Canada Stock Market Today: 12 Things to Know Before the TSX Opens on November 24, 2025

As the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) gears up to open on Monday, November 24, 2025, investors are stepping into a market shaped by cooling inflation at home, soft consumer demand, a dovish shift from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and a busy slate of Canadian data and earnings.

Below is a pre‑market rundown of what matters most for Canadian stocks today. All figures and events are based on information available as of early Monday and can change quickly once trading begins.

1. Where the TSX is starting the week

Canada’s main benchmark, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, ended Friday up 0.9% at 30,160.65, trimming its weekly loss to about 0.5%. Technology and financial stocks each gained roughly 1.3% on the day as investors priced in a higher chance of a U.S. rate cut in December. Energy was the only major sector to finish lower, pressured by weaker oil prices. ^[1]

The index is still trading just below its mid‑October record closing high around 30,600–30,700, leaving the TSX in “near‑record but volatile” territory rather than at obvious bargain levels. TechStock²

Why it matters:

The TSX is starting from strength, not distress, which can make it more sensitive to any disappointment in data or earnings.
Leadership is currently concentrated in tech, financials and gold miners, while pure‑play oil names remain under pressure.

2. Cooling inflation, softer consumer data set the domestic tone

Two recent data points from Statistics Canada continue to frame expectations for Canadian equities: TechStock²

Inflation: October CPI rose 2.2% year‑over‑year, down from 2.4% in September and now very close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
Retail sales: September retail sales fell 0.7%, led by auto‑related categories. A flash estimate suggests sales were roughly flat in October, pointing to weak real consumer spending.

Implications by sector:

Rate‑sensitive names – Utilities, REITs and some growth/tech names still benefit from the idea that the next big move in policy is more likely to be a cut than a hike.
Consumer discretionary – Retailers, auto‑exposed names and travel/leisure stocks face a tougher fundamental backdrop as households trim big‑ticket purchases.
Defensive sectors – Consumer staples, pipelines and telecoms may continue to appeal to investors seeking earnings stability in a sluggish growth environment.

3. Bank of Canada: paused now, December decision in focus

Markets are treating the Bank of Canada (BoC) as being in a holding pattern: most major bank economists expect the policy rate to remain around 2.25% through the end of 2025, with any additional easing more likely pushed into 2026 if growth disappoints further. TechStock²

The next BoC rate decision is scheduled for December 10, 2025, flagged as a key catalyst for bank stocks, rate‑sensitive sectors, and the Canadian dollar. TechStock²

What that means for today:

There is no policy announcement on Monday, but BoC expectations are already baked into valuations for:
- Banks and insurers, where investors are more focused on net interest margins and credit quality than on imminent rate moves.
- REITs and utilities, which are pricing in a world where the aggressive cutting cycle may be closer to pausing than accelerating.

4. Today’s Canadian data: busy, but not all “headline” numbers

While there is no CPI or GDP release today, Statistics Canada has a surprisingly full calendar for Monday, November 24, including: TechStock²

Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises (Q3 2025) – a broad look at corporate profitability across sectors.
Monthly Survey of Manufacturing – advance indicator for October – an early signal for industrial activity.
Natural gas transmission, storage and distribution (September) – relevant for energy and pipeline names.
Food services and drinking places (September) – a gauge of hospitality and restaurant trends.
Railway carloadings (September) – a proxy for goods movement and trade.

Individually, these numbers don’t usually move the entire index. But taken together, they help investors decide whether the Canadian economy is stabilising or still losing momentum, ahead of Q3 GDP data on Friday, November 28, which economists at RBC expect to show about 0.5% annualised growth after a 1.6% contraction in Q2. TechStock²+1

Cyclicals such as industrials, infrastructure plays, rails and some energy names are likely to react most to the tone of these releases.

5. Global backdrop: Fed cut hopes vs valuation and growth worries

Wall Street futures leaning higher

Overnight, U.S. equity futures rose as traders revived bets on a December interest‑rate cut by the Federal Reserve. An Investing.com market update noted that S&P 500 futures were up around 0.6%, with Nasdaq 100 futures ahead by about 0.8%, following a strong session on Friday. ^[2]

Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have recently indicated that another cut “in the near term” could be consistent with the inflation outlook, pushing market‑implied odds of a December move to roughly two‑thirds. ^[3]

A busy global macro week

The week‑ahead preview from S&P Global highlights several key global events that will influence risk sentiment: ^[4]

UK Autumn Budget 2025 on Wednesday – closely watched by bond and FX markets.
A cluster of U.S. data including producer prices, regional Fed surveys and consumer confidence.
Core PCE, personal income and spending and revised Q3 U.S. GDP mid‑week.
A raft of eurozone and Asian data including German Ifo, various GDP updates, and Japanese industrial production and retail sales.
Canada’s own GDP release on Friday, in a thin‑liquidity environment due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

What this means for the TSX today:

The market opens into a fragile but not outright bearish global environment: investors are torn between optimism on rate cuts and caution over valuations and growth.
Any surprise from U.S. or European data could quickly swing expectations for the Fed and, by extension, the BoC and global risk assets.

6. Commodities: soft oil, strong gold keep the TSX split

For the resource‑heavy TSX, oil and gold often matter as much as macro data.

Crude oil

Pre‑market snapshots show U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trading around US$57–58 and Brent crude near US$61–62, extending a recent losing streak tied to worries about demand and rising supply. ^[5]

Implications:

Poses a headwind for Canadian energy producers, particularly higher‑cost or oil‑sands‑heavy names.
Integrated majors with downstream and refining operations may hold up better than pure upstream producers.

Gold

By contrast, gold prices remain close to record highs, with recent quotes putting gold futures above US$4,100 an ounce after only a modest pullback late last week. ^[6]

Implications:

Supports precious‑metals miners and royalty companies on the TSX.
Adds to the appeal of materials‑heavy ETFs and gold‑linked small caps as macro hedges.

Overall, the pattern into Monday’s open looks familiar: energy under pressure, miners enjoying a tailwind.

7. The Canadian dollar: loonie still on the back foot

The Canadian dollar continues to trade on the weaker side against the U.S. dollar. A foreign‑exchange update from FX Leaders puts USD/CAD around 1.36, attributing the move to volatile oil prices and ongoing rate‑expectation debates. ^[7]

Reuters polling earlier in the month suggested that while the loonie could strengthen over the next year if Fed cuts drag the U.S. dollar lower, near‑term sentiment remains cautious. TechStock²

Sector angle:

A softer CAD tends to support exporters (manufacturers, resource producers and some tech names) whose revenues are denominated in U.S. dollars.
It pressures import‑heavy retailers and companies with significant foreign‑currency debt.

Watch for currency sensitivity in:

Energy and mining producers with CAD‑costs but USD‑revenues.
Cross‑listed tech names like Shopify, where U.S. trading often sets the tone and FX adds an extra twist to earnings translation. ^[8]

8. Corporate calendar: Couche‑Tard earnings and fresh buybacks

Alimentation Couche‑Tard (TSX: ATD)

One of today’s main single‑stock catalysts comes after the closing bell:

Alimentation Couche‑Tard is scheduled to report Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Monday, November 24, after the TSX close, with a conference call set for Tuesday at 8:00 a.m. ET. TechStock²
Analyst estimates cluster around EPS of roughly C$1.05, with investors focused on fuel margins, in‑store merchandise trends, and capital‑allocation plans, including share repurchases. TechStock²

Given Couche‑Tard’s size and global footprint, its commentary can affect sentiment not only in consumer and retail names, but also more broadly across Canadian defensives.

New or renewed share buybacks starting today

Several issuers have normal course issuer bids (NCIBs) kicking in as of November 24, which can provide a steady marginal bid for their shares: TechStock²

Boardwalk REIT (TSX: BEI.UN) – authorised to repurchase up to around 10% of its public float over the next 12 months.
Medexus Pharmaceuticals (TSX: MDP) – allowed to buy back close to 3 million shares, also roughly 10% of its public float.
Queen’s Road Capital (TSX: QRC) – continuing its NCIB program for another year.

Buybacks don’t guarantee gains, but they are frequently interpreted as a signal of management confidence in long‑term intrinsic value.

Other noteworthy corporate developments

Austral Gold announced that the TSX Venture Exchange has approved the issuance of just over 1 million shares in connection with repayment of accrued interest on previously issued convertible notes, a reminder that capital‑structure moves continue across the junior resource space. ^[9]
A number of smaller TSX and TSXV issuers – including Atlas Engineered Products, Cannara Biotech, Destiny Media, Nanalysis, QYOU Media and Sabio – are also slated to report today, which may drive stock‑specific volatility in cannabis, media and niche tech pockets of the market. TechStock²

9. Conferences and events: big‑cap commentary on deck

Beyond formal earnings, investors will also be listening to management commentary from major issuers:

BCE Inc. is scheduled to speak at the Desjardins Toronto Conference on Monday, November 24, at 1:15 p.m. ET, joining a slate of large‑cap financials and telecoms presenting to institutional investors. ^[10]

Such appearances can produce guidance updates, colour on capex plans, or commentary on the economic backdrop, all of which may ripple across sectors even in the absence of official earnings releases.

10. Climate and ESG themes: Canada Climate Week Xchange begins

Today also marks the start of Canada Climate Week Xchange (CCWX), running from November 24–30 and featuring multiple events hosted or co‑hosted by the Toronto Stock Exchange on topics including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and climate‑finance innovation. TechStock²

For investors in:

ESG‑focused strategies,
cleantech, and
carbon‑capture or transition‑energy plays,

the week could bring headline catalysts, policy signals or new partnership announcements that affect valuations.

11. Sectors and themes to watch at the open

Putting the pieces together, here’s how the major themes point sector‑by‑sector:

Banks & insurers: Supported by a BoC on pause and steep global yield curves, but sensitive to any signs of rising loan losses as consumer data soften.
Energy: Facing a near‑term drag from lower oil prices, with investor focus on balance‑sheet strength and capital‑return discipline.
Materials & gold miners: Benefiting from elevated gold prices and renewed demand for macro hedges.
Technology: Rebounding alongside U.S. tech as Fed cut hopes revive, but still exposed to global concerns about AI‑driven valuations and spending cycles. ^[11]
Real estate & utilities: Helped by the prospect of lower policy rates over time, yet constrained by sluggish growth and still‑elevated funding costs compared with the pre‑2022 era.
Consumer discretionary: Caught between cooler inflation (good for purchasing power) and weaker retail volumes (bad for top‑line growth), making stock selection crucial.

12. Quick checklist before the opening bell

For traders and investors following the Canadian market into today’s open, here’s a concise pre‑market checklist:

Overnight moves in oil and gold – will the usual energy‑vs‑miners tug‑of‑war dominate again? ^[12]
Updates to Fed rate‑cut odds – watch U.S. futures and any fresh Fed commentary; the TSX has been extremely sensitive to changes in December cut probabilities. ^[13]
Today’s Statistics Canada releases – especially the advance manufacturing indicator and Q3 corporate financial statistics, for clues on how broad the slowdown really is. TechStock²+1
Stocks with new or renewed buybacks – Boardwalk REIT, Medexus and Queen’s Road Capital may see extra support from NCIB activity. TechStock²
Positioning in Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD) ahead of its post‑close earnings report. TechStock²

Final note

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market conditions, data and prices can change rapidly, especially around major economic releases and central‑bank decisions. Always cross‑check the latest quotes and news and consider your own objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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