US Stock Market Open Today, Nov. 26, 2025: 7 Things to Know Before the Bell

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher on Wednesday morning as Wall Street leans into an AI-driven rebound, growing confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut, and a packed slate of economic data and earnings heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at what matters before the U.S. stock market opens today, November 26, 2025.

1. Market snapshot: futures higher ahead of Thanksgiving

Futures suggest a positive start for the major U.S. indexes:

Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 0.5%.
S&P 500 futures are higher by roughly 0.3–0.4%.
Dow Jones futures are ahead by about 0.25–0.3%. ^[2]

These moves come after a strong Tuesday session in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 1.4%, the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite added about 0.7%, extending a multi-day rally fueled by softer economic data and rising rate‑cut expectations. ^[3]

Overnight:

Asia-Pacific equities traded mostly higher, with a broad regional index up about 1% and Japan’s Nikkei advancing close to 1.9% as investors bet on easier U.S. policy and follow-through from Wall Street’s rebound. ^[4]
European futures and early cash trading are also in the green, helped by optimism over Fed cuts and a focus on the U.K.’s Autumn Budget later today. ^[5]

Key cross‑asset signals before the open:

The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield is trading near 4.0%, up slightly after briefly dipping below that level on Tuesday. ^[6]
The U.S. dollar index is under pressure after softer inflation data, while
WTI crude oil is hovering around $58 per barrel, and
Gold is trading near a two‑week high around $4,150 per ounce. ^[7]
Bitcoin is steady around $87,000, reflecting modest risk-on appetite in digital assets as well. ^[8]

U.S. equity markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, so trading volumes today are likely to thin as the day progresses. ^[9]

2. Rate‑cut hopes: markets now see a December move as very likely

The main macro backdrop for today’s open is a rapid shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

A batch of delayed economic releases—catching up after the earlier 43‑day U.S. government shutdown—showed:

September retail sales rising about 0.2% month over month, below consensus and weaker than the summer pace. ^[10]
Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation for September came in modest, with core inflation nearly flat on the month, reinforcing a disinflation trend. ^[11]
Consumer confidence has fallen to roughly a seven‑month low, with expectations for the near future dropping sharply amid worries about jobs and the broader economy. ^[12]

Taken together, those data and dovish commentary from Fed officials have pushed Fed funds futures to price roughly an 80–85% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut in December, up from about 50% just a week ago. ^[13]

Several analysts now describe this as the Fed’s third and likely final rate cut of 2025, with markets increasingly focused on how fast policy might ease through 2026. ^[14]

For equity investors ahead of the open, the logic is straightforward:

Lower rate expectations support valuations for growth and tech stocks.
Weaker data, however, also raise questions about how resilient the consumer and corporate earnings will be into 2026.

That tension—between easier policy and a cooling economy—is the macro lens for nearly every trading decision today.

3. Data deluge today: jobless claims, GDP, durable goods and the Beige Book

Today’s U.S. economic calendar is unusually packed, and several releases hit before or around the opening bell, with more arriving later in the session. According to schedules from major data providers and brokers, key U.S. releases on Wednesday, November 26, 2025 include: ^[15]

Weekly initial jobless claims
Quarterly GDP updates (including revisions and related series from the Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Durable goods orders for September
Building permits and new home sales
Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge)
EIA crude oil inventories
The Fed’s Beige Book – a qualitative survey of economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 districts

Many of these releases cluster around the traditional 8:30 a.m. ET data window, just ahead of or overlapping with the cash open, while the Beige Book typically drops mid‑afternoon U.S. time. ^[16]

Why it matters for the open:

Jobless claims will be scrutinized for confirmation that the labor market is softening but not collapsing.
GDP and durable goods numbers will help investors gauge whether business investment is holding up or rolling over.
Core PCE is critical for validating the disinflation story underpinning rate‑cut hopes.
The Beige Book could refine the narrative by highlighting how businesses are actually experiencing demand, wages and credit conditions on the ground.

Because many of these reports were rescheduled after the shutdown, analysts warn that data noise and revisions may be larger than usual, potentially increasing intraday volatility even if headline prints look benign at first glance. ^[17]

4. Deere, Li Auto & co.: earnings before the U.S. market open

Several notable companies report before the bell today, and their numbers will help shape sector sentiment:

Deere & Company (DE)

Deere is due to report Q4 2025 results before the U.S. market opens, followed by an earnings call around 10:00 a.m. ET. ^[18]
Consensus estimates call for EPS in the mid‑$3 range (around $3.85–$3.96) on revenue close to $9.8–$9.9 billion, with analysts expecting lower year‑over‑year earnings but modest revenue growth as margins feel pressure from costs and tariffs. ^[19]
Deere is widely watched as a bellwether for global agriculture and farm equipment capex, so commentary on demand, pricing, and farmer finances will matter beyond the stock itself.

Pre‑market pricing from extended trading shows Deere shares trading modestly higher versus yesterday’s close, as investors position ahead of the print. ^[20]

Li Auto (LI) and China‑linked names

Li Auto is also scheduled to deliver Q3 results pre‑market, with consensus expecting roughly $0.04 EPS on $3.7+ billion in revenue. ^[21]
The company’s shares gained more than 1% in after‑hours trading Tuesday, suggesting investors are cautiously optimistic heading into the release. ^[22]

Investor focus here is on EV demand in China, margin trends under pricing pressure, and any commentary on export ambitions, all of which can spill over into broader sentiment on U.S.-listed Chinese growth stocks.

Other pre‑market earnings to watch

According to multiple earnings calendars, several smaller or mid‑cap names also report before the open today, including: ^[23]

Super Hi (HDL) – Q3 2025
Chems or media/tech names like CMCM, AMBR, GOTU and EH – various Q3 updates
LEE Enterprises (LEE) – Q4 2025

Individually, these companies are niche, but they can move options markets, small‑cap indices, and sentiment in their respective industries.

5. Dell, HP, NetApp and Workday: last night’s tech earnings shape today’s tape

Tech and enterprise IT were in focus after Tuesday’s closing bell, and those moves will echo in today’s session.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

Dell reported mixed Q3 numbers but raised its full‑year outlook, now guiding fiscal 2026 revenue to roughly $111–112 billion, up from prior guidance of $105–109 billion. ^[24]
The company also lifted its full‑year adjusted EPS forecast from $9.55 to about $9.92 per share, above prior market expectations. ^[25]
Dell highlighted strong momentum in AI servers, saying shipments are expected to more than double, which helped drive the stock up about 4–5% in after‑hours and pre‑market trading. ^[26]

Investors will watch whether that strength pulls broader AI infrastructure and data‑center names higher at the open.

HP Inc. (HPQ)

HP beat Q4 expectations with $0.93 EPS (vs. $0.92 expected) and revenue around $14.6 billion, slightly ahead of consensus. ^[27]
However, the company paired those results with layoff announcements and weaker forward guidance, leading the stock to drop around 4–5% in after‑hours trading and remain under pressure pre‑market. ^[28]

The message: PC and printer demand looks stable enough for a beat, but management is still bracing for a tougher environment and looking to cut costs. The stock will be a key tell for legacy hardware and PC‑linked names today.

NetApp (NTAP) and Workday (WDAY)

NetApp delivered better‑than‑expected Q2 results and raised its FY26 guidance, sending the stock up nearly 5% after hours. ^[29]
Workday raised its own full‑year forecast, but according to pre‑market coverage, the stock is facing some profit‑taking after a strong run, illustrating investor caution on richly valued software names even when fundamentals improve. ^[30]

This cluster of reports sets up a nuanced open for tech: AI‑exposed infrastructure and storage are getting rewarded, while traditional PC hardware and high‑multiple SaaS names face a more mixed reaction.

6. The AI trade is rotating: Alphabet vs Nvidia, not AI vs non‑AI

The biggest narrative shift of the week is within the AI trade itself.

Recent reporting from major outlets highlights that: ^[31]

Alphabet (Google) has surged to fresh 52‑week highs, helped by news that Meta Platforms plans to spend billions installing Google’s custom TPUs in its data centers starting in 2027, and may rent AI chips via Google Cloud even sooner.
Nvidia, by contrast, fell about 2.6% on Tuesday, extending a difficult month for the stock as investors question how long its near‑monopoly grip on AI accelerators can last.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still eked out gains, suggesting that investors are rotating within AI‑linked names, not abandoning the theme altogether.

TipRanks and other pre‑market commentary explicitly frame today’s rally in futures as “AI‑led”, with mega‑cap tech, cloud providers, and platform companies leading early gains. ^[32]

For traders heading into the open, the key takeaway is that AI exposure is no longer a simple Nvidia proxy:

Cloud hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft,
AI infrastructure suppliers such as Dell and NetApp, and
Certain software and data‑platform names

are increasingly central to the trade, even as chip leaders remain volatile around earnings, competition headlines, and demand forecasts.

7. Retail, travel and airlines: Thanksgiving as a real‑time consumer stress test

Holiday dynamics are also shaping today’s setup.

Retail: big moves, bigger questions

Tuesday’s session saw huge moves in U.S. retailers:

Kohl’s jumped more than 40% after reporting a surprise quarterly profit and raising guidance.
Abercrombie & Fitch surged a similar amount as strong results in key segments offset weakness elsewhere. ^[33]

These earnings helped push a major U.S. retail index sharply higher, even as data showed softer consumer spending and weaker confidence. That combination—strong execution at individual retailers amid a cautious macro backdrop—will keep consumer stocks in focus again at today’s open.

Travel & airlines: record Thanksgiving traffic

Analyst commentary and transportation forecasts point to near‑record or record Thanksgiving travel volumes in the U.S., with particular strength in air travel as the industry moves past the disruptions of this year’s government shutdown. ^[34]

At the same time, storms moving across the Midwest and into the East are expected to cause regional delays, which could introduce short‑term noise for airlines and travel stocks even as the underlying demand picture remains strong. ^[35]

Names like United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines are being highlighted by some analysts as beneficiaries of robust travel demand, but they remain sensitive to fuel prices, weather headlines, and any surprise guidance around holiday bookings. ^[36]

8. How to frame today’s U.S. stock market open

Putting all of this together, here’s how the landscape looks as the opening bell approaches on Wednesday, November 26, 2025:

Directionally, futures are positive, supported by an AI‑led tech bounce, better‑than‑feared earnings from Dell and others, and strong risk appetite into a holiday‑shortened week. ^[37]
Macro‑wise, markets are all‑in on a December rate cut, with Fed funds futures now heavily skewed toward easing after softer retail sales, tame producer prices, and a drop in consumer confidence. The risk is that any upside surprise in today’s data—especially inflationally sensitive releases—could challenge that narrative. ^[38]
Sector rotation is the real story beneath the indexes:
- AI winners are evolving (Alphabet, data‑center and storage plays) while prior leaders like Nvidia remain choppy. ^[39]
- Enterprise IT looks bifurcated: Dell and NetApp are rewarded for clear AI and cloud angles; HP gets punished for cost cuts and cautious guidance. ^[40]
- Retail and travel names are trading as live barometers of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping and travel season. ^[41]

For traders and investors, the opening phase today is likely to be about digesting the data dump, watching how AI‑linked tech behaves after its latest reshuffle, and reading Deere’s and Li Auto’s numbers as signals on industrial and EV demand. With a holiday closure tomorrow and only a half‑day on Friday, price action could be more compressed—and more headline‑sensitive—than usual.

Nvidia stock slumps on Google's AI chip growth news, how to prepare your portfolio for December