by lending and deposit volume growth (and 1.5 extra days in the quarter). ^[6]

But markets focused on the less flattering parts of the story:

Net interest margin (NIM) was lower, as strong growth in lower‑yielding liquid assets and institutional repos diluted returns, and deposit customers switched into higher‑rate accounts amid intense competition and lower cash rates. ^[7]
Operating expenses rose about 4% (and roughly 6% including notable items) on the back of wage inflation and higher technology and vendor costs. ^[8]
CBA didn’t disclose an explicit NIM figure, which some analysts viewed as unhelpful given the concern around margins. ^[9]

Despite the “okay” profit growth, the share price reaction was brutal. Reuters reported that CBA stock fell nearly 5% on the day of the update, and analysis from Market Index shows a 6.2% one‑day slide followed by another 3% drop, leaving the shares down about 9% in just two sessions – their worst two‑day fall since 2021. ^[10]

At the same time, the broader ASX 200 was under pressure, with around $60 billion wiped off the market over a couple of days as concerns about an AI‑driven tech bubble and global interest rates spooked investors. Banks were among the hardest‑hit sectors. ^[11]

For a stock that had been trading on one of the richest valuations of any bank in the world, “good but not spectacular” results were suddenly not good enough.

Inside CBA’s latest results: solid fundamentals, squeezed margins

CBA’s own 1Q26 update and subsequent analyst commentary paint a picture of a still‑robust franchise facing the familiar headwinds of a lower‑rate, highly competitive banking landscape. Key details include: ^[12]

Profit and income

Unaudited statutory NPAT: about $2.5 billion for the quarter.
Unaudited cash NPAT: about $2.6 billion, up 1% versus the 2H25 quarterly average and 2% year on year.
Operating income: up 3%, with net interest income also up 3%, helped by loan and deposit growth and the extra days in the period.

Margins and costs

Headline NIM declined due to:
- strong growth in low‑yield liquid assets (+$12 billion), largely from institutional deposits, and
- additional institutional repo activity. ^[13]
Excluding those effects, CBA said underlying margins were still slightly lower, reflecting deposit switching, heavy competition and a lower cash‑rate environment. ^[14]
Operating expenses increased 4% (excluding restructuring and notable items), mainly from wages and IT vendor inflation, plus the longer quarter. Analysts pointed out that overall costs rose around 6% quarter‑on‑quarter once one‑offs are included – a key contributor to the share price reaction. ^[15]

Volume growth and credit quality

Home loans grew $9.3 billion in the quarter, around 1.1× system, while household deposits rose $17.8 billion, about 1.2× system – evidence that CBA is still gaining share in core markets. ^[16]
Customer deposit funding now provides 79% of total funding, with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio at 133% and Net Stable Funding Ratio at 116% – comfortably above regulatory minimums. ^[17]
Loan impairment expense was $220 million, equivalent to about 9 basis points of average loans. Home‑loan arrears fell to 0.66%, and troubled corporate exposures were steady at 0.94% of the business loan book. Provisions remain strong, with a total coverage ratio of 1.60%. ^[18]

Capital strength

CBA’s CET1 (Level 2) capital ratio stood at 11.8% at 30 September, well above APRA’s minimum requirement of 10.25%. ^[19]
The ratio rose 33 basis points over the quarter before the payment of $4.4 billion in dividends, reflecting strong organic capital generation. ^[20]

Bottom line: business performance is steady and capital is sound, but margins and costs are moving the wrong way at a time when the share price had been implying almost flawless execution.

Valuation reset – but CBA still looks expensive

Even after the recent correction, CBA remains priced at a premium that many analysts argue is hard to justify on fundamentals alone.

Prior to the sell‑off, Bloomberg and local commentary put CBA on a forward P/E multiple of around 27–29×, with price‑to‑book at roughly 3.5× – more than double the global bank average. ^[21]
FNArena describes CBA as “the most expensive bank ever in developed markets” on current valuation metrics and estimates that even after the pull‑back, the stock still trades on about 25× forward earnings with a dividend yield under 3%. ^[22]
Market Index highlights that major brokers currently have price targets between about $96 and $127, implying significant downside from the levels at which the share price was trading immediately after the quarterly update. ^[23]

Broker sentiment is strikingly one‑sided:

Livewire collates ratings from major firms and finds 0 “Buy”, 0 “Hold” and 9 “Sell” recommendations on CBA, earning it a “Strong Sell” label in their framework, with consensus fair value suggesting roughly 25% downsidefrom recent prices. ^[24]
FNArena’s consensus target of around $118 per share (based on a pre‑selloff price of $158.38) implies about 25–26% downside, and they note that one broker, Morgans, has trimmed its target to roughly $96, more than 35% below earlier trading levels. ^[25]
Aggregated data from Fintel and TipRanks show average 12‑month price targets in the low $120s, with ranges commonly spanning $96–$146, again pointing to 15–20% potential downside from Friday’s close around $153. ^[26]

In other words, the November fall has removed some of CBA’s premium – but not all of it. At roughly 20% below its 52‑week high yet still on mid‑20s P/E multiples, the stock remains priced as a high‑quality, scarce asset rather than a typical bank. ^[27]

Macro backdrop: rates, housing and regulatory pressure

Interest rates and inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut the cash rate three times in 2025, but at its November meeting it held the rate steady at 3.60%, describing the stance as “slightly restrictive” amid renewed inflation pressure. ^[28]

Key points for bank investors:

Core inflation has crept back to the top of the RBA’s 1–3% target band, and the central bank now expects inflation to stay a bit higher for longer than previously forecast. ^[29]
Financial markets, via the ASX 30‑day Interbank Cash Rate futures, are pricing little change in the cash rate over the next year, suggesting a prolonged period around 3.6%. ^[30]

A “higher for longer” cash‑rate profile tends to be a mixed blessing for CBA: it supports margins in some products but can also cap loan growth and increase credit risk if borrowers struggle as fixed‑rate loans roll off.

APRA’s System Risk Outlook and the housing boom

APRA’s System Risk Outlook (November 2025) concludes that the Australian financial system is “safe, stable and resilient”, but flags several vulnerabilities that matter directly for CBA: ^[31]

Household debt has been stuck at roughly 1.8× household income for nearly a decade, one of the highest ratios globally.
As interest rates have fallen this year, house prices and investor housing loans have picked up, and there are signs of increased higher‑risk lending and competitive pressure for new borrowers.
APRA is monitoring these dynamics closely and has made clear it is prepared to use macroprudential tools if necessary to curb excessive risk in the housing market.

CBA, which controls roughly a quarter of Australia’s $2.2 trillion mortgage market, is front and centre in that discussion. ^[32]

Chief executive Matt Comyn told a parliamentary committee last week that he believes home‑loan demand is currently “too high” and that a slightly slower rate of housing credit growth would be more sustainable for financial stability and housing affordability. He also suggested the bank’s base case is for the cash rate to remain around 3.6% through 2026. ^[33]

Deposit competition and funding costs

On the funding side, CBA is battling to defend its dominant position in the $1.7 trillion household deposit market, where competition from Macquarie and the other big four banks has intensified. Reports suggest CBA has been using targeted “secret” deposit rate offers to retain high‑value customers, which can help hold onto low‑cost funding but also risk eroding margins if used too aggressively. ^[34]

For investors, the macro picture heading into Monday’s open is one of steady but constrained earnings power: rates that are no longer falling quickly, a housing market that regulators worry may be overheating again, and deposit pricing that remains a live battleground.

Reputational risk: “excessive fees” back in the headlines

Just as valuations and macro risks have come to the fore, conduct risk has also re‑entered the conversation.

An ASIC investigation found that CBA and its subsidiary Bankwest charged about $270 million in so‑called “excessive fees” – including account‑keeping, dishonour and overdraw charges – to roughly 2.2 million low‑income customers over five years. ^[35]

At a parliamentary economics committee hearing in Canberra on 18 November, Comyn faced heavy criticism over the bank’s decision not to automatically refund all affected customers, arguing that doing so could be seen as an appropriation of shareholder funds. By contrast, Westpac has committed to fully refunding nearly $10 million of similar fees for its own customers. ^[36]

While any eventual remediation cost would likely be manageable for a bank generating more than $10 billion in annual cash profit, the episode:

revives memories of past misconduct issues,
risks further political and regulatory scrutiny, and
may weigh on investor perception at a time when social licence and fairness in banking are under closer watch. ^[37]

Headlines about fees will not move the share price in the same way as a surprise profit miss or rate hike, but they can contribute to a more cautious stance from long‑term institutional investors.

How brokers see CBA into 2026

Across major research houses, three themes stand out in their CBA commentary:

Premium franchise, premium multiple – but how high is too high?
Analysts consistently acknowledge CBA’s advantages: the largest and stickiest deposit base, leading technology, strong brand, relatively low‑risk mortgage book and high return on equity. FNArena notes that for years brokers have described the stock as “priced to perfection”. ^[38]
Valuation seen as detached from fundamentals
- FNArena calculates a consensus forward P/E around 25× even after the latest fall and describes CBA as the most expensive developed‑market bank on record. ^[39]
- Market Index and Livewire both highlight that all major brokers rate the shares a sell, with consensus targets clustered about 20–25% below current levels. ^[40]
- Several brokers argue that even modest further cost growth or margin pressure could lead to “de‑rating” – a fall in the multiple applied to the earnings – as investors switch into cheaper banks or other sectors. ^[41]
Rotation into peers and other sectors
Market Index points out that over the past 12 months CBA has lost its performance lead to Westpac, ANZ and NAB, which are delivering more aggressive cost‑out programs from significantly lower multiples. ^[42]Some commentators also note a pattern where sharp CBA sell‑offs are accompanied by flows into miners like BHP, suggesting that portfolio managers are rotating from over‑owned, expensive financials into resources when they see better value there. ^[43]

Taken together, broker research implies that, heading into Monday’s session, the consensus professional view remains that CBA is a high‑quality business trading at a valuation that leaves limited room for disappointment.

Five things to watch when CBA opens on 24 November 2025

When trading resumes, these are the key signposts investors are likely to focus on:

Opening move and early volume
CBA closed Friday at $153.06, down from around $158.38 at the lows highlighted in last week’s Market Index analysis.
- A firm open with strong volume could signal that some investors see value after the pull‑back.
- A weak open or quick slide back towards the recent lows would suggest the valuation reset isn’t finished.
Relative performance versus other big four banks
Watch how CBA trades against Westpac, ANZ and NAB. Recent broker notes and performance data show those peers have been gaining ground, helped by efficiency drives and less demanding valuations. Continued outperformance by peers would reinforce the idea of an ongoing rotation away from CBA.
Index and ETF flows
With CBA representing roughly 10% of major ASX 200 ETFs, any large index‑driven selling or buying can magnify moves in the share price. A choppy or weak broader market open would likely see CBA dragged around by passive flows as much as by its own fundamentals.
Rate‑sensitive headlines and data
Markets are currently pricing little change in the cash rate over the next year, but investors will be watching for any:
- RBA speeches,
- fresh inflation or labour‑market data, or
- global bond‑yield moves
that might shift the RBA rate outlook and, with it, the earnings profile of the banks. The ASX rate tracker currently implies that the cash rate is expected to stay close to 3.6% for the foreseeable future.
Regulatory and political follow‑through
Any new commentary from APRA on housing and leverage risks, or from politicians and ASIC on bank fees and hardship practices, could sway sentiment – especially while the “excessive fees” debate is still in the news.

Final thoughts – CBA at a turning point

Heading into the 24 November open, Commonwealth Bank of Australia finds itself at a crossroads:

Fundamentals remain solid: strong profitability, sound capital, high‑quality loan book and deep customer relationships.
Macro conditions are neither terrible nor easy: rates are no longer falling quickly, housing is buoyant but under regulatory scrutiny, and competition for deposits and mortgages is intense.
Valuation is still demanding, even after a 20% slide from the highs, and almost every major broker remains cautious or outright negative on the stock.

For investors watching the tape on Monday morning, the key question is whether recent weakness marks the start of a longer de‑rating toward peer valuations, or a temporary overshoot in a high‑quality franchise that the market is reluctant to abandon.

Either way, CBA’s next move will be a major driver of both the banking sector and the ASX 200 in the days and weeks ahead.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial product advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider seeking professional advice before making any investment decision.

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