Sydney – Wednesday, 26 November 2025 – Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) shares were trading higher today as investors continued to digest the bank’s recent half-year 2026 (HY26) result, a higher interim dividend and a headline-grabbing A$11.6 billion takeover bid for logistics group Qube Holdings. [1]
Macquarie (ASX:MQG) share price today
By late morning trade in Sydney, Macquarie Group shares were changing hands at around A$196–A$197, up roughly 2%–2.5% compared to yesterday’s close. Data from multiple market providers shows MQG recently quoted near A$196.19–A$196.45, with an intraday gain of just over 2%. [2]
Trading ranges indicate a relatively active session:
- Day’s range: roughly A$194.15 to A$197.47 [3]
- Volume: around 170,000 shares so far, versus an average daily volume close to 190,000 shares over the past year [4]
- 52-week range: approximately A$160.00 to A$242.90, leaving today’s price in the lower half of its one-year trading band [5]
Despite today’s bounce, Macquarie’s share price is still well below levels above A$220 seen in late October and remains down by a mid‑teens percentage over the past 12 months, even as Australia’s broader financials index has risen over the same period. [6]
How HY26 earnings reshaped sentiment on MQG stock
Macquarie’s current trading levels can’t be separated from its HY26 result, released on 7 November.
The group reported net profit after tax of A$1,655 million for the half year ended 30 September 2025, up 3% on the prior corresponding period but down 21% on the second half of FY25. [7]
Key headline metrics from Macquarie’s own release and subsequent market commentary include: [8]
- Net operating income: A$8.69 billion, up 6% year-on-year
- Operating expenses: A$6.24 billion, up 5% year-on-year
- Assets under management: A$959.1 billion, up 5% year-on-year
- Annualised return on equity (ROE): 9.6%, down from 11.2% in FY25
- Group capital surplus: A$7.6 billion; Bank Level 2 CET1 ratio 12.4% under APRA rules
While profits grew modestly, they still missed market expectations. Reuters reported that first-half net profit of around A$1.66 billion was roughly 12% below the Visible Alpha consensus of A$1.86 billion, prompting a sharp share price reaction on result day. [9]
On 7 November, MQG shares fell about 5.7% and were left down around 7.6% year to date, compared with a near 14% rise in Australia’s financials index at that time. [10]
Segment snapshot: strength in mortgages and asset management, pressure in commodities
Under the hood, Macquarie’s four key operating groups delivered a mixed but generally resilient performance: [11]
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM)
- Net profit contribution: A$1,175 million, up 43% on 1H25
- Driven by higher performance fees and strong infrastructure and data‑centre related earnings
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS)
- Net profit contribution: A$793 million, up 22%
- The home-loan book grew about 13%, lifting Macquarie’s Australian mortgage market share to around 6.5%
- Over 95% of new mortgages now originate via the broker channel, highlighting the bank’s digital platforms and turn‑around speed as competitive advantages [12]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM)
- Net profit contribution: A$1,113 million, 15% lower than the prior period
- Macquarie flagged a “very subdued” commodities trading environment, noting that lower volatility reduced earnings from its commodities unit, historically one of the bank’s biggest profit drivers [13]
- Macquarie Capital
- Net profit contribution: A$711 million, up 92% year-on-year
- Supported by higher mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and brokerage fee income as deal activity picked up
Analysts have generally characterised the result as showing a transition in earnings mix—with “capital light” businesses like asset management and retail banking growing, while more cyclical trading and commodities income normalise from record levels. [14]
However, the earnings miss versus consensus and weaker CGM contribution help explain why the share price derated sharply following the announcement and has only partially recovered into today’s rally. [15]
Dividend and capital management: A$2.80 interim payout and ongoing buyback
Income-focused investors continue to watch Macquarie’s dividend and capital management strategy closely.
For HY26, the board declared an interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share, 35% franked, representing a payout ratio of about 64% of earnings. [16]
Key dates around the interim dividend are: [17]
- Ex‑dividend date: 17 November 2025
- Record date: 18 November 2025
- Payment date: 17 December 2025
At today’s share price near A$196, the interim dividend alone equates to a yield of roughly 1.4% for the half-year, before any benefit from franking credits. If Macquarie were to repeat a similar dividend in the second half (which is not guaranteed), that would imply an annualised cash yield of about 2.8% at current levels.
Alongside dividends, the group is continuing a share buyback program of up to A$2 billion. Macquarie disclosed that it had already bought back about A$1 billion of stock as at early November and will extend the program for another 12 months, reinforcing management’s view that the shares remain an attractive use of excess capital. [18]
With a CET1 ratio of 12.4%, a capital surplus of A$7.6 billion and solid liquidity metrics (LCR 173%, NSFR 113%), Macquarie still sits comfortably above regulatory minimums even after buybacks and dividends. [19]
Qube bid puts Macquarie back in the M&A spotlight
Today’s strength in MQG also comes against the backdrop of a major new deal that showcases Macquarie’s appetite for infrastructure and logistics assets.
On 24 November, Macquarie Asset Management launched an A$11.6 billion (enterprise value) takeover proposal for Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB), Australia’s largest integrated import–export logistics operator. [20]
According to Reuters, key features of the indicative offer include: [21]
- Cash offer: A$5.20 per Qube share
- Premium: About 27.8% to Qube’s last closing price before the bid
- Qube share reaction: rallied nearly 20% to a record A$4.89, before closing at A$4.86
- Structure: Enterprise value includes roughly A$2.3 billion in debt
- Exclusivity: Qube has granted Macquarie an exclusivity period for due diligence, currently set to run until 1 February 2026
If completed, the Qube deal would be one of Australia’s largest transactions in 2025, highlighting both Macquarie’s firepower and its focus on fee‑generating, infrastructure‑linked investments. [22]
For MQG shareholders, the proposal underscores several themes:
- Potential for higher management and performance fees via Macquarie’s asset management arm
- Increased exposure to ports and logistics, sectors that could benefit from global trade normalisation and infrastructure spending
- Execution and regulatory risk, given the deal size and the need for approvals and successful integration
How the Qube bid progresses—and whether competing offers emerge—will be a key storyline for Macquarie over coming months.
Technical and valuation context for MQG stock
From a market-structure perspective, MQG is in a recovery phase after a sharp de-rating post‑results:
- The share price slid from around A$218–A$220 in early November to intraday lows near A$190–A$192 last week. [23]
- Today’s move back toward A$196–A$197 leaves the stock still well below its 52‑week high near A$243, but comfortably above its recent low. [24]
Data from Investing.com suggests Macquarie’s share price is down by roughly a mid‑teens percentage year-on-year, even after today’s bounce, underperforming the broader Australian financials sector. [25]
For long-term investors, that combination of lower valuation, growing fee-based and retail banking earnings, and continuing capital returns is central to the current MQG debate. But the same metrics also leave the stock sensitive to:
- The pace of global deal-making and capital markets activity
- Commodities volatility, which heavily influences CGM profitability
- Regulatory and compliance pressures, including remediation costs in areas like structured products and renewable-energy financing [26]
What the market is watching next
Analysts and institutional investors are now focusing on several forward-looking questions:
- Can Macquarie hit FY26 profit expectations?
Visible Alpha data cited by Reuters puts consensus full-year net profit around A$4.2 billion. UBS analysts noted that the bank will need a much stronger second half to meet that figure, particularly if CGM earnings stay subdued. [27] - Will BFS maintain its growth without sacrificing margins?
Macquarie’s rapid mortgage expansion—doubling its mortgage book in five years and capturing a 6.5% share—has been a major driver of earnings. Markets will be watching for evidence that net interest margins can be maintained in an increasingly competitive home-loan market. [28] - How will CGM perform if commodities volatility remains muted?
Management has signalled that second-half CGM performance is expected to be broadly in line with the first half, implying no quick bounce back from the 15% profit decline. Any surprise pickup (or further slowdown) in commodities trading could materially impact full-year earnings. [29] - What does the Qube transaction mean for capital and risk?
The Qube bid would deploy significant balance-sheet and fund capital into a single large infrastructure platform. Investors will want clarity on the funding mix, expected returns and timeline to completion, along with any implications for Macquarie’s ongoing buyback and future dividends. [30] - Regulatory environment and governance
Recent remediation commitments, such as repayments related to the now-collapsed Shield Master Fund, and an ongoing audit transition to KPMG from 2027, underline that regulatory and governance issues remain front of mind. [31]
Key takeaways for MQG on 26 November 2025
- MQG is trading higher today, around A$196–A$197, up just over 2% from yesterday’s close, but still well below its 52‑week high. [32]
- The HY26 result showed solid underlying growth across asset management, retail banking and investment banking, but a miss versus consensus and weaker commodities earnings weighed on market sentiment. [33]
- Macquarie has boosted capital returns via a higher A$2.80 interim dividend and an extended A$2 billion buyback, supported by strong capital and liquidity ratios. [34]
- The proposed A$11.6 billion Qube acquisition reinforces Macquarie’s position as a global infrastructure and alternatives powerhouse and could be one of the largest Australian deals of 2025. [35]
- Going forward, investors are focused on second‑half earnings power, the trajectory of CGM, and how effectively Macquarie can convert its M&A pipeline and expanding mortgage book into sustainable returns on equity. [36]
Important: This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Consider your own objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.macquarie.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.macquarie.com, 8. www.macquarie.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.macquarie.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.macquarie.com, 14. www.proactiveinvestors.com.au, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.macquarie.com, 17. www.macquarie.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.macquarie.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.macquarie.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.macquarie.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.macquarie.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.macquarie.com, 34. www.macquarie.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.macquarie.com
