TOKYO — Monday, November 24, 2025
Japan’s stock market is technically “on holiday” today, but the story around Japanese assets is anything but quiet.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day (observed), so there is no cash trading in the Nikkei 225 or Topix on Monday. Instead, the action is in Nikkei 225 futures, the yen and Japanese government bonds, all of which are helping to set the tone for Tuesday’s reopen. [1]
Below is a detailed look at what’s driving the Japan stock market today (24 November 2025) and what it means for investors watching Nikkei 225 and Topix into tomorrow’s session.
Tokyo Stock Exchange Closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day
Japan’s cash equity markets — including the Tokyo Stock Exchange main board, JASDAQ and the Mothers/Growth section — are closed all day on Monday as the country observes Labor Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 23) on a substitute holiday. [2]
However, this does not mean Japan is absent from global markets:
- The Osaka Exchange and TOCOM derivatives markets remain open for “holiday trading”, allowing investors to hedge or speculate via Nikkei 225 futures and other contracts. [3]
- Overseas venues like the CME and SGX are also trading Nikkei-linked futures, adding a second layer of price discovery while cash equities are dark. TS2 Tech+1
Japanese stock markets will reopen on Tuesday, November 25, following normal cash trading hours. TS2 Tech+1
Where Japan Stocks Stand After Friday’s Sell-Off
Because Tokyo is closed today, the reference point for Japanese stocks is still Friday’s close:
- The Nikkei 225 fell about 2.4% on Friday to 48,625.88, finishing its worst week in months as investors dumped richly valued tech and AI names amid a global sell‑off. [4]
- The Topix index edged down roughly 0.1% to around 3,298, capping a weekly loss of nearly 2%. [5]
- Japan participated in a broader risk‑off move across Asia, where technology and chip stocks were hit hard on renewed worries that the AI boom has outrun fundamentals. [6]
Friday’s drop came on the heels of:
- Fresh concerns about an AI “bubble”, after volatile trading in Nvidia and other U.S. megacap tech names.
- Rising anxiety over Japan’s fiscal path, with markets digesting a massive new stimulus package (more on that below).
- A weaker yen and surging long‑dated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which together have fuelled talk of a “sell Japan” macro trade. [7]
All of this means today’s “quiet” holiday is actually a reset point after a bruising week for Japanese equities.
Nikkei 225 Futures Signal a Cautious Rebound
With cash markets shut, Nikkei 225 futures are the cleanest real‑time indicator of sentiment toward Japan stocks today.
- Holiday‑session trading on the Osaka Exchange shows December Nikkei 225 futures modestly above Friday’s close, hovering just under the ¥49,000 level, implying a small rebound when cash trading resumes. TS2 Tech+1
- On the CME, yen‑denominated Nikkei 225 futures traded with much lighter volume than usual — around 1,600 contracts versus more than 18,000 on Friday — and open interest dropped sharply by over 80,000 contracts, signalling a sizeable reduction in positions ahead of the holiday week and key central‑bank decisions. [8]
This pattern — slightly higher prices but thinner liquidity and shrinking open interest — suggests investors are:
- Reluctant to aggressively short Japan after the recent sell‑off.
- Yet still de‑risking into year‑end, preferring to trim exposure rather than double down on a bounce.
In short, Nikkei futures are pointing to a cautious rather than euphoric comeback when Tokyo reopens.
Yen Near 10‑Month Low Keeps Intervention Fears Alive
The other big Japan story today is the yen.
- On Monday, the dollar is trading around ¥156.5, not far from last week’s 10‑month low near ¥157.9 for the yen. [9]
- Japan’s Finance Ministry has stepped up verbal warnings against “one‑sided” currency moves, and several officials have hinted that intervention is on the table if volatility spikes or the yen lurches toward the ¥158–¥162 zone. [10]
Monday’s backdrop matters:
- Global FX markets are thin heading into U.S. Thanksgiving, a period that historically offers authorities a “prime window” for surprise intervention because liquidity is lower. [11]
- At the same time, investors are ramping up bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut rates in December, which has taken some upward pressure off the dollar, complicating the calculus for Japanese policymakers. [12]
For Japanese equities, the yen’s path is a two‑edged sword:
- A weak yen supports exporters like auto and machinery makers by boosting overseas earnings in yen terms.
- But if FX intervention triggers a sudden yen spike higher, it could hit exporter share prices and favour more domestically focused or defensive sectors.
BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build Into December
Adding another layer of complexity, markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates again in December.
- The BoJ has already exited negative rates and lifted its policy rate to 0.5% earlier this year.
- A Reuters poll now shows a slim majority of economists expect another hike at the December 18–19 meeting, likely taking the policy rate to around 0.75%. [13]
Recent comments from BoJ policymakers have reinforced that hawkish tilt:
- Board member Junko Koeda argued that the BoJ must continue normalising policy and raise real interest rates toward equilibrium, signalling she would support further hikes if inflation stays above target. [14]
- Fellow board member Kazuyuki Masu said the BoJ is “nearing” a decision to raise rates and will not wait for next year’s spring wage talks, effectively putting the December meeting “live” for a move. [15]
With core inflation around 3% and wage growth still firm, the BoJ faces a tricky balancing act:
- Move too slowly, and the yen may weaken further, exacerbating imported inflation and bond‑market stresses.
- Move too aggressively, and the BoJ risks tightening into a slowing economy, especially with exports already hit by higher U.S. tariffs and a soft global backdrop. TS2 Tech+1
For equity investors, this means rate‑sensitive sectors — banks, insurers, real estate, REITs and high‑dividend “bond proxy” stocks — are all in play once Tokyo reopens.
Takaichi’s ¥21.3 Trillion Stimulus Fuels a “Sell Japan” Narrative
Another major driver of Japan‑related trades today is the new fiscal stimulus package under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
- On November 21, the cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion (about $135 billion) stimulus package, including ¥17.7 trillion in spending and about ¥2.7 trillion in tax cuts — the largest such package since the COVID‑19 pandemic. [16]
- The plan includes cash handouts, energy subsidies, gas tax cuts and support for households and exporters, aimed at offsetting higher living costs and the drag from U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods. [17]
Markets, however, are uneasy:
- Long‑dated JGB yields have surged to multi‑decade or record highs — with the 10‑year around 1.7–1.8%, and 30‑ and 40‑year yields pushing into the 3.3–3.7% range. [18]
- A Reuters analysis describes a scramble to “sell Japan” as investors simultaneously dump yen and super‑long JGBs, driving up borrowing costs and raising uncomfortable comparisons with the UK’s 2022 “mini‑budget” crisis. [19]
For equities, the message is mixed:
- Higher long‑term yields can support banks’ net interest margins, which is positive for megabanks and some insurers.
- But the combination of rising yields, weak currency and nervous foreign investors has weighed on valuations, particularly for rate‑sensitive sectors and high‑dividend “bond proxies”.
This fiscal‑monetary tug‑of‑war is one of the big themes global investors are debating today while Tokyo is offline.
China Travel Warning Puts Tourism and Retail in the Crosshairs
On top of domestic issues, Japan is dealing with a diplomatic and tourism shock from China:
- Beijing recently issued a travel advisory urging Chinese citizens to avoid Japan, citing safety concerns amid a deepening dispute over comments by Prime Minister Takaichi about Taiwan. [20]
- Analysts estimate the boycott could cut Japan’s GDP by roughly ¥2.2 trillion per year, given that tourism accounts for around 7% of GDP and Chinese visitors are a key revenue source. [21]
- Tourism‑sensitive stocks have already been hit hard: department‑store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi fell about 10–11%, Tokyo Disneyland operator Oriental Land nearly 6%, and Japan Airlines around 4% in recent sessions. [22]
Even though there is no cash trading today, this China–Japan travel spat is very much part of the story that will shape positioning in:
- Airlines, hotels and rail operators
- Department stores and duty‑free retailers
- Theme parks and leisure names
- Luxury and China‑exposed consumer brands
Come Tuesday, these names are likely to remain in the firing line if there are any new headlines out of Beijing or Tokyo.
Global Market Mood While Tokyo Is Offline
While Japanese cash equities are closed, global markets are trading the Japan story indirectly through:
- Global equities: World stocks started the week on a firmer footing, with investors increasingly pricing a U.S. Fed rate cut in December, giving a lift to risk assets. [23]
- Asia ex‑Japan: Several Asian markets — including Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia — moved higher today, helped by a rebound in tech and chip stocks and lower oil prices. [24]
- Commodities: Oil continues to drift in the low‑$60s for Brent and high‑$50s for WTI, in part on hopes for progress in Russia–Ukraine peace efforts and signs of softer demand — a mix that tends to help Japan’s trade balance but also hints at weaker global growth. TS2 Tech+1
All of this will be “downloaded” into Japanese asset prices once the TSE reopens, amplifying whatever message is coming from the yen, JGB yields and local politics.
Key Themes to Watch When Japan Stocks Reopen on Tuesday
Even though Monday brings no new cash market close, today’s moves in derivatives, FX and bonds are setting up Tuesday’s playbook for the Nikkei 225 and Topix.
1. Do Cash Stocks Follow Nikkei Futures Higher?
- With Nikkei futures modestly above Friday’s close, a relief bounce at the open is possible.
- But after a 3.5% weekly drop and relentless headlines on fiscal and FX risks, any early strength could meet selling from investors looking to cut risk into year‑end. [25]
2. Yen Path and Intervention Risk
- If USD/JPY drifts back toward the 158–160 area, markets will likely crank up talk of MoF/BoJ intervention, particularly with thin U.S. holiday liquidity. [26]
- A sudden yen spike higher on intervention could weigh on exporters and cyclical manufacturers but boost domestic demand plays and some financials.
3. Super‑Long JGB Yields and Rate‑Sensitive Sectors
- With 30‑ and 40‑year JGB yields hovering near record highs, bond‑proxy equities — real estate, high‑yield utilities, REITs — are vulnerable to further de‑rating. [27]
- Banks and insurers may benefit from a steeper yield curve, as long as bond‑market volatility does not morph into broader financial stress.
4. Tech, AI and Chip‑Equipment Volatility
- Japan’s semiconductor and AI‑linked names — from Tokyo Electron and Advantest to cloud‑exposed software plays — remain tightly tethered to global tech sentiment.
- After recent AI‑related volatility on Wall Street, these names could see outsized swings as traders reassess valuations and demand expectations. [28]
5. Tourism and China‑Linked Consumer Plays
- Stocks tied to inbound Chinese tourism and cross‑border shopping will likely remain under pressure as long as Beijing’s travel advisory is in effect and airlines are offering refunds on Japan‑bound tickets. [29]
Quick FAQ: Japan Stock Market on 24 November 2025
Is the Tokyo Stock Exchange open today?
No. The TSE and other JPX cash markets are closed on Monday, November 24, 2025, for the observed Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday. [30]
Are any Japan markets trading?
Yes. Nikkei 225 futures and other derivatives continue to trade on the Osaka Exchange and overseas venues, providing a real‑time read on sentiment toward Japanese equities. [31]
When do Japan stocks reopen?
Cash trading in the Nikkei 225 and Topix resumes on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, during normal hours (09:00–11:30 and 12:30–15:00 JST). TS2 Tech+1
What are the biggest drivers for the next session?
- The yen, especially any surprise FX intervention
- BoJ rate‑hike expectations into the December meeting
- Market reaction to Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package
- Ongoing China–Japan tensions and travel restrictions
- Global risk appetite and tech sentiment coming from the U.S. and Europe
Bottom Line
On paper, Japan’s stock market is closed today, but in practice 24 November 2025 is a crucial setup day for the next leg of the Nikkei 225 and Topix:
- Holiday trading in futures, a weak yen, record‑high long‑term bond yields, a huge fiscal package and a live BoJ rate‑hike debate are all intersecting at once.
- Meanwhile, a China travel boycott, AI valuation jitters and Fed‑cut hopes ensure that Tokyo’s next open will be shaped as much by global forces as by domestic politics and data.
For investors and traders, the message from “Japan stock market today” is simple:
no new cash close — but plenty of signals to watch before the opening bell rings in Tokyo tomorrow.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.jpx.co.jp, 2. www.jpx.co.jp, 3. www.jpx.co.jp, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.brecorder.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.ft.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.brecorder.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.ft.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.jpx.co.jp, 31. www.jpx.co.jp
