Canada Stock Market Today: 7 Things to Know Before the TSX Opens on November 26, 2025

TORONTO – Canada’s stock market heads into Wednesday’s session near record territory, with futures pointing to a mildly positive open as investors weigh rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, softer oil prices, and fresh signals on Canada’s housing and IPO outlook. ^[1]

Below is a detailed rundown of what’s shaping the mood before the opening bell.

1. Where the TSX Stands After Tuesday’s Rally

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed Tuesday at 30,900.65, up about 0.97% (roughly 296 points), leaving the benchmark just below its recent record high and up more than 21% over the past year. ^[2]

Gains were broad-based but tilted toward consumer and technology shares, while energy lagged as oil prices slipped. ^[3]

One standout was Alimentation Couche‑Tard, which jumped around 5% after reporting stronger same‑store sales and profit growth in its latest quarter. ^[4] Consumer staples helped offset weakness in energy stocks, a theme that could persist today if oil remains under pressure. ^[5]

In other words: the TSX enters Wednesday not as a battered bargain, but as a market priced for reasonably good news.

2. Futures Signal a Slightly Higher Open

Index futures tied to the S&P/TSX were modestly higher in early trading, helped by renewed optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a December rate cut after a run of softer economic data. ^[6]

Globally, risk appetite looks constructive:

U.S. stock futures are up about 0.2%–0.3% ahead of key U.S. data, extending Tuesday’s Wall Street rally. ^[7]
Asian markets traded higher overnight as investors bet more firmly on lower U.S. rates, with the Nikkei and other regional benchmarks gaining on tech strength. ^[8]
European indices are also in the green this morning, riding the same Fed‑cut narrative. ^[9]

For Canadian investors, the message from futures and overseas markets is straightforward: sentiment is cautiously risk‑on, but heavily dependent on the idea that central banks – especially the Fed – are closer to loosening policy.

3. Oil Still Soft, Gold Supportive – A Split Signal for Resource Stocks

Resource prices, the lifeblood of the TSX, are sending mixed signals before the open.

Crude Oil: Trying to Stabilize After a Slide

Benchmark crude is trading near US$58 per barrel, having fallen to a one‑month low earlier this week. Over the last month, oil is still down roughly 5–6%, and about 15% over the past year, underscoring persistent concerns about supply and demand. ^[10]

Overnight:

Oil edged higher in early Asian trade after Tuesday’s drop, helped by bargain hunting but capped by expectations of comfortable global supplies. ^[11]
Weaker crude weighed on Gulf markets earlier today, highlighting how sensitive energy-heavy indices are to any renewed downside. ^[12]

For the TSX, that sets up a tug‑of‑war: energy names like Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources may see some relief if oil’s rebound holds, but the broader trend is still one of pressure on margins and cash flows. Recent commentary on Suncor’s valuation has emphasized that, even after Q3 earnings beat expectations, the stock trades against a backdrop of volatile crude and cautious forecasts. ^[13]

Gold: Benefitting from Rate‑Cut Bets

By contrast, gold prices have been supported by growing expectations of Fed easing. Spot gold is hovering around US$4,130 per ounce, with futures near US$4,165, only slightly softer this morning after a recent run‑up. ^[14]

Higher gold prices continue to underpin Canada’s precious‑metals miners, including Barrick and intermediate producers. That said, Barrick’s stock remains volatile as the company digests the resolution of a tax dispute with Mali, which included the release of detained employees and a sizable settlement. ^[15]

Bottom line for resource investors: expect gold miners to retain a relative tailwind, while oil producers may trade more on intra‑day crude swings and headlines than on any clear fundamental trend.

4. The Loonie Is Firming as “Commodity Currencies” Catch a Bid

The Canadian dollar (the loonie) is a quiet but important part of today’s story.

USD/CAD is trading around 1.40–1.41, meaning one U.S. dollar buys roughly C$1.40. ^[16]
That’s a slight firming in the loonie versus recent levels, as part of a broader move higher in commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) on improved risk sentiment. ^[17]

The loonie is still considerably weaker than early‑year levels, which is a double‑edged sword:

It supports exporters and resource producers by making Canadian output cheaper in global markets.
It pressures import‑heavy sectors and consumers, particularly on energy imports and U.S.‑dollar denominated goods.

For the TSX, a slightly stronger but still historically weak loonie tends to be mildly supportive for large exporters and multinationals, but investors will watch whether today’s FX move persists once U.S. data hits.

5. Bank of Canada Backdrop: A Fresh Rate Cut and a Likely Pause

Even though there is no Bank of Canada rate decision today, the central bank’s recent moves form the backdrop for everything on the TSX.

On October 29, the Bank of Canada cut its key overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since mid‑2022. ^[18]

Key points from recent BoC communications:

The October cut was framed as possibly the last of the current easing cycle unless growth or inflation deteriorate materially. ^[19]
The Bank has repeatedly highlighted weak productivity and underinvestment as structural challenges that limit Canada’s non‑inflationary growth potential. ^[20]

Private‑sector economists now broadly expect the policy rate to stay around 2.25% through at least 2026, with only limited odds of further cuts next year. ^[21]

Sector implications before the open:

Rate‑sensitive areas – such as real estate, utilities, telecoms, and high‑dividend infrastructure names – may continue to enjoy support from lower yields.
However, Canadian banks are no longer seen as “cheap.” Jefferies recently argued that the major banks, including Royal Bank of Canada, are fully valued heading into Q4 results, trimming ratings even as RY’s forward dividend yield hovers close to 3%. ^[22]

Investors going into today’s session should assume no central‑bank surprises, but a market that is still adjusting to a lower‑for‑longer rate path.

6. Macro Data and Events on Today’s Calendar

There is no major domestic Canadian data release scheduled first thing this morning, but Canadian assets will trade in the shadow of an important U.S. data cluster.

According to major economic calendars, Wednesday’s lineup in the U.S. includes: ^[23]

Labor market data, including weekly initial jobless claims
Retail sales and related consumption indicators
Price metrics such as core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Durable goods orders, personal income and spending, and new home sales later in the day
The Fed’s Beige Book, offering a qualitative snapshot of economic conditions across U.S. districts

These reports land only a day after Wall Street’s strong rally and ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, when markets will be closed Thursday and operate on shortened hours Friday. ^[24]

On the domestic front:

The Government of Canada will hold a technical media briefing on “key sectors” at 1:00 p.m. ET, which could generate headlines affecting specific industries such as energy, housing, or manufacturing. ^[25]
In real estate, RE/MAX Canada’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook, released today, projects national home sales rising 3.4% next year as more buyers re‑enter the market, a theme echoed in other housing commentary about renewed buyer intent despite economic anxiety. ^[26]

For TSX traders, this means most of the big macro catalysts are south of the border, but domestic housing and policy headlines could still move rate‑sensitive names later in the session.

7. Stock and Sector Stories to Watch at the Open

While broad futures and macro data matter, many investors will be focused on company‑specific catalysts that could drive moves in individual names and sectors:

a) Consumer & Retail: Couche‑Tard and Confidence

Alimentation Couche‑Tard (ATD) remains in focus after its strong Q2 report, where higher same‑store sales supported profit growth and triggered multiple analyst reaffirmations of bullish price targets. ^[27]
Broader Canadian consumer sentiment is mixed, but the housing outlook suggests pockets of resilience, particularly among households still planning major purchases such as homes. ^[28]

A firm open in consumer staples could help offset any renewed pressure on energy if oil wobbles again.

b) Energy: Suncor and the Oil Sands Complex

Suncor Energy remains a bellwether after posting Q3 earnings that beat forecasts earlier this month, even as both revenue and earnings declined year‑over‑year. ^[29]
Valuation debates around Suncor and its peers now hinge less on last quarter’s numbers and more on forward oil price assumptions and the pace of capital returns (dividends and buybacks). ^[30]

If crude stabilizes above its recent lows, energy could see selective bargain hunting, though the sector remains exposed to any renewed downside in oil.

c) Materials: Barrick and the Miners

Barrick is trading with the cross‑currents of firmer gold prices and lingering sector jitters. The company recently resolved a C$430 million‑plus tax dispute with Mali, which removed a key overhang but didn’t eliminate volatility in the shares. ^[31]
For the wider materials group, gold’s strength and constructive signals on industrial metals provide a supportive backdrop heading into the session. ^[32]

d) Financials: Banks at “Full Value”

Jefferies’ recent note characterizing Canadian banks as “fully valued” ahead of Q4 has put the sector under a bit more scrutiny, with Royal Bank of Canada among those facing rating cuts or target trims. ^[33]
At the same time, stable dividends – RY’s forward yield is just under 3% – and a lower BoC policy rate keep bank stocks attractive for income‑oriented investors. ^[34]

Expect muted but important rotation within financials, as investors balance valuation concerns with the sector’s role as a core TSX anchor.

e) Market Infrastructure & IPO Pipeline: TMX Group

TMX Group, the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, told Reuters it expects a “big pickup” in IPO activity heading into 2026, citing a strong pipeline and renewed interest following deals like Rockpoint Gas Storage’s C$704 million IPO. ^[35]

This is more of a medium‑term story than a day‑trade catalyst, but it reinforces the idea that Canadian equity markets are re‑opening for new issuers, a positive sign for brokers, advisers, and equity capital markets desks.

What It All Means for Investors This Morning

Going into the Canadian open on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, the setup looks like this:

The TSX is starting from a position of strength, near record highs after Tuesday’s rally. ^[36]
Futures and global markets point to a mildly positive, risk‑on tone, driven by expectations of a December Fed rate cut. ^[37]
Oil remains the main drag, while gold and a softer rate environment support miners, real estate, and other yield‑focused sectors. ^[38]
The loonie is firming modestly, but still weak enough to be a tailwind for exporters. ^[39]
Today’s key catalysts are largely U.S. data releases and any headlines from Ottawa’s technical briefing and Canada’s evolving housing narrative. ^[40]

For traders and longer‑term investors alike, the pre‑open message is clear: this is still a momentum‑driven, macro‑sensitive market, but one where sector rotation – between energy, miners, banks, and defensives – may matter as much as the headline index level.

Stay focused on the interaction between Fed expectations, commodity prices, and domestic policy headlines; that trio is likely to set the tone not just for today’s open, but for how the TSX trades into the last stretch of 2025.

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