Canada Stock Market Today (Nov. 26, 2025): TSX Pushes Past 31,000 as Gold Miners and Fed Rate‑Cut Hopes Power Early Trade

In the first minutes after Wednesday’s opening bell, Canada’s stock market picked up exactly where it left off. The S&P/TSX Composite Index opened higher and quickly traded above the 31,000 level for the first time ever, extending a three‑day, near‑1,000‑point surge as investors bet on interest‑rate cuts and crowd back into commodities and financials. ^[1]

TSX Today: Fresh Records and a Break Above 31,000

Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index (^GSPTSE) started Wednesday’s session modestly higher, up about 0.2% at the official open, around 30,958, according to a brief from Reuters. ^[2]

By 9:31 a.m. ET, the early momentum had built: the index was up roughly 0.3% at about 30,994, with gains led by gold miners and broad optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates in December. ^[3]

MarketScreener’s open brief notes that within the first few minutes the TSX was up more than 110 points and trading above 31,000 for the first time, giving traders a new psychological milestone to focus on after several record closes this month. ^[4]

Wednesday’s early advance builds on a powerful two‑day rally:

Monday, Nov. 24: TSX jumped 1.5% to close at 30,604.35, driven by a 5.5% surge in technology shares and a more than 5% jump in the materials group as gold rallied. Barrick Gold soared about 8.5% after resolving a long‑running dispute with the government of Mali over its Loulo‑Gounkoto mining complex. ^[5]
Tuesday, Nov. 25: The index added another 296 points (about 1%) to close at a new record 30,900.65, powered by consumer staples and discretionary names—most notably Alimentation Couche‑Tard, which gained nearly 5% after beating quarterly profit expectations. ^[6]

In other words, before Wednesday’s open the TSX had already climbed roughly 1,000 points in just three sessions, and the early push above 31,000 suggests the bulls are in no hurry to step aside.

Fed Rate‑Cut Bets and Strong Metals Underpin Canada’s Rally

Pre‑market trading set the tone. Futures linked to the TSX were up about 0.23% earlier on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s record close. The move was tied to a run of softer‑than‑expected U.S. economic data that has sharpened market conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. ^[7]

That shifting rate narrative is doing two important things for Canadian equities:

Supporting risk assets broadly
Lower expected borrowing costs are positive for equities in general, especially growth and “long‑duration” sectors such as technology and parts of industrials. The TSX tech space—already energized by AI‑related hardware and services—has been one of the big winners this week. ^[8]
Boosting commodities and a resource‑heavy index
The same Fed hopes are feeding a weaker‑dollar, lower‑yield backdrop that looks favorable for gold and base metals. Reuters notes that gold has pushed to around a two‑week high, with copper prices also climbing, adding fuel to the TSX’s materials complex. ^[9]

With energy and materials now accounting for about 32% of the TSX’s market capitalization, the combination of firm metals prices and stabilizing oil is particularly powerful for Canadian stocks. ^[10]

Gold Miners, Consumer Names and Banks in the Spotlight

Gold and materials still in charge

Wednesday’s open was “buoyed by gains in gold mining stocks,” according to Reuters’ early session report, underscoring how central the sector remains to Canada’s equity story. ^[11]

On Monday, Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX) jumped about 8.5% to a record closing high after announcing a comprehensive settlement with Mali that restores full operational control over its Loulo‑Gounkoto mines. ^[12]
That Mali deal removed a major geopolitical overhang and highlighted why global investors often treat Canadian gold names as “levered safe havens” when macro risks rise and central banks lean dovish. ^[13]

With gold still firm and Fed expectations skewed toward easing, it’s no surprise that gold miners are again among the early leaders on the TSX today.

Consumer names riding the soft‑landing narrative

Tuesday’s fresh record close was driven in part by consumer staples (+2.6%) and consumer discretionary (+2.2%)sectors, as investors priced in a 2026 scenario of slightly faster growth supported by infrastructure spending and lower rates. ^[14]

Alimentation Couche‑Tard (TSX: ATD) climbed nearly 5% on Tuesday after beating profit forecasts in its latest quarter; several brokerages have since raised their price targets. ^[15]
Convenience retail, grocery and other defensive consumer names remain central to Canada’s “soft landing plus infrastructure” thesis, and traders appear comfortable paying up for predictable cash flows while rates drift lower.

Big banks quietly reinforce the move

Canada’s heavyweight banking sector—anchored by Royal Bank of Canada (TSX: RY), TD (TSX: TD), CIBC (TSX: CM), BMO (TSX: BMO) and others—has also helped to pull the index higher.

Recent analysis from independent research houses highlights: ^[16]

Improving sentiment around Royal Bank as its shares trade above key moving averages and analysts gradually upgrade their views.
A recovery in financial‑sector operating profits: Statistics Canada data show corporate operating profits rose 3.8% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q3 to about C$200 billion, with financial industries up 6% to C$96 billion, aided by lower loan‑loss provisions and stronger fee income. ^[17]

With banks still heavily weighted in the TSX 60, incremental positive news in the sector can have an outsized impact on the headline index.

2026 Outlook: Strategists See More Upside – But Warn of a Correction

Today’s early action is unfolding against the backdrop of a new Reuters equity‑strategy poll focused specifically on the TSX. ^[18]

Key takeaways from that survey of 20 strategists and portfolio managers:

The median forecast calls for the S&P/TSX Composite to rise nearly 5% to about 32,125 by the end of 2026, above its mid‑November record around 30,828.
By mid‑2027, the index is projected to approach 33,925, implying roughly 11% upside from Monday’s level near 30,604.
The TSX is already up about 23–24% year‑to‑date, putting 2025 on track to be its best annual performance since 2009 if gains hold. ^[19]

What’s driving the medium‑term optimism?

Trade and tariff clarity: While tariffs remain in place in the U.S., strategists argue that the abrupt spring tariff shock has given way to a more predictable regime, allowing companies and investors to plan. ^[20]
AI‑driven demand for Canadian resources: Massive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure worldwide is expected to keep demand strong for Canadian energy and metals, especially copper and battery‑related materials. ^[21]
Easier monetary policy: The Bank of Canada has already cut its key policy rate to around 2.25%, a more than three‑year low, with analysts expecting additional easing ahead. ^[22]

However, the same poll and a broader global survey from Reuters flag a clear downside risk: more than half of analysts expect a correction in the coming months as valuations stretch and the “AI trade” gets crowded. ^[23]

For TSX investors, that likely translates into choppier trading around these new record levels—even if the medium‑term path is still upward.

Deal Flow and Earnings: Active Tape on TSX and TSXV

Beyond the index‑level moves, Wednesday’s news flow shows an active capital‑markets and small‑cap landscape across the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSX Venture Exchange.

Notable developments today include: ^[24]

Brookfield (TSX: BN)
- Completed a C$250 million offering of Class A Preference Shares, Series 54, strengthening its capital stack and adding another income‑oriented instrument to the Canadian preferred share market.
Volatus Aerospace (TSXV: FLT)
- Closed a combined public and private equity financing worth roughly C$26.4 million, underscoring ongoing investor appetite for aerospace and drone‑related growth stories.
Silver Tiger Metals (TSXV: SLVR)
- Finalized a C$40 million bought‑deal share offering, a sizeable raise for a junior miner that underscores how supportive the current environment is for precious‑metals exploration and development names.
MineHub Technologies (TSXV)
- Upsized a brokered LIFE offering to about C$6.3 million, with proceeds earmarked for accelerating its resource‑tech platform.
Boardwalktech Software (TSXV: BWLK) and EMERGE Commerce (TSXV: ECOM)
- Reported quarterly results, offering fresh read‑throughs on enterprise software demand and Canadian e‑commerce trends.
Blue Ant Media (TSX: BAMI)
- Released fourth‑quarter and full‑year results, adding a media and streaming angle to today’s earnings slate.
TMX Group outlook
- A separate Reuters story highlights that TMX Group, operator of the TSX, expects a stronger IPO pipeline into 2026, pointing to deals like Rockpoint Gas Storage’s C$704 million listing and growing Canadian interest after a robust U.S. IPO year. ^[25]

Taken together, the deal flow and earnings updates reinforce the idea that Canada’s public markets are very much “open for business” as rates fall and risk appetite recovers.

Profits Are Strong – But Tariffs Still Loom in the Background

While today’s price action is being driven mostly by rate expectations and commodities, there’s important macro context in fresh Canadian data.

A new report drawing on Statistics Canada numbers shows: ^[26]

Operating profits for Canadian corporations rose 3.8% in Q3 to about C$200 billion, the fastest quarterly growth in two years.
Profits are up 5.1% year‑over‑year, with financial institutions and manufacturing leading the way.
Financial‑sector profits climbed about 6% to C$96 billion, helped by healthier credit conditions and stronger non‑interest income, while manufacturing saw a C$1.4 billion rebound, driven in part by motor vehicle and trailer manufacturing.

At the same time, the report warns that many smaller import‑dependent businesses are still being squeezed by the current tariff regime, even as larger corporations successfully pass along higher costs. ^[27]

That tension—strong headline profits alongside uneven pain from tariffs—helps explain why markets are simultaneously hitting records and nervously watching Washington for any shift in trade policy.

Macro and Data Watch: What TSX Traders Are Eyeing Next

With Canadian GDP by industry and other detailed releases scheduled around this period, and a crammed U.S. data calendar that includes durable goods, personal income and spending, jobless claims, new home sales and the Fed’s Beige Book, traders will be parsing every print for confirmation that the “soft‑landing plus rate‑cuts” narrative still holds. ^[28]

Globally, a separate Reuters poll of strategists suggests most major equity indexes—including Canada’s TSX—should see further gains into 2026, but at a slower pace than 2025’s outsized rally and with a meaningful risk of a correction along the way. ^[29]

What It All Means for Investors Watching Canada’s Stock Market Today

For investors tracking “Canada stock market today” and TSX‑linked ETFs or individual names, the early read on Nov. 26, 2025 looks like this:

The TSX is adding to record highs and probing above 31,000 in early trade. ^[30]
Gold miners, consumer defensives and big banks remain key leadership groups. ^[31]
The rally is firmly rooted in expectations of rate cuts, strong commodity demand and robust corporate profits, but analysts are increasingly vocal about the risk of a pullback after a near‑24% year‑to‑date gain. ^[32]

In the very short term, the main questions for the rest of today’s session will be:

Does the TSX hold above the 31,000 mark, turning a breakout into a new trading range?
Do gold miners and rate‑sensitive sectors like tech and real estate keep their leadership, or does profit‑taking emerge after such a steep three‑day climb?
How do incoming U.S. data and any fresh central‑bank commentary reshape market expectations for December and early‑2026 policy moves?

For now, though, the story is simple: Canada’s stock market is still in full‑blown risk‑on mode, and Wednesday’s early trade shows that investors are willing to keep pushing the TSX higher as long as rate‑cut hopes, firm metals prices and resilient corporate profits stay in place.