Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE: RSG), one of North America’s largest waste and recycling companies, heads into the holiday season with pressure building on two fronts:
- Labor relations, as Seattle‑area Teamsters Local 174 calls a critical “contract demands” meeting with Republic workers in December, and
- Wall Street expectations, as analysts reaffirm bullish ratings but warn that 2026 could be a slower “rebasing” year for growth.
At the same time, fresh industry research and new valuation pieces are forcing investors to ask whether Republic’s aggressive recycling and sustainability push still offers good value at today’s share price.
Here’s what’s moving Republic Services on November 26, 2025 — and how labor, growth and valuation are intersecting around the stock.
Teamsters Local 174 Calls December Contract Demands Meeting With Republic Services
On November 25, Teamsters Local 174 in the Seattle area posted a notice titled “Republic Services Demands Meeting: 12/20/25 9AM” on its website. The message calls on all Local 174 members working for Republic Services to attend a contract demands meeting on December 20, 2025 at 9 a.m. 1
While the full text of the notice isn’t publicly accessible to all readers, the headline and snippets shared via the local’s site and social channels make two things clear:
- The meeting is specifically targeted at Republic Services employees covered by Local 174, and
- It is intended to coordinate contract demands ahead of upcoming bargaining.
Local 174, based near Seattle, represents a wide range of transportation and solid‑waste workers in the region. 2
Why this matters after the 2025 nationwide sanitation strike
The December 20 meeting comes just weeks after Teamsters declared victory in what they called the largest sanitation strike in decades against Republic Services. A series of escalating actions that began in July saw thousands of sanitation workers across the U.S. walk off the job or honor extended picket lines, disrupting trash collection in major markets. 3
By mid‑October, the union announced it had reached new agreements at all striking Republic locations, including Boston, Chicago, Southern California, Washington state and Georgia, securing wage gains and stronger protections for workers. 3
The new Local 174 meeting suggests:
- Local‑level unfinished business: Even after national wins, individual locals may be preparing to push for stronger language on wages, safety, staffing, or scheduling in their own contracts.
- Ongoing labor risk for Republic: Investors who thought the October settlement closed the book on labor unrest may need to factor in a longer, more incremental phase of bargaining and enforcement.
Republic Services has not issued a public statement specifically about the December 20 Local 174 meeting. The company has previously said it is committed to bargaining in good faith and providing competitive pay and benefits for its frontline workforce.
Stifel Reiterates Buy, But Calls 2026 a “Rebasing Year” for Republic Services
On November 25, Stifel analyst Shlomo H. Rosenbaum reaffirmed a Buy rating on Republic Services, according to a note summarized by Investing.com. 4
The key message:
2026 is expected to be a “rebasing year” for Republic’s revenue and EBITDA growth, with performance likely at the lower end of the solid‑waste peer group.
What Stifel is watching
According to the note, Stifel’s thesis hinges on several factors: 4
- Slower relative growth in 2026
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth may trail some peers as the company digests recent investments and works through underperforming segments.
- Environmental Solutions segment improvement
- This business unit has been a drag on results, but Stifel expects performance to improve in the second half of 2026, helping margins stabilize.
- Recycled commodity pricing
- Volatile prices for recycled materials have been a headwind; Stifel is cautiously optimistic that prices could stabilize in coming quarters, offering a tailwind rather than a drag.
Even with the softer 2026 outlook, Stifel still views Republic as an attractive multi‑year compounder, supported by recurring revenue, high barriers to entry, and growing demand for environmental services. 4
Recent Q3 results underpin the thesis
Stifel’s note also referenced Republic’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, where the company: 4
- Posted adjusted EPS of $1.90, beating analyst estimates of $1.78
- Delivered revenue of $4.21 billion, slightly below the $4.25 billion consensus
- Continued to grow revenue year over year by a little over 3%
That combination — profit beat, slight revenue miss — fits the “steady, not spectacular” mold that many analysts see for Republic over the next year.
Fresh Today: Wall Street Consensus Holds at “Moderate Buy”
If Stifel is slightly cautious on 2026, the broader analyst community is still broadly positive.
A new report from MarketBeat, published November 26, 2025, finds that Republic Services currently carries a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from 27 analysts covering the stock. 5
Key points from that report:
- Rating breakdown
- 11 analysts rate RSG Hold
- 14 rate it Buy
- 2 assign a Strong Buy rating
- Average 12‑month price target: about $250.45 per share, implying mid‑teens upside from recent levels around $217
- Valuation snapshot
- Recent share price: ~$217
- Market cap: ~$67.2 billion
- Trailing P/E: about 32x earnings
- Dividend yield: ~1.2% on a quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share
The same report reiterates Q3 highlights — EPS of $1.90 vs. $1.78 expected, and revenue of $4.21 billion vs. $4.25 billion estimated — and notes return on equity of about 18% and net margin just under 13%, with full‑year EPS projected around $6.86. 5
In other words, analysts see Republic as:
- A quality, defensive growth story,
- Trading at a premium valuation,
- With moderate upside if the company executes on its growth and cost‑control plans.
“Does Republic Services Offer Real Value?” – Valuation Debate After Recycling Expansion
Away from rating changes, a Yahoo Finance piece this week — summarized on SwingTradeBot — asks a pointed question:
“Does Republic Services Offer Real Value After Recent Recycling Expansion?” 6
According to that summary, the article notes that:
- RSG shares are up about 2.5% over the past week,
- Down roughly 3.6% over the past month,
- Up around 7.5% year to date, and
- Roughly flat over the last 12 months (about –0.2%). 6
The piece highlights Republic’s expanded recycling capacity and sustainability investments as a key reason investors are watching the stock, but suggests the market may already be pricing in a lot of that future growth.
Independent valuation data backs up that concern:
- Forward P/E around 29–30x as of November 26, 2025, according to GuruFocus — high relative to the average U.S. market multiple and many industrial peers. 7
From an investment perspective, that combination — strong fundamentals plus a premium valuation — means any disappointment in volumes, commodity prices or margin expansion could trigger volatility, even if the long‑term story remains intact.
Industry Context: Market Study Flags Republic as Key Waste Collection Player
The debate over Republic’s valuation is also happening against a backdrop of steady growth in the global waste and recycling industry.
A new market‑research report on the Industrial Waste Collection Services market was released today (November 26) by Worldwide Market Reports and published via openPR. The study projects growth through 2032, driven by rising industrial output, stricter regulations, and demand for professional waste handling across manufacturing, construction, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. 8
Among the key global players named in the report:
- Waste Management Inc.
- Veolia Environnement
- Republic Services Inc.
- Clean Harbors, Stericycle, GFL Environmental and others 8
For investors, this reinforces the idea that:
- Republic Services is not just a trash hauler, but a core infrastructure provider in an industry with durable, regulation‑supported demand.
- Competition remains intense, with multiple large, well‑capitalized players pursuing similar growth avenues, including industrial waste, environmental services and advanced recycling.
Labor Relations vs. Shareholder Returns: What To Watch Next
The juxtaposition on November 26 is striking:
- On the ground, workers represented by Teamsters Local 174 are gearing up for a December 20 contract demands meeting focused specifically on Republic Services. 1
- On Wall Street, analysts like Stifel and Goldman Sachs are either reaffirming or initiating Buy ratings, pointing to long‑term cash‑flow growth from environmental solutions, renewable natural gas and advanced recycling. 4
- Across the sector, new research continues to frame waste and recycling as a growth market through 2032, with Republic firmly in the top tier. 8
That tension between labor and capital will be a key theme for 2026. A few concrete issues to monitor:
- Outcome of the Local 174 meeting (Dec. 20)
- Do members move toward strike authorization, or simply refine bargaining priorities?
- Does Republic respond publicly with its own framing on wages, safety and staffing?
- Follow‑through on Environmental Solutions turnaround
- Stifel’s optimism assumes improvement in the second half of 2026. Investors should watch for specific margin and volume benchmarks for that segment. 4
- Recycling commodity prices
- Stabilizing paper and metal prices could support Republic’s recycling earnings; renewed volatility could undercut the bullish case tied to sustainability investments. 4
- Valuation discipline
- With the stock trading around 30x forward earnings and roughly 32x trailing EPS, upside depends on continued mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit earnings growth and the company’s ability to avoid major disruption from labor disputes or regulatory changes. 5
Key Numbers for Republic Services (as of November 26, 2025)
- Ticker: NYSE: RSG
- Share price: ≈ $217 (closed up ~0.9% on Tuesday) 5
- Market cap: ≈ $67 billion 5
- Trailing P/E: ~32x
- Forward P/E: ~29–30x 7
- Dividend: $0.625 quarterly / $2.50 annually (about 1.2% yield) 5
- Analyst consensus:“Moderate Buy”, 27 analysts (14 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Strong Buy) 5
- Average 12‑month price target: About $250–252 per share 5
- Next major labor milestone:Teamsters Local 174 contract demands meeting, December 20, 2025 at 9 a.m. 1
Bottom Line: A High‑Quality Franchise With Real‑World Friction
Republic Services remains one of the core franchises in U.S. waste and recycling, with:
- Strong free‑cash‑flow generation,
- A growing footprint in recycling and environmental solutions, and
- A broad base of long‑term municipal and commercial contracts.
But November 26, 2025 underlines that the story is not risk‑free:
- Workers are organizing, meeting and, when necessary, striking to secure better wages, benefits and safety protections.
- Analysts are supportive but mindful that 2026 may bring slower growth and continued segment‑level challenges.
- Investors are being asked to pay a premium multiple for a business that, while stable, will have to navigate both labor and commodity cycles carefully.
For now, the market seems comfortable with that trade‑off. Whether that remains true will depend heavily on what happens between the union and the company on and after December 20 — and how strongly Republic can convert its recycling and sustainability investments into durable, profitable growth.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
