BHP Walks Away from Anglo American Takeover After Fresh Bid, as ASX 200 Rallies on Qube Deal and Fed Rate-Cut Hopes

24 November 2025 – Market wrap and takeover watch

Key points

BHP has confirmed it is no longer pursuing a merger with Anglo American, after making a fresh takeover approach in recent days. ^[1]
The move comes just weeks before Anglo American and Teck Resources shareholders vote on their US$50–60 billion “merger of equals”, which would create “Anglo Teck”, a global critical minerals giant. ^[2]
ASX 200 is up around 1% in Monday trade, buoyed by Wall Street’s rally on renewed expectations of a December US Federal Reserve rate cut. ^[3]
Logistics group Qube has surged after an $11.6 billion takeover proposal from Macquarie Asset Management, while lithium stocks remain under pressure after a sharp fall in Chinese futures. ^[4]
BHP says it still sees strategic merit in an Anglo deal, but is “confident” in its own organic growth strategy, signalling a renewed focus on internal copper growth rather than mega‑mergers. ^[5]

BHP’s renewed Anglo American bid – and its rapid retreat

Over the weekend, reports from Bloomberg, the Financial Times and others revealed that BHP had rekindled takeover talks with Anglo American, less than 18 months after walking away from an earlier, highly contentious bid. ^[6]

According to those reports, BHP’s latest overture to Anglo was made in recent days and structured more simply than its 2024 proposal, which had sought a break‑up of Anglo’s South African assets. ^[7] The aim this time: to disrupt Anglo’s planned all‑share merger with Canadian miner Teck Resources, a tie‑up that would create one of the world’s largest copper producers. ^[8]

But the revival was short‑lived.

Official BHP statement: “No longer considering a combination”

Before Monday’s ASX session, BHP published a formal statement on its website and to the market, dated 24 November 2025 and issued under Rule 2.8 of the UK City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. ^[9]

In it, the company:

Confirms that after preliminary discussions with Anglo American’s board, it is “no longer considering a combination of the two companies”. ^[10]
Reiterates that it still believes a deal would have had strong strategic merits and created significant value, but
Emphasises that BHP is “confident in the highly compelling potential” of its own organic growth strategy and will focus on that path instead. ^[11]

Because the statement is made under Rule 2.8, BHP is now locked out of making another approach for six months, unless certain conditions are met – for example, if Anglo’s board invites a renewed bid, a third party makes a firm offer, or there is a material change in circumstances as determined by the UK Takeover Panel. ^[12]

Anglo–Teck merger stays in the box seat

With BHP stepping back, attention swings back to Anglo’s own preferred deal.

On 9 September 2025, Anglo American and Teck announced they had agreed to combine in a “merger of equals”to form Anglo Teck, a global critical minerals group headquartered in Canada. ^[13]
Anglo published its shareholder circular on 10 November, setting a general meeting for 9 December 2025 in London, where investors will vote on the proposals to implement the merger. ^[14]

The combined business is pitched as a “critical minerals champion”, with an industry‑leading copper portfolio alongside premium iron ore, zinc and crop nutrients – a structure clearly aimed at the long‑term electrification and decarbonisation trend. ^[15]

Independent reporting suggests the deal is worth around US$53–60 billion, which would make it one of the biggest mining transactions in more than a decade and the second‑largest in the sector’s history. ^[16]

Why BHP wanted Anglo – again

From BHP’s perspective, Anglo is a shortcut to more copper, the metal at the centre of both grid upgrades and the boom in electric vehicles.

Anglo’s assets include major copper operations in Chile and Peru, which would have slotted neatly alongside BHP’s own portfolio, from Escondida (where it already holds a stake) to Olympic Dam and other growth options. ^[17]
BHP has repeatedly told investors it expects structurally higher copper demand over coming decades as power networks, data centres and EVs expand, even as new supply becomes harder and more expensive to bring on line. ^[18]

The company already tried to buy Anglo in 2024, with a bid widely reported around US$49–75 billion depending on the stage of negotiations. That earlier attempt collapsed after the Anglo board and key stakeholders rejected the structure, which required significant asset disposals in South Africa. ^[19]

This time, sources quoted by Bloomberg and Mining.com say the proposal was simpler, with less emphasis on forced break‑ups, but still appears to have fallen short of what Anglo and its shareholders were willing to consider, especially with the Teck merger already agreed and backed by proxy adviser Glass Lewis. ^[20]

ASX 200 rebounds as Wall Street rallies and Qube attracts an $11.6b bid

While BHP’s takeover saga grabbed the headlines, the broader Australian sharemarket staged a recovery on Monday.

Index moves and macro backdrop

The ASX 200 climbed about 1% in early trade, to around 8,500 points, recouping part of last week’s losses. ^[21]
The bounce followed a strong Friday session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all gained close to 1% after comments from New York Fed president John Williams revived hopes of a December rate cut. ^[22]
Market pricing for a 25‑basis‑point move at the Fed’s December meeting has jumped sharply, with various estimates now putting the probability well above 60%, though officials remain divided. ^[23]

ABC’s live markets blog summarised the mood neatly: the local index opened about 1.1% higher, with the rally underpinned by rate‑cut optimism and a wave of corporate news led by Qube and BHP. ^[24]

Qube rockets on Macquarie takeover approach

The biggest single stock story on the ASX today is Qube Holdings, the logistics and rail operator.

Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) has lobbed an $11.6 billion takeover proposal, offering $5.20 a sharefor all of Qube’s stock in an all‑cash deal. ^[25]
The bid represents roughly a 27.8% premium to Qube’s last closing price on Friday, according to the company’s ASX statement. ^[26]
Qube told the market it had entered into a proposal deed granting Macquarie a period of exclusive due diligence through to 1 February 2026, and that its directors intend to unanimously recommend the scheme in the absence of a superior offer and provided an independent expert declares it fair and reasonable. ^[27]

That news sent Qube’s share price surging about 18% in early trade, making it one of the standout winners on the index and contributing significantly to the broader market’s gains. ^[28]

Lithium stocks wobble as Chinese futures tumble

Not all corners of the market are riding high.

ABC’s live blog flagged that ASX‑listed lithium names are under pressure after a dramatic move in China’s futures market:

China’s lithium carbonate futures dropped about 9% on Friday, hitting their daily limit. ^[29]
That slump followed signs that battery giant CATL may restart its flagship Jianxiawo mine, and a crackdown by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on speculative trading. ^[30]

Analysts at IG Markets, quoted by the ABC, suggested that after spectacular rallies of more than 280% from their 2025 lows for stocks such as Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources, a 15–20% pullback from recent peaks now looks “overdue and firmly in play”. ^[31]

For investors, the lithium complex is once again illustrating how policy moves and supply headlines in China can translate into sharp moves in Australian small and mid‑cap miners – often in a matter of hours.

How markets are reading BHP’s move

Relief more than disappointment

So far, the reaction to BHP’s decision to step back from Anglo looks more measured than shocked:

AAP’s coverage notes BHP’s ASX‑listed shares closed at $40.37 on Friday, giving the company a market value of about A$205 billion, before the latest weekend takeover headlines broke. ^[32]
Previous experience in 2024 showed that many investors welcomed BHP’s choice to abandon a US$49 billion Anglo pursuit, concerned about deal risk, political opposition and execution complexity. ^[33]

This time, the company’s messaging is squarely focused on capital discipline and organic copper growth – essentially telling the market it will chase the energy‑transition opportunity without overpaying for assets that may already be re‑rated.

Anglo and Teck: momentum back on their side

For Anglo American and Teck, BHP’s withdrawal removes a significant source of uncertainty in the lead‑up to their 9 December shareholder votes:

Anglo has already framed the Anglo Teck combination as a way to create a “global critical minerals champion”with a leading copper position and meaningful scale in iron ore and zinc. ^[34]
The deal has received a favourable recommendation from proxy adviser Glass Lewis, bolstering management’s case ahead of the vote. ^[35]

Unless another bidder emerges – always a possibility in a sector now buzzing with mega‑deal speculation – Anglo appears free to focus on selling the Teck merger, rather than defending against a renewed BHP assault.

What it all means for investors and the mining sector

1. Copper remains the battleground metal

Whether via Anglo Teck or BHP’s internal pipeline, today’s developments underline that copper is still the core strategic battleground for the world’s largest miners.

Anglo Teck will be one of the largest listed copper producers globally if the merger is approved. ^[36]
BHP, meanwhile, is signalling that its portfolio – spanning Chile, Peru and Australia – can deliver enough growth in copper, potash and other future‑facing commodities without the need for a transformative takeover at any price. ^[37]

Investors can expect continued M&A chatter in base metals, but today’s Rule 2.8 statement suggests BHP, at least, will be sitting on the sidelines in relation to Anglo for some time.

2. Deal‑making on the ASX is far from over

The Qube–Macquarie proposal reinforces a parallel theme on the domestic front: corporate buyers still see value on the ASX, particularly in infrastructure‑like, cash‑generating businesses such as logistics, ports and rail.

Coupled with rumblings of other private‑equity and trade bids highlighted in broker commentary and reports like FNArena’s Monday Report, today’s news flow hints that: ^[38]

Small and mid‑cap companies with strategic assets or recurring cashflows remain prime takeover candidates, and
A softer interest‑rate outlook – if the Fed and other central banks do start cutting – could lower funding costs, supporting more leveraged M&A.

3. Volatility is the new normal

Finally, the interplay between:

Fed rate‑cut bets,
a tech‑driven global sell‑off in recent weeks, ^[39]
sharp swings in commodity futures (like lithium), and
fast‑moving takeover headlines

is a reminder that volatility remains elevated across equities and commodities.

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, that means:

Expect abrupt sentiment shifts, particularly around major data releases (such as Australia’s new monthly CPI this week) and central‑bank speeches. ^[40]
Be prepared for headline‑driven price spikes – in both directions – when large‑cap names like BHP, Anglo or Teck are involved in M&A rumours.

Final word

On 24 November 2025, the market got clarity on one of its big “what ifs”: BHP will not, for now, be the spoiler of Anglo American’s Teck merger. Instead, the Australian giant is pitching a back‑to‑basics story of organic growth and disciplined capital allocation.

At the same time, the ASX 200’s rebound, Qube’s takeover premium and ongoing turbulence in lithium and AI‑linked stocks show that the broader investment landscape remains fluid and opportunity‑rich – but also unforgiving for those caught on the wrong side of the next headline.

This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Woodside Energy performs well on the ASX 200 after merging with BHP